Flames Future: Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

[polak]

Originally Posted by Robbob

(In regards to Bennett)
Exactly. His numbers are pretty similar to Drouin. Is Drouin a bust?

He also has worse numbers than Nail Yakapov did at this point in his career. Comparing young players to other players by point totals is stupid.

My biggest concern with Bennett and why I have been doubtful about his projections this year is that he hasn't fixed any of his issues from last year, not even improved them in anyway. He's still making the same poor choices as he was last year and still stubbornly tries to do stuff that worked in Junior.

Compare Bennett with what we have seen from Tkachuk in his short career and ignore points. You can tell that Tkachuk's game is better suited for the NHL than Bennett. I feel like people see moments where those junior moves work and they get all excited cause they look cool but I've seen far more moments where Bennetts play frustrates me than when he impresses me.

So in my opinion, when you take into consideration the probabilities of how many players actually improve dramatically vs. how many players might improve a bit but don't really deviate too much from their regular output, I lean towards cutting my expectations for a player.

Before you freak out, that is all assuming that he's playing the same way he is now by this point next season. Still plenty of time for him to raise my hopes by showing improvement in the areas where he is currently struggling

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I know right? Just look at Scheifele, or Galchenyuk, or Kevin Hayes, or Benn, or Jeff Carter, or...

All who have improved every year.

My whole premise is Bennett playing like he is now by this time next season, meaning no progression.

And on top of that, I bet the list of players who have posted relatively the same numbers every year is a lot longer than that.

Make me a list of young Flames that started around 30-40 points for their first three years and then became stars on the same team. I'll wait.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Scheifele: 34, 49, 61 point seasons
Benn: 41, 56, 63, 33 (Lockout), 79, 87, 89 Point seasons
Carter: 42, 37, 53, 84 .....


Those guys all showed great progression. Galchenyuk fits in there too. Hayes the jury is still out but looks to be progressing.

You might want to check their ages as to when that progression, taking the big jump, took place.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by polak

Seriously? If in his 3rd season he's looking set for another 30 point season you're still going to pencil him in as a likely top center?

Or at that point is it far more likely that he's probably going to be a 40-ish point player? Not saying it's impossible that he doesn't break out at 22 or older but at what point to you start to lower your expectations?

You can't build a team expecting that all players reach their peak potential. That's how you get Darryl Sutter and his "This team has the most 20 goal scorers in the league" garbage.

If he isn't showing any progression by next year then yeah I think you start to say he may not be the number 1 guy. But this is only his second season, and he is struggling along with the whole team. There's a reason people worry about the sophomore jinx. There are a lot of players who go through it, heck Iginla had a very subpar second season and was able to pull it back up so I think fans can afford Bennett a bit of a leash before writing him off as not having star potential.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You might want to check their ages as to when that progression, taking the big jump, took place.

Does age really matter or is it NHL seasons?

How many guys play a ton of years in the NHL and then take their big jump?

[polak]

Originally Posted by belsarius

If he isn't showing any progression by next year then yeah I think you start to say he may not be the number 1 guy. But this is only his second season, and he is struggling along with the whole team. There's a reason people worry about the sophomore jinx. There are a lot of players who go through it, heck Iginla had a very subpar second season and was able to pull it back up so I think fans can afford Bennett a bit of a leash before writing him off as not having star potential.

Totally agree. Read my original post. I said we won't really know what we have until next season.

This is hopefully just an anomaly.

[Enoch Root]

Okay, so the argument is that IF Bennett doesn't progress, then he hasn't progressed and we should lower our expectations?

I totally agree.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Okay, so the argument is that IF Bennett doesn't progress, then he hasn't progressed and we should lower our expectations?

I totally agree.

Bingo called me out for saying that if Bennett doesn't show improvement by next year he will probably be more of a middle six guy. Just defending my view.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Does age really matter or is it NHL seasons?

How many guys play a ton of years in the NHL and then take their big jump?

Of course age matters.

Some do make their big jump after a few seasons. Some don't. People are individuals.

But saying someone's progression is a concern because, 20 games into their 20 year old season, they haven't taken a big jump, playing on a team that has really struggled, is by any rational account, ridiculous.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Of course age matters.

Some do make their big jump after a few seasons. Some don't. People are individuals.

But saying someone's progression is a concern because, 20 games into their 20 year old season, they haven't taken a big jump, playing on a team that has really struggled, is by any rational account, ridiculous.

Agreed, but if you play 3 or 4 years at a consistent level the chances of a 'break out' is very small. Which is what polak was talking about, but obviously getting ahead of himself.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Agreed, but if you play 3 or 4 years at a consistent level the chances of a 'break out' is very small. Which is what polak was talking about, but obviously getting ahead of himself.

I agree that, at a few seasons, chances of a breakout becomes far more remote.

But so far we haven't had a single season.

[Johnny Rotten]

Bennett's not playing great, but I'm not sure he deserves quite this much criticism. Backlund had some tough spots early in his career.

[Igottago]

I'm not at all happy with this season but still glass half full. This team has a great collection of young players. Even if this season is lost the future is still bright. The problems with this team are correctable (coaching).

I also think however that expectations need to rise. Brian Burke used to talk about a rebuild having to crawl, walk, then run...I think the team should be at the jogging stage now, not languishing in the basement like they are. Not sure why they still seem to want to be in the teaching phase despite having a good mix of vets and young players. I said it before but this coaching staff came into this season like it was the first year of the rebuild, not like they want to take a promising group to the next level.

[dash_pinched]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Great thread IMO and really encapsulates much of the discussion in the other threads.

To me the key is "half" which is just about right. I see things I like and things I don't like. I think I'm critical by nature so I'm more likely to look for things that I would like to improve but doesn't mean I'm not optimistic.

Like it or not I think we are all in with this core and this management team. If they don't get it done, you almost end up starting again.

I would be more glass full if they didn't look so bad on the ice. Their record is not a mirage so guess I'm a little more half empty until they start playing better.

This post pretty much sums up my feelings, but I'm still bullish regarding the Flames future. I wasn't crazy about the GG coaching hire though and until I see better results on the ice, I think that's Treliving's biggest mistake to date.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Okay, so the argument is that IF Bennett doesn't progress, then he hasn't progressed and we should lower our expectations?

I totally agree.

Not sure about Polak's argument, my position is not the same as his. My argument is that AS Bennett's development as a center is ignored in favor of only Monahan's development, we should lower our expectations of Bennett and put our eggs into the Monahan basket, whatever that may be.

Right now Mark Jankowski is being developed as a center better than Bennett. Yes, I'd rather see Bennett in the AHL than third line left wing, where he's neither gaining offensive confidence as a forward playing with Chiasson and Stajan against NHLers nor is he learning his responsibilities at his natural position.

I can't think of any franchise center who played regularily on the 3rd line, particularily at wing at that. One or the other, occasionally, sure. Never both. This isn't about Bennett's talents for me. It's about the likely outcome of his development. There is no commitment to his development. Bennett is effectively behind Gaudreau and Tkachuk on the depth chart at LW, and he's apparently behind Stajan, Backlund, and Monahan at centre. Somewhere along the way his development was discarded in favor of.. I'm not sure what, because it ain't wins.

As for my posts going downhill this year, it's too bad you feel that way but I am simply calling it like I see it. This team won't go anywhere unless they either commit fully to actually rebuilding (as Feaster did) or worse, they blow it up (which I don't trust this management to do well). As is we're on a treadmill, albeit a bottom five treadmill. I can take anything as a sports fan except the treadmill. This team is hitting the same treadmill the Maple Leafs did under Burke. They didn't improve their long term prospects until Burke, Carlyle, and Nonis were all gone.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Half full.
Being an optimist is how I choose to live.

Life is always a lot better when you look at things as an optimist.

When you wake up every day, you have two choices. You can either be positive or negative; an optimist or a pessimist. I choose to be an optimist. It's all a matter of perspective.

Harvey Mackay

[Mass_nerder]

I'm half full because I feel like a lot of our good players are slumping under the sweeping changes from the off-season, but are still fundamentally good players.
In addition, we have a lot of good (not great) prospects coming soon that I feel will really help us be successful for an extended period.

If our best players all continue to slump for the entire season, I may re-evaluate my position though.

[polak]

The tunnel vision on this forum is ridiculous.

What I wrote:

Should Bennett not show any improvement by this point next season, I think that will lead me to believing he will be more of a middle 6 player.

What the blindly faithful see:

Should Bennett not show any improvement by this point next season, I think that will lead me to believing he will be more of a middle 6 player.

[Enoch Root]

This thread, like so many others recently, illustrates exactly what so many people were saying 5 years ago: that Canadian fans simply don't have the patience for a rebuild.

[nik-]

All is lost

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

I'm half full because I feel like a lot of our good players are slumping under the sweeping changes from the off-season, but are still fundamentally good players.
In addition, we have a lot of good (not great) prospects coming soon that I feel will really help us be successful for an extended period.

If our best players all continue to slump for the entire season, I may re-evaluate my position though.

I look at this season as being stuck in neutral. Coaching changes and a new system to learn has stalled the rebuild process by a year.