Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink

[nik-]

I'm also a Flames fan.

WAY TO MISS THE JOKE CALGARYBLOOD

[The Fonz]

Re: McDavid's next contract

I don't see any scenario where he signs for less than 10.5M AAV.
Fans on the Oilers board are referencing the Crosby deal, thinking McDavid will sign for a similar AAV. Problem with that is Crosby's deal benefited very much from the prior CBA, and doesn't look near as pretty under the new CBA's standards.

Crosby 12yrs/8.7M AAV
Years 1-8 AAV = 10.8M

That's in line with what the other premier players in the league are getting under this CBA.

Kopitar - 10.0M AAV
Kane - 10.5M AAV
Toews - 10.5M AAV

Crosby, Kopitar, and Toews, have won 7 of the last 8 cups. If GMs think McDavid is the next Center to fit that mold, and I think they do, I'd expect numerous offersheets worth $11M+ to be sent to his agent.

Doesn't help that GMs league-wide despise the way the Oiler's acquired him.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Re: McDavid's next contract

I don't see any scenario where he signs for less than 10.5M AAV.
Fans on the Oilers board are referencing the Crosby deal, thinking McDavid will sign for a similar AAV. Problem with that is Crosby's deal benefited very much from the prior CBA, and doesn't look near as pretty under the new CBA's standards.

Crosby 12yrs/8.7M AAV
Years 1-8 AAV = 10.8M

That's in line with what the other premier players in the league are getting under this CBA.

Kopitar - 10.0M AAV
Kane - 10.5M AAV
Toews - 10.5M AAV

Crosby, Kopitar, and Toews, have won 7 of the last 8 cups. If GMs think McDavid is the next Center to fit that mold, and I think they do, I'd expect numerous offersheets worth $11M+ to be sent to his agent.


Doesn't help that GMs league-wide despise the way the Oiler's acquired him.

McDavid gets paid and stays in Edmonton is my predication.

He gets a lot of money and is worth a lot of money.

If Flames fan's need to resort to attacking this contract to feel good compared to the Oilers- we are in trouble.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

McDavid gets paid and stays in Edmonton is my predication.

He gets a lot of money and is worth a lot of money.

I agree, Oil would match any offer-sheet sent his way.

Originally Posted by Kavvy

If Flames fan's need to resort to attacking this contract to feel good compared to the Oilers- they are in trouble.

I would attack this contract even if the Flames won the 2 cups between now and then. I'll always feel good attacking the Oilers... the Flames success or lack thereof is irrelevant.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

This. He's a fantastic player, but he's not Sidney Crosby. Not even close. People forget how good Crosby was. 102 points as an 18 year old! CM wasn't even close to being on pace for that. Crosby is in a league of his own. McDavid is in the same tier as Ovechkin, Tavares, Toews, Kane. Still an elite tier and the real deal. Still among the best in the world. Not Sidney Crosby though.

McDavid's pace last season was actually better than what Crosby did in his rookie season.

Crosby in 05/06:

ES p/60- 2.84
PP p/60- 6.14

McDavid last year:

ES p/60- 2.99
PP p/60- 6.31

McDavid never could have reached Crosby's raw numbers though. Crosby played 459 minutes on the PP that year. Last year's leader in PP time was Giroux with 300 minutes.

I think that's reasonable evidence that McDavid may be the next Crosby. He's tied for the league lead in points in his second season. The hype is justified.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

McDavid's pace last season was actually better than what Crosby did in his rookie season.

Crosby in 05/06:

ES p/60- 2.84
PP p/60- 6.14

McDavid last year:

ES p/60- 2.99
PP p/60- 6.31

McDavid never could have reached Crosby's raw numbers though. Crosby played 459 minutes on the PP that year. Last year's leader in PP time was Giroux with 300 minutes.

I think that's reasonable evidence that McDavid may be the next Crosby. He's tied for the league lead in points in his second season. The hype is justified.

Over 48 games with a massive break in the middle.

His production was steadily decreasing towards the tail end. Numbers likely would've been a bit more modest over a full season. Not sure he would've stayed above a PPG either the way he was trending.

Lots and lots and lots of example of players in small samples producing at absurd rates. Over 82 is a different deal entirely, particularly for rookies who tend to burn out a bit.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Over 48 games with a massive break in the middle.

His production was steadily decreasing towards the tail end. Numbers likely would've been a bit more modest over a full season. Not sure he would've stayed above a PPG either the way he was trending.

Lots and lots and lots of example of players in small samples producing at absurd rates. Over 82 is a different deal entirely, particularly for rookies who tend to burn out a bit.

Well for sure anything could have happened over another 35 games. I'm not denying that, but NEB said Mcdavid wasn't even on pace to match Crosby's rookie season.

He was.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

McDavid's pace last season was actually better than what Crosby did in his rookie season.

Crosby in 05/06:

ES p/60- 2.84
PP p/60- 6.14

McDavid last year:

ES p/60- 2.99
PP p/60- 6.31

McDavid never could have reached Crosby's raw numbers though. Crosby played 459 minutes on the PP that year. Last year's leader in PP time was Giroux with 300 minutes.

I think that's reasonable evidence that McDavid may be the next Crosby. He's tied for the league lead in points in his second season. The hype is justified.

Keep in mind McDavid played one more year of junior than Crosby did. He was almost 19 when he entered the league, whereas Crosby was barely 18. That makes a difference at that age. McDavid's hype certainly is justified, I agree. My only argument is that he's not Crosby. Anyone who says he isn't elite is fooling themselves. The only reasonable debate is if he's as good as Crosby, which in my mind he is a hair below him.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Well for sure anything could have happened over another 35 games. I'm not denying that, but NEB said Mcdavid wasn't even on pace to match Crosby's rookie season.

He was.

He was on pace for 88 points last year (I even rounded up). Crosby had 102 with a year less development. Not really close in my mind.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

He was on pace for 88 points last year (I even rounded up). Crosby had 102 with a year less development. Not really close in my mind.

05/06 had 14 players score 90 points or more. Last year had one.

That's why I compared scoring rates. 05/06 was a very different NHL than the one we have now.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

05/06 had 14 players score 90 points or more. Last year had one.

That's why I compared scoring rates. 05/06 was a very different NHL than the one we have now.

Fair point. I still don't believe he's quite as good as Crosby but it's really a pointless argument. He's going to be the best player in the world regardless of if he's better than Crosby.

[AcGold]

He'll never be as good as Crosby. Mcdavid is like Pavel Bure 2.0. Super fast first few strides but he will never have the puck control and strength in the corners that Crosby has.

In interviews about who is the hardest to get off the puck players nearly unanimously say Crosby because of his tree trunk legs. Mcdavid can't keep up his pace as he's currently carrying the team. He'll inevitably start to fade as he's not built like Iginla or Crosby to carry the team on his back for 82 games.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

I agree, Oil would match any offer-sheet sent his way.



I would attack this contract even if the Flames won the 2 cups between now and then. I'll always feel good attacking the Oilers... the Flames success or lack thereof is irrelevant.

Yes they will, but I'm willing to bet any money that he gets a RFA offer of maximum dollars short length from more then one team.

They either might get him

Or it pushes McDavid towards UFA more quickly and hurts Edmonton's ability to spend money elsewhere on their team.

I tend to think that a team like the Sabres will do it just because long memories.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by AcGold

He'll never be as good as Crosby. Mcdavid is like Pavel Bure 2.0. Super fast first few strides but he will never have the puck control and strength in the corners that Crosby has.

In interviews about who is the hardest to get off the puck players nearly unanimously say Crosby because of his tree trunk legs. Mcdavid can't keep up his pace as he's currently carrying the team. He'll inevitably start to fade as he's not built like Iginla or Crosby to carry the team on his back for 82 games.

Crosby was kind of a p#### in his first year or two. McDavid could end up being a beast physically like Crosby, you never know.

I wouldn't jump to too many conclusions about Mcsavior's career projections yet, since he has all the tools to be as good as Crosby. Will he? I have my doubts.

It's been a few years so the memory could be hazy, but Ovi and Crosby's first few years in the NHL were seriously something special. McDavid's first couple years have been great, but not exactly the phenomenal stuff we saw from those two guys. Again though, anything could happen, given that kid's toolbox.

[AcGold]

His toolbox isn't that large though. He has good lateral movement at high speed and he has good acceleration but I don't see his playstyle ever getting close to Crosbys. They are built radically different, super fast acceleration and strength are generally opposite tools as the fast twitch muscles aren't that great for overall stability and strength.

Crosby is built like a tank/Iginla with intense lower body strength where Mcdavid is very much like Pavel Bure with insane acceleration but no strength in the corners. To have that acceleration you need looser ankles and softer feet, to hold off 230 pounders you need some insanely strong ankles and brutish lower body.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Crosby was kind of a p#### in his first year or two. McDavid could end up being a beast physically like Crosby, you never know.

Is that the case?

I have a hazy memory of stories about his physical training & conditioning even in junior. I might be off base, but I don't think the term "p#ssy" is a correct description on Crosby's physical conditioning, even early on.

[MrMastodonFarm]

McDavid is a talented player, but he's no Pavel Bure, few are.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Is that the case?

I have a hazy memory of stories about his physical training & conditioning even in junior. I might be off base, but I don't think the term "p#ssy" is a correct description on Crosby's physical conditioning, even early on.

I meant he's was a p#### in the sense that he whined about every damn thing instead of fighting through it. He was never physically weak or lazy.

Once he realized his strength, he shut up and powered through everything and turned into the best center in the league.

[undercoverbrother]

Are we talking about this Bure:

[AcGold]

^upper body means very little in the corners, Bure had a larger upper body than Crosby but Crosby has freak tree trunk legs.

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

McDavid is a talented player, but he's no Pavel Bure, few are.

Well nobody can skate like Bure did but I think it's a good analogy, both players are fast in a straight line but lack the physical strength to dominate the corners like the most elite players in the world.