The 2016 US American Election Thread

[IliketoPuck]

Can someone explain to me what the FBI is doing right now? I have a tough time believing in coincidences this close to the election.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/ar...n-of-marc-rich

[peter12]

Now Democrat supporters are turning into the conspiracy theorists.

[calumniate]

The reason why this election is making so many people crazy is that the checks and balances that used to be in place can now in most cases be casually ignored by the party in power. And oddly, Obama has contributed to this problem of undermining what was built into the political system decades ago.

The unfortunate thing here is I don't think either candidate will really care about any of this.. it's a dangerous and reckless situation all around. I tried looking around for some context.. this article is pretty on the ball if you ask me:
http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...hecks-balances

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by peter12

Now Democrat supporters are turning into the conspiracy theorists.

I'm a casual outside observer, and think both candidates are awful.

As an outside observer, however, it appears to me that the FBI's timing of disclosure is weighted against one candidate more so than the other.

[direwolf]

Interesting chat with the 538 staff on whether or not the Dems should be panicking.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...mocrats-panic/

[GirlySports]

Can we postpone this election let Obama stay for 1 more year and restart the nomination process for the 2017 Presidential Election?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by calumniate

The reason why this election is making so many people crazy is that the checks and balances that used to be in place can now in most cases be casually ignored by the party in power. And oddly, Obama has contributed to this problem of undermining what was built into the political system decades ago.

The unfortunate thing here is I don't think either candidate will really care about any of this.. it's a dangerous and reckless situation all around. I tried looking around for some context.. this article is pretty on the ball if you ask me:
http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...hecks-balances

I completely agree, and glad to see someone link to a NR piece, which has basically been a bastion of anti-Trump think-pieces almost since the beginning, and has kept on smashing charges into Trump's flank.

Yeah, the real issue here is that literally nothing matters. It is not White Knight vs Black Knight. It is deeply flawed candidate vs deeply dangerous candidate.

That's why the Clintonian partisan nonsense blows me away. This woman is not a hero! She is a pure political opportunist who is using the moral and political chaos of this election to take power. How can anyone not be blown away by this cynicism?

Look at her statements on gay marriage. By her current rhetoric, she would have been a deplorable homophobe as recently as 2013!

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...roblem/372717/

[peter12]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Interesting chat with the 538 staff on whether or not the Dems should be panicking.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...mocrats-panic/

Taleb Nicholas Nassim has been a constant critic of 538's misuse of statistics for the sake of popular appeal throughout this entire cycle.

It is political rhetoric with the veneer of mathematical certainty.

As someone with a very basic understanding of statistics, I tend to ignore everything about Nate Silver, and his little band of meritocratic spinsters.

Of course if you took away fivethirtyeight, most posters in this thread would have very little to read.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by peter12

Taleb Nicholas Nassim has been a constant critic of 538's misuse of statistics for the sake of popular appeal throughout this entire cycle.

It is political rhetoric with the veneer of mathematical certainty.

As someone with a very basic understanding of statistics, I tend to ignore everything about Nate Silver, and his little band of meritocratic spinsters.

Of course if you took away fivethirtyeight, most posters in this thread would have very little to read.

Nate Silver's method is pretty solid, he's got history on his side from the last two elections. His book "The Signal and the Noise" was a pretty good read on forecasting.

[rumy]

Originally Posted by peter12

Now Democrat supporters are turning into the conspiracy theorists.

What is this world coming to!?

[Drak]

Nate Silver > Peter12

[peter12]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Nate Silver's method is pretty solid, he's got history on his side from the last two elections. His book "The Signal and the Noise" was a pretty good read on forecasting.

I have no idea as I don't understand statistics, and particularly, probability. Most people don't, but given its rhetorical weight of forecasting, these days, most people pretend to.

It feels good when the numbers tell you that you are on the right side of History.

[Flash Walken]

What's a meritocratic Spinster?

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by peter12

I have no idea as I don't understand statistics, and particularly, probability. Most people don't, but given its rhetorical weight of forecasting, these days, most people pretend to.

It feels good when the numbers tell you that you are on the right side of History.

Future generations tell us who was on the right side of history. Regardless of which horse you're pulling for there is nothing wrong with 538's methodology. People attacking 538 and Nate Silver typically dislike his results, haven't seen one person yet argue successfully against his formula.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Interesting chat with the 538 staff on whether or not the Dems should be panicking.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...mocrats-panic/

natesilver: If I can be a bit pedantic, the race isn’t that close. But it’s highly uncertain.

clare.malone: Pedant away.

natesilver: It’s uncertain, in part, because of the risk of a popular vote-Electoral College split. And, in part, because there are various reasons to think polling error could be high this year, such as the number of undecided voters.

You can see those forces at play in the recent tightening. Clinton hasn’t really declined very much in these latest polls. But she was at only 46 percent in national polls, and that left a little bit of wiggle room for Trump.

If we start to see Clinton creep up to 47 percent or 48 percent, Democrats can begin to panic less.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

What's a meritocratic Spinster?

A bunch of really smart people who instead of acknowledging the difficulty of explaining, let alone predicting the real world, write cheesy blog posts as part of a larger business model of selling punditry in a very competitive market place.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Future generations tell us who was on the right side of history. Regardless of which horse you're pulling for there is nothing wrong with 538's methodology. People attacking 538 and Nate Silver typically dislike his results, haven't seen one person yet argue successfully against his formula.

That's because you haven't looked.

Nassim Taleb (author of Black Swan and Anti-fragility) has been very critical of 538's predictions this election cycle.

And many others. Many others.

I don't have a background in statistics, so I can't speak to his math, but I do have a background in rhetoric, communications, and spin, and that is pretty much all 538 is, which is fine, but people should know that they are basically taking everything from a single source.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Drak

Nate Silver > Peter12

Yeah, the guy is totally loaded, and I am not at all.

[Looch City]

Can't wait for Kanye West in 2020.

[Swift]

https://twitter.com/marissaaevans/st...302592/photo/1

Classy!