10-26-2016, 03:22 PM
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#661
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
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New poll from AP puts Clinton +15, 48-33 amongst likely voters.
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-conten...e_Campaign.pdf
Which looks like a huge outlier, but here's a list of all of the current non-tracker polls (copied from elsewhere, I haven't verified). Still looks like an outlier, but not by any means a crazy outlier.
AP: Clinton +15
Suffolk: Clinton +9
Democracy Corps: Clinton +12
ABC*: Clinton +9
CNN: Clinton +5
PPP: Clinton +6
Reuters*: Clinton +6
Morning Consult: Clinton+7
ARG: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +7
Blomberg: Clinton +9
CBS: Clinton +9
Monmouth: Clinton +12
NBC: Clinton +10
Fox: Clinton +7
Pew: Clinton +9
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10-26-2016, 08:54 PM
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#663
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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I think the Florida state poll is likely what is driving trumps improved chances
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10-26-2016, 09:29 PM
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#664
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
I think the Florida state poll is likely what is driving trumps improved chances
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Yeah, that caused a big swing. Which makes sense, I mean it definitely creates some uncertainty. For both the two polls that are showing a tighter race in Florida, I think it's the first time in the field. I'd like to see some other pollsters who have been in field release more, and see if they're showing any trends.
NYT Upshot is going to have a daily tracker of North Carolina, seeing if they can use the detailed voter rolls and daily updates of who has voted, to give an accurate projection of the state:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...e=sectionfront
(use incognito mode to get past NYT article limits).
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10-26-2016, 09:45 PM
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#665
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Neat! I think I'd like to be a pollster.
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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10-26-2016, 10:07 PM
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#666
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
Neat! I think I'd like to be a pollster.
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Sure, if you'd like 3 and a half years of being totally ignored, and then six months of intense hate mail. (But yeah, it definitely strikes me as a fun profession.)
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10-27-2016, 07:45 AM
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#667
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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When Trump was talking about his African-American (as in only one), he wasn't kidding.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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10-27-2016, 01:26 PM
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#668
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Pretty awful group of polls for Trump. All from Q
GA: Trump 44, Clinton 43, Johnson 8
IA: Trump 44, Clinton 44, Johnson 4
NC: Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 5
VA: Clinton 50, Trump 38, Johnson 4
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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10-27-2016, 01:35 PM
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#670
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Piggybacking off that Q poll, here's where it gets real ugly for Trump. Early voting numbers from the polls:
GA: Clinton 48, Trump 42
IA: Clinton 61, Trump 27
NC: Clinton 62, Trump 34
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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10-27-2016, 02:00 PM
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#671
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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I've seen quite a few negative polls for Trump this morning, and yet he continues to tick upwards in the 538 forecast, which is odd. He's now at 19% in polls plus, up 2 percentage points from yesterday, possibly due to Florida and Nevada being fairly tight at the moment.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...d=rrpromo#plus
Last edited by direwolf; 10-27-2016 at 02:07 PM.
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10-27-2016, 02:15 PM
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#672
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
I've seen quite a few negative polls for Trump this morning, and yet he continues to tick upwards in the 538 forecast, which is odd. He's now at 19% in polls plus, up 2 percentage points from yesterday, possibly due to Florida and Nevada being fairly tight at the moment.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...d=rrpromo#plus |
Weird. That's no good.
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10-27-2016, 02:22 PM
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#673
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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It's Ohio and Arizona that have moved the needle.
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10-27-2016, 02:25 PM
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#674
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
It's Ohio and Arizona that have moved the needle.
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I guess that's not that bad since we can pretty much rule out Arizona anyways.
I wish Ohio would wake up.
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10-27-2016, 02:29 PM
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#676
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Ohio is in an unusual spot, it's used to being the center of attention and one of the most vital states to a candidate's odds of winning. This year it's pretty much irrelevant, the Dems have more or less given up on it because they don't need it at all (Trump obviously desperately needs it). For Hillary it's all about Florida and NC, if she wins one of those Trump is pretty much finished.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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10-27-2016, 02:30 PM
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#677
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
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Dixie Strategies looks suspect by name alone.
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10-27-2016, 02:32 PM
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#678
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Let the bed wetting resume!
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to photon For This Useful Post:
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10-27-2016, 02:33 PM
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#679
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
Let the bed wetting resume!
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Totally. Stresses me out completely.
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10-27-2016, 02:34 PM
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#680
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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What did 538 look like (snap shot) of this time 4 years ago?
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