Trump speech:
Trump says he's going to introduce a constitutional amendment to impose term limits; 6 years house, 12 years senate. Good luck.
Also a ban on White House and Congressional officials fund raising during business hours.
This is great policy that would have made a fantastic convention speech.
One poll is obviously big trouble for Trump. The other is hilarious, and I swear I am not making up the third place "candidate" in Idaho. Oh and that Idaho poll is before the GTBTP tape so yeah...
AZ: Clinton 43, Trump 38, Johnson 7, Stein 4 (Arizona Republic)
ID: Trump 40, Clinton 30, Some Other Candidate 11, Johnson 10 (Idaho Politcs weekly)
Mormon corridor lol. I mean I suppose it's true isn't it? Even if it sounds kinda funny. It's also why Trump is losing Arizona, Mormons to their credit are not selling their souls unlike Evangelicals.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
One poll is obviously big trouble for Trump. The other is hilarious, and I swear I am not making up the third place "candidate" in Idaho. Oh and that Idaho poll is before the GTBTP tape so yeah...
AZ: Clinton 43, Trump 38, Johnson 7, Stein 4 (Arizona Republic)
ID: Trump 40, Clinton 30, Some Other Candidate 11, Johnson 10 (Idaho Politcs weekly)
Bloomberg poll has Clinton up 9 whether two-way or four-way races. Even worse for Trump is that in the two-way race for the first time in the poll Clinton is winning:
Male voters
voters without a college degree
white females
AND she still maintains a huge lead in female voters overall.
Clinton winning 93% of those that lean democrat, Trump only 85% that lean republican. Independents are split 39-38 with clearly a bunch undecided (but I don't think at this stage you are going to see a big break for Trump over Clinton).
I'm enjoying how on 538's update page, they're now showing how each update affects the projection. (ie. when two national polls came out earlier this morning including one showing Clinton up +15, that moves the projection +0.4 toward Clinton.) It also shows just how hard it is for Clinton to actually increase her odds in the projection... a poll showing her up 9 in Virginia caused her to lose 0.2 in the projection.
They did mention in an article on their site that once into the high 80's getting higher becomes increasingly difficult. A 7% gap might be 85%, but to get to 95% might need a 25% gap.
__________________ Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
Wow - I don't usually follow the election, but how often does a state go to an independent?
It'd be the first time since George Wallace in 1968.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
With this run of polls you gotta think Hillary supporters are going to strategically vote McMullin in Utah (and Idaho too probably). Trump losing Utah would be a massive humiliation for him, and he cannot afford to lose any electoral college votes, so even if losing Utah is only 6 votes it hurts a lot.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
So what's happened to Clinton in Georgia? For a period leading up to the first debate, IIRC, she was leading there, but since then, Trump has pulled ahead and stayed by a margin of 60%+/- to win (per 538).
It seems a little odd ball given that traditionally red states like Arizona are now in play and leaning blue. It's like they flirted with the idea of Clinton early on but have gone back to their traditional GOP home even in the face of a disastrous Trump campaign.
Demographics aren't as favorable in Georgia as they are in Arizona for the Dems. But Georgia (and Texas) will both be purple states in the next 2-3 cycles. GOP seems content to keep alienating Latinos, and they keep growing as a voting block.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
Demographics aren't as favorable in Georgia as they are in Arizona for the Dems. But Georgia (and Texas) will both be purple states in the next 2-3 cycles. GOP seems content to keep alienating Latinos, and they keep growing as a voting block.
It seems that the GOP were at least somewhat counting on Rubio (or perhaps less so a Spanish speaking Jeb) to bring over some of the Latino vote and reverse the tide, but well...you know who happened.
So what's happened to Clinton in Georgia? For a period leading up to the first debate, IIRC, she was leading there, but since then, Trump has pulled ahead and stayed by a margin of 60%+/- to win (per 538).
It seems a little odd ball given that traditionally red states like Arizona are now in play and leaning blue. It's like they flirted with the idea of Clinton early on but have gone back to their traditional GOP home even in the face of a disastrous Trump campaign.
IMO we don't have great polling data on Georgia. 538's weighting is based heavily on one Landmark Communications (average firm) poll that found him +6, but other than that, there's a few low-rated pollsters, an Ipsos one that was done over 3 weeks, and a Google Surveys 50 states one, which has a lot of problems.
NYT has it as the next most likely swing state to flip for Clinton (60% R) after Ohio (54% D), more likely than either Iowa or Arizona (both 62% R).
The only time Clinton was leading in 538's projection was actually in August. I wonder if the Khan family fallout resonated more there than more recent discussions.
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