I would also add the ratings fell 20% from the first debate to the second one, and I strongly suspect a lot of people were turned off by it and likely we see another 20% decline (at least) for the third debate. So it's an even smaller audience, likely to be composed of mostly made up voters or politicos. So the risk factor is even lower.
Yeah, and that means that policy-discussion matters less, and 'wow moments' matter more, because most americans are only going to see is whatever moments go viral in the following days. So I think it's a slightly bad payoff for Clinton in terms of risk-reward. Her good policy-based moments will be largely lost, Trump's general awfulness will also just be noise at that point with so many other awful moments in the previous debates plus away from the debates. The only thing that really moves the needle either way is if Trump actually pinned her on something or she accidentally said something horrible.
That said, I don't think she can afford to skip it if her goal is to win a huge mandate plus the senate plus maybe the house. Although I would see if you could try to make Trump skip it. I mean, let's say by some crazy coincidence the rumoured Trump Apprentice N-word tapes hit the media the day before that last debate. Or, if Trump does okay in the last debate and the media narrative starts to shift, the tape drops the next day.
I don't take it for granted that the Democrats have such a tape. I do think it's likely that they have at least one more round in the proverbial chamber.
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If she does skip out on the debate it would only take seconds for the media to go into a "does she have a serious illness, is she fit for office?" speculation extravaganza. Donald would have a epic comeback tweeting that he was wrong when he said she was a fighter and did not give up. The toxic media spotlight would then swing onto Hillary and if it stays on her until election day Trump may still have a slim chance of winning.
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At San Antonio fundraiser today, Trump praised the Spurs then said, "Wouldn't it be great if the country were run like that?"
The Spurs of course are well know for being primarily made up of foreigners who are taking American jobs. And Pop hates Trump too.
Beyond simply the players, their head coach also believes strongly in international cooperation and spends time in most summers meeting with and learning from his international peers. The team also features the first woman full-time assistant coach of any major North American sport league (someone who, of course, totally earned that position on merit). It also relies heavily on statistics and analytics, even when those analytics go against the coach's idea of the way the game should be played.
A Trump presidency is more likely to be like the James Dolan Knicks, where other GMs were able to actively bait him into bad trades, he had absolutely brutal return on investment, decisions were made based on how high-profile they were rather than on any sort of analytics, and potential short-term impact was highly prioritized over long-term planning.
Last edited by octothorp; 10-11-2016 at 02:35 PM.
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Another internal email of Bannon instructing his staff that the long term goal was for Ryan to be gone by spring. Thinks Ryan is part of a global conspiracy to establish a world government.
So remember, the party of Christian family values has in the past few weeks had its nominee and his surrogates suggest all kinds of ####ed up, non-Christian #### to try and justify a clear charlatan. May God have mercy on their souls (actually nah, punish them severely)
That's the Trump camp party line is that this is bragging about conquests.
IT isn't. Everyone would agree bragging about conquests or who they want to be a conquest occurs in locker rooms. Groping and getting away with it because he's a star is not something that is talked about as it's sexual assault. And if it talked about you need to find yourself a new team to hang out with. And I think most people understand the difference despite guys liek Giuliani, Carson and Baio (lol) saying otherwise.
And it sums up the state of the Trump campaign that that is the quality of surrogates he has right now. It's very much scraping the bottom of the barrel.
At least Pence isn't fanning the flames of revolution, not on the same page as his boss again!
Quote:
Amid cheers from the crowd, an attendee told Pence she was deeply afraid of voter fraud in the presidential election and suggested extreme measures.
“Our lives depend on this election. Our kids’ futures depend on this election,” she continued. “For me personally, if Hillary Clinton gets in, I myself am ready for a revolution.”
Donald Trump's vice presidential running mate immediately pushed back on that sentiment. “No, don’t say that,” he said, urging her to pull back from the “revolution” comment.
I mean, let's say by some crazy coincidence the rumoured Trump Apprentice N-word tapes hit the media the day before that last debate. Or, if Trump does okay in the last debate and the media narrative starts to shift, the tape drops the next day.
I don't take it for granted that the Democrats have such a tape. I do think it's likely that they have at least one more round in the proverbial chamber.
The Democrats will drop whatever they have after the debate unless something catastrophic happens to Clinton. You don't drop your best opposition stuff until it's too late for your opponent to respond. Stuff like that has a real, but very short-lived, effect on polling.
The only time you drop really good opposition stuff before the end is if you're losing and you need to "change the narrative." Clinton's never been behind, her team has never had a reason to drop its best stuff.
Whatever they've got - and I'm not predicting the fabled 'Apprentice Tapes' - it will be coming out in a flood between the 20th and Halloween.
Trump surrogate Boris Epshteyn on Clinton speech in Florida: ..sounded pretty boring talking about mosquitoes and metabolism and all that stuff..
Jake Tapper: Alright well those mosquitoes carry the deadly Zika virus in Florida so probably people in Florida were paying a little bit more attention.
Decent hit ad by Trump team. Reminds voters how poorly her policies have gone in Iraq, Syria, and Lybia, and then plays to her weak health and closes with the infamous BB picture.
He would do well to amp up the ad spending ten-fold.
That's reassuring. I don't understand why people don't believe the old fatass draft dodger will keep the world safe from places he wouldn't be able to find on a map.
Really though, he's got to do something. That whole "I'm a sexual predator" angle doesn't seem to be going away. I doubt this will change the story, but he ain't giving up, and that's gotta count for something!
