[Rumour] UPD: Friedman: Thinks a deal will get done between Gaudreau and the Flames in the next week

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I heard this said before, but it really means nothing without context. First, barring a financial downturn that sees salaries and the cap decrease significantly, that number is always going to go up. And Second, who are those other players, when were their negotiations, and how do they compare to JG?

I don't think the number is always going to go up, this isn't the NBA/MLB/NFL we're talking about here. I would bet on years of relative stagnation before I bet on the kind of growth we witnessed from 2006-2014.

In the US, the NHL is still searching for that golden goose TV contract. It hasn't happened yet, personally I'm doubting it ever will. As far as ticket revenue goes in the US, there is tons of opportunity obviously, but that's all it's likely to ever be. Each year, there's only one SC champ and only four teams going on 'playoff runs'. Not good odds when there are about 10 American teams that live and die by how successful the on-ice product is.

Interest is tapped out in Canada, there's probably nowhere to go but down barring Toronto 2/Hamilton/Quebec City, and even then there is a limit to how far their revenue will go as far as pushing up the cap goes. The Canadian TV contract Rogers signed is probably as expensive/more expensive than the one that will follow it, given the documented woes of that deal. The exchange rate is an X factor but ultimately it's too random to be counted on to ever stay at par or higher with the US dollar for any length of time. I wonder what the cap would've looked like from 2006-2013 with the loonie at 0.75 the whole time? This is something that I feel that GMs around the league will be more cognizant of going forward. If it ever dropped to 0.50-0.60, the effects on cap teams would be catastrophic.

Basically, what it boils down to is that the NHL is still a gate driven league so unless you see ticket prices increasing in perpetuity, there's zero reason to think the cap will keep going up at even a moderate rate. Even though we have seen just that happen over the last decade, does not mean that prices will continue to rise at the same rate. There is a limit to what they can charge and still maximize their revenue. IMO, they are fast approaching that point.

The growth the NHL has seen from 2006-present has been remarkable, but I don't see the league continuing that rapid rate of growth. I really doubt we see even a 90m cap within 10 years, 80m might even be a stretch. However, as I mentioned earlier, the exchange rate is the X factor. If you are predicting modest, continued growth of the cap you are essentially betting that the Loonie is going to eventually be on par with, or higher than the USD, and I'm not sure that is a bet I would take.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Flaming Choy

So is the pressure to "not setting precedence/inflating salary for no-rights players" sort of similar to not going "full-Oilers" and inflate the second contract value ala the Penner offersheet inflating RFA contracts?

That's how I interpret it. I have no desire to see the Flames become ''at fault'' for changing the landscape again. The owners have no desire to be the ones who ruin it for everyone else, and I can't say I blame them.

Everyone makes fun of the Oilers and Lowe for inflating 2nd year contracts. Burke has been outspoken about it many times at how pissed the entire league was at them. No way in hell the Flames ownership group sets a new precedent.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

No one in the organization even considered it as an ancillary benefit that if Gaudreau breaks out that burning that first year gives them exclusive negotiating rights?

If (and this is pure speculation) they saw that as an additional benefit to the organization, I wouldn't really have a problem with that. They're still going to give Johnny the biggest 10(2) contract ever, which is more than fair.

Hindsight.

At the time, everyone was worried about getting Johnny under contract and not have him go back for a year. I really don't think anyone was thinking, jeez, if he is a top 10 scorer two years from now we can really hold him over a barrel. Nobody saw this exact circumstance coming.

[taxbuster]

Because one of my favourite numbers is 1/7 (.142857142857...) I think it'll be a contract at $7,142,857 AAV. Just enough to sweeten the pot for JG, not enough to burn the Flames.

I really don't care as long as they both get 'er done without hard feelings on both sides. That would be a shame if they burned the relationship in doing this deal.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by saillias

Friedman thinks there are outside pressures on the Flames to not give in. Because of Johnny's lack of rights.

Friedman called Treliving and asked him about Lewis Gross' comments. Brad paused and stopped himself before saying anything but Elliot could tell he wanted to speak.

Friedman also thinks players are more inclined to take these negotiations to the brink today. They feel as a group they will be locked out again and escrow takes a big slice of their pie. So they are less willing to give "hometown discounts" again this is Friedman's take, not mine.

Ding ding ding ding ding.. this folks, right here, is why you can't give him 8.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by Major Major

So does being upset imply it's not true? I would believe it's not true, but if he's upset and it's true, then I'd question that logic.

The real reason I think this gets done soon is Gio TBH. I know people question the Gio cap as a rule, and I do too, but its gotta be pretty tough not to respect the hell out of that guy. If I'm Jonny's parents, I'd be thrilled to have my kid learning how to be a pro from that guy.

Gio had bad reports about his requests, and those reports made Gio look bad to many. Right there, he's got someone to talk to. How do you sit across the room from the guy who won the humanitarian award of the league and took a discounted contract and not say, you know what, it's time to play hockey? We all know that Jonny is a good man and his parents who are influential are also good and want what's best for him. We all know what is best for him is here. Gross told Jonny and his family, give me the time and trust to get you the best longterm deal possible. There is no doubt in my mind that his time is running out and Jonny is about to take this thing over.

I didn't mind the article personally. Francis isn't a bad writer and I actually enjoy a lot of his stuff, including this piece, which was filled with obvious truths. His personality is grating as hell though.

I was more commenting on another poster's concerns that this might influence negotiations. Maybe Johnny was annoyed, but I don't think either side will allow it to impact anything. It was just something some guy wrote after all. If that's the kind of thing that rustles Johnny's jimmies, I sure as hell hope he doesn't know about this place.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by kermitology

Ding ding ding ding ding.. this folks, right here, is why you can't give him 8.

$8 million was just their starting point for negotiations. No one ever starts where they think the number will actually land. I would be shocked if they aren't intent on landing in that Tarasenko range.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

$8 million was just their starting point for negotiations. No one ever starts where they think the number will actually land. I would be shocked if they aren't intent on landing in that Tarasenko range.

Yeah, I agree. But for the people who just want him signed for 8x8 or whatever, this is why you can't.

[EldrickOnIce]

Curious who, if any, have previously been significant 10(2) C RFA's?

[bax]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Curious who, if any, have previously been significant 10(2) RFA's?

Friedman talked about Krug and Smith being in the same position in Boston two years ago. Essentially they both got one year deals with an "agreement" on new contracts the following off season

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by kermitology

Ding ding ding ding ding.. this folks, right here, is why you can't give him 8.

Why not? Is there something wrong with setting a precedent for elite 10.2 (c)'s? Its not like its a very common occurrence. And the Flames should be making decisions based on their own situation, not on pressure from other clubs.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by bax

Friedman talked about Krug and Smith being in the same position in Boston two years ago. Essentially they both got one year deals with an "agreement" on new contracts the following off season

IIRC he then said this won't happen with Gaudreau because again both sides want a long term deal.

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Why not? Is there something wrong with setting a precedent for elite 10.2 (c)'s? Its not like its a very common occurrence. And the Flames should be making decisions based on their own situation, not on pressure from other clubs.

I think it's probably because teams fought like hell to have this hammer in the CBA, and ignoring a key advantage in a negotiation would be really silly. Unless Fortune 500 companies do it differently?

[TheScorpion]

Friedman said on the radio this morning that he expects a contract to be signed this week.

[Five-hole]

I'm a bit surprised at how concerned the rest of the league (i.e. owners, management) are about this contract. How many players in Johnny's position, that being two years, RFA, no offer sheet eligibility, are also going to be elite players?

The fact that there are basically no comparables shows you how how infrequently this situation arises. Why is it so important to everybody else? This isn't a routine RFA deal like Penner got.

I'm also a bit annoyed that the Flames have to have their best player sitting on the sidelines through training camp (and god forbid, beyond) to fight a fight for the rest of the league.

[kyuss275]

I'm not sure why Gross is mad about the Francis article? He was not wrong. Seems like Gross did ask for $8.25 million. In this day and age Gross had to know that the # he asked for would get out eventually . I guess he could be mad that Francis for the first time in his life got it right.

Also if i heard it correctly i think the flames put up a more than fair initial offer of $6.4. Flames had to know that he was not going to sign on the dotted line with the first offer. It's a very fair starting point.

I really like how Brad wanted to say something but bit his tondue instead. Feaster would have told everything about the negotiations and probably tell the media where Johnny hides his spare key for his apartment.

[Enoch Root]

was Saad a 10(2)?

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

was Saad a 10(2)?

I don't think so, he had played 3 full years prior to the trade.

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

Hindsight.

At the time, everyone was worried about getting Johnny under contract and not have him go back for a year. I really don't think anyone was thinking, jeez, if he is a top 10 scorer two years from now we can really hold him over a barrel. Nobody saw this exact circumstance coming.

Ha ha, okay I'm clearly not getting any traction with this thing. It was speculation anyway.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

I'm a bit surprised at how concerned the rest of the league (i.e. owners, management) are about this contract. How many players in Johnny's position, that being two years, RFA, no offer sheet eligibility, are also going to be elite players?

The fact that there are basically no comparables shows you how how infrequently this situation arises. Why is it so important to everybody else? This isn't a routine RFA deal like Penner got.

I'm also a bit annoyed that the Flames have to have their best player sitting on the sidelines through training camp (and god forbid, beyond) to fight a fight for the rest of the league.

The rest of the league includes the Flames so it's not like this some noble act of self-sacrifice. This honestly shouldn't be surprising at all. For the same reason the NHLPA loathes home town discounts and pressures players to not take them, the NHL doesn't want one Lowe mucking up RFA contracts for everyone else.

Everybody has to play in the same sandbox, of course the rest of the league doesn't want the Flames to piss in it. The second contract has already been destroyed thanks to the Oilers, the NHL doesn't want a second Alberta team to make it worse.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

I'm a bit surprised at how concerned the rest of the league (i.e. owners, management) are about this contract. How many players in Johnny's position, that being two years, RFA, no offer sheet eligibility, are also going to be elite players?

The fact that there are basically no comparables shows you how how infrequently this situation arises. Why is it so important to everybody else? This isn't a routine RFA deal like Penner got.

I'm also a bit annoyed that the Flames have to have their best player sitting on the sidelines through training camp (and god forbid, beyond) to fight a fight for the rest of the league.

Yeah, it's frustrating to have external parties trying to influence it. I like how it's fine when other teams escalate pay structures (looking at you Oilers) but when it is our turn, the Flames are held to a higher standard.

Make no mistake though, the NHLPA is likely trying to influence the Gaudreau situation too. Not a 10 (2) player, but what Gaudreau signs for could have an impact on Kucherov (or future 10 (2) players that have yet to emerge). You don't want to be the guy ruining it for the other guy.