[Rumour] UPD: Friedman: Thinks a deal will get done between Gaudreau and the Flames in the next week

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by photon

I wonder if players ever resent each other over big contracts. Because salaries are linked to revenue, and the cap is higher than revenue so players put money into escrow and only part of that is refunded, basically player getting a huge raise actually reduces the salary for everyone else.

Just playing around with the numbers, it looks to me like if Johnny gets a raise of $6 million dollars, that costs everyone else on the team thousands to over ten thousand dollars. If you're Bouma it'll cost you $4000+. If you're Sean or Gio $12,000+.

I assumed NHL salaries totaling $2.5 billion and revenues totaling $2.2 billion for about a 12% escrow with zero refund. The amounts change of course depending on the difference between those. I also assumed all else being equal, which it isn't. Johnny might get $6 million more this season but there's probably another player who made $4 million who is replaced by a $850k player.

Still interesting tho.

Something to distract myself with while waiting for a signing.

Good point. When Gio and Mon get smaller paycheques, they're probably like "Way to GO, Johnny!"

[ricardodw]

n/m

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Gaudreau had 5 goals by the end of November when the Flames were done for 2015-16 and building for the next year. After the pressure of being an NHL team was out of the way he put in 25 goals in his last 55 games.

He had 5 count them 5 even strength goals and 10 pts on the road in the whole season 39 games......

NOT Yet a proven 8M player.

I wonder how gaudreavertime explains away those home/away splits?

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I wonder how gaudreavertime explains away those home/away splits?

Logically. Surely you've looked at his home/road shooting percentages?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by photon

I wonder if players ever resent each other over big contracts. Because salaries are linked to revenue, and the cap is higher than revenue so players put money into escrow and only part of that is refunded, basically player getting a huge raise actually reduces the salary for everyone else.

Just playing around with the numbers, it looks to me like if Johnny gets a raise of $6 million dollars, that costs everyone else on the team thousands to over ten thousand dollars. If you're Bouma it'll cost you $4000+. If you're Sean or Gio $12,000+.

I assumed NHL salaries totaling $2.5 billion and revenues totaling $2.2 billion for about a 12% escrow with zero refund. The amounts change of course depending on the difference between those. I also assumed all else being equal, which it isn't. Johnny might get $6 million more this season but there's probably another player who made $4 million who is replaced by a $850k player.

Still interesting tho.

Something to distract myself with while waiting for a signing.

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Good point. When Gio and Mon get smaller paycheques, they're probably like "Way to GO, Johnny!"

Mony and Gio are signed so it doesn't affect their contracts at least for a bunch of years).

As for the others, there may be some of that depending on how management negotiates them ('we'd like to give you more but can't because Johnny..."). But generally I think the players like higher contracts because it raises the bar for everyone. I remember years ago when Theo kind of said "why do we have to make so much - how many houses do you need?" other players said STFU (of course when Theo's contract came up he sand a different tune).

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Logically. Surely you've looked at his home/road shooting percentages?

i'm not a huge stat guy, but what would that prove?

What would a lower away shooting percentage in isolation prove? That he was really unlucky on the road? That he generated less high scoring opportunity shots on the road?

[May 25, 1989]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Gaudreau had 5 goals by the end of November when the Flames were done for 2015-16 and building for the next year. After the pressure of being an NHL team was out of the way he put in 25 goals in his last 55 games.

He had 5 count them 5 even strength goals and 10 pts on the road in the whole season 39 games......

NOT Yet a proven 8M player.

I've posted that I agree Gaudreau needs better road stats but Jamie Benn only had 6 even strength road goals last year in 41 games.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

i'm not a huge stat guy, but what would that prove?

What would a lower away shooting percentage in isolation prove? That he was really unlucky on the road? That he generated less high scoring opportunity shots on the road?

He generated the same amount of scoring chances on the road. He was essentially unlucky on the road, and lucky at home (6% vs 20% shooting percentages)

[MrMastodonFarm]

Certainly there is a reason. Always amazed at how some of these stats are boiled to a bubbling froth then chalked up to luck.

[JurassicTunga12]

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

So are people here ready to accept the Gio cap is a thing?

Nope, not me.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Certainly there is a reason. Always amazed at how some of these stats are boiled to a bubbling froth then chalked up to luck.

You don't believe luck is a factor in small sample sizes?

[OmegaV4]

Originally Posted by JurassicTunga12

Great scene.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Gaudreau had 5 goals by the end of November when the Flames were done for 2015-16 and building for the next year. After the pressure of being an NHL team was out of the way he put in 25 goals in his last 55 games.

He had 5 count them 5 even strength goals and 10 pts on the road in the whole season 39 games......

NOT Yet a proven 8M player.

The Flames were holding a playoff spot as late as December...led by none other than Mr December Gaudreau.

http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/12/29...l-playoff-spot

As bad as the Flames were last year (mainly due to a a horrendous October), they were in contention for a playoff spot for a while, and Gaudreau was a big factor in why that came through. Until Ramo's freak injury in February which downed the season for good, the Flames were 25-25-3 at the time and 5 points away from a playoff spot.

As for Gaudreau's road record, that has long been the biggest argument against him, but he still had 78 points despite his road woes. What is he worth if he fixed his road issues. Even if his home output stays the same, and he doubles his road output, he would be at around 90 points.

At that amount of points, even 8 million seems low. While he may not yet be a proven 8 million player, we are talking about buying some UFA years here. A year or two from now, if Calgary was to do a bridge deal like the Habs did with Subban, the Flames would regret it big time. Great short term, horrible long term

Gaudreau is a franchise player. 7.5 million is the starting point even knowing his road woes. I just don't see him signing for anything less and this could be a long sit out situation.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

You don't believe luck is a factor in small sample sizes?

So an entire season is too small a sample size
But a 3 game tournament performance isn't?

[underclassman]

Originally Posted by Firebot

The Flames were holding a playoff spot as late as December...led by none other than Mr December Gaudreau.

http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/12/29...l-playoff-spot

As bad as the Flames were last year (mainly due to a a horrendous October), they were in contention for a playoff spot for a while, and Gaudreau was a big factor in why that came through. Until Ramo's freak injury in February which downed the season for good, the Flames were 25-25-3 at the time and 5 points away from a playoff spot.

As for Gaudreau's road record, that has long been the biggest argument against him, but he still had 78 points despite his road woes. What is he worth if he fixed his road issues. Even if his home output stays the same, and he doubles his road output, he would be at around 90 points.

At that amount of points, even 8 million seems low. While he may not yet be a proven 8 million player, we are talking about buying some UFA years here. A year or two from now, if Calgary was to do a bridge deal like the Habs did with Subban, the Flames would regret it big time. Great short term, horrible long term

Gaudreau is a franchise player. 7.5 million is the starting point even knowing his road woes. I just don't see him signing for anything less and this could be a long sit out situation.

I hope you're wrong about a long term sit out situation .

[polak]

If they're trying to low ball then I hope Johnny's agent takes it public.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by underclassman

I hope you're wrong about a long term sit out situation .

Ryan O'Reilly sat out for well over a month and was prepared to sit out for a long time until Feaster decided to pull that boneheaded offer sheet move. The Avalanche was abysmal that year at the start, and missing O'Reilly was a big factor. Subban sat out for 4 games and his signing was likely done because the Habs came out flying from the gates.

It will likely come down to how the Flames perform without Gaudreau. If the Flames are mediocre at the start of the season, you can bet that Gaudreau will wait for the Flames to budge before he will.

Again, hopefully all of this is wrong and as was mentioned in the prior thread, that the bones of the deal are in place, but until news comes out and there is a deal, all we can do is speculate.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

You don't believe luck is a factor in small sample sizes?

All season? Jiri already nailed you above, but an entire season is small but three games at the world cup, yuge?

And yes Polak, we know you're #TeamJohnny, but don't fret, it appears his agency is already taking to message boards.

[Cube Inmate]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

You don't believe luck is a factor in small sample sizes?

"Luck" does literally not exist.