Friedman: Gaudreau negotiations will be put on hold during World Cup

[FlamesNation23]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Gaudreau (8M) - Monahan (6.375M) - Chiasson (.8M)
Shinkaruk (.863M) - Bennett (.925M) - Brouwer (4.5M)
Ferland (.825M) - Backlund (3.575M) - Frolik (4.3M)
Bouma (2.2M) - Stajan (3.125M) - Vey (.7M)

Giordano (6.75M) - Brodie (4.65)
Jokipakka (.9M) - Hamilton (5.75M)
Wideman (5.25M) - Engelland (2.916M)
Smid (3.5M)

Elliot (2.5M)
Johnson (1.7M)

$72,405,400

$594,600 in cap-space.

Gaudreau at 8M is not an overpayment.

If we were getting 8 UFA years then yes 8 mil is not an overpayment, but this is not the case. RFA years are worth less than UFA years which is why you are seeing really good young players signing for around 6 mil. He will probably end up getting paid around 6.7 mil for 5 years and then around 7.2 for 2-3 UFA years which would put the total cap hit around 6.9-7M which I think is fair.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Gaudreau at 8M is not an overpayment.

Twelve players have cap hits over $8M. Their collective resumes are substantially more impressive than outscoring Sean Monahan by 18 points over the last two seasons.

Which objectively, is all Gaudreau has done.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Vulcan
Assume an over payment of $8M and we have no room for 23 players.

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Gaudreau (8M) - Monahan (6.375M) - Chiasson (.8M)
Shinkaruk (.863M) - Bennett (.925M) - Brouwer (4.5M)
Ferland (.825M) - Backlund (3.575M) - Frolik (4.3M)
Bouma (2.2M) - Stajan (3.125M) - Vey (.7M)

Giordano (6.75M) - Brodie (4.65)
Jokipakka (.9M) - Hamilton (5.75M)
Wideman (5.25M) - Engelland (2.916M)
Smid (3.5M)

Elliot (2.5M)
Johnson (1.7M)

$72,405,400

$594,600 in cap-space.

Gaudreau at 8M is not an overpayment.

That's 21 players not 23, so we don't have a forward back up.

and you missed Bollig

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

He has a pretty point. It's possible the most overpaid "second contract player" in the league might actually be Dougie Hamilton, and most still anticipate him being a bargain in a few years.

Second contract players, regardless how proven, like Klingberg, Klefbom, Larsson, Ekblad, Tarasenko, Seguin, Tavares, Hall, OEL, Ennis, represent strong value relative to performance. About the only bad contracts given to players like in this age range are the Sbisa-type deals which make simply no sense to anyone with eyes.

Third/Fourth contracts are the real cap killer. Toews, Seabrook, Stamkos, Brown, Kessel, Giordano, Byfuglien, Chara, Boychuk, Subban, Voracek, Brouwer, Lucic, Eriksson. On a smaller scale we could even have avoided Bouma's bad deal if we gave him term instead of a bridge a few years back. Term on 23-29 players won't hurt you. Term on 30+ players is a death sentence.

There are two problems with an argument like this.

1) You have made a list, with the implication that all of the players in the list have similar, or relatively equal value. Tarasenko may not be good value. Tavares is, because he has a nice low cap hit. Some of those players have cap hits under $5M. They are not comparables to Tarasenko's $7.5M and certainly do nothing to prove that overpaying Gaudreau would be okay.

2) Your list conveniently ignores other 2nd contracts that aren't good value. Contracts like Brodin, Eberle, RNH and others.

I'll say it again: ALL overpayments will contribute to cap problems. Being a 2nd contract, and a player being 23 years old, doesn't magically exempt them from that.

Also, for the love of god, let the Brouwer thing go already. You are going full Ricardodw on this. And you never go full Ricardodw.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Twelve players have cap hits over $8M. Their collective resumes are substantially more impressive than outscoring Sean Monahan by 18 points over the last two seasons.

Which objectively, is all Gaudreau has done.

Gaudreau was sixth in NHL scoring last year, and everyone knows it was not a fluke.

Tarasenko put up:

19 points in 38 games (.5 PPG)
43 points in 64 games (.67 PPG)
73 points in 77 games (.95 PPG)

Stats on entry level deal: 135 points, 179 games, .75 PPG

Gaudreau put up:
1 point in 1 game (1.0 PPG)
64 points in 80 games (.8 PPG)
78 points in 79 games (.99 PPG)

Stats on entry level deal: 143 points, 160 games, .89 PPG

Tarasenko got 7.5M for 8 years. Gaudreau has proven to be a significantly better scorer than Tarasenko did during his entry level deal.

8M is not an overpayment, so long as it is an 8 year deal.

Another recent contract, if you want to look at it:

Nate Mackinnon (7 years, 6.3M per): .7 PPG

.7 PPG Vs. .89 PPG, is a big gap.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

That's 21 players not 23, so we don't have a forward back up.

and you missed Bollig

I missed writing him down, but he is counted in the total.

So, yes - we do have a 7th d-man (Smid) and 13th forward (bollig) in that calculation.

Here's the capfriendly.com breakdown

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Gaudreau (8M) - Monahan (6.375M) - Chiasson (.8M)
Shinkaruk (.863M) - Bennett (.925M) - Brouwer (4.5M)
Ferland (.825M) - Backlund (3.575M) - Frolik (4.3M)
Bouma (2.2M) - Stajan (3.125M) - Vey (.7M)

Giordano (6.75M) - Brodie (4.65)
Jokipakka (.9M) - Hamilton (5.75M)
Wideman (5.25M) - Engelland (2.916M)
Smid (3.5M)

Elliot (2.5M)
Johnson (1.7M)

$72,405,400

$594,600 in cap-space.

Gaudreau at 8M is not an overpayment.

Making a payroll that is under the cap does not prove that $8M isn't an overpayment.

By your assertion, Wideman, Engelland and Stajan aren't an overpayments either.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Making a payroll that is under the cap does not prove that $8M isn't an overpayment.

By your assertion, Wideman, Engelland and Stajan aren't an overpayments either.

Check my Tarasenko comparison.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

There are two problems with an argument like this.

1) You have made a list, with the implication that all of the players in the list have similar, or relatively equal value. Tarasenko may not be good value. Tavares is, because he has a nice low cap hit. Some of those players have cap hits under $5M. They are not comparables to Tarasenko's $7.5M and certainly do nothing to prove that overpaying Gaudreau would be okay.

2) Your list conveniently ignores other 2nd contracts that aren't good value. Contracts like Brodin, Eberle, RNH and others.

I'll say it again: ALL overpayments will contribute to cap problems. Being a 2nd contract, and a player being 23 years old, doesn't magically exempt them from that.

Also, for the love of god, let the Brouwer thing go already. You are going full Ricardodw on this. And you never go full Ricardodw.

So what should we do?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Gaudreau was sixth in NHL scoring last year, and everyone knows it was not a fluke.

Tarasenko put up:

19 points in 38 games (.5 PPG)
43 points in 64 games (.67 PPG)
73 points in 77 games (.95 PPG)

Stats on entry level deal: 135 points, 179 games, .75 PPG

Gaudreau put up:
1 point in 1 game (1.0 PPG)
64 points in 80 games (.8 PPG)
78 points in 79 games (.99 PPG)

Stats on entry level deal: 143 points, 160 games, .89 PPG

Tarasenko got 7.5M for 8 years. Gaudreau has proven to be a significantly better scorer than Tarasenko did during his entry level deal.

8M is not an overpayment, so long as it is an 8 year deal.

1) you are making an argument based on a single metric. If we look at goals (which typically seem to earn bigger contracts), Tarasenko looks better.

2) Tarasenko's 1st year brings down his average.

3) Tarasenko is overpaid, so using him as the baseline to justify an even bigger payment is maybe not the way to go here.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

So what should we do?

Not overpay him?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

1) you are making an argument based on a single metric. If we look at goals (which typically seem to earn bigger contracts), Tarasenko looks better.

2) Tarasenko's 1st year brings down his average.

3) Tarasenko is overpaid, so using him as the baseline to justify an even bigger payment is maybe not the way to go here.

Look at Mackinnon then.

Nate Mackinnon (7 years, 6.3M per): .7 PPG

Mackinnon played winger for the majority of his ELC.

Gaudreau is statistically better than every single one of these young star players. Johnny is also quite strong when it comes to "fancy stats".

Just embrace the fact that we have a truly elite player, and hopefully we'll have him locked up for 8 years at a very reasonable rate.

I don't get it. Why won't people just accept that we have an actual elite forward - that's a great thing! This isn't a very good player, this is an elite player.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Not overpay him?

8x7. The Doughty Special.

[Yanda]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

What 23 year old star players in the last ten years have busted on their second deal?

Jeff Skinner, 3 more years at $5,75

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Jeff Skinner, 3 more years at $5,75

Concussion issues. Also, 5.75M for .62 PPG last season is hardly "busting". He had one down season, where he only put up .40 PPG.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I missed writing him down, but he is counted in the total.

So, yes - we do have a 7th d-man (Smid) and 13th forward (bollig) in that calculation.

Here's the capfriendly.com breakdown

It leaves no room for Tkuchuk, Wotherspoon, and or Higgins, if they make the team. It can be done if say we send Vey or Wotherspoon to the minors, risking them on waivers but it isn't without problems.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Jeff Skinner, 3 more years at $5,75

In two of three years since signing his deal, Skinner has eclipsed 50 points and had a 33 goal and 28 goal season. While rebounding from concussion issues early in his career and while playing for the Carolina Hurricanes.

He may not be great value but tough to argue he's a bust.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

It leaves no room for Tkuchuk, Wotherspoon, and or Higgins, if they make the team. It can be done if say we send Vey or Wotherspoon to the minors, risking them on waivers but it isn't without problems.

At this stage you're just looking for ways to make it not work.

If Vey doesn't make the team, then who cares if we expose him. Ditto with Wotherspoon. It's not like either are very likely to be claimed anyways.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Concussion issues. Also, 5.75M for .62 PPG last season is hardly "busting". He had one down season, where he only put up .40 PPG.

Look, no one is suggesting that Gaudreau is going to bust.

We just don't want to overpay him and reduce the Flames' chances of being competitive.

What good is hitting a home run with a 4th round pick if all you do is turn around and give up the farm with him so you can't ice a competitive team?

[Coach]

Can someone post Tarasenko stats again? I'm not sure I've seen them compared 1 on 1.