The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[cross16]

I think the change to the 6 man rotation is a convenient excuse. All reports suggested that all the starters were in favor of it and In fact Jays weren't considering it until the other starters agreed. Remember to it was the players who spoke out aggressively against taking Sanchez out of the rotation.

I'm not a big Gibby fan and at best would call him average. However I do also think you don't get to where the Jays are today with terrible managing. Tough to win consistently with that and inspite of coaching in an pro league.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

And there is probably the deep and ugly core of our disagreement because we are on completely opposite sides of that - so we are going to always disagree from that starting point.
I think Gibby is a good manager who has never got enough respect and always far too much blame.
I think his approach is right for a veteran team - put them out there and get out of their way - and always have their back. He's not a guy that over manages. Is that the right approach? For this team I think it is but that is open to debate.

When I see fundamentals not being executed i tend to blame the player more than the manager, as I believe at this level they should be able to do that stuff.

The manager sets the tone.

On many teams, if you don't execute the small stuff you don't play.

With the Jays, it's not important - Gibby 'let's 'em play'

The fact that Saunders has slapped it through the shift once - once! (even though it worked perfectly) - is on Gibby, not on Saunders.

[JiriHrdina]

The shift thing drives me nuts. Whether it is the manager or players, I don't understand why more players just don't slap it to the other side and get a base hit. Don't get it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by cross16

I think the change to the 6 man rotation is a convenient excuse. All reports suggested that all the starters were in favor of it and In fact Jays weren't considering it until the other starters agreed. Remember to it was the players who spoke out aggressively against taking Sanchez out of the rotation.

I'm not a big Gibby fan and at best would call him average. However I do also think you don't get to where the Jays are today with terrible managing. Tough to win consistently with that and inspite of coaching in an pro league.

Being in favour of it doesn't change the results. And of course the players wanted Sanchez to stay in the rotation - he is their best pitcher.

[Karl]

This season will be a failure if we don't make the playoffs, and it'll be an absolutely catastrophic disaster if we somehow don't get a wildcard.

But at this stage, it really is a possibility because so many teams are getting close.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Watch Buck Showalter manage a game and then get back to me.

You mean the team that has scored less runs than the Jays?

[TheAlpineOracle]

So as I've argued before, the Jays inability to advance runners and score runs without the homer leads to extended power outages that other teams don't suffer from. The response to that was always " over the season it averages out". Do people still feel that way? They are in another terrible slump at the worst possible time. When the Jays slump
Offensively, they slump harder than most.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

The shift thing drives me nuts. Whether it is the manager or players, I don't understand why more players just don't slap it to the other side and get a base hit. Don't get it.

They've been hitting a certain way their whole careers, including coming up through college and the minors. It's hard to change that. Even if you feel comfortable enough to try and slap it the other way, you are giving up all your power to do so.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by JayP

They've been hitting a certain way their whole careers, including coming up through college and the minors. It's hard to change that. Even if you feel comfortable enough to try and slap it the other way, you are giving up all your power to do so.

Yeah I know. It just seems so obvious and easy.
I know that's oversimplifying it - but it seems like just a natural way to combat the shift and eventually they shift back, and you can resume your normal swing.
Not that easy I know.

[GirlySports]

It is that easy Jiri.

that's where the manager has to be strong.. HEY SAUNDERS BUNT IT TO 3rd OR I'LL STAPLE YOUR ASS TO THE BENCH! do it a few times and the defense will move two steps over to their right. They will open a hole.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by JayP

They've been hitting a certain way their whole careers, including coming up through college and the minors. It's hard to change that. Even if you feel comfortable enough to try and slap it the other way, you are giving up all your power to do so.

Doesn't matter.

They still have to do it. If other teams can do the opposite field ball thing and do it against the Jays, the Jays also have to do the opposite field ball thing against their opponents too.

If they really actually truly can't do that, then they're not good enough to compete with their opposition. I'd like to think that's not the case.

[Enoch Root]

Shortening your swing and directing the ball in a particular direction is not that hard - I mean, it isn't easy, in the same sense that nothing to do with batting is easy, but it isn't a different level of difficulty.

The missing element is a commitment from the team to practice it. And then execute when it matters.

But no such commitment is apparent.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Being in favour of it doesn't change the results. And of course the players wanted Sanchez to stay in the rotation - he is their best pitcher.

So Gibbons takes the blame but no credit for involving players in a decision and keeping his best pitcher in the rotation?

The results have been mixed for sure but I dont think that means the decision was poor or the wrong one. Players need to play and execute.

[Jason14h]

Doesn't matter.

They still have to do it. If other teams can do the opposite field ball thing and do it against the Jays, the Jays also have to do the opposite field ball thing against their opponents too.

If they really actually truly can't do that, then they're not good enough to compete with their opposition. I'd like to think that's not the case.

Again, statistically it is a bad play, just like the bunt. It's all about slugging %.

Let's take Saunders:

His slugging % is .502 hitting into the shift/batting normally
If he directs it to left, let's assume they are all singles.
He would have to hit .500 to justify this approach.
He currently strikes out 32% of the time. If this held consistent, he would have to hit 0.730 on balls in play to justify this strategy

Do we think he would be successful 3/4 times trying to chop it to left? And that is the break even/have the same expected # of bases per AB

Sure when a player hits into the shift it is annoying, or when another team does chop or bunt one that way it's annoying, but that's because we tend not the remember things that work out well, only times they don't.

[Jason14h]

So as I've argued before, the Jays inability to advance runners and score runs without the homer leads to extended power outages that other teams don't suffer from. The response to that was always " over the season it averages out". Do people still feel that way? They are in another terrible slump at the worst possible time. When the Jays slump
Offensively, they slump harder than most.

Do they though? Every team slumps, we just follow the Jays closely, so when they do it's annoying. I have tried to find the standard deviation of runs per game, etc but haven't been able to. I don't have the time to chart every team and amount of runs scored per game etc. Maybe someone knows whether this is actually accurate....

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Again, statistically it is a bad play, just like the bunt. It's all about slugging %.

Let's take Saunders:

His slugging % is .502 hitting into the shift/batting normally
If he directs it to left, let's assume they are all singles.
He would have to hit .500 to justify this approach.
He currently strikes out 32% of the time. If this held consistent, he would have to hit 0.730 on balls in play to justify this strategy

Do we think he would be successful 3/4 times trying to chop it to left? And that is the break even/have the same expected # of bases per AB

Sure when a player hits into the shift it is annoying, or when another team does chop or bunt one that way it's annoying, but that's because we tend not the remember things that work out well, only times they don't.

The bold is what's wrong with your argument

He strikes out 32% of the time because he is swinging for the fences every at bat.

When you shorten your swing to slap it through the hole, your strike out percentage in those at bats is substantially lower.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Do they though? Every team slumps, we just follow the Jays closely, so when they do it's annoying. I have tried to find the standard deviation of runs per game, etc but haven't been able to. I don't have the time to chart every team and amount of runs scored per game etc. Maybe someone knows whether this is actually accurate....

Every team slumps, the question is: what do they do about it?

The Jays scored 891 runs last year. They are on pace to score 785 this year. That's 106 less, or a drop of 0.66 runs per game (12%).

Despite hitting more home runs (on pace for 268 vs 232 last year)

And their lineup is better. Let's look at the changes...

Unchanged:

Donaldson
EE
Bautista
Tulo
Martin
Pillar

that is the entire heart of the lineup. Then we have:

Travis back from injury, replacing Goins at 2nd - huge upgrade

Upton replacing Revere in LF - both under-achieved, call it a wash (though Upton is better)

Saunders/Smoak replaces Collabello/Smoak - that is also an upgrade, especially when you consider how much they have reduced Smoak's playing time

So the lineup is improved but the number of runs is down significantly. Why?:

Bautista hasn't had a great year, due to a couple injuries. And the team overall has had more injuries - not a lot, by any stretch, but a bit more than last year

But the big reasons are strike outs and situational hitting.

The Jays haven't adjusted to the way teams pitch them.

They are seeing way fewer fast balls and way more breaking balls than last year. And yet HRs are up. But so are Ks. And averages, especially with RISP, are down. What do the higher HR totals and higher K totals suggest? They are swinging for the fences.

Instead of taking what teams are giving them, the Jays are swinging for the fences every night, almost every at bat. And when the pitcher sucks, they are having success (HRs are up). But when the pitching is good (most nights) they are striking out and leaving runners on base.

Is American League pitching better than last year? No. The Jays are just making it easier on them with their approach to the plate. And with their lack of being able to adjust to how they are being pitched.

And that is on the manager. He sets the tone. And he just keeps telling them to keep doing the same things.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by JayP

You mean the team that has scored less runs than the Jays?

The Jays have a much deeper lineup. They should be producing runs at a rate similar to the Red Socks, not the Orioles.

[JiriHrdina]

I don't agree with everything in that post - for instance I'm not sure that Saunders/Smoak this year is an upgrade over Colabello/Smoak last year. But it is a detailed overview of some of the drivers of worse performance this year.
However, you then boil it down to one thing - the manager. And that's where I just can't agree.
This is MLB. When it comes to approach at the plate - I think it is largely on the players to come up there and know what needs to be done.
I don't think Gibby is without blame, but to take all of that - and outline a lot of different areas where there have been struggles and then just say "and its the managers fault" is just way too simplistic of an explanation.

Health (JD, Jose, Estrada)
Rapid decline of some players due to age (Jose)
Rapid variance in performance YoY from others (Smoak, to a lesser extent Pillar)
Decline in starting pitching in 2nd half (from Happ and Estrada mainly)

I know that there is a POV that the way you drive some of this home, is if a player doesn't execute on fundamentals then you bench them. But I don't think this is realistic in modern sports, nor with what has been for most of the year a very shallow bench for the Jays.

You take your best crack by sending your best lineup out there as much as possible. This team is built to win a certain way. They will live and die by that.

You admit you've disliked Gibby from Day 1 - is it not possible your viewpoint of the situation is clouded by that. As is mine since I like Gibby. The truth probably lies in the middle where Gibby and the players need to own their share of responsibility.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Jays have a much deeper lineup. They should be producing runs at a rate similar to the Red Socks, not the Orioles.

Deeper on paper, but not on the field. The Red Sox have had several players take significant steps in their development this year. The Jays have had a couple players take steps back. That alone is partly why we are seeing what we are.