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View Poll Results: Assuming a term of 7 years what will Gaudreau's AAV end up being?
6.500 - 6.625 9 1.28%
6.625 - 6.750 5 0.71%
6.750 - 6.875 21 2.99%
6.875 - 7.000 59 8.40%
7.000 - 7.125 89 12.68%
7.125 - 7.250 85 12.11%
7.250 - 7.375 112 15.95%
7.375 - 7.500 102 14.53%
7.500 - 7.625 71 10.11%
7.625 - 7.750 38 5.41%
7.750 - 7.875 39 5.56%
7.875 - 8.000 33 4.70%
8.000 - 8.125 21 2.99%
8.125 - 8.250 6 0.85%
8.250 - 8.375 1 0.14%
8.375 - 8.500 11 1.57%
Voters: 702. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-09-2016, 11:28 AM   #861
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Come on Johnny. Your agent asking 8+ is steep when just 2 years into an NHL career. Wanna help the team win in a few years or not? Any extra cap space achieved may be the difference between keeping a starter goalie or needed depth and having to cut pieces loose and hurt the team when it's time to compete.

And yes I realize he probably doesn't read the boards or anything.
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Old 09-09-2016, 11:32 AM   #862
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I wonder if in hindsight Johnny came away worse burning that first year of ELC.

Sure it got him to his 2nd contract faster, but he'd probably be looking at a much bigger 2nd contract with 3 stud years under his belt, offer sheet leverage and only 4 RFA years holding the AAV back.
Sorry for quoting myself, but this got lost in the shuffle last night and I really want people's thoughts on it.

In hindsight, did Johnny screw himself a bit burning that first year?
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Old 09-09-2016, 11:39 AM   #863
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Sorry for quoting myself, but this got lost in the shuffle last night and I really want people's thoughts on it.

In hindsight, did Johnny screw himself a bit burning that first year?
Let's see:

A) Make ELC money (900K+Bonus) next year
B) Make Tarasenko money next year or sign a 1-3Y bridge that is bigger than ELC money.
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Old 09-09-2016, 11:39 AM   #864
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Sorry for quoting myself, but this got lost in the shuffle last night and I really want people's thoughts on it.

In hindsight, did Johnny screw himself a bit burning that first year?
Certainly not.

Instead of a salary of 0.925k he's looking at a contract at 7M+.

Let's say he signs 7M x 8. He'll be UFA as a 30 year old and prime for another huge contract if he's shown to be elite for the last 8 years.

If he had not burned his ELC and was offersheeted (max term of 7) he would need to sign a 7.9M x 7 to make the same amount.

Some room to argue for bonuses, which aren't guaranteed, and the chance that he gets injured or regresses in the third year.
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Old 09-09-2016, 11:39 AM   #865
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interesting for this news to come out, and to come out now (or maybe not interesting at all)...

To know what both sides are at in the negotiation would likely mean someone close to the process would be the source. I would imagine leaking this isn't a mistake and a media guy, even francis, isn't goign to publish this story without at least getting some indication that it is ok to do so.

So in that case, curious which side would leak it, and with what intent. If it was the flames, is it in the hopes for the media and social media to start the "wait, what?!?! that's way too high" uproar? If so, has it been successful? I think most folks here would assume 8M is way too high a AAV for a 2nd contract player, not named McDavid.
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Old 09-09-2016, 11:41 AM   #866
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I am finding this very intriguing.

When you take into account that RFA years are worth less than UFA years you have almost to negotiate each year separately.

JG's agent and many here will say his value should go up as he gets more time in the league. While the Flames want this, they don't want to overpay for future forecasts, particularly based on only two years of actual data. Although, if they agree to jump to say 8 for the final three years then they are doing exactly that forecasting so it is hard for them to say he won't improve during his RFA years.

On the other hand, BT wants to pay as little as possible for the RFA years but at the risk of pissing off his star player so that he may not even get to the UFA years.

If JG starts at 6, 6.5, 6.75, 7, 7.25 then 8, 8, 8. it provides a scaling of his salary during RFA for an average of 7.1875. But if we are willing to assume he will continue to develop, why would he agree to stay at 8 for three years of UFA? It easily devolves into a pissing match over every year.

Unless they only talk AAV then the negotiation gets way easier. JG says he wants 64. BT says we want, say, 56. Then it is just negotiating a valid midpoint and plugging in the numbers.

Intriguing.

I would give almost anything to get a behind the scenes play by play of these sorts of negotiations. Fascinating.
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Old 09-09-2016, 11:46 AM   #867
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interesting for this news to come out, and to come out now (or maybe not interesting at all)...

To know what both sides are at in the negotiation would likely mean someone close to the process would be the source. I would imagine leaking this isn't a mistake and a media guy, even francis, isn't goign to publish this story without at least getting some indication that it is ok to do so.

So in that case, curious which side would leak it, and with what intent. If it was the flames, is it in the hopes for the media and social media to start the "wait, what?!?! that's way too high" uproar? If so, has it been successful? I think most folks here would assume 8M is way too high a AAV for a 2nd contract player, not named McDavid.
I agree that the timing seems interesting. The day after his first World Cup game the numbers are out. Someone wants to apply pressure.

As for the court of public opinion, the general consensus I've seen is that you pay him whatever he wants (twitter and r/hockey on reddit).

My personal take,It's not Gaudreau's fault Treliving spends like a drunken sailor on July 1st for 3rd liners and then wants to tighten his purse strings for his star player.
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Old 09-09-2016, 11:56 AM   #868
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How do you figure?

If what is being reported is accurate:

‹7.1—7.5› – 8.0 = -0.9—0.5
‹7.1—7.5› – 6.5 = +0.6—1.0

I think you are being intentionally obtuse. "More movement" in this case is practically negligible.
Then why would a compromise take 'a lot of movement' from one camp and not the other. That was my whole point. It's just more inherent bias that the player is over asking, not that the team is low balling.
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Old 09-09-2016, 11:56 AM   #869
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I agree that the timing seems interesting. The day after his first World Cup game the numbers are out. Someone wants to apply pressure.

As for the court of public opinion, the general consensus I've seen is that you pay him whatever he wants (twitter r/hockey on reddit).

My personal take,It's not Gaudreau's fault Treliving spends like a drunken sailor on July 1st for 3rd liners and then wants to tighten his purse strings for his star player.
Huhh???
Green Text???

He filled the two needs quite admirably.
Elliott/Johnson for a bargain.
Brouwer is maybe 500K high, but that's the cost of bringing in a UFA without sending out any assets.
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Old 09-09-2016, 11:59 AM   #870
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Huhh???
Green Text???

He filled the two needs quite admirably.
Elliott/Johnson for a bargain.
Brouwer is maybe 500K high, but that's the cost of bringing in a UFA without sending out any assets.
I think he's taking three years of work into consideration, though I don't agree with it.

The Hiller/Engelland/Raymond UFA crop was a different reality for the team.

Frolik was and is a great value signing, considering what July 1 usually sees.

If Brower were 29 and not 31, I think his signing's in the same boat as Frolik's. But Brouwer's been pretty durable his whole career.
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:03 PM   #871
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Huhh???
Green Text???

He filled the two needs quite admirably.
Elliott/Johnson for a bargain.
Brouwer is maybe 500K high, but that's the cost of bringing in a UFA without sending out any assets.
Brouwer, Frolik, Raymond and Engelland the year before. They keep on adding big contracts for middle of the roster players. If I'm his agent or Bennett's next year and CGY tries the "take less for the team" line I'm hanging up the phone
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:08 PM   #872
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Brouwer, Frolik, Raymond and Engelland the year before. They keep on adding big contracts for middle of the roster players. If I'm his agent or Bennett's next year and CGY tries the "take less for the team" line I'm hanging up the phone
Bouma should be in there too, imo. Way too much for what he brings.
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:15 PM   #873
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Frolik is making less money than his actual worth on the ice. Great player.
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:18 PM   #874
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Originally Posted by saillias View Post
Brouwer, Frolik, Raymond and Engelland the year before. They keep on adding big contracts for middle of the roster players. If I'm his agent or Bennett's next year and CGY tries the "take less for the team" line I'm hanging up the phone
Except this only is an issue if you can't afford what the player is asking... which is not the case here so really this argument doesn't play into the negotiations at all. Raymond is gone, Brouwer and Frolik are decent value contracts with brouwer only being slightly overpaid but nothing crippling. Wideman, Engelland, Bollig and Smid are all off the books next year sooo I'm not sure what you are griping about.

Calgary has $8.5M in space right now so they CAN spend the $8M ask but that doesn't mean Treliving shouldn't do his job and negotiate, there's nothing indicative about bad terms or anything detrimental, just two parties doing due diligence. any amount of $100k saved is a potential asset for future plans. Yes it feels like it's dragged on but really there's lots of time to get this done.

For what it's worth (I have to find it) Johnny isn't signing or listening to his agent while the WC is happening his agent is still negotiating with Tre at this time.
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:20 PM   #875
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Brouwer, Frolik, Raymond and Engelland the year before. They keep on adding big contracts for middle of the roster players. If I'm his agent or Bennett's next year and CGY tries the "take less for the team" line I'm hanging up the phone

UFA contracts are completely different. You don't ask a UFA free agent to come to Calgary on a team friendly deal, they'll just go somewhere else.

If Bennett's agent wants to hang up the phone, Bennett won't be playing hockey.
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:23 PM   #876
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The more and more I see it, 7.25M is the right number. Right between Treliving and Gross's demands, less money than Tarasenko who scored more goals and more non-3v3 pointz in his contract year, but still suoerstar money.

8M is too high.. Phil Kessel made 8 for like one season before the Leafs retained 1.5 of that to hand the Penguins a cup.

7.575 I could live with, but it would not be "team-friendly". It would be "player-friendly".

6.5M won't likely get enough term. The next contract is going to be a killer with how this agent operates. Remember Conroy had the same agent and walked on us for money after the 04 run.
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:28 PM   #877
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The more and more I see it, 7.25M is the right number. Right between Treliving and Gross's demands, less money than Tarasenko who scored more goals and more non-3v3 pointz in his contract year, but still suoerstar money.

8M is too high.. Phil Kessel made 8 for like one season before the Leafs retained 1.5 of that to hand the Penguins a cup.

7.575 I could live with, but it would not be "team-friendly". It would be "player-friendly".

6.5M won't likely get enough term. The next contract is going to be a killer with how this agent operates. Remember Conroy had the same agent and walked on us for money after the 04 run.
I don't think Sutter even offered Conroy a contract if memory serves. I think it was because of the CBA was set to expire and the Flames weren't ready to commit due to the uncertainty.
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:36 PM   #878
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UFA contracts are completely different. You don't ask a UFA free agent to come to Calgary on a team friendly deal, they'll just go somewhere else.

If Bennett's agent wants to hang up the phone, Bennett won't be playing hockey.
And how many RFA years were they dealing with? None of course. Sure in hindsight some were overpaid. But that means you overpay again for Gaudreau? I'd say not.
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:37 PM   #879
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Brouwer is maybe 500K high, but that's the cost of bringing in a UFA without sending out any assets.
Brouwer is about 1.35 high.
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Old 09-09-2016, 12:38 PM   #880
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Brouwer is about 1.35 high.
The market disagrees.
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