Friedman: Gaudreau negotiations will be put on hold during World Cup

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Freeway

Anyone else kind-of excited to see Gaudreau play tonight?

Terrified.

Would love to see him play but won't be too upset if he doesn't.

[polak]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

If Gaudreau is fully prepared to sit out half the season or more, I would say whatever leverage the Flames have will disappear into nothing as the months drag on. It all comes down to how determined Gaudreau is, and nobody here has any idea how far he is willing to go. For all we know he could be 100% willing to sit out the season. Leverage is a funny thing, it can change drastically over time. Months into a holdout, RFA years, arbitration rights, etc, will mean nothing because the Flames will have most likely destroyed the relationship with the player. There is a real possibility of the Flames over playing their hand here if Gaudreau refuses to blink.

This.

The only way the Flames have all of the leverage is if all of the sudden they don't need Gaudreau. If say they have two prospects step up and light it up and the Flames are dominating then Gaudreaus leverage goes out the window.

Highly unlikely though. Players like Gaudreau (Iginla, Fluery...etc) come around once every generation for a franchise.

[nik-]

We already have a player on the roster who could quite likely be a better forward than Gaudreau, so lets relax with the once in a generation stuff.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

No, the Flames do not have all the leverage, but they sure as hell have the lion's share.

The real imbalance in this equation is in the fact that Gaudreau's UFA status is still five years away, AND he is not offer-sheet eligible. His ONLY bargaining chip is withholding service, and I think this is actually more detrimental in the long run to him than it is to the team. As Jonathan Drouin discovered, players need to keep playing if they ever hope to retain their value. He can likely afford to sit for a few games, but not many more than three or four. Even if both parties are unable to come to terms on a long-term deal, a short-term contract still provides a lot of control to the Flames for another five years, which is an eternity in professional hockey.

Of course, this is all a worst-case scenario, and I remain supremely confident that Gaudreau will sign a 6–8 year contract, and he will be in the starting lineup on 12 October.

No that's not his only leverage. In fact, that's not much leverage at all since as you point out, holding out likely gets him nowhere. His leverage is in refusing to sign a long term deal and leaving at his earliest opportunity. Forcing the Glames to lose him for nothing or trade him and likely not get full value. If the Flames want a long term deal, which they should, they are ceding some leverage here.

[theslymonkey]

Sitting out makes no sense. Sure a game or two doesn't have a huge effect. But losing out on an entire year of salary that's in the range of 6-8 Million is just stupid. Nevermind it makes you look stupid to every other GM in the league.

Yes the Flames need Johnny in the lineup. But if he's going to sit out and make a big deal of this, then slot Bennett in at #1 LW, Tkachuk at #2 LW, and play some hockey. To me, there is no one above the team.

[polak]

Originally Posted by nik-

We already have a player on the roster who could quite likely be a better forward than Gaudreau, so lets relax with the once in a generation stuff.

The one who had just over half the points Gaudreau had in his rookie year?

Lets not get carried away. Losing Gaudreau would be like losing an Iginla or Theo.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Wait, what is unrealistic about the Tarasenko comparable? Maybe the fact that Gaudreau is a more productive player and better defensively makes it a little on the low side, but it's not unrealistically low.

There is nothing overly unrealistic about the Tarasenko comparable. What is unrealistic though is saying that 8x$7.5M for Tarasenko is the same as 8x$7.5M for Gaudreau. Tarasenko's contract was 4 RFA + 4 UFA years, Gaudreau's would be 5 RFA +3 UFA years.

Do you acknowledge that that is the case?

If so, do you acknowledge that Tarasenko at 8x$7.5M is approximately equal to Gaudreau at 8x$7.1M? (assumes their RFA years are worth $6M and their UFA years are worth $9M).

[polak]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

Sitting out makes no sense. Sure a game or two doesn't have a huge effect. But losing out on an entire year of salary that's in the range of 6-8 Million is just stupid. Nevermind it makes you look stupid to every other GM in the league.

Yes the Flames need Johnny in the lineup. But if he's going to sit out and make a big deal of this, then slot Bennett in at #1 LW, Tkachuk at #2 LW, and play some hockey. To me, there is no one above the team.

Unless the team is enforcing some stupid cap and offering him way less money than he's worth.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

If Gaudreau is fully prepared to sit out half the season or more, I would say whatever leverage the Flames have will disappear into nothing as the months drag on. It all comes down to how determined Gaudreau is, and nobody here has any idea how far he is willing to go. For all we know he could be 100% willing to sit out the season. Leverage is a funny thing, it can change drastically over time. Months into a holdout, RFA years, arbitration rights, etc, will mean nothing because the Flames will have most likely destroyed the relationship with the player. There is a real possibility of the Flames over playing their hand here if Gaudreau refuses to blink.

Well, that's a possibility. But it's got a snowball's chance in hell of actually happening, IMO. He doesn't strike me as the type to sit out for that amount of time. He's said multiple times to let his agent do all that while he focuses on hockey. Johnny wants his agent to negotiate the best contract and advise his career moves, but once the business side crosses over too far into the hockey side he'll probably step in and put his foot down.

In the end, Lewis Gross can pretty much haggle all he wants, but the Flames have drawn the line in the sand and are refusing to budge. I don't think Gross really believes that the Flames are going to acquiesce to his contract demands, but he's gonna put in the effort all the same, until the bitter end - any potential future superstar-level clientele will be looking at the Gaudreau contract negotiation process as a measuring stick.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by polak

The one who had just over half the points Gaudreau had in his rookie year?

Lets not get carried away. Losing Gaudreau would be like losing an Iginla or Theo.

I guess if you have only one way to compare players.

You're the only one getting carried away here. Gaudreau will sign. If he signs for a bridge deal and then leaves, there will obviously be an impact, but it's not comparable to if Iginla or Fleury left. The talent gap just isn't there.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by polak

The one who had just over half the points Gaudreau had in his rookie year?

Lets not get carried away. Losing Gaudreau would be like losing an Iginla or Theo.

The one who was three years younger and scored a meager three less goals in his rookie year? Yeah, that one.

Let's got get carried away on how important Gaudreau is. He's a peice of the puzzle, he's one of the biggest peices but this once a generation for a franchise is bonkers.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by polak

Unless the team is enforcing some stupid cap and offering him way less money than he's worth.

So sitting out and losing a years salary of 6-8 Million fixes that?

[saillias]

Originally Posted by nik-

We already have a player on the roster who could quite likely be a better forward than Gaudreau

What

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by saillias

What

Bennett.

[nik-]

Who's going to put up just as many points in his prime while playing the pitbull center role.

[saillias]

He hasn't shown that whatsoever but ok. Ehlers and Domi and Nylander might be better than Gaudreau too. But are they, probably not.

[nik-]

Hasn't shown it whatsoever?

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by polak

Unless the team is enforcing some stupid cap and offering him way less money than he's worth.

Why would you feel like that's the case? Burke has stated that the Flames organization won't "nickel" and "dime" players and would pay them what they were worth, and so far that seems to be the case.

Look at Monahan. We were expecting 6-6.5. He signed for pretty much exactly what he's worth in terms of market value, having higher goal totals than other comparables. A market-value deal would have been offered to Johnny as well, not a lowballing one.

[polak]

Originally Posted by nik-

Who's going to put up just as many points in his prime while playing the pitbull center role.

Nice crystal ball. Why can't you tell us what Johnny is going to do then?

You want to know the amount of rookies who scored 36 points in their rookie years and didn't become PPG players?

This team has no one that is a sure thing to be as good as Johnny. There were only 5 players that were as productive as him in the entire league last year.

If Johnny is serious about sitting, the Flames have a long shot of replacing that level of talent.

[Weitz]

Sitting for a good part of the year would hurt the Flames playoffs chances a good amount. Which hurts the team financially.