TheScorpion's 2016-17 Calgary Flames Season Preview | Part 1: Forwards

[AC]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Pretty sure they had a 192 in 2014-2015 and 178 in 2015-2016.

200+ goals from their forwards is pretty optimistic, that puts them on par with teams like Pittsburgh in terms of forward scoring. However, unlike Pittsburgh who got an additional 34 goals from their defense, the Flames defense is looking at 50 goals.

Yep, in 14/15 the Flames forwards scored 192 + 45 from the D.

And in 15/16 the Flames forwards scored 178 + 51 from the D.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

That team has Benn, Seguin, Spezza and Sharp upfront and Klingberg on the back.

Well, the Flames have Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, and Backlund upfront and Giordano/Hamilton on the back.

Granted, they aren't on the same level, but I also don't see the Flames' D scoring 50 goals. More like 35.

[albertGQ]

Good post. Your math on Shinkaruk's stats is wrong so you may want to fix that.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Well, the Flames have Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, and Backlund upfront and Giordano/Hamilton on the back.

Granted, they aren't on the same level, but I also don't see the Flames' D scoring 50 goals. More like 35.

At this point, each one of those Flames forward is worse than their counterpart. And then you go beyond that and the Stars still had far superior depth which is why the were able to score 36 more goals than the Flames, and more than any other team.

Benn>Gaudreau
Seguin>>Monahan
Spezza>>>Bennett
Sharp>>Backlund

The point is 250 would be a huge surprise. Only one team reached it this year.

Calgary finished 10th in the NHL in goals scored last season, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise for the Flames to jump over the 250 goal mark in 2015-16. The Flames have loads of skill up front; it's their defence that needs work.

I don't believe that. Their forward group, at least until Bennett, Tkachuk and maybe Shinkaruk/Jankowski/Poirier/younamewho break out, this is a decidedly below average group. Flames might have finished 10th in scoring, but a lot of that had to do with the contribution from the most-offensive defense in the league. If you look at the teams scoring around the same rate, their forwards are putting up more points while their defenders are scoring significantly less, some in systems that stifled offense.

The Panthers had 233 goals. 27 goals came from their defense, who combined for 124 points.

The Senators had 230 goals. 39 goals came from their defense, who combined for 155 points including Karlsson's 82.

The Flames had 229 goals. 50 goals came from their defense, who combined for 203 points.

The Islanders had 227 goals. 34 goals came from their defense, who combined for 133 points.

If you just removed contribution from the defenders, the Flames were already below average in terms of production from forwards. However, if you were to replace Brodie, Giordano, Hamilton and the rest of the defenders with say Nurse, Klefbom and Sekera from the Oilers, do you not think the forwards are going to take quite a bit of a hit to their numbers? I would think so. I would say that, in large part because of the defenders on the Flames, scoring won't be their main issue this year, but I would certainly not say that the Flames have load of skill upfront, in fact behind Gaudreau and Monahan it was a pretty pathetic group. Hudler and Colborne got replaced with Brouwer and whichever rookie I guess, not exactly huge change to think they will go from below average to top of the league.

The Flames have the makings of a great first line, have probably the second best top 3 defense in the league (behind Nashville) and a goalie who has posted extremely good numbers over the last couple seasons. What they are missing is depth behind those guys. Behind Crosby and Malkin the Penguins had Kessel, behind Pavelski and Thornton the Sharks had Marleau and Couture, behind Taresenko they had Stastny, Steen and Backes. Even without Stamkos, behind Kucherov and Johnson the Lightning had a surging Drouin and Palat. Behind Gaudreau and Monahan, the Flames had Backlund and Frolik..not exactly the same league.

With that said, when Bennett and Tkachuk do breakout and do become 'secondary' scoring, the Flames will be in a great position. I just think that's not this year.

[djsFlames]

Bennett > Old Man Spezza this season.

Can you really put a definite cap on Gaudreau's point totals this year? You can't.

But 230 goals sounds about right for this team.

Edit: I take that back about Bennett. Didn't realize Spezza was still producing at a 30-30 level. Dallas's forward depth is stupid. Thank goodness their goalies are rubbish.

[AC]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Bennett > Old Man Spezza this season.

I don't know about that.

Spezza just had a 33 goal + 30 assist season. His past 3 season point totals are 63, 62, and 66.

I'm hoping Bennett pushes 50 points this year.

[FireGilbert]

Good read. You are being a little optimistic with the forward goal totals being over 200 though.

I think the Flames offence will be about the same as last year so around 230 total goals with about 50 coming from the defence. This leaves about 180 goals from the forwards.

[djsFlames]

These would be my approximate point totals, rounding up/down. Lines will shuffle around, but grouping the trios that you could guess would be with each other most. Being optimistic that Tkachuk makes it. I just sense a lot of determination with that kid.

Gaudreau 85
Monahan 70
Shinkaruk 40

Bennett 50
Brouwer 40
Tkachuk 30

Backlund 45
Frolik 35
Ferland 20

Bouma 25
Stajan 15
Chiasson 20

Bollig 5

I know it's very optimistic to say 40 for Shinkaruk, but if Brouwer does indeed end up being a 'pairing' with Bennett, then I'd say it's likely Shink for the top line RW as Chiasson I don't like has the talent to last there. And whoever plays on that wing is bound to have their stats inflated more than if they were playing with others. So I don't think it'd be far off. 15-25 for Shink I could definitely see.

Why not...let's do D

Giordano 50
Brodie 45

Hamilton 45
Jokipakka 20

Wideman 30
Engelland 15

Wotherspoon 5

I wonder if that's about right on or not if we had another 230 goal season. Hard to gauge, cause I didn't specify the goals for each.

Edit: Probably a bit optimistic, given
the Blackhawks had 6 players of 40 or more points, and 9 of 30 or more.
the Stars had 6 players of 40 or more, and 11 hovering around 30+.

I'm predicting 9 of 40 or more and 12 of 30 or more.
2 or 3 players totals have to probably be cut down a bit.

But I sense that it's a pretty safe bet our top 3 D are breaking 40 points.
Maybe too optimistic with Shinkaruk. Maybe Backlund is more in the 35-40 point range again.

A lot of thinking out loud here. It's late.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

...
The point is 250 would be a huge surprise. Only one team reached it this year.


I don't believe that. Their forward group, at least until Bennett, Tkachuk and maybe Shinkaruk/Jankowski/Poirier/younamewho break out, this is a decidedly below average group. Flames might have finished 10th in scoring, but a lot of that had to do with the contribution from the most-offensive defense in the league. If you look at the teams scoring around the same rate, their forwards are putting up more points while their defenders are scoring significantly less, some in systems that stifled offense.

The Panthers had 233 goals. 27 goals came from their defense, who combined for 124 points.

The Senators had 230 goals. 39 goals came from their defense, who combined for 155 points including Karlsson's 82.

The Flames had 229 goals. 50 goals came from their defense, who combined for 203 points.

The Islanders had 227 goals. 34 goals came from their defense, who combined for 133 points.

If you just removed contribution from the defenders, the Flames were already below average in terms of production from forwards.

I am interested to know what is "average" forward group production in the NHL, and how much "below average" is the Flames's group?

[J79]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Matt Stajan
Projection: 4 goals, 11 assists, 16 points

I can't see it happening.

[CroFlames]

I thought this was funny after putting in so much effort in the original post:

TL;DR -- The Flames have forwards who can skate, shoot, and hit -- some better than others.

[heep223]

If Bennett and Tkachuk click, this could be a very dangerous team for the next 5+ years.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Good write-up Scorpion. I think it is a little optimistic for this group to be 200+ goals from the forward group, mostly because of the weakness on the wing and how reliant they may be on the young guys like Shinkaruk and Tkachuk produce.

Having said that, the Flames don't need all of Shinkaruk, Tkachuk/ Chiasson/Vey/Ferland to break out. If 2 of those 5 hit, this will be an exciting team to watch. Add even a small bump in the powerplay, and Monahan and Gaudreau will have even better numbers than last year.

I just hope GG can have his plan of playing as a 5 man unit work out. So much talent on the D side, that it only makes sense to ditch the stretch pass for the most part and play to the strength of the team.

[IgiTang]

lol stats errors, structure errors, and other errors...

I don't understand why this guy gets coddled by "good write-up" yada yada...

But if it was someone else, they'de be getting lit up and flamed beyond belief..

[Murph]

This is the second preview I've seen in the last week with Shinkaruk pencilled in beside Monahan and Gaudreau. Am I the only one who thinks this is nuts? If anything, last year showed that Monahan and Gaudreau couldn't handle the tougher match ups they got on the road. And rookie Hunter Shinkaruk is supposed to help with this? I can appreciate the driver behind putting him there (I.e. The whole pairings thing), but I think this looks WAY better:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Brouwer
Shinkaruk - Backlund - Frolik
Tkachuk - Bennett - Chaisson
Bouma - Stajan - Ferland

Sure, it weakens Bennett's line a little, but if it turns into an issue, put Stajan on their wing in place of Chaisson.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

lol stats errors, structure errors, and other errors...

I don't understand why this guy gets coddled by "good write-up" yada yada...

But if it was someone else, they'de be getting lit up and flamed beyond belief..

The scorpion gets lit up more on these boards than anyone else except ricardow. Even then, it's pretty close since most people blocked ricardow.

[jaikorven]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

lol stats errors, structure errors, and other errors...

I don't understand why this guy gets coddled by "good write-up" yada yada...

But if it was someone else, they'de be getting lit up and flamed beyond belief..

Well then...not exactly called for nor is it helping with any discussion, come on and just don't post if you don't like the thread.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Well, look at it this way... David Jones was on Monahan and Gaudreau's wing for much of 2015-16, and he put up 18 points. Sure, the Hudler effect... but I don't see Brouwer/Shinkaruk putting up more than even 50 points.

David Jones was on was on Monahan's wing 10% of Monahan's 5 on 5 time.


Brouwer in his 9th year at age 31 is NOT going to suddenly have a career year scoring.

comparing your predictions to player's career years:

Gaudreau 91 pts current career year 78 new career by 13 pts
Monahan 75 63 +12
Brouwer 45 43 +2
Shinkaruk 3 43 +40
Bennett 51 36 +15
Backlund 46 47 -1 (Not a career year predicted)
Tkachuk +31
Frolik 43 45 -2 ( not a career year ... his 45 pt year was 10 seasons ago)
Ferland 26 18 +8

That is 7 forwards that you are calling to have a career year, plus 2 more that are within a couple EN assists of having a career year.

The guys not having a career year ... Bouma, Stajan, Bollig, Vey, Chaisson

This is on a team that is going to likely have a dramatic shift to a more standard defense first from the wide open game that got Gaudreau - Monahan - Backlund - Bennett - Ferland - Shinkaruk their career years.

There are a lot fewer points put up in winning 2-1 games than losing 6-4 games.


PS. Sort of reminds me when the Flames had 10 20 goals scorers going into the 2010-11 season :....Iginla, Tanguay, Glencross, Bourque, Jokinen, Morrison, Kotalik, Stajan, Moss, Hagman (langkow and Conroy were on the roster as well)..... only the first 4 hit 20 goals that year.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

lol stats errors, structure errors, and other errors...

I don't understand why this guy gets coddled by "good write-up" yada yada...

But if it was someone else, they'de be getting lit up and flamed beyond belief..

I don't understand why someone would make this post.



I think it will be interesting to see what happens to the flames offence with the new coaching style of GG. I would maybe expect more forward scoring and less defense scoring.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

lol stats errors, structure errors, and other errors...



I don't understand why this guy gets coddled by "good write-up" yada yada...



But if it was someone else, they'de be getting lit up and flamed beyond belief..

Grow up dude. Your obsession with Scorp is concerning.

There are some good points made, missed on some others. Just leave it alone if it bothers you.