[CP Story] Bridge over Troubled Water: Gaudreau Contract

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

But Scheifele was arguably the better player last year by a non-trivial amount, taking a big step forward, whereas Monahan did not. But Monahan has the better career track record, hence the bigger pay day for less term.

How so? He ended up with 61 points. Sure, he had a strong stretch of games to finish the season, but one could find strong stretches of games for Monahan as well.

When you're negotiating a new long-term contract, teams are going to consider more than just that.

Despite being 18 months older than Monahan, he has fewer points, fewer games, fewer ppg, and substantially fewer goals.

[JiriHrdina]

How relevant is Tarasenkos rookie year to the dicsusson at hand?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

But Scheifele was arguably the better player last year by a non-trivial amount, taking a big step forward, whereas Monahan did not. But Monahan has the better career track record, hence the bigger pay day for less term.

Yes. You are illustrating exactly my point by extrapolating the numbers on a basis of your own selected criteria as a means to demonstrate that Monahan's higher contract is a factor of his career track record. Much like a certain other poster on this board who shall remain un-named here, you are selecting criteria to fit with your own predisposed conclusions about these players. The rather glaring omission in all of your digital verbiage is the very likely instance that those negotiating NHL contracts are drawing from a much more sophisticated and not nearly so opaque set of factors.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

How so? He ended up with 61 points. Sure, he had a strong stretch of games to finish the season, but one could find strong stretches of games for Monahan as well.

When you're negotiating a new long-term contract, teams are going to consider more than just that.

Despite being 18 months older than Monahan, he has fewer points, fewer games, fewer ppg, and substantially fewer goals.

He had 29g and 61p in 71gp - that's a 33g 70p pace. That's a fair amount better than what we saw from Monahan last year.

And despite being 9 months younger than Tarasenko relative to draft year, Gaudreau had more points in less games and scored goals at a higher pace, over only 2 seasons instead of 3 (meaning he didn't get the advantage of playing in his 3rd year).

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

How relevant is Tarasenkos rookie year to the dicsusson at hand?

That's a good question. No matter how you spin it, he's been out produced by Johnny by a non-trivial amount, but omitting Tarasenko's rookie year closes the gap a bit.

[Enoch Root]

you're trying way too hard

how about admitting who you're representing, or telling us what it is you are trying to accomplish - now that would be interesting!

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

you're trying way too hard

how about admitting who you're representing, or telling us what it is you are trying to accomplish - now that would be interesting!

I'm having a hockey discussion on a hockey message board because I enjoy that activity. Why is that so hard to believe? What are you trying to accomplish?

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

That's a good question. No matter how you spin it, he's been out produced by Johnny by a non-trivial amount, but omitting Tarasenko's rookie year closes the gap a bit.

I think that is hyperbole and you are comparing very different players with very different career lengths.
That isn't spin. There is a more balanced way to look at this then what you are doing.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I think that is hyperbole and you are comparing very different players with very different career lengths.
That isn't spin. There is a more balanced way to look at this then what you are doing.

I'm open to other objective methods of interpreting comparables that have been used in the past, no sarcasm. I don't claim my half baked method to be the best because I'm not a professional.

I'd actually love to see the way other people are approaching such a valuation problem. Much like valuing companies for IPO, there is often value in triangulation via different methods (ebitda multiples, rev, etc)

[SebC]

As the Flames, you want a bridge deal if you believe your "window" is most open during the duration of the deal. Otherwise, you want to overpay early to underpay at the peak of your cycle. Do the Flames believe their best shot of this cycle is in the next 2-3 years?

[Stay Golden]

Nobody wants to see it or even say it but Johnny is going to be unsigned even during training camp. I don't see the Treliving or Johnny's agent coming off their individual purch's until the 11th hour. And it is going end in Treliving only getting Johnny to agree to a 2-3 year deal. Not what I hope happens but I think that is what the end game here unfortunately is going to be. I hope they can come to a 6-7 year agreement but I think 1 side (likely Johnny's camp) are only going to commit to a very short term contract.
I truly see this not being a signed contract until the season is ready to go.

[Vulcan]

So if there's a holdout, who plays on Monahan's LW?

Shinkaruk---Monahan----Brouwer
Ferland------Backlund----Frolik
Tkachuk-----Bennett-----Vey or Bouma
Bouma/Bollig-------Stajan------Chaisson

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

So if there's a holdout, who plays on Monahan's LW?

Shinkaruk---Monahan----Brouwer
Ferland------Backlund----Frolik
Tkachuk-----Bennett-----Vey or Bouma
Bouma/Bollig-------Stajan------Chaisson

Good god that's brutal. I think I night move Bennett up to get a puck carrier on that line, and maybe let Frolik center the 3rd line?

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

and maybe let Frolik center the 3rd line?

...?

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

...?

He can play all 3 forward positions.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

He can play all 3 forward positions.

No, don't believe so. He's a winger. Left shooting right winger primarily.

When did he last line up at center? Don't recall him doing it for either the Flames, Jets or Hawks. Don't know about Florida but I doubt it.

He's a winger.

[Vulcan]

I think it would open up a lot of competition between such skilled players as Mangiapane, Freddy Hamilton, Jankowski, Pribyl, Klimchuk and Poirier for a spot.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

So if there's a holdout, who plays on Monahan's LW?

Shinkaruk---Monahan----Brouwer
Ferland------Backlund----Frolik
Tkachuk-----Bennett-----Vey or Bouma
Bouma/Bollig-------Stajan------Chaisson

If Johnny's out, I probably go with something like:

Frolik-Monahan-Tkachuk
Bouma-Backlund-Stajan
Shinkaruk-Bennett-Brouwer
Ferland-Jankowski-Pribyl

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Frolik-Monahan-Tkachuk

Left winger on the right side; right winger on the left side?

[Ryan Coke]

I am starting to think that there is decent chance of a holdout based on Gaudreauvertime's arguments likely mirroring those of his/her employers. If that is truly where Lewis Gross is trying to stand his ground then as a season ticket holder I have no problem seeing the team play without him.

Between the awkward World Cup negotiating deadline and the ham fisted social media campaign, I wonder at what point the Gaudreau family might start to question their representatives strategy and capability.