[CP Story] Bridge over Troubled Water: Gaudreau Contract

[Gaudreauvertime]

Gaudreau's career productivity is 18% higher than Tarasenko's at the time of his contract, why is his deal (that is a year older) seen as the ceiling for what Gaudreau should earn?

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Not quite true. He's had Martin St. Louis, John Le Clair and Denis Potvin as clients.

I can see a holdout happening although this isn't good. Despite putting all the blame on the agent, I think Gaudreau has to be driving some of this stubbornness.

Why are we defaulting to accusing the player of being greedy? It's impossible that Treliving is being unreasonable with a Gio cap?

It seems very strange that the popular click on this board are so willing to drink the Treliving kool aid.

[MrMastodonFarm]

First of all, it's clique. Second of all you're just rehashing all the same stuff you've done before. That post was a greatest hits album. Give up trying to allude to a "Gio cap" it's not a thing, it never was a thing, someone made it up on this board last week,

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

First of all, it's clique. Second of all you're just rehashing all the same stuff you've done before. That post was a greatest hits album. Give up trying to allude to a "Gio cap" it's not a thing, it never was a thing, someone made it up on this board last week,

Roger Millions brought up the Gio Cap in a recent radio interview.

Nobody ever addressed my point about Gaudreau's production relative to Tarasenko's. 18% is not a trivial difference.

[getoverit]

Why does Treeliving have to pull his pants down. Gaudreau has had great point totals in his first couple years in meaningless years. If we were winning meaningful games and was a big difference maker in pushing the team forward and could produce on the road then maybe he is worth what he believes he is. some of the numbers being thrown out is nutz. I'm fine with taking however long it takes to do what's right for the flames and not get caught up in cap hell. We have been there and still have some stupid contracts.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Roger Millions brought up the Gio Cap in a recent radio interview. .

Millions was speculating (something he's famously horrible at) the Flames are using "the captain as a benchmark" and are "fairly adamant" Gaudreau's contract stays below that 6.75 level. He never uttered the words "Gio Cap" nor did anyone say it was a hard and fast rule the Flames live by. That quote was taken and ran with by the crazies here.

Nobody ever addressed my point about Gaudreau's production relative to Tarasenko's. 18% is not a trivial difference

Tarasenko scored 37 goals before he signed his new deal. 37 goals that tied him for 5th in the NHL that season. You can thump the 18% all you want but seven more goals is a major factor in debating offensive numbers. Goals > assists and Gaudreau's 30 goals are a clear notch behind.

Can Gaudreau be a 40 goal scorer? Maybe, once or twice. Tarasenko has a couple 50 goal seasons in him IMO.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Gaudreau's career productivity is 18% higher than Tarasenko's at the time of his contract, why is his deal (that is a year older) seen as the ceiling for what Gaudreau should earn?

I want to open this with "I was probably the first person on CP to suggest Tarasenko money for Gaudreau, way back in October". So do not get me wrong. I value Gaudreau.

But there are a few issues you are brushing under the rug.

Players with a greater AAV than Tarasenko currently (all commentary is from the time of their signing):

Patrick Kane - 2 time cup champ, Conn Smythe
Jonathan Toews - 2 time cup champ, Conn Smythe, Selke, Center
Anze Kopitar - 2 time cup champ, Conn Smythe, Center
Alex Ovechkin - Rocket Richard, Art Ross, Hart etc
Evgeni Malkin - See Ovy + Add Center + Add Stanley Cup
P.K. Subban - Norris Trophy
Sidney Crosby - ... Sidney Crosby
Corey Perry - Hart Trophy, Rocket Richard
Steven Stamkos - Rocket Richard
Henrik Lundqvist - Henrik Lundqvist
Claude Giroux - Center, 3rd place Hart Finish
Ryan Getzlaf - Center, 2nd place Hart Finish
Jakub Voracek
Phil Kessel
Shea Weber - Defenseman
Rick Nash
Dustin Byfuglien - Defenseman
Ryan Suter - Defenseman
Zach Parise
Ryan O'Reilly - Center
Pavel Datsyuk - Selke, Stanley Cup etc center

Now I have bolded the players who are remotely comparable to Gaudreau. What is the common theme? They are overpaid. No Ifs and Or Buts. Those teams are hamstrung by those contracts. Kessel is the sole exception - because Toronto retained 1.2M of his 8.0M cap hit (so for Pitt, he is a 6.8M winger which is fair competitive value). Yes even Patrick Kane is overpaid despite winning all of this year's trophies. The Blackhawks window probably closed the minute they had to trade away Patrick Sharp due to the new extensions Kane/Toews signed - both players are overpaid BTW not just Kane. There is exactly one winger in the league who is worth this kind of money and it's not even Ovechkin - it is Jamie Benn because he impacts the game like a centre.

If you are paying a player this kind of money they better be the best goalie in the world, one of the best two-way centres in the world, or one of the best defensemen in the world. Period. Else you are setting your team up to be uncompetitive. It's nothing wrong with Gaudreau but at his position he is unable to impact the game the amount he needs to be worth that pay.

Despite that, I understand that the market dictates value, not competitiveness. The Tarasenko deal is fair market value even if it is in all likelyhood going to be a handcuff. But that does not mean Gaudreau is a better player than Vladimir Tarasenko was when he signed his deal.

Prorating both players' final ELC seasons to an 82 game season here's why Tarasenko holds more value:

2014-15 Tarasenko vs 2015-16 Gaudreau
78 non 3v3 points vs 73 non 3v3 points
39 non 3v3 goals vs 28 non 3v3 goals
2.86 5vs5 Points per 60 vs 2.28 5vs5 Points per 60
0 3vs3 Points vs 8 3vs3 points(3G / 5A)

Now let's explore that last one. 3vs3...does that make a team more competitive in the playoffs? Answer honestly.

Probably not.

So what then is Gaudreau's value-added over Tarasenko? Increased likelyhood at winning a President's Trophy? Is a President's Trophy more valuable than a Stanley Cup?

You ask me, given the fact that Tarasenko scored 39% more goals (let's dock 5% from Gaudreau's AAV for that) and overall 7℅ more non 3-on-3 points (and let's dock another 7% from Gaudreau for that) but was one year older (let's add 5% to Gaudreau for that) with a 3.5% lower cap ceiling at the time, Gaudreau's real cap hit should be ~7.25M (Or 58M over 8Y)

However for pride sake, you can give him a 7.575x8Y cap hit to show him we value him more than Tarasenko.

But to say he's worth a 7.8M cap hit for example, that means he's probably overpaid by $550k - that almost is an entire entry level or veteran minimum salary he would be overpaid by. Suddenly you've lost a roster player in terms of value subtracted.

[JiriHrdina]

[QUOTE=Gaudreauvertime;5888613
It seems very strange that the popular click on this board are so willing to drink the Treliving kool aid.[/QUOTE]

You haven't been here long enough to take shots at the board.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Or is it all just speculation?

I think it all is, and I believe Bingo pointed that out in his piece. Only a few people really know what's going on, and we ain't them. I don't think anyone in the media does either.

Anyway, one thing I think fans (or I know I do) tend to do is sort of shrug our shoulders and think "what's the difference between 6.4 and 7? Just give him the money already" or the other way "he's getting paid millions to play hockey, what's a few hundred grand here and there?"

Really though, they are talking about millions of dollars difference over a number of years, never mind the ramifications on the future of the team and his entire career, of which he's only going to get one.

It's a big deal for all involved and it only makes sense that they'd go back and forth even though others signed early in the summer.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

You haven't been here long enough to take shots at the board.

Pull over Hrdina!!! I am trying to get somewhere.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Roger Millions brought up the Gio Cap in a recent radio interview.

Nobody ever addressed my point about Gaudreau's production relative to Tarasenko's. 18% is not a trivial difference.

The way I look at the Gio cap is that it's kind of a thing but if it's inconvenient, it's no longer a thing. It was first brought up when discussing the Brodie contract where Brodie's first year was lower than Gio's yearly contract but later rewarded Brodie for his more real worth. It probably had more to do with Brodie's wishes in respect for Gio than an ironclad rule.

Gaudreau will get paid what he's worth to the Flames, without regard to Gio. It's all a matter of paying Johnny while keeping other options open. It's a team game and Johnny has to take this into account. The Flames can't just back up an armoured truck and say take what you want.

On another note, I'm pretty sure Treliving isn't low balling Gaudreau because in my opinion he overpaid a little for Monahan as Monahan got a little more than his comparable rivals.

Here's a bit of the Brodie thread where it was discussed. Of course at the time Wideman made more than both of them, so take it with a grain of salt.

Originally Posted by Rerun
Gio makes 4 mil per year and he has 2 years (this year and next year) on his contract, then he becomes a UFA.
There is no way that they are going to pay Brodie more that 4 mil for the next two years.

Originally Posted by Vulcan

It could go something like this: $3.5M, $4.0M, $4.5M, $5.0M, and $5.5M so that would keep him lower than Gio.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...t=Giordano+cap

Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC
Brodie is a $4.65M AAV. Interesting: his first year is $3.9M -- a nod to Giordano, who has one year left on his deal at $4M. (1/2)

It was just a nod, not a rule.

[Bingo]

Thanks for the great feedback guys, this has been floating around my head for 10 days.

The math just doesn't work ... the kid is just too good too quick in a very interesting contract structure.

[taco.vidal]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

It seems very strange that the popular click on this board are so willing to drink the Treliving kool aid.

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

You haven't been here long enough to take shots at the board.

Im not wanting to get into high school cliques or politics. But it does seem people are 100% behind BT while BT has not shown much yet. The poster in question hasnt been here long, but what has BT done in his tenure so far? Gotten the team into a bad goalie situation that resulted in missed playoffs, then signed potentially OK goalies to OK contracts? And everyone is excited about that?
BT got Monahan done. Great. Kevin Lowe could have gotten that done.

If the JG negotiations are messed up, that is worse than Feaster's offer sheet mishap? There is a lot to be worried about.


Oh, and Bingo's article is good.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by taco.vidal

Im not wanting to get into high school cliques or politics. But it does seem people are 100% behind BT while BT has not shown much yet. The poster in question hasnt been here long, but what has BT done in his tenure so far? Gotten the team into a bad goalie situation that resulted in missed playoffs, then signed potentially OK goalies to OK contracts? And everyone is excited about that?
BT got Monahan done. Great. Kevin Lowe could have gotten that done.

If the JG negotiations are messed up, that is worse than Feaster's offer sheet mishap? There is a lot to be worried about.


Oh, and Bingo's article is good.

This is opinion, right? Or are you presenting it as fact?

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by taco.vidal

Im not wanting to get into high school cliques or politics. But it does seem people are 100% behind BT while BT has not shown much yet. The poster in question hasnt been here long, but what has BT done in his tenure so far? Gotten the team into a bad goalie situation that resulted in missed playoffs, then signed potentially OK goalies to OK contracts? And everyone is excited about that?
BT got Monahan done. Great. Kevin Lowe could have gotten that done.

If the JG negotiations are messed up, that is worse than Feaster's offer sheet mishap? There is a lot to be worried about.


Oh, and Bingo's article is good.

What Treliving has shown so far is that he's not scared to pay money, even over pay in my books for players.

[Vinny01]

8x8 is the number I have in my head and would be happy with that contract. I truly think
Gaudreau is going to be a superstar top 3-5 forward for a long time

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

8x8 is the number I have in my head and would be happy with that contract. I truly think
Gaudreau is going to be a superstar top 3-5 forward for a long time

Johnny signs that deal.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Very much agreed with all points. A bridge is the best solution for all parties. Gaudreau gets the opportunity to prove that he is a top 10 player, the Flames get the opportunity to see how much Bennett and Tkachuk will cost.

I don't see how it is in the best interest of Gaudreau at all. He's as good a bet as anyone to be a top player in this league for a long time. But 2 great years does not make him an absolute sure thing. He could sign a 2 year deal, and get a couple nagging injuries, not develop as planned, meet a complicated girl... and end up leaving 40 million on the table. Getting to prove he's a top ten is what the difference between a 50 million contract and a 60 million? I don't see how an agent can look at that as a positive risk/reward move.

It is interesting to contrast hockey to baseball CBAs effect in this regard. Bryce Harper, by all objectivity, was an even more elite talent at the same age. He had no issues taking a 7.5 million over 2 year contract when he could have easily signed a 200-300 million contract. In Harper's case though, the reward was the prospects of a 500-700 million contract.

I think it is kind of lame that hockey has reached the point where team's have to decide if their guy is a star or not after 2-3 years.

[FireGilbert]

Good read, I give it a 9/10. One point was lost for the zero complaints about pedestrians bridges.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by taco.vidal

Im not wanting to get into high school cliques or politics. But it does seem people are 100% behind BT while BT has not shown much yet. The poster in question hasnt been here long, but what has BT done in his tenure so far? Gotten the team into a bad goalie situation that resulted in missed playoffs, then signed potentially OK goalies to OK contracts? And everyone is excited about that?

With all due respect...on what basis do you think people here are 100% behind BT. Rarely is the board unified in such a way on an opinion and rarely are people 100% on board with anything. I don't understand where comments like this come from.

What I read on the forum is a range of concern about whether or not this deal will be done, and if the final deal will be good for the player and Flames. That doesn't scream that the board is 100% behind the GM. It tells me there is concern.

But what do we seem to know about BT so far
- He is incredibly hard working and detail orientated
- He seems to be a fair guy and very open and transparent
- He's been able to get some other very tough deals done.

So based on that is it any surprise that there is some element of faith in the GM to find something that works?

[BigRed]

Exceptionally clear-headed and well -reasoned analysis, Bingo. Late to to this party, but well done. And thanks .