Pronman: Flames 9th ranked prospect pool

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

Actually the Flames could only wish to be average. They are not even close. In quality and quantity.

990 players played at least one game in the NHL last season. 19 of them were developed by the Flames AHL affiliate. That's less than 2%.

Giordano, Backlund, Brodie, Granlund, Baertschi, Ferland, Jooris, Prust, Bouma, Nystrom, Wotherspoon, Seiloff, Ramage, Agostino, Kylington, Poirier, Kulak, McElhinney and Ortio. Only Giordano was in the top 100 in scoring and 6 or 7 of these guys likely will not be in the league this year.

To put that into perspective, 17 Hitmen alumni played in the league last year. So, if you are on the Hitmen, you are almost as likely to go into the NHL as a player in Stockton is. And you are more likely to be an impact player.

As for Pronmans 2016 prospect rankings it will be very interesting to have a look in 5 years. I like Nashville (10), Detroit (18) and San Jose (24). I know almost nothing about their prospects but I do know that those teams have a proven reputation for graduating players from their AHL team into the NHL. I'm really starting to think that if you exclude the really high end players, development is even more important than drafting.

Ok, but "playing at least 1 game in the NHL last season" is not exactly a metric for showing developmental success. Teams with a large number of injuries will shoot way up that list. It doesn't show the impact of those players. Further, one season is a small sample size, and as I mentioned in my post, the bulk of prospects drafted in the post-Sutter era are just getting to the point where they will be making the jump. None of us will argue that drafting and especially development pre-2010 was anything but atrocious.

Furthermore, how far is 2% off of league average? Given the Flames are 1 of 30 teams, league average would appear to be about 3%, no? Further, a chunk of the players who played in the NHL last season never played for their AHL affiliate (jumped straight from junior, college, or Europe), so we're not looking at 900 players; likely much less than that. So I'm still betting the Flames are right at league average, even using your flawed metric.

How about, of players who have played at least 50 NHL games and were drafted after 2010, and have played at least 10 games for the AHL affiliate of the team that drafted them, how many were developed by the Flames?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

...How about, of players who have played at least 50 NHL games and were drafted after 2010, and have played at least 10 games for the AHL affiliate of the team that drafted them, how many were developed by the Flames?

This is a much more dependable metric in my opinion.

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by getbak

I'm curious where you found these numbers. I've tried to find these kind of stats before and couldn't find any sites with that information.

It's not an exact number. The AHL website says that 83% of NHL players played in the AHL.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

It's not an exact number. The AHL website says that 83% of NHL players played in the AHL.

Damn. That's too bad. I was hoping you had found a site that actually tracked that.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

It's not an exact number. The AHL website says that 83% of NHL players played in the AHL.

So, you are comparing data drawn from a single season to a number you made up based on an imprecise figure offered by the AHL? 83% of all NHL players ever? 83% of players from this past season? And moreover, what constitutes an "NHL player"? Does this number factor in a minimum of NHL games played and injury call up situations as suggested by Five-hole?

This convinces me that your point is basically meaningless.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

How much could that 83% really change from year to year though? Not enough to snarkily dismiss his post as meaningless I'd imagine.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

How much could that 83% really change from year to year though? Not enough to snarkily dismiss his post as meaningless I'd imagine.

Even if the figure does not fluctuate much from year-to-year, what does theAHL.com mean by "NHL player"? Does this pertain to every player to dress for an NHL game? Does it have a minimum-games-plyed threshold? Without these sorts of parameters in view, it is basically a meaningless metric to use in this discussion.

I think the number is quite readily dismissed in the light of an absence of any clear definition as to what it means.

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This is a much more dependable metric in my opinion.

0 Colorado (what the hell)

1 Toronto............,,.Rielly

2 Vancouver...........Corraddo, Virtanen
2 Washington..........Carrick, Burakovsky

3 Calgary................Ferland, Granlund, Baertschi
3 NY Islanders.........Nelson, Niederreiter, Strome
3 NY Rangers...........Lindberg, Fast, Miller
3 San Jose...............Nieto, Tierney, Mueller
3 Jets ....................Burmistrov, Lowry, Schiefle

4 Dallas..................Klingberg, Nemeth, Jokipakka, Oleksiak
4 Los Angeles..........Toffoli, Shore, Andreoff, Pearson
4 Boston..................Trotman Cunningham, Spooner, Pastrnak
4 Minnesota.............Coyle, Zucker, Granlund, Dumba
4 Florida..................Petrovic, Howden, Shaw, Trocheck
4 Nashville..............Watson, Salomaki, Sissons, Arvidsson
4 Philadelphia...........Mcginn, Couturier, Gostisbehere, Laughton
4 St Louis................Schwartz, Edmundson, Jaskin, Parayko

5 Ottawa..................Stone, Pageau, Prince, Zibanejad, Ceci
5 New Jersey............Merril, Boucher, Larsson, Severson, Matteau
5 Edmonton..............Marincin, Davidson, Klefbom, Nurse, Pakarinen
5 Phoenix..................Rieder, Gormley, Murphy, Martinook, Domingue(46gp)
5 Carolina................Faulk, Rask, Murphy, Slavin, Pesce
5 Columbus..............Prout, Johanson, Jenner, Dano, Chaput

6 Montreal...............Bournival, Gallager, Tinordi, Beaulieu, Andrighetto, De La Rose
6 Detroit..................Mrazek, Pulkinen, Jarnkrok, Sheahan, Marchenko, Jurko

7 Buffalo..................Larsson, Pysyk, Mcabe, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Ristolianen, Zadorov
7 Chicago.................Nordstrom, Shaw, Dahlbeck, Saad, Clendening, Danault, Teravainen

8 Tampa Bay............Gudas, Connolly, Palat, Nesterov, Kucherov, Namestnikov, Paquette, Drouin

9 Anahiem................Wagner, Smith-Pelly, Etem, Manson, Karlsson, Gibson, Rakell, Andersen, Lindholm

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

How much could that 83% really change from year to year though? Not enough to snarkily dismiss his post as meaningless I'd imagine.

Sure it's enough. He is a text critic.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

I'm not sure what the point of limiting this search to previous AHL players is. It's not Stockton's fault that players like Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett have never had the need to play AHL games. Or that the Flames have taken to drafting and developing players in the NCAA as well. Hickey is still there just because we have so much depth in the AHL already.

You can also argue that because of the depth on D in the NHL we haven't been able to graduate certain players. If we weren't so deep on D in addition to having anchor contracts it would be easier to give more playing chances to Nakladal (who should be in the NHL), Wotherspoon(almost makes your list as it is), Kylington, Culkin, Kulak (also showed to be NHL ready).

When players are called up, they look like they belong. That's all you can ask for really. I remember Hartley going out of his way to mention as much.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

0 Colorado (what the hell)

1 Toronto............,,.Rielly

2 Vancouver...........Corraddo, Virtanen
2 Washington..........Carrick, Burakovsky

3 Calgary................Ferland, Granlund, Baertschi
3 NY Islanders.........Nelson, Niederreiter, Strome
3 NY Rangers...........Lindberg, Fast, Miller
3 San Jose...............Nieto, Tierney, Mueller
3 Jets ....................Burmistrov, Lowry, Schiefle

4 Dallas..................Klingberg, Nemeth, Jokipakka, Oleksiak
4 Los Angeles..........Toffoli, Shore, Andreoff, Pearson
4 Boston..................Trotman Cunningham, Spooner, Pastrnak
4 Minnesota.............Coyle, Zucker, Granlund, Dumba
4 Florida..................Petrovic, Howden, Shaw, Trocheck
4 Nashville..............Watson, Salomaki, Sissons, Arvidsson
4 Philadelphia...........Mcginn, Couturier, Gostisbehere, Laughton
4 St Louis................Schwartz, Edmundson, Jaskin, Parayko

5 Ottawa..................Stone, Pageau, Prince, Zibanejad, Ceci
5 New Jersey............Merril, Boucher, Larsson, Severson, Matteau
5 Edmonton..............Marincin, Davidson, Klefbom, Nurse, Pakarinen
5 Phoenix..................Rieder, Gormley, Murphy, Martinook, Domingue(46gp)
5 Carolina................Faulk, Rask, Murphy, Slavin, Pesce
5 Columbus..............Prout, Johanson, Jenner, Dano, Chaput

6 Montreal...............Bournival, Gallager, Tinordi, Beaulieu, Andrighetto, De La Rose
6 Detroit..................Mrazek, Pulkinen, Jarnkrok, Sheahan, Marchenko, Jurko

7 Buffalo..................Larsson, Pysyk, Mcabe, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Ristolianen, Zadorov
7 Chicago.................Nordstrom, Shaw, Dahlbeck, Saad, Clendening, Danault, Teravainen

8 Tampa Bay............Gudas, Connolly, Palat, Nesterov, Kucherov, Namestnikov, Paquette, Drouin

9 Anahiem................Wagner, Smith-Pelly, Etem, Manson, Karlsson, Gibson, Rakell, Andersen, Lindholm

So, explain this list to me.

I see that these are players from each team who played in their AHL affiliate, but what are the criteria for determining who is an NHL player? And what is the cut-off date for their last AHL roster appearance? And is it really equitable to include NHL players with only a handful of AHL games played (i.e. Jake Virtanen) but no AHL players who have already played only a handful of NHL games?

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

How about, of players who have played at least 50 NHL games and were drafted after 2010, and have played at least 10 games for the AHL affiliate of the team that drafted them, how many were developed by the Flames?

3.

As for Virtanen......... I dunno. That's the list the list that Five-hole asked for and that you said was a much more dependable metric.

All the players listed have 10 AHL games, 50 NHL games and were drafted after 2010.

[Strange Brew]

Mr. Y had an opinion and backed it up with some stats. Its always easier to poke holes in someone else's opinion but he provided the exact data requested. You have to respect that.

IMO the jury is still out on the ability of the current regime to develop players. We haven't seen much yet but it's still a little early. Although its true that players called up didn't look out of place, I do think we can hope for more than a farm system that can supply short term injury call-ups.

This year could be telling. Its possible Stockton will have 4 first round forwards on its roster as well as similar number of 2nd round picks and our prize goaltending prospect. Its fair to say expectations should be higher. It will of course be even better if some of those players make the team out of camp.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Yup and I admire guys who go out on a limb and at least have an opinion.
Pronman and Button consistently have lists that are different from the consensus. Which in and of itself, makes them more interesting.

ya even after they get drafted Pronman still sticks with his guys

last year I thinke ven after the drop in the draft he had Kylington way up there, he had Shinkaruk below last year still in the top 30 or so

more than most prospect guys I think he places a huge amount on speed and skill vs all around game

[GranteedEV]

Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman Nov 4
He still needs some time, but Oliver Kylington-CGY looks like a future NHL player. Dynamic skater and puck mover. D isn't great but coming.

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

he places a huge amount on speed and skill vs all around game

"All-Around Game" is teachable.
Speed and Skill are innate.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman Nov 4
He still needs some time, but Oliver Kylington-CGY looks like a future NHL player. Dynamic skater and puck mover. D isn't great but coming.



"All-Around Game" is teachable.
Speed and Skill are innate.

So in other words he's trending to be just like Gio, Brody, and Dougie. This organization is so all or nothing. Solid wingers and no centers for almost a decade to solid centers, offensive defensemen and no wingers or shutdown defensemen.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

So in other words he's trending to be just like Gio, Brody, and Dougie. This organization is so all or nothing. Solid wingers and no centers for almost a decade to solid centers, offensive defensemen and no wingers or shutdown defensemen.

Yeah but decent to good wingers and shut down D are much easier to acquire than high quality centers or offensive Dmen.

I'd rather it this way, but I guess we'll see how it all shakes out.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

So in other words he's trending to be just like Gio, Brody, and Dougie. This organization is so all or nothing. Solid wingers and no centers for almost a decade to solid centers, offensive defensemen and no wingers or shutdown defensemen.

Having a bigger shut down defenseman is defintely useful, but you are overstating the concept of a balanced blue line, especially since none of Dougie, Gio, or Brodie are one-dimensional.

Keith
Seabrook
Campbell/Oduya
Leddy/Byfuglien

were all puck movers. Only Hjalmarssson fit the Stay-at-Home mold.

Doughty
Muzzin
Voynov
Martinez

were all puck movers. Only Willie Mitchell truly fit the Stay-At-Home mold among their minute munchers (Regehr did too, but by his Kings days was bottom pair, easily acquired) Even last year,

Letang
Dumoulin
Matta
Daley
Schultz

were all puck movers. Only Ben Lovejoy fit the Stay-At-Home mold. Also Bottom Pair.

With Brandon Hickey, Tyler Wotherspoon, and Adam Ollas-Mattsson, I am confident we have one useful stay at home type in the making. It'd be nice to have prime Chris Pronger or Zdeno Chara, said EVERY team in the league.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Having a bigger shut down defenseman is defintely useful, but you are overstating the concept of a balanced blue line, especially since none of Dougie, Gio, or Brodie are one-dimensional.

Keith
Seabrook
Campbell/Oduya
Leddy/Byfuglien

were all puck movers. Only Hjalmarssson fit the Stay-at-Home mold.

Doughty
Muzzin
Voynov
Martinez

were all puck movers. Only Willie Mitchell truly fit the Stay-At-Home mold among their minute munchers (Regehr did too, but by his Kings days was bottom pair, easily acquired) Even last year,

Letang
Dumoulin
Matta
Daley
Schultz

were all puck movers. Only Ben Lovejoy fit the Stay-At-Home mold. Also Bottom Pair.

With Brandon Hickey, Tyler Wotherspoon, and Adam Ollas-Mattsson, I am confident we have one useful stay at home type in the making. It'd be nice to have prime Chris Pronger or Zdeno Chara, said EVERY team in the league.

Two years running of being the worst defensive team in the league points to the Flames defensemen being a pale comparison to the ones above that are puck moving defensemen that can play solid defense in their own end. Like I said in the original post the fact that he's a good skating defensemen that doesn't play defense well makes him already redundant on the Flames roster.

[bubbsy]

Having solid prospects trending to important roles for which are already filled is expected. That fits the whole best player available drafting model rather than drafting for need.