The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Nate wants us to leave the LA Times poll alone!

Well... yeah. It's a poll with a Republican house effect and/or poor sample (that they can't correct down the line). Make the obvious adjustment and move on. No need to rage hate on it, just use it as part of a trendline analysis.

[Street Pharmacist]

New Ipsos national polls show the trend is going back to Clinton

[ernie]

New Monmouth poll have Missouri within 1 point (Trump +1) and has been around that even mark for the past month. Missouri has voted republican each of the last 4 elections and only gone democrat three time since 1968 ('76, '92 and '96).

Everything I look at just seems to make it seem like Trump is going to have to play a lot of defense before he can even go on the offense and start flipping states.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

New Ipsos national polls show the trend is going back to Clinton

+12 for Clinton? That looks... outlierish compared other national polls, but not crazy improbable given where the state polls are at.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by octothorp

+12 for Clinton?

+8 is what I see.

[octothorp]

Ah, I was looking at the head-to-head, which is +12. The four-way race (which 538 uses for their aggregates) has it +8.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Ah, I was looking at the head-to-head, which is +12. The four-way race (which 538 uses for their aggregates) has it +8.

Trend is all I was talking about. 3 consecutive polls moving on Clinton's direction

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

New poll has Trump ahead by 2 in South Carolina.

That is normally a deep red state, so that result is actually pretty consistent with a national lead that is wider than the 4-5 points that was Obama's margin over Romney. To put it into context, that means Trump is leading in South Carolina by close to the margin that Romney beat Obama by in NORTH Carolina.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

New poll has Trump ahead by 2 in South Carolina.

That is normally a deep red state, so that result is actually pretty consistent with a national lead that is wider than the 4-5 points that was Obama's margin over Romney. To put it into context, that means Trump is leading in South Carolina by close to the margin that Romney beat Obama by in NORTH Carolina.

Yep. Like I said above, he's going to have to spend so much time, effort and money defending reliably red states it's hard to see how he starts turning blue states to red. Things will become much clearer after the first debate I think. At that point if Trump still can't actually lay out real and believable policies it'll truly be over.

And heck he's now starting to annoy Fox News....O'Reilly was apparently getting quite frustrated with him when he couldn't elaborate on any of his policies the other day. The usual word salad from Trump.

[GGG]

Trumps split of Red / Blue isn't traditional. He is trading the college educated whites for low income whites so demographicly a Red State isn't quite as red as with your generic republican. In theory this should help him in Ohio / Michigan / Pensylvania but hurt him elsewhere.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by ernie

Yep. Like I said above, he's going to have to spend so much time, effort and money defending reliably red states it's hard to see how he starts turning blue states to red. Things will become much clearer after the first debate I think. At that point if Trump still can't actually lay out real and believable policies it'll truly be over.

And heck he's now starting to annoy Fox News....O'Reilly was apparently getting quite frustrated with him when he couldn't elaborate on any of his policies the other day. The usual word salad from Trump.

This might not fit in this thread but I suspect Fox has been given the green light to target him. Having Ales and Brietbart on his team means he's a threat to Fox News now so if Fox can make him look like a loser it hurts his long term prospects.

[Kavvy]

I am concerned about violence after the election when Americans think Hillary cheated and rigged the election because he has told them that is the only way she could win Pennsylvania.

He is such a loser.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

New poll has Trump ahead by 2 in South Carolina.

That is normally a deep red state, so that result is actually pretty consistent with a national lead that is wider than the 4-5 points that was Obama's margin over Romney. To put it into context, that means Trump is leading in South Carolina by close to the margin that Romney beat Obama by in NORTH Carolina.

I read this post 3 times trying to figure out how there was such a dramatic swing. Then I realized you were talking about SOUTH Carolina. If this is accurate Trump is going to get demolished.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by GGG

Trumps split of Red / Blue isn't traditional. He is trading the college educated whites for low income whites so demographicly a Red State isn't quite as red as with your generic republican. In theory this should help him in Ohio / Michigan / Pensylvania but hurt him elsewhere.

Except it's a one way street from everything I can see. Red states are turning purple. Blue states are staying Blue and often strongly so.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by GGG

Trumps split of Red / Blue isn't traditional. He is trading the college educated whites for low income whites so demographicly a Red State isn't quite as red as with your generic republican. In theory this should help him in Ohio / Michigan / Pensylvania but hurt him elsewhere.

I agree with that as well. Anecdotally, I feel like Trump is particularly unpopular with the prim and proper southern republicans that make up significant portions of the population in GA, SC, NC, VA.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The next few weeks of polling should give the clearest sign of whether we are headed to a slaughter or whether this will be close. Trump is now finally taking some risk of alienating his supporters by shifting/softening/lying about his positions towards illegals, and I guess we can call it "wooing", but his wooing of African American voters has also happened. So if his numbers are still in the toilet in two weeks, his attempt didn't work and he's basically stuck with his base and not much else. And his hope then becomes hoping for a Hillary meltdown or Wikileaks/Russia miracle.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by ernie

Except it's a one way street from everything I can see. Red states are turning purple. Blue states are staying Blue and often strongly so.

Hey, 538 has a new article about this today!

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ve-red-states/

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by GGG

Trumps split of Red / Blue isn't traditional. He is trading the college educated whites for low income whites so demographicly a Red State isn't quite as red as with your generic republican. In theory this should help him in Ohio / Michigan / Pensylvania but hurt him elsewhere.

But that seems to be off-set by other folks in those states, including historically low polling amongst African Americans and Hispanics. Also, generally poor polling amongst women.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by ernie

Except it's a one way street from everything I can see. Red states are turning purple. Blue states are staying Blue and often strongly so.

In he 538 article, Enten shows that the map hasn't really been altered other than every state has become bluer this election by a bit which shifts a few over the line. No state is appreciably redder.

This likely has implications for future races in that there is no reshuffling of the polarized electoral map. It's only that every state is elastic to the national numbers which are heavily tilted to Clinton this cycle. Should the candidates be more typical next time, the electoral map will look like 2008 again.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I suppose if your a fan of piles you can throw Florida onto that... Clinton +14.

http://polls.saintleo.edu/survey-flo...for-president/

One day later, another poll has Trump up 2 in Florida....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/doc...ida_August.pdf