Alberta Politics Thread

[peter12]

If I was in the AUPE, and in my 20s, I would really be stashing the money away for the eventual reckoning.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Igniter

Look who is buying US oil

The article does not state where the US imports were used... but likely on the eastern side of the country.

The 53.5 million barrels of crude oil would represent approximately $2.4 billion based on the current oil price of $45/barrel (which it wasn't for most of the year - but looking to the future is a good benchmark).

That is $2.4 billion of trade deficit that could have come from within Canada. $2.4 billion that would have gone to into predominantly (not all) Canadian company pockets... safely employing Alberta workers, paying Albertan and Canadian income tax...

Oh and this has been since December of 2015. Assuming that this is up to end of month July, the minimum monthly import volume is 6.7 million barrels.

there really needs to be some protectionism by the Canadian government. A hardy screw you Eastern Canada your buying Oil from your own country.

Anyone that thinks that there was any kind of sincerity with the American Governments whole, we're going after Alberta Oil for the children and not doing Pipelines for the unicorns is fooling themselves. They effectively shut us down, built a ton of pipelines, upped their production and actively tried to kill any chance for us to sell our Oil and get it to market, either through direct means (lying on Keystone and the reasoning for denials), or other methods (Tides, Rockerfeller)

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by peter12

If I was in the AUPE, and in my 20s, I would really be stashing the money away for the eventual reckoning.

What reckoning, under the Conservative watch they were allowed to become tremendously powerful, under the NDP watch because of that they virtually can blackmail the government. The head of the AEUPE is in Notley's inner circles and regularly meets with the NDP government regularly, he admitted as much.

At the NDP convention, I believe he was one of the keynote speakers, and talked about wanting reform in terms of forced binding arbitration after a set period of time, so the Unions and in his words could "Kick the crap out of the organization that they're unhappy with, but not allow the organization to lock out their members"

At the end of the day, the only way that this is going to change is if the next government pulls a Telus or a Reagan and either actively tries to break the union punitively or finds a way to fire everyone if they go do a work stoppage.

[Red]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

there really needs to be some protectionism by the Canadian government. A hardy screw you Eastern Canada your buying Oil from your own country.

Anyone that thinks that there was any kind of sincerity with the American Governments whole, we're going after Alberta Oil for the children and not doing Pipelines for the unicorns is fooling themselves. They effectively shut us down, built a ton of pipelines, upped their production and actively tried to kill any chance for us to sell our Oil and get it to market, either through direct means (lying on Keystone and the reasoning for denials), or other methods (Tides, Rockerfeller)

Yes, we should call it NEP 2.0 while we are at it.

Somewhat surprising stance from someone who paints himself as right wing. Or maybe I am misunderstanding to what level you want the government to interfere.

[Frequitude]

I spoke to the Fraser Institute today and it was in fact a clerical error. The % numbers have been fixed in the current report.

[puckedoff]

Protectionism is the last thing I want because if the Government sticks their nose in it they will undoubtedly screw it up.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

I spoke to the Fraser Institute today and it was in fact a clerical error. The % numbers have been fixed in the current report.

Looks much better, though I'm not sure how something as obvious as -4282% would slip through.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Red

Yes, we should call it NEP 2.0 while we are at it.

Somewhat surprising stance from someone who paints himself as right wing. Or maybe I am misunderstanding to what level you want the government to interfere.

Basically as a resource country, it should be encouraged that we buy and use our own resources first and foremost.

Ontario spends their time complaining about the Oil Sands while buying Oil that comes up through pipelines and trains in the US through fragile environments, or via Oil tankers from the Middle East or South America or the Southern US.

From a logic standpoint, they are literally ok in risking the environment as long as it doesn't come from this province, its a stupid stance.

Why is it ok to ship Oil up the St Lawrence via Tanker, but its not ok to have a safer pipeline from Alberta? I mean Justin himself put the ban in place for West Coast tankers that could have taken Alberta Oil and energy products to the far east, but the feds seem to be ok, with Tankers on the east coast bringing Oil in.

Even if its not true protectionism that I'm looking for, its a more fair and common sense approach to things.

Why are we bringing in about 84,000 barrels or Oil a day from Saudi Arabia into New Brunswick. Why is Ontario, Quebec and NFLD and New Brunswick bringing in 650,000 barrels of Oil a day from out of country, from Saudi Arabia, the US and others, and that's up about 63,000 barrels a day from 2012 (read it in the financial post). Does the Eastern Part of Canada view Saudi Arabia as a better friend to them then Alberta? Is it ok to tanker oil over the ocean that has been deemed fragile instead of piping it over land?

Why are we bringing in Oil from dirtier producers like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and the US?

Quebec is fighting Energy East (probably because we're not bribing them) in the meantime, they're dumping sewage into the fresh water lakes, oh and bringing in Oil by trains from the States. So much for worrying about Carbon Emissions, as even the Keystone report by the US State department stated that pipelines were cleaner and lower emission then trains.

Its a stupid policy,

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Red

Yes, we should call it NEP 2.0 while we are at it.

Somewhat surprising stance from someone who paints himself as right wing. Or maybe I am misunderstanding to what level you want the government to interfere.

Protectionism is hardly a leftist only trait. See Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and NAFTA. It is more of a populism thing.

What needs to be done is the government interfering less by allowing pipelines to be built since the NEB said they are in our countries self interest. Then get the heck out of the way and watch it become more beneficial economically to use domestic vs. international oil. Heck at current exchange we have a 25% advantage over US Oil from the get go.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Looks much better, though I'm not sure how something as obvious as -4282% would slip through.

Outsourced editing.

[Tacopuck]

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politi...-fiscal-update

2016Q1 update, deficit up $500M to $10.9B - blames wildfire

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Tacopuck

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politi...-fiscal-update

2016Q1 update, deficit up $500M to $10.9B - blames wildfire

"Ceci has had to increase borrowing strictly for operations from $5.3 billion to $7 billion."

[Tacopuck]

A good summary of the budget update from the Alberta Party:

http://abpartycaucus.ca/clark-says-n...ecord-deficit/

Backgrounder
2016 Fiscal Year Q1 Update
Income statement deficit increased by $527 million to $10.9 Billion
Revenue increases by $708 million
Mainly due to higher WTI price
Personal income tax revenue is $215 million higher than budgeted
Corporate income tax revenue is $877 million lower than budgeted
NRRR is $744 million more than budgeted
Transfers from the government of Canada increased by $652 million from budget
Expenses increased by $1.2 Billion
$816 million is for wood buffalo firefighting and DRP expenses
$100 million is increased health expense
Mainly due to higher volumes for benefits programs, and increased drug costs
Balance sheet
Net financial assets dropped $14.5 Billion from 2015 FY
This is a $474 million decline from 2016 budget
Total debt is now at $32 Billion (was $30.5 Billion at budget)
Debt-GDP ratio increases from 9.9% in budget to 10.2%
Total debt was $20 Billion for 2015 FY
Capital Plan
Total capital plan increases by $245 million
Mainly due to re-profiling of funds from previous year
Debt Servicing Costs
Increased by $37 million from budget
Mainly due to increased borrowing due to cash position
Contingency Account
Cash position has significantly weakened
This is leading to an increase in borrowing from $5.4 billion to $7.1 billion ($1.7 billion more)
Decrease of $850 million in cash from budget due to timing differences between accruals and cash collections
Loss of $695 million in cash that was to be transferred from previous fiscal year
Economic Indicators
WTI projection has increased from $42/bbl to $45/bbl (7%)
Differential has decreased from $15.20/bbl to $14.10/bbl (-7%)
Crude production has decreased from 524,000 bbl/day to 468,000 bbl/day (-11%)
Bitumen production has decreased from 2,668,000 bbl/day to 2,557,000 bbl/day (-4%)
Exchange rate projection has increased from 73.5 USD/CDN to 77.0 USD/CDN (4.8%)
GDP decreased by 1.6% nominally, 3.6 % in real terms (accounting for inflation)
Average weekly earnings dropped 2 percentage points
Primary household income dropped 1.6 percentage points
Net Corporate Operating Surplus dropped 8.8 percentage points

Corporate income tax down $877M despite raising the corporate tax rate. WHO OH WHO COULD HAVE FORSEEN THIS.....

[Robbob]

ouch. Sad thing is that 58 billion is probably on the very low side.

"$32.2 billion — Alberta’s estimated debt Expected to climb to $58 billion by 2019"

http://www.660news.com/2016/08/23/fi...fiscal-update/

[CaptainCrunch]

So corporate income tax decreased though they increased the rate? Wonder how many companies have shuttered this year, or seen a big drop in revenues?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Tacopuck

A good summary of the budget update from the Alberta Party:

http://abpartycaucus.ca/clark-says-n...ecord-deficit/



Corporate income tax down $877M despite raising the corporate tax rate. WHO OH WHO COULD HAVE FORSEEN THIS.....

Forest fires

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

"Ceci has had to increase borrowing strictly for operations from $5.3 billion to $7 billion."

This makes me furious.

If the government was a business, they would have been laughed out of the meeting with their financiers, and be declaring bankruptcy.

Banks sh*t bricks when you borrow to cover operations cost. Why is no one pointing that out to these idiots? It's ok because they were voted in, therefore have carte blanche to write themselves massive cheques? Or do they not understand simple financial math?

"Revenue minus costs is a negative. Hmmmm I know, let's write a cheque from our LOC to pay ourselves more! Double meat day boys"!!

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Tacopuck

A good summary of the budget update from the Alberta Party:

http://abpartycaucus.ca/clark-says-n...ecord-deficit/



Corporate income tax down $877M despite raising the corporate tax rate. WHO OH WHO COULD HAVE FORSEEN THIS.....

I guess the argument could be that it would have gone down more if the rate hadn't gone up.

[Tacopuck]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I guess the argument could be that it would have gone down more if the rate hadn't gone up.

Maybe, but at least more people would still have jobs.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

This makes me furious.

If the government was a business, they would have been laughed out of the meeting with their financiers, and be declaring bankruptcy.

Banks sh*t bricks when you borrow to cover operations cost. Why is no one pointing that out to these idiots? It's ok because they were voted in, therefore have carte blanche to write themselves massive cheques? Or do they not understand simple financial math?

"Revenue minus costs is a negative. Hmmmm I know, let's write a cheque from our LOC to pay ourselves more! Double meat day boys"!!

As much as the government wants to deny it, they are going to have to start cutting serious costs, they can't keep borrowing at an ever increasing rate just to keep their voter base employed.