08-22-2016, 11:03 AM
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#421
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
There have been a significant number of contracts signed this summer by young players that would fit your narrative:
MacKinnon, Schiefele, Forsberg, Barkov, Tarsenko, and now Monahan
The best comparables out of that group are likely Forsberg and Tarasenko, as they are wingers. We could probably include MacKinnon as well, as he has played wing for much of his career.
I would argue that STL overpaid for Tarasenko, when you compare his contract to all the others.
I would further argue that Gaudreau deserves something in between what Forsberg and Tarasenko got.
Anyone that thinks that Gaudreau deserves significantly more than the group above, is likely going to be disappointed.
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I agree with you completely, it's not like Gaudreau is the first of this group to get a contract, but we are still very much in the infancy stage. Also, let me be clear, short of Calgary signing him to such a low ball deal that the relationship sours (which isn't even a possibility) I'm hoping we lock him up long term for as little as possible.
But even when I look at your list of comparables, and all your points are very valid IMO of where he fits, I can also see a side to the argument from the Gaudreau camp that he's the best of the names on that list, and will be the best from that list moving forward. Maybe it's my Flames goggles, but if you forced me right now to pick who's going to be the most likely to emerge as a clutch difference maker on that list, I'd pick Johnny. Given these long term deals are all based around "potential" I don't doubt for a second that Gaudreau and his agent see if the way I just suggested, and are looking to get paid the most out of everyone on that list...........and I'm not sure they are out to lunch in asking for that. Especially when you think about the added factor of Marketability to the franchise............Johnny tops that list IMO by a long shot as well. Lots of legit reasons for his camp to be asking to get paid more, just as the Flames have lots of ammo to pull him between Forsberg and Tarasenko as you suggest.
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08-22-2016, 11:06 AM
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#422
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
How is Tarasenko overpaid? He's easily the best offensive player from that group of players, and Gaudreau is even better.
I'm not even sure how you can say that he deserves something between Forsberg and anybody. He's been a much more productive player than Forsberg. There is no comparison to be made there.
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Tarasenko is not easily better than all the others.
Arguements can be made for each of them in different ways. Even if one believed that Tarsenko was in fact the best player of the group, the difference in his cap hit compared to the others is still unjustified. His cap hit suggests that he is significantly better than all the others. And that is highly debatable, to say the least.
You love Gaudreau, and that is great. You believe that he will continue to get better and better. And that is great. We all want that. And we all expect that.
But do you believe things are any different in Nashville? Preds fans no doubt are very confident that Forsberg will continue to get better and better. They have every reason to believe that he (along with Tarasenko) will be one of the best RWs in the game over the next decade. And who would argue with them?
We all believe that Johnny will be one of the best players in the league for years to come. But fans in other cities feel the same way about their players. At the end of the day, thy are all in a similar boat.
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08-22-2016, 11:10 AM
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#423
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
How is Tarasenko overpaid? He's easily the best offensive player from that group of players, and Gaudreau is even better.
I'm not even sure how you can say that he deserves something between Forsberg and anybody. He's been a much more productive player than Forsberg. There is no comparison to be made there.
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This is patently false. Gaudreau was more productive in his second year than was Forsberg, and he and Forsberg were essentially even in their first year. Forsberg is a damn good player, and he and Gaudreau are both pretty closely comparable.
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08-22-2016, 11:14 AM
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#424
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
This is patently false. Gaudreau was more productive in his second year than was Forsberg, and he and Forsberg were essentially even in their first year. Forsberg is a damn good player, and he and Gaudreau are both pretty closely comparable.
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Don't disagree that Forsberg is a great young player, but there is a clear difference between him and Johnny. He outpaced him by like 17 points this year. That's a significant difference in today's league
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08-22-2016, 11:18 AM
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#425
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
Don't disagree that Forsberg is a great young player, but there is a clear difference between him and Johnny. He outpaced him by like 17 points this year. That's a significant difference in today's league
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He's also 6'1" 205 lbs, plays RW, and plays a very physical game.
Lots to debate about all of these players - stop being such a homer about it
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08-22-2016, 11:21 AM
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#426
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
Don't disagree that Forsberg is a great young player, but there is a clear difference between him and Johnny. He outpaced him by like 17 points this year. That's a significant difference in today's league
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In ONE SEASON. I personally think that Gaudreau is the better player between the two, but I am also not so naive to think that I am absolutely correct about this based on his better numbers from only their second season in the league. Again, based on their age, experience and results, it is not a stretch to expect Gaudreau to be fielding offers from the Flames that are in the range of Forsberg's deal, and this is because they are closely comparable players at this stage in their respective careers.
And before you freak out with pontifications about how "careless" Flames management is for not merely surrendering their chequebook and a pen to Gaudreau's agent with instructions to fill in the blanks, please continue to bear in mind that this is an on going negotiation. Both sides are working their asses off to arrive at the best deal that makes the most sense for them. Ultimately, it will get done.
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08-22-2016, 11:27 AM
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#427
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
In ONE SEASON. I personally think that Gaudreau is the better player between the two, but I am also not so naive to think that I am absolutely correct about this based on his better numbers from only their second season in the league. Again, based on their age, experience and results, it is not a stretch to expect Gaudreau to be fielding offers from the Flames that are in the range of Forsberg's deal, and this is because they are closely comparable players at this stage in their respective careers.
And before you freak out with pontifications about how "careless" Flames management is for not merely surrendering their chequebook and a pen to Gaudreau's agent with instructions to fill in the blanks, please continue to bear in mind that this is an on going negotiation. Both sides are working their asses off to arrive at the best deal that makes the most sense for them. Ultimately, it will get done.
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Including playoffs, Forsberg's career PPG average is that of a 58 point player. Gaudreau is a 73 point player. That's over 202 and 171 career games for each guy, respectively. So Gaudreau has been 26% more productive over their entire careers and is still on an upward trend.
If he is getting offers at FF money, its no wonder they are still miles apart. I am hopeful a deal gets done soon, but if this is the thought process Treliving is using, then I am concerned that it will be late October and we won't have a signed Johnny.
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08-22-2016, 11:53 AM
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#428
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GOAT!
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I know people like to focus on the fact that he's only just come off his sophomore season, and therefore the sample size is limited... but that's what happened when we decided to eat up an entire year of his ELC but letting him play in a nothing game the day we signed him. So now we're in a position where we only have a very good rookie season and one season in the top 10 to work with while negotiating his first real NHL contract.
(I think he's the real deal, but I'm just pointing out that we made our bed and now we have to stfu and eat our crackers in it too.)
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08-22-2016, 12:16 PM
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#429
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FanIn80
I know people like to focus on the fact that he's only just come off his sophomore season, and therefore the sample size is limited... but that's what happened when we decided to eat up an entire year of his ELC but letting him play in a nothing game the day we signed him. So now we're in a position where we only have a very good rookie season and one season in the top 10 to work with while negotiating his first real NHL contract.
(I think he's the real deal, but I'm just pointing out that we made our bed and now we have to stfu and eat our crackers in it too.)
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That one year didn't matter at all in terms of his RFA situation. If we signed him to an ELC that next year, it would only be a two year contract because of his age.
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08-22-2016, 12:17 PM
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#430
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Celebrated Square Root Day
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheScorpion
Guys, are we really debating the semantics of what really defines an 80-point player? Even for the summer, this is weeeeeak.
And Cro, you can't be talking straight if you don't believe Gaudreau will be more than a career 60-point player.
Tarasenko money is absolutely appropriate. I just want Johnny to get money. He really deserves it. He's been playing hard against odds since he was a kid. I really, really hope the Flames' brass pays him.
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Are you a Flames fan or a fan of Flames players? You really seem to fall into the second category a lot with your weird love ins with certain players.
If you're a Flames fan, you should be hoping for a fair deal that favors the Flames cap situation, so the team can continue to build towards being a contender.
Your post reads like those player fan boys on HFboards that don't cheer for teams, just young star players and are always hoping they get serious money because they're so awesome.
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08-22-2016, 12:20 PM
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#431
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First round-bust
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: speculating about AHL players
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayswin
Are you a Flames fan or a fan of Flames players? You really seem to fall into the second category a lot with your weird love ins with certain players.
If you're a Flames fan, you should be hoping for a fair deal that favors the Flames cap situation, so the team can continue to build towards being a contender.
Your post reads like those player fan boys on HFboards that don't cheer for teams, just young star players and are always hoping they get serious money because they're so awesome.
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I guess I got a little carried away there. I want to see the Flames get a good deal to keep ample room for the Bennett contract next year. I just think Johnny is a real good kid who deserves every penny he gets, that's all.
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08-22-2016, 12:27 PM
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#432
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheScorpion
I guess I got a little carried away there. I want to see the Flames get a good deal to keep ample room for the Bennett contract next year. I just think Johnny is a real good kid who deserves every penny he gets, that's all.
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Even if he gets $8MM like some are suggesting? Time would tell of course, but I don't see Johnny being a 90 point guy and therefore worth $8MM. I think he's a 75 to 85 point guy in his prime.
Would love to see him get 100. But that is pretty crazy and not even Iggy got to 100.
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08-22-2016, 12:31 PM
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#433
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First round-bust
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: speculating about AHL players
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
Even if he gets $8MM like some are suggesting? Time would tell of course, but I don't see Johnny being a 90 point guy and therefore worth $8MM. I think he's a 75 to 85 point guy in his prime.
Would love to see him get 100. But that is pretty crazy and not even Iggy got to 100.
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Iggy got 98 and 96 points in separate seasons. Would an extra million on his $7 million contract of old be justified if he'd scored two and four more points in those respective seasons?
Johnny is an 80-point player right now, and with the right linemates he could easily hit 90, IMO. I have no problem paying him $8 million as a fan. But as a GM, I have to think in the interests of every young star on my team.
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08-22-2016, 12:33 PM
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#434
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FanIn80
...(I think he's the real deal, but I'm just pointing out that we made our bed and now we have to stfu and eat our crackers in it too.)
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My only stake in this is the hope that Flames management are doing their due diligence and making the best deal they possible can. Of course, I think we all agree that Gaudreau is a very valuable player, but it is in no way hypocritical or ignorant to also hope that the Flames are able to work out a great deal for the team. Beginning their negotiations in the ballpark of $8 m is a sure way to see that that doesn't happen.
In the end, I think Gaudreau will sign long term in the range between $6.8–7.3 m; the lower that number is the happier I will be.
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08-22-2016, 12:37 PM
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#435
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheScorpion
Iggy got 98 and 96 points in separate seasons. Would an extra million on his $7 million contract of old be justified if he'd scored two and four more points in those respective seasons?
Johnny is an 80-point player right now, and with the right linemates he could easily hit 90, IMO. I have no problem paying him $8 million as a fan. But as a GM, I have to think in the interests of every young star on my team.
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The way I view it is Johnny will bring 80 points to the table. And that is awesome.
But in Iggy's heydey, if he wasn't putting up points and scoring goals, he could still change the momentum of the game. He'd crash and bang to create energy. He'd verbally motivate his team. If all else failed, he'd pick the toughest, biggest guy on the other team and beat the snot out of him to motivate his team. Iggy did it all, and that's why he was regarded as one of the best, and will surely go down in history as a legendary player. I think intangibles play a part, and players get paid for them.
If Johnny goes on a cold streak points wise, what else does he bring to the table? Again, I love Johnny and his play as much as the next guy, but Bennett will also need to get paid and the pie is only so big.
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08-22-2016, 12:41 PM
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#436
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: stuck in BC watching the nucks
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I am likely to be flamed for this. I think a fair deal is important, yet I also can't stop myself from thinking they are all over paid doing what they love. I completely get the fact that this is what the market is for what they do, but again is an NHL player going to starve to death or lose his house if he is going to get 7 million instead of 8 coming off his ELC. Not likely. Anyway I honestly won't feel bad for him if he signs for 7 million when he could have maybe received 8 million. Again just my opinion and personal view of it.
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08-22-2016, 12:46 PM
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#437
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First round-bust
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: speculating about AHL players
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
The way I view it is Johnny will bring 80 points to the table. And that is awesome.
But in Iggy's heydey, if he wasn't putting up points and scoring goals, he could still change the momentum of the game. He'd crash and bang to create energy. He'd verbally motivate his team. If all else failed, he'd pick the toughest, biggest guy on the other team and beat the snot out of him to motivate his team. Iggy did it all, and that's why he was regarded as one of the best, and will surely go down in history as a legendary player. I think intangibles play a part, and players get paid for them.
If Johnny goes on a cold streak points wise, what else does he bring to the table? Again, I love Johnny and his play as much as the next guy, but Bennett will also need to get paid and the pie is only so big.
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So what you're saying is that Johnny has no intangibles? That's a little harsh.
I agree with you in that I don't think Johnny will be as all-around spectacular as Jarome was. He could take over a game like few I've ever seen.
Jarome didn't elevate his linemates like Johnny does, though. Monahan is a star player, but he's always looked his best when he's playing with Johnny. Jiri Hudler turned into a one-hit wonder star player with Johnny. Their chemistry together has been and is still worth a lot of money. Iginla rarely had that level of click with anyone. Cammalleri for that one year in 08-09, and... Conroy in 2002, maybe? Johnny's meshing with his linemates is a great intangible. Johnny's also a better scorer than Jarome for his age. Iggy could score a ton of goals, but Johnny's a better playmaker with softer hands. And come on, Johnny isn't Rene Bourque. He doesn't have stretches of 3, 4 games without scoring often. He's an amazing talent who will only improve as he gets older.
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08-22-2016, 12:49 PM
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#438
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cole436
That one year didn't matter at all in terms of his RFA situation. If we signed him to an ELC that next year, it would only be a two year contract because of his age.
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That's not correct. He was considered a 21 year-old signing, which is a three-year entry-level contract. That would not have changed if his contract had started the next season.
The ELC length doesn't drop to two years until the player is 22.
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Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
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08-22-2016, 12:50 PM
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#439
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaikorven
I am likely to be flamed for this. I think a fair deal is important, yet I also can't stop myself from thinking they are all over paid doing what they love. I completely get the fact that this is what the market is for what they do, but again is an NHL player going to starve to death or lose his house if he is going to get 7 million instead of 8 coming off his ELC. Not likely. Anyway I honestly won't feel bad for him if he signs for 7 million when he could have maybe received 8 million. Again just my opinion and personal view of it.
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I used to think like that actually. But the thing is, the owners are greedy. I have no problem with players and agents scratching and clawing for more money wherever they can, because if they don't, the money just goes to the owners who are exceedingly wealthy already. The salary cap was a huge win for the owners, and that's why we lost an entire season of hockey (in the middle of Iggy's prime too).
At the end of the day, the players are the product. They should get paid.
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08-22-2016, 01:18 PM
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#440
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
I used to think like that actually. But the thing is, the owners are greedy. I have no problem with players and agents scratching and clawing for more money wherever they can, because if they don't, the money just goes to the owners who are exceedingly wealthy already. The salary cap was a huge win for the owners, and that's why we lost an entire season of hockey (in the middle of Iggy's prime too).
At the end of the day, the players are the product. They should get paid.
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Actually under the collective bargaining agreement the players get 50% no matter what. So whether or not the owners are greedy doesn't really matter. A player competing for a higher Salary is really competing against fellow players for a larger slice of the fixed size pie.
Though the true star players really should push for high dollars because they are worth more to their teams then overpaid 3rd/4th liners.
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