The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[Street Pharmacist]

Bret Baird has been on the "No the polls aren't rigged" train too

[Street Pharmacist]

Interesting subject on a POTUS round table type show on XM. A seriously Trump leaning moderator asked his Black panel member what he thought of Trump's appeal to African American voters. Another person's answer was interesting.

The black panel member said it's true that democrats have not maybe been the best friend to blacks, but the Republicans have been openly adversarial. He said "we can't be worse than your last boyfriend" isn't a good pick up line. The real interesting part is he didn't think the appeal was meant for blacks at all.

Another member of the panel was a pollster and he said the appeal to black voters was aimed at moderate independent white women. He went on to explain you do not need any minority votes if you get enough of the white vote. You have lots of independent voters (especially women) lean Republican but are afraid of the racist overtones. They don't want to be racist, so by appealing to blacks, they may be comfortable with Trump if he appears to care about the black vote. Trump can meanwhile still give his core what they want.

[Displaced Flames fan]

IFF....have you looked at the criteria for candidates to get into the debates and if so, do you think Johnson will poll well enough to get the opportunity?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I haven't looked at it in detail, but if memory serves there is a threshold of 15% in a handful of specifically selected polls. I don't think Johnson gets there, but I'm not sure when they look at it.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I haven't looked at it in detail, but if memory serves there is a threshold of 15% in a handful of specifically selected polls. I don't think Johnson gets there, but I'm not sure when they look at it.

They discussed it at length in a POTUS show and you are correct. I don't remember which polls they require 15%, but they are the standard older pollsters

[Displaced Flames fan]

Mid-September is the first look. Then they will re-evaluate prior to each debate.

[driveway]

A Calgary-based firm called CEPEX has just released a poll (their first ever) of Pennsylvania which has Trump up +5, which is a 16 point swing since Pennsylvania was last polled.

http://www.projectexecution.consulting/cepexpoll/

[Senator Clay Davis]

Credit to CEPEX here. Trump supporters are effectively cult members, and you can totally see some of them using CEPEX's other services if they keep pumping out favorable polls to Trump. After all Trump supporters think the LA Times poll is the Bible, and they of course should hate the LA Times as both a liberal and mainstream media source, but they cling to it instead. Definitely an opportunity for businesses everywhere to grift some money off Trump supporters. No doubt there's fake "Make America Great Again" gear all over the place too.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by driveway

A Calgary-based firm called CEPEX has just released a poll (their first ever) of Pennsylvania which has Trump up +5, which is a 16 point swing since Pennsylvania was last polled.

http://www.projectexecution.consulting/cepexpoll/

At least they disclose their flawed methodology.

Land Line only
Robo not live.
English only
No adjustment for demographics except for women.
Registered voters not likely voters
No undivided choice
No third parties
No randomization of choice order

So if you had to develop a poll to ensure that old white men would answer it. This one would probably be a good place to start.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Trump up by 1 according to the latest LA Times poll.

RCP has the gap closing again.

[GGG]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...te-polls-dont/


Silvers take on recent results

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Trump up by 1 according to the latest LA Times poll.

RCP has the gap closing again.

LA Times methodology is flawed according to pretty much everyone because it does not properly sample people. Skews things to the right significantly.

[Senator Clay Davis]

You would think that CEPEX poll would be obviously full of #### not even Trump supporters would buy it, but sure enough they're running with it now. Best part of the whole thing though? The initial report they cite has now been deleted. Where did that initial report come from? From a San Diego CBS affiliate. So a San Diego TV station reported on a fake poll from a Canadian pollster, who has never polled once before this, on a poll that has to do with Pennsylvania. Ok then.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

LA Times methodology is flawed according to pretty much everyone because it does not properly sample people. Skews things to the right significantly.

The Economist and Reuters have her up 5 and 6 respectively. Down from 8-9 of last week.

LAT might be flawed, but the gap is closing.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

The Economist and Reuters have her up 5 and 6 respectively. Down from 8-9 of last week.

LAT might be flawed, but the gap is closing.

Nationally the gap is closing. While Nate points to state polls that aren't showing that effect, it's worth noting that there's been relatively few, and while they were released around the same time, most of them were earlier windows so they weren't capturing the same time period.

Trump's pivot is helping. It's hard to think it'll be near enough, but it's improving nonetheless

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

The Economist and Reuters have her up 5 and 6 respectively. Down from 8-9 of last week.

LAT might be flawed, but the gap is closing.

As mentioned in the other thread though, state numbers are getting worse for him which makes the closing national numbers irrelevant. Need to win the electoral college, and right now he's on track to do the same or worse than Romney did.

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Trump's pivot is helping. It's hard to think it'll be near enough, but it's improving nonetheless

Considering he's already gone off pivot, I suspect his numbers will never improve anywhere near enough. He's on track to have at least 10 more pivots before the election is over. By that point I suspect most people will realize he's just a grifter.

[octothorp]

I think the most significant poll over the weekend was the CBS Ohio poll, which shows Clinton growing her lead there over the previous CBS poll there. But it also shows Portman leading by a relatively wide margin in the senate race. Looking into the numbers, there's a sizeable chunk of independents who selected Portman/Clinton. Both Portman and Clinton are increasing their leads over their respective opponents.

This is clearly at least partially the repercussions of Trump getting into a spat with Portman and Kasich during the convention. But now Portman has little motivation in helping Trump out, since he's successfully uncoupled himself from Trump. Trump needs to appeal to those people who sided with Portman and Kasich, without insulting those guys, but probably without their help, either.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I think the most significant poll over the weekend was the CBS Ohio poll, which shows Clinton growing her lead there over the previous CBS poll there. But it also shows Portman leading by a relatively wide margin in the senate race.

Portman has a big war chest (most $$ among any senate candidate in a competitive race), he's also an incumbant, a former congressman, member of the Bush administration). To that extent he has his own brand and he'll probably keep his seat.

[Senator Clay Davis]

There's a new Monmouth poll that shows not endorsing Trump was really smart by Kasich. 38% think more highly of him for not endorsing, versus 17% who think less of him. Also in a head to head he beats Hillary 57-33 in Ohio, just to show what a disaster Trump is for the GOP. Only a one state example yes, but Trump as nominee is a 20 point swing negatively.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I have felt for a long time that Kasich was the most "electable" candidate the GOP had, and thought he would crush Clinton in a general election. Obviously Ohio also gives him "home field advantage" but I continue to believe that. I guess we will never know, but winning Ohio is basically a must for Republicans.