[Signing] Flames sign Monahan (7 yrs, $6.375 mil AAV)

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Never heard Huberdeau, a playmaking winger, compared to Monahan before.

Yeah, Huberdeau career high for goals is 20 which he got last year. During his ELC years his best was 15.

[IgiTang]

Don't know if asked or and answered, but I assume there is a NTC, but is it a full or limited?

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Don't know if asked or and answered, but I assume there is a NTC, but is it a full or limited?

Last 3 years limited NTC. Selects 10 teams each year that he can't be traded to.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Yeah, Huberdeau career high for goals is 20 which he got last year. During his ELC years his best was 15.

Hurbedeau won the Calder and was the leading scorer on his team the last year of his ELC..... 54 pts to 44 for the second highest player He was also a +10 on a team that ranged from -19 to +12.... maybe not quite as good as Monahan but definitely a young star.

The thing is that the way the CBA was negotiated he basically had to sign for whatever the Panthers wanted to pay him or sit out a year and/or go play in Europe.

There are not a lot of teams at this point in the year that would be in a position (their own draft picks and cap room) to make him an offer sheet with an offer that the Flames (or Panthers) would not easily match.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

What are the Flames paying for Monahan's UFA years?

The going rate for a 21 year old star player coming off ELC would be set by Hurbedeau's 3.25 M x 2. This is what the Flames could get away with if they were not worried about good will. After that 2 year deal then Monahan is a RFA with arbitration rights.

Similar to Hurbedeau there are not a lot of teams that would make a offer sheet that would likely be matched.

Hard to say what an arbitration would come up as the closest precedence would be Marcus Johanasson who was awarded 3.9M coming off a 20 goal 47 pts seasons

Monahan should/would have better numbers than that if he stays as the Flames #1C and is not passed by Bennett in the next 2 years. But say he would be awarded 6M x 2 .

That would give the Flames 4 years of Monahan services for 18.5 M

That leaves the 3 UFA years the Flames have on this contract for 26.125 or 8.7 x 3. currently tied for #6 spot cap hit with Crosby for forwards just a bit more than Stamkos just signed for last month as a UFA.

The Flames benefit by averaging out the cap hit and reducing it over the last 3 years by 2.4M /year.

They take on the risk that Monahan might not become a Stamkos/Crosby/Kopitar/Getzlaff/Perry kind of player that would be an 8.7 x 3 kind of UFA signing.


It just seems that as soon as the lock out finishes the GMs (and Agents) start working on how to spend more money and extend the cap and don't take advantage of the tools they bargained for.

What are the odds that Monahan is a 8.7 M UFA in 4 seasons?


The extra year that the Flames got over Barkov's contract cost 9.225M

I think you have the risk wrong. The Flames are likely at risk of overpaying Monahan at the front end of this contract, not at the back half. He doesn't need to be "Crosby" in the last three years of this deal to justify it (not that 8.7 is even going to be what the elite UFAs make in 4 years, might be much higher). The whole point is to overpay for these players now so that their cap hits allow flexibility when they actually hit their prime to help compliment them.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

With all this talk about "buying" UFA years, its interesting that those years are the cheapest on the deal.

Those years are the cheapest for a couple of reasons. The total of the contract gets agreed upon and then they start splitting it up. The player wants as much of that in the first few years because of the time value of money. Some teams also want it like that so they can trade the player at the end of the contract to a team needing a higher cap hit than the cash paid. The 7uongo contract was the most extreme one, and the reason the variance between the 1st and last year is restricted. If a player gets injured or wants to retire, it's preferable for them to already have the money paid, rather than hanging on to make the money in the last years of the contract.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

I think you have the risk wrong. The Flames are likely at risk of overpaying Monahan at the front end of this contract, not at the back half. He doesn't need to be "Crosby" in the last three years of this deal to justify it (not that 8.7 is even going to be what the elite UFAs make in 4 years, might be much higher). The whole point is to overpay for these players now so that their cap hits allow flexibility when they actually hit their prime to help compliment them.

exactly.... overpay now so keep the cap hit lower in 5 years!! If they kept the price down now then Monahan would HAVE to be at a Crosby/Stamkos level in 4 years to actually get paid the 8.7 M for the last 3 years.

Right now the odds of Monahan being better than Crosby/Stamkos (ie 10M player) are a lot longer than him being a Lucic/Ladd/Cammalleri/Okopsos level player (6x6/7)

[the2bears]

^^^^ I can't even tell if you think this is a good contract or a bad one.

[Vulcan]

The more I think about it this is a very fair contract when compared to his contemporaries. This is one of the few Flames who has made the team as an 18 year old and has shown steady progress . Can someone name another other than maybe Bennett? Even Iginla didn't make the team until he was 19.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by MisterJoji

One should probably never compare salary and contracts with the Oilers but he only making $375,000 more than RNH and Eberle. That's some decent value.

For the sake of argument, here are some comparative numbers against the Oilers' contracts.

Hall and Eberle signed their deals for the 2013/14 season. Comparing the cap against that season, $6M then equates to $6.81M now.

So Monahan's deal is cheaper than Hall's.

Eberle's deal is only 6 years, so Monahan's deal is substantially better value than Eberle's (ignoring the fact that Eberle is a 2nd rate player).

RNH's deal started the next season. So his deal equates to $6.35M today.

tl;dr

Monahan deal is roughly equal cost to RNH.
Monahan deal cheaper than Hall's
Monahan deal much cheaper than Eberle's

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

For the sake of argument, here are some comparative numbers against the Oilers' contracts.

Hall and Eberle signed their deals for the 2013/14 season. Comparing the cap against that season, $6M then equates to $6.81M now.

So Monahan's deal is cheaper than Hall's.

Eberle's deal is only 6 years, so Monahan's deal is substantially better value than Eberle's (ignoring the fact that Eberle is a 2nd rate player).

RNH's deal started the next season. So his deal equates to $6.35M today.

tl;dr

Monahan deal is roughly equal cost to RNH.
Monahan deal cheaper than Hall's
Monahan deal much cheaper than Eberle's

Are you trying to highlight the risks?

When Eberle signed is 6x6 he was coming off his 21 year old season (same season Monahan just finished) and he had more 7 more goals 34 to Monahan's 27, 9 more pts 76 to 67 in 3 less games.... He was a +4 to Monahan's -6 (both on crappy +/- teams) . His best season, and very likely his career season happened when he was 21.

Eberle had a solid reputation as a clutch player scoring big goals.

His future at 21 was every bit as bright as Monahan's is today.

There would be no argument that the Oliers would have been far better off not extending him and then signing him to a 2x3 M show me deal the next summer. Eberle never earned close to his 6 M in the 3 out of the 4 RFA years he has burned so far and the Oilers have him for another RFA year plus 2 UFA years at 6M. They overpaid him for his 4 RFA years by 3M / season and will overpay him by 2M for his 2 UFA years.

He and RHN are the real life examples of not giving 21 year olds 6M deals for their RFA years.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by the2bears

^^^^ I can't even tell if you think this is a good contract or a bad one.

It is what the going rate for what GMs are handing out..so it is a no a bad contract in comparison ... They are all paying too much. More than what the lockout negotiated CBA tools give them. There will be some teams that will be out of the playoffs for a decade because they over estimated the development and are saddled with poor value contracts.


For every Toews and Kane that actually earns the crazy big money as 21 year olds there will be 3-4 Evander Kanes, Bogosians, Eberle, RNH, Hodgson, Skinner who does not play up to their 21 year old potential..... The odds are against these contracts working out.

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

The more I think about it this is a very fair contract when compared to his contemporaries. This is one of the few Flames who has made the team as an 18 year old and has shown steady progress . Can someone name another other than maybe Bennett? Even Iginla didn't make the team until he was 19.

I get where you're going as he was traded after Dallas sent him back to Kamloops, but Iginla debuted in playoffs with Flames as an 18 yr old. Turned 19 that summer of course when he was added full time to Flames roster the following season.

[Finger Cookin]

Same age, but the Oilers extended Eberle while he still had a year left on his ELC. They extended him based on two seasons (147 GP, 52G 67A 119P). The Flames got 3 full seasons to assess Monahan before they extended him (237 GP 80G 79A 159P). That's an important difference. Monahan is also worth more as a C than Eberle is as a W - or at least plays a more important role. Which is another important difference.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It is what the going rate for what GMs are handing out..so it is a no a bad contract in comparison ... They are all paying too much. More than what the lockout negotiated CBA tools give them. There will be some teams that will be out of the playoffs for a decade because they over estimated the development and are saddled with poor value contracts.


For every Toews and Kane that actually earns the crazy big money as 21 year olds there will be 3-4 Evander Kanes, Bogosians, Eberle, RNH, Hodgson, Skinner who does not play up to their 21 year old potential..... The odds are against these contracts working out.

There is some element of truth here. Flames are essentially betting on the fact that Monahan and Gaudreau are the right guys to build a team around. It's not without risk at this early point in their careers.

But there is no great alternative. You draft and develop your players and hope you get the right ones. You can't trade for a Stanley Cup caliber team and you can't keep starting over with draft picks.

If you're a fan, this is the core of the team you will be cheering for.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Same age, but the Oilers extended Eberle while he still had a year left on his ELC. They extended him based on two seasons (147 GP, 52G 67A 119P). The Flames got 3 full seasons to assess Monahan before they extended him (237 GP 80G 79A 159P). That's an important difference. Monahan is also worth more as a C than Eberle is as a W - or at least plays a more important role. Which is another important difference.

So Gaudreau with a more similar pattern to Eberle (Winger with 2 years a bit older) is not getting more than Monahan.... Gaudreau has 3 goals more and 24 more points. Hard to remember that at the time Eberle was the best 21 year old in the league #17 in the league in scoring.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

By that logic, wouldn't he sign a 6 year deal? Or 5? Why is 7 the magic number?

I agree that the negotiation gets harder every further year out. But I can't believe $10 million was the asking price for year 8. IDK - maybe you're right.

The flames wouldn't offer 5 or 6. They want short term bridge with 1-2 years left before UFA or as many years of free agency as they can buy.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Are you trying to highlight the risks?

When Eberle signed is 6x6 he was coming off his 21 year old season (same season Monahan just finished) and he had more 7 more goals 34 to Monahan's 27, 9 more pts 76 to 67 in 3 less games.... He was a +4 to Monahan's -6 (both on crappy +/- teams) . His best season, and very likely his career season happened when he was 21.

Eberle had a solid reputation as a clutch player scoring big goals.

His future at 21 was every bit as bright as Monahan's is today.

There would be no argument that the Oliers would have been far better off not extending him and then signing him to a 2x3 M show me deal the next summer. Eberle never earned close to his 6 M in the 3 out of the 4 RFA years he has burned so far and the Oilers have him for another RFA year plus 2 UFA years at 6M. They overpaid him for his 4 RFA years by 3M / season and will overpay him by 2M for his 2 UFA years.

He and RHN are the real life examples of not giving 21 year olds 6M deals for their RFA years.

What, what?

Eberle is a somewhat one-dimensional player who needs to be more sheltered than he is on the Oilers and quits on some backchecks where he shouldn't - but you are lying through your teeth if you wouldn't take for free what is left on that contract ($6,000,000 for the next 3 seasons) since it does not at all have negative value. Over the first three seasons of that contract this guy put up 77 goals and 98 assists across 230 games. That's an 82 game average of 27 goals and 35 assists a season. Six million for 62 point winger in his prime, who happens to be an elusive right-shot.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

So Gaudreau with a more similar pattern to Eberle (Winger with 2 years a bit older) is not getting more than Monahan.... Gaudreau has 3 goals more and 24 more points. Hard to remember that at the time Eberle was the best 21 year old in the league #17 in the league in scoring.

...while enjoying an on-ice shooting percentage that was 4.8% higher than his rookie season. Gaudreau, despite his top six finish in league scoring, actually saw his on-ice shooting percentage drop by 1.4% on the other hand. That's a much better sign his production this season was not a mirage.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

So Gaudreau with a more similar pattern to Eberle (Winger with 2 years a bit older) is not getting more than Monahan.... Gaudreau has 3 goals more and 24 more points. Hard to remember that at the time Eberle was the best 21 year old in the league #17 in the league in scoring.

Gaudreau may or may not get more than Monahan, I'm not privy to the negotiations and I have no pretensions about being a contract or cap expert. But if you're adamant that he'll get less than Monahan, that convinces me he will, in fact, get more than Monahan. And if Gaudreau does, that doesn't somehow make Monahan's contract worse than Eberle's. Nor Gaudreau's.

Now I go back to following the rules. Good day.

[Huntingwhale]