The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[Izzle]

Originally Posted by Thor

This is insane, everyone knows this week has been bad for Trump but to see this on Nate Silvers blog in graph form is stark!

Jesus Fish!

That is an insane swing. I suppose it will be just a tad tiny bit closer once the convention bounce is smoothed out? I still expect Hillary to annihilate Turnip.

[GGG]

There is only marginally more support now for Hillary then there was post Califormia primary. So part of this could just be a return of people post FBI email scandal, and post RNC convention so the 7-8 point lead might stick.

It's interesting though to see the bottom drop out on trumps numbers as he is back down to 35 in some of the 4 way races

[Senator Clay Davis]

Some of the breakdown from that Marist poll are pretty staggering. Trump winning the demos you'd expect, and is getting annihilated in the ones you'd expect

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think Georgia was always eventually going to become a purple state given the growing Latino demographic and a large African-American demo. Trump has just sped up that process by a lot.

Democrat Hillary Clinton has built a slim lead over Donald Trump in Georgia after one of the worst weeks of the Republican’s campaign, and the Libertarian presidential ticket cracked double-digits, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll.

The poll released Friday shows Clinton at 44 percent and Trump at 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup, within the poll’s margin of error. It is the latest showing a close race between the two candidates in Georgia, a state that has voted for the GOP nominee since 1996.

In a four-way race, Clinton led Trump 41-38, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson with 11 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 2 percent.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08...mp-in-georgia/

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

The two most surprising things there are that Trump is only getting 81% of Republican votes - that bodes very poorly for him but probably well for Johnson - but that he's winning independents by 4%, which bodes very well for him given the trends over the past week.

[Strange Brew]

If the numbers can change that much in a week, do these forecasts mean anything at all?

[troutman]

Clinton is leading with Independents in other polls I have seen.

[Senator Clay Davis]

^^Forecasts don't mean much right now, but the thing we're seeing in these recent polls is the number of undecideds is going down, which is not a good omen for Trump. His numbers are stagnant or falling as undecideds shrink, and Hillary and Gary Johnson appear to be the beneficiaries.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

If the numbers can change that much in a week, do these forecasts mean anything at all?

Trump is a momentum candidate though, an essential part of his campaign has been his looking like he's a winner.
He's also not likely to be able, temperamentally, to change up his game to become a careful measured statesman like candidate, his whole schtik is based on being outrageous, it worked as long as no one looked or cared to carefully about what he said within the party, outside the party though it's proving to be hugely damaging.

I still think the two biggest bombs haven't dropped, the tax return issue and whether his wife worked illegally in the U.S.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

New ABC/WaPo poll out this morning has Clinton up by 8 points, 50-42.

Lead is still 8 in a 4-way race.

[Street Pharmacist]

The latest Reuters/Ipsos had her lead down to 4, but it seems to be an outlier

[Street Pharmacist]

Iowa you wanted this:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ecast/updates/

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Thanks- have they always had that?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Thanks- have they always had that?

I've never seen it before

[Street Pharmacist]

And speaking of that, 44-42 for Trump in Missouri??? Holy crap. Imagine if Missouri is in play

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

There have been previous polls that have had Clinton up in Missouri, but her chances of winning on Fivethirtyeight have never gone above one in three.

[Senator Clay Davis]

538 currently has Hillary as a slight favorite in South Carolina. Another national poll with Trump down 10 in a straight up, and a Pennsylvania poll showing he's down 10 as well. It's pretty sad that "turning it around" for Trump now constitutes losing a close race and not being humiliated.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Not from what I'm seeing here... says she has a 43% chance to win SC.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...outh-carolina/

[GGG]

These polls are still peak Hillary and should come back towards the middle as outrage over Khan and max bounce are in the numbers coming out now. The polls released at the end of the week which cover Monday - Wednesday this week I think will be more informative but early on it looks like it's sticking.

The other factor is the media needs another 3 months of story so needs Trump to comeback or to get Gary Johnson to 15% to get him into the debate and become the alternative to trump. So expect an anti Hilary media naritive in the coming weeks

[Senator Clay Davis]

^^Timing difference I imagine from when I looked. That again it's even remotely in play is a catastrophe for the GOP. If this polling keeps up at some point they will abandon Trump nationally and just put everything they have into the House and Senate. Might as well try and avoid a total debacle.