How far off are the Calgary Flames from cup contending status?

[Coach]

I expect the Flames to be a perennial playoff team this year forward. Whether or not they end up as a "contender" in that mix is dependent on a lot of the things present in here. But they should have the talent necessary to get them to the dance. Winning in the playoffs is a different beast. A lot of things have to go right. And to be an ongoing contender? A lot of things have to go right for a long time. See: Chicago Blackhawks.

Funny how when it all settles out, we're now missing that top RW spot. JAROOOOOOOOOME.*


*this post is not indicative of MattyC's feelings of Jarome Iginla, nor does it reflect MattyC's opinion on whether or not Jarome Iginla would, could or should rejoin the Calgary Flames, member of the Calgary Sports and Entertainment Group. All rights reserved.

[SofaProfessor]

I hate the term "cup contender." We've seen it over many seasons where every team in the playoffs has a pretty legitimate chance of going all the way. I mean, if we were having this conversation generally about all teams back in November it would have been hard to call Pittsburgh a cup contender with the way they were playing and sitting in the standings.

As far as I see it, any team that makes the playoffs is a cup contender because anything can happen in a playoff series that completely changes your perspective of teams and their place in the picture. The Flames should be right on the edge of becoming a regular playoff team. The goalie situation has improved. Hopefully we see some improvement on special teams and a little more consistency on defence. If all of that happens I don't see how the Flames miss the playoffs and by my thinking, that makes you a cup contender. If you want to group them with teams like the Hawks then I think you need several seasons of sustained playoff appearances and success but that's a very narrow definition of cup contender that doesn't take into account the unpredictability we know and love in playoff series.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I expect the Flames to be a perennial playoff team this year forward. Whether or not they end up as a "contender" in that mix is dependent on a lot of the things present in here. But they should have the talent necessary to get them to the dance. Winning in the playoffs is a different beast. A lot of things have to go right. And to be an ongoing contender? A lot of things have to go right for a long time. See: Chicago Blackhawks.

Funny how when it all settles out, we're now missing that top RW spot. JAROOOOOOOOOME.*


*this post is not indicative of MattyC's feelings of Jarome Iginla, nor does it reflect MattyC's opinion on whether or not Jarome Iginla would, could or should rejoin the Calgary Flames, member of the Calgary Sports and Entertainment Group. All rights reserved.

It would be pretty magical to have Jarome sign a 1-year swan song deal with the Flames and they go all the way.

Like could there be anything more perfect?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by SofaProfessor

I hate the term "cup contender." We've seen it over many seasons where every team in the playoffs has a pretty legitimate chance of going all the way. I mean, if we were having this conversation generally about all teams back in November it would have been hard to call Pittsburgh a cup contender with the way they were playing and sitting in the standings.

As far as I see it, any team that makes the playoffs is a cup contender because anything can happen in a playoff series that completely changes your perspective of teams and their place in the picture. The Flames should be right on the edge of becoming a regular playoff team. The goalie situation has improved. Hopefully we see some improvement on special teams and a little more consistency on defence. If all of that happens I don't see how the Flames miss the playoffs and by my thinking, that makes you a cup contender. If you want to group them with teams like the Hawks then I think you need several seasons of sustained playoff appearances and success but that's a very narrow definition of cup contender that doesn't take into account the unpredictability we know and love in playoff series.

It's happened twice in the last 20 years where a seed lower than 4 went all the way. And it was the same team with the same core both times.

I wouldn't exactly consider this a great example of seeing it over many seasons.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by nik-

It's happened twice in the last 20 years where a seed lower than 4 went all the way. And it was the same team with the same core both times.

I wouldn't exactly consider this a great example of seeing it over many seasons.

We've also seen it twice in the last 5 years.

Parity is much higher since the last lockout, and much, much higher since the 2004/05 lockout. The years before that shouldn't be used for discussing the current NHL, because so much has changed. Of the 16 teams that make the playoffs now, probably 12 at least have a real legitimate shot at the cup. And even the other 4 could ride a hot goalie all the way.

[dino7c]

last season how close would we have said the Sharks were to being cup contenders? Honestly I can't imagine many picking the Pens either both teams were seemingly on the decline.

Who the fack knows

[Coach]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

It would be pretty magical to have Jarome sign a 1-year swan song deal with the Flames and they go all the way.

Like could there be anything more perfect?

Yeah, it would be pretty amazing. I certainly wouldn't be against Jarome coming back as a Selanne-type.

But these are dreams.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

We've also seen it twice in the last 5 years.

Parity is much higher since the last lockout, and much, much higher since the 2004/05 lockout. The years before that shouldn't be used for discussing the current NHL, because so much has changed. Of the 16 teams that make the playoffs now, probably 12 at least have a real legitimate shot at the cup. And even the other 4 could ride a hot goalie all the way.

By the same team, with the same core.

One team doing it isn't a pattern or changing of legit chances.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by SofaProfessor

I hate the term "cup contender." We've seen it over many seasons where every team in the playoffs has a pretty legitimate chance of going all the way. I mean, if we were having this conversation generally about all teams back in November it would have been hard to call Pittsburgh a cup contender with the way they were playing and sitting in the standings.

As far as I see it, any team that makes the playoffs is a cup contender because anything can happen in a playoff series that completely changes your perspective of teams and their place in the picture. The Flames should be right on the edge of becoming a regular playoff team. The goalie situation has improved. Hopefully we see some improvement on special teams and a little more consistency on defence. If all of that happens I don't see how the Flames miss the playoffs and by my thinking, that makes you a cup contender. If you want to group them with teams like the Hawks then I think you need several seasons of sustained playoff appearances and success but that's a very narrow definition of cup contender that doesn't take into account the unpredictability we know and love in playoff series.

It's just not true. There are many more examples of teams, good teams, not quite able to get over the hump, than there are of teams making a run from the bottom 8.

Blues, Predators, Rangers, Sharks, Washington... etc. Have all had trouble with getting over this hump from perennial regular season powerhouse and playoff participant to winning a Stanley Cup. Are there chances of a cinderella run? Sure. But you're better off building your organization around feeding your top team as much talent as possible for as long as possible than just trying to get in. That mentality is what breeds short-term moves IMO.

I think what the parity has done (and I'm not discounting that all the teams are closer) is give us better playoffs in the vein of more OTs, more long series, less dominant top teams, etc. But also really brought the best out of a very few and those teams just seem to have that something extra, because over those longer games, and longer series, the better team usually finds a way. Sometimes a flash in the pan team catches it. Sometimes a great team under-performs during the season and explodes during the playoffs (LA). There are a lot of variables, like you say, but in the end, the teams that are fighting for the trophy are the best teams.

[442scotty]

Anything can happen.... If the goaltending is there then we can go a long ways.. Can we win this year? Why not .

[SofaProfessor]

Originally Posted by nik-

It's happened twice in the last 20 years where a seed lower than 4 went all the way. And it was the same team with the same core both times.

I wouldn't exactly consider this a great example of seeing it over many seasons.

I said a legitimate chance of going all the way. We've seen teams make good runs but fall just a bit short whether that be finals or conference finals. And parity is getting better and better every season. I guess my argument comes down to semantics. How do you want to define a cup contender? I'm making the argument that getting into the playoffs and starting a series from game 1 means anything can happen and, therefore, makes you a cup contender.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by nik-

By the same team, with the same core.

One team doing it isn't a pattern or changing of legit chances.

Sure, but in the same five years the Devils were 6th in the conference, the Rangers were 5th and the Sharks were 6th. So 3 of the 5 runners up came from the bottom half of their conference. And the Bruins were also the runners up at 4th, and the Blackhawks won a cup from 4th as well.

So 7 of the 10 teams to make the finals in the last 5 years were 4th seeds or worse. That looks like a lot of parity to me.

[Macho0978]

Since the most recent lockout the league has more parity than ever. I expect this to continue now that rich teams can't front load deals and circumvent the cap. I'm also not one that think that every team that makes the playoffs is a cup contender. But I expect 8-10 teams can fall into the category as true cup contenders. I also think there will be more rotation of teams in and out of this category. Example Sharks, Pens and Lightning all could be in serious hurt cap wise after this season. The pens already are. hawks are right now and Panarin contract coming up next summer it isn't getting better. Kings losing Lucic and guys like Pearson and Toffoli up soon I see their days are numbered. Ducks look good still but losing Andersen could hurt. Caps are coming into cap issues soon as well.

So after saying that why can't the Flames be a cup contender after this year? Lots has to go right but why can't it? Why can't Bennett do what Monahan did and score over 30 this year? If he does we could have 3 good lines. Why can't Hamilton improve? Why can't our defense be considered elite this year? Why can't Elliott be a top 10 goalie? If not why can't we get Bishop or someone else next summer and fill that void? But non of this could happen and we may be saying we are 3 years away mid season. Tough to predict teams as young as the Flames but my guess is next summer will be the year we will be looking at the cup not just playoffs

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by SofaProfessor

I hate the term "cup contender." We've seen it over many seasons where every team in the playoffs has a pretty legitimate chance of going all the way. I mean, if we were having this conversation generally about all teams back in November it would have been hard to call Pittsburgh a cup contender with the way they were playing and sitting in the standings.

As far as I see it, any team that makes the playoffs is a cup contender because anything can happen in a playoff series that completely changes your perspective of teams and their place in the picture. The Flames should be right on the edge of becoming a regular playoff team. The goalie situation has improved. Hopefully we see some improvement on special teams and a little more consistency on defence. If all of that happens I don't see how the Flames miss the playoffs and by my thinking, that makes you a cup contender. If you want to group them with teams like the Hawks then I think you need several seasons of sustained playoff appearances and success but that's a very narrow definition of cup contender that doesn't take into account the unpredictability we know and love in playoff series.

I hate the attitude that you should just make the playoffs and anything can happen. That's the sort of attitude that only allows you to win three playoff series series in ten years with the best forward and best goalie the franchise has ever seen.

[TheScorpion]

A team with Iginla coming back would be... insane and awesome. I don't know how else to describe it.

[Bourque's Twin]

Another thing to consider is the downward trajectory of other teams in the division. LA, SJ, ANA, and VAN aren't getting better any time soon. LA is getting older, slower, and more crippled by salary cap. SJ loses Thornton and Marleau to UFA or retirement soon. Perry and Getzlaf don't dominate like they used to but it's still too early to count them out. Keep in mind that they will be 34 when Monahan is 25, Gaudreau is 26, Bennett is 24, and Tkachuk is 22. EDM will find a way to mess things up. Phoenix has much further to go than Calgary. I think Calgary, starting next season, will have a good chance of making the playoffs for several years due to a lack of competition in the division. Once you get to the dance, anything can happen.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

A team with Iginla coming back would be... insane and awesome. I don't know how else to describe it.

I love Iginla, but he would quickly turn into a whipping boy on this team. He can't keep up like he used to. He doesn't play physical like he used to. He just has taken a number of steps down.

I think he would simply become a whipping boy on these forums in short order:

1) Doesn't keep up, backcheck or score at least 20+ goals - "He is a bum!"
2) More importantly, imagine this: Team is not playing well, as many teams (even championship years) go through: "Must be Iginla. He is wrecking the chemistry. Country club is back. Must have fought Gio in the dressing room."

I love Iginla, and I also for a time wished for him to return for that storybook ending, but now I just think it should just be that one day retirement jersey thing, and every fan in the dome will be cheering loudly for it. Fans started openly hoping the Flames would trade him away. I don't want to see the Fans openly hoping he retires because he is so washed up. I would hate to see him end up with that kind of a memory.

[Vinny01]

I do t see Iggy as a whipping boy considering I only see him coming back in a bottom 6 role for cheap $

[Oling_Roachinen]

I think for a team like this 2-3 years will be the best opportunity. The core of Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Brodie, Bennett and Giordano will be in their prime years, except maybe Giordano.

All of the bad contracts will be off the books, Tkachuk, Jankowski, Poirier, Klimchuk, Anderson, Kylington, and Mangiapane will be on ELC or likely bare minimum contracts. Depending on how Bennett's season goes, he'll probably be on a bridge-contract. If you can get a top 6 winger like Tkachuk making under a million, a top 6 center like Bennett on a bride-contract, and a couple of depth players on ELC's, that's going to be huge for the salary cap structure.

Combined with Brodie's amazing contract, that's a lot of cap space to fill out the remainder positions with quality depth players, if not a couple bonafide top 6/top 4 UFA's.

[Vinny01]

This is a very hard thing to determine. I do think the Flames will be a perrienial top 10 team in the league in the next 1-3 years and maintain that run for 5+ years.

When Iggy got traded this was a team that many thought were 5 years away at least from putting a respectable team on the ice. The Flames I feel have had a relatively smooth rebuild that has gone much quicker than anticipated. Things appeared better off starting the first full season of the rebuild. Gio who had been a solid, dependable top 4 D since signing his 5 year extension 2 years earlier was quickly turning into an elite 2 way Dman. Also TJ Brodie went from healthy scratch in game 1 of the shortened 2013 season and looked like a reliable top 4 D. In the 3 years since the rebuild started he has taken massive steps and is now arguably a number 1 Dman on most teams. Johnny Gaudreau was considered boom-bust when the rebuild began. Well as we all know he boomed and is an elite NHL player before he turned 23. The Flames had 3 really challenging seasons since Iggy moved on and received the 6th, 4th, and 6th pick in those years. So far those picks look like home runs. Monahan has 2 seasons where he scored 62 and 63pts before he turns 22. Sam Bennett has shown flashes of being a dominant offensive force. Matt Tkachuk had a monster year and huge playoffs. All 3 players seem to have high character and are mature for their ages. Fleecing the Bruins for Dpugie Hamilton saved the flames drafting and developing a high end D prospect when that appeared to be the missing piece.

The pieces are there for the Flames. Hopefully they come together and succeed. Gulutzan has a big job ahead of him but has a pretty enviable position to be in