Pick your Booms and Busts for 2016/2017 Season

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

The Flames could have got the same thing from Colborne for a quarter of the financial commitment, or from Pirri or from Hudler or from several other players.

Sigh.

Not even close.

If he steps in and plays a big heavy game putting up 20/20 in a top six role he is most definitely not a disappointment. That would be exactly what we're expecting from him and would fill a big hole.

[ricardodw]

Brouwer has to be significantly better than Colborne and David Jones.

It would be a clear bust for Brouwer if he comes in and puts up 40 pts playing on the line with Monahan and Gaudreau and they stay at the same points totals they put up in 2015-16..... That would mean that he didn't make them better. (unless monahan /Gaudreau and Brouwer are all > +10)

I think he was brought in specifically to make Johnny Gaudreau more successful on the road. Gaudreau plays as well on the road as at home and he should be around 45 goals and 110 pts.


Similarly a Bust if he slots in with a line with Frolik and Backlund and they don't increase their point totals.


If he plays with Bennett and Bennett hits 20 goals 40 pts and Brouwer does likewise then he will meet expectations.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Brouwer has to be significantly better than Colborne and David Jones.

It would be a clear bust for Brouwer if he comes in and puts up 40 pts playing on the line with Monahan and Gaudreau and they stay at the same points totals they put up in 2015-16..... That would mean that he didn't make them better. (unless monahan /Gaudreau and Brouwer are all > +10)

I think he was brought in specifically to make Johnny Gaudreau more successful on the road. Gaudreau plays as well on the road as at home and he should be around 45 goals and 110 pts.


Similarly a Bust if he slots in with a line with Frolik and Backlund and they don't increase their point totals.


If he plays with Bennett and Bennett hits 20 goals 40 pts and Brouwer does likewise then he will meet expectations.

As usual, one dimensional thinking.

In this case, looking at point totals with blinders on.

Brower was also brought in to add size, grit and leadership. If he comes in and puts up 40 points (regardless of the line he's on) and makes the Flames' top six bigger and harder to play against (creating more room for skilled players), he's served his purpose.

The very word "bust" is being used horribly in this context. 20/20 in a top six role with other intangibles would be miles away from "busting".

[monkeyman]

Regardless of how many points, id be happy if Brouwer comes in and plays a strong, physical game, providing a little push back on guys hacking and slashing our smaller skilled guys. The mistake guys like jones and Colborne made was thinking they were put on that top line to produce points and play a finesse game.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

If Brouwer puts up exactly what he has for the last few years (20g, 40p, negative Rel Corsi%), he will be a disappointment.

The Flames could have got the same thing from Colborne for a quarter of the financial commitment, or from Pirri or from Hudler or from several other players. He was definitely the best heavy top 6 guy available in FA though, with Perron a close second.

But even if you just want a banger that can play top 6, I'm sure Chris Kunitz or Scott Hartnell (who are both better players in almost every aspect of the game, who both have better contracts than Brouwer does now) could have been acquired for cheap or free. His signing was a terrible use of cap space.

God, no. Brouwer's value is not just about his own point totals, it is about how much he augments the Flames top six. If he is a fixture on Bennet's line, how much does that increase Bennett's production, and how much does this force opposing team's defenses to adjust to that line? How much does this benefit Monahan's line, and affect the overall line matching?

No. Brouwer's addition is almost certain to provide positive value.

[jlh2640]

Boom- Matty T
Bust - Chad Johnson

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GoJetsGo

As usual, one dimensional thinking.

In this case, looking at point totals with blinders on.

Brower was also brought in to add size, grit and leadership. If he comes in and puts up 40 points (regardless of the line he's on) and makes the Flames' top six bigger and harder to play against (creating more room for skilled players), he's served his purpose.

The very word "bust" is being used horribly in this context. 20/20 in a top six role with other intangibles would be miles away from "busting".

Read Ricardo's post again. In general I agree with him, improving his teammates point totals and/or plus minus is at least a reasonable measurement of Brouwers success.

There's no question Brouwer will add value. Like every player , he has to come close to earning his contract to not be a bust.

[Bear]

Booms:

Bennett - will be the flames best player on the road this season.
Jankowski - breaks camp and puts up massive PP points as a winger on the top line.
Chad Johnson - wins the starters job and is rewarded with a 5 year extension.
Shinkaruk - Puts up 50 points as 2nd line LW playing with Bennett and Brouwer.
Ferland - Has a 20/20 season playing with Backlund and Frolik.

Busts:

Monahan - Hits a plateau. Useful player and bust is too strong but CP begins to moan a bit.
Tkachuk - Looks way out of place in his 4 games in the show. Back to Juniors and puts up ~ 1.00 ppg.
Elliott - Beaten out by Johnson and traded for a 3rd at the TDL.
Gio - shows his age.

[jg13]

Originally Posted by Bear

Booms:

Bennett - will be the flames best player on the road this season.
Jankowski - breaks camp and puts up massive PP points as a winger on the top line.
Chad Johnson - wins the starters job and is rewarded with a 5 year extension.
Shinkaruk - Puts up 50 points as 2nd line LW playing with Bennett and Brouwer.
Ferland - Has a 20/20 season playing with Backlund and Frolik.

Busts:

Monahan - Hits a plateau. Useful player and bust is too strong but CP begins to moan a bit.
Tkachuk - Looks way out of place in his 4 games in the show. Back to Juniors and puts up ~ 1.00 ppg.
Elliott - Beaten out by Johnson and traded for a 3rd at the TDL.
Gio - shows his age.

I will eat pubes if this happens.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by jg13

I will eat pubes if this happens.

Saving this post

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Read Ricardo's post again. In general I agree with him, improving his teammates point totals and/or plus minus is at least a reasonable measurement of Brouwers success.

There's no question Brouwer will add value. Like every player , he has to come close to earning his contract to not be a bust.

Earn his contract relative to other UFA deals or all contracts?
I think Ricardo brings up some good ways to measure Brouwers performance though I would strongly suggest plus minus is just a terrible stat in any context

[Strange Brew]

Earn his contract period. There is only a single salary cap so IMO the circumstances of how he got here are irrelevant now. No one made the Flames use that money on him.

Lots of ways to interpret boom or bust for sure. But I wouldn't use a different rating scale for Brouwer because he signed as a UFA vs. say Giordano.

Yeah I agree that plus/minus is a bad stat. But not useless. Point is, Brouwer needs to make his line better. Guess we can look at shots for/against (advanced stat) vs. goals for/against (useless stat).

[JiriHrdina]

No one made them use that money, but how else do you think they should have filled a glaring hole on the RW?
Clearly UFA status influences contract amounts. Comparing value and contracts of UFAs v. RFAs simply isn't apples to apples.

[Strange Brew]

In considering potential boom or busts on the team, I didn't really think about other options for RW other than signing Brouwer. It's hard to know what the trade options were. But I'm not sure that's relevant.

Is the suggestion that expectations for Brouwer need to be kept so low such that there is no way to be considered a bust?

My point is that the Flames are a cap team. They have decided to spend x amount of their cap going forward on Brouwer. It is a healthy amount. He needs to deliver commensurate value for that, or else he is a bust.

If he plays with Monahan and Gaudreau all season, he should have more than 35 points. If Flames make the playoffs, he should have more than 3 assists in 14 games, like he did year before last although I will take 14 playoff games even if the guy is horrible). Beyond points, I hope he is generating puck possession and creating space for his linemates.

As stated I don't think he will be a bust next year at all. But I suspect he will be before his contract is up.

I don't know why you can be surprised so many posters suggest he could be a bust? Expectations are high that he will contribute to more wins. Where as I don't see how guys like Chiasson or Ferland can be huge busts. Right now they are marginal NHLers. Even if they don't make the team, they haven't fallen that far.

[St. Pats]

Sounds like a lot of the bust choices are newly added players that Treliving has recently acquired so accordingly he would then be the bust?

[Timbo]

Boom: TJ Brodie, he makes the all star team and gets league wide recognition for his play. In the Norris conversation.

Bust: Vey...another reclaimation project that fails.Picking him up is the definitive boom or bust move.

[JiriHrdina]

The expectations for Brouwer should largely be based on his historic performance

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

The expectations for Brouwer should largely be based on his historic performance

Which, quite frankly, has not been fantastic.

He's been consistent, yes, but he's been consistently decent, not consistently great. He's never once surpassed 45 points in a season, and we're expecting him to play on the first line, where he has yet to really be slotted in on a team's depth chart in his career. In Chicago, he was on the Bickell line. In Washington, he was on the 2nd line. Last year, he slotted in on the Lehtera line. Now we're expecting him to play with Gaudreau?

If you ask me, he'll be a more expensive, slightly-better-offensively David Jones. I liked David Jones, but he was wildly overpaid and by the end of his contract he was all but useless. Brouwer's the same age right now as Jones was at the end of his deal.

I don't care if you have to pay a premium to build through free agency. I know you think Hudler is small and slow, but he's still better offensively than Brouwer is and in my opinion he'd be a better fit on line one.

In my opinion, Brouwer will be a buyout candidate by year three of this deal.

[JiriHrdina]

That's all fine - but there are a lot of assumptions there - including that he plays on the first line.
He is a far more complete player than Hudler. And he's just simply a better player than David Jones
The facts Jones and Hudler are still looking for jobs and may have played their last NHL games.
That says it all

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

No one made them use that money, but how else do you think they should have filled a glaring hole on the RW?.

Has it been "filled" though? We still have arguably the worst top two line RW in the NHL and we actually downgraded in point production from Hudler. I mean I can barely think of a team off top of head (maybe NYI/COL/BOS?) that's much worse off at RW and even those teams have right-shot centremen (MacKinnon/Bergeron/Krejci) or high-end RW kids (Rantanen/Strome).

We still have a RW hole.