The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I kind of wanted to avoid the Sanchez debate, but here I am. There is no way Sanchez stays a starter much longer (his start tomorrow is up for debate right now). It's hard to have a scientific study on something like this due to the lack of a "control" group, but recent history shows that big jumps in innings increase risk of injury.

Check out this article (http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/09/yea...-luis-severino). Each year it predicts pitchers that will get injured due to a large spike in innings pitched compared to their career high. His predictions (and results) from last year. The percentages was the increase in innings pitched compared to their previous career high:



Now for his predictions for this year (with my results beside them):

Lance McCullers (56.7%) - Just placed on the 15 day DL with elbow discomfort. Came out of the game suddenly with no apparent trauma to the elbow

Noah Syndergaard (49.4%) - Issues with "deadarm" in July but appears to be doing okay now

Luis Severino (43.1%) - Stint on the DL earlier in the year and sent down to AAA after an 0-6 start

Carlos Martinez (41.5%) - Seems to be okay at this point

Tyler Duffey (31.3%) - Been terrible with a 7.15 ERA in his last 8 starts. Briefly removed from the rotation as he was that bad

I know none this is scientific, and is dealt with on a case by case basis, but there is sufficient evidence there to show a correlation between a spike in innings pitched, and resulting issues (injury or decreased effectiveness). This is why Sanchez will be on an innings limit, and why it is a good idea. The fact that he's been Cy Young like was just a bonus, but everyone knew this is coming, and realistically this is the right decision.

I think he has about two starts left in him. I think everyone recognizes this by this point. The debate at this point is whether he should be in the pen or shutdown completely (add a couple more starts and shut him down).

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I don't think leverage directly affects it much (if at all) although I do wonder how much (if any) of a difference it (sending him to the bullpen) makes...

Two starts (10 Games) = say 13.333 innings & 200 pitches. Roughly 15 pitches per inning plus two sets of warm-up pitches. Assuming he doesn't pitch on consecutive games in the bullpen you get 75 pitches plus 5 sets of warm-up pitches over the same period. Also Relievers typically go for max effort (hence greater velo comming out of the pen). After factoring in the additional 3 sets of warm-up pitches and greater effort per pitch I'm not sure how much (if any) difference there is in terms of arm stress.

Seriously... go with a 6 man rotation and give him a 75 pitch count until the playoffs and you'll probably save the same (or more) amount of arm stress and have him available to start in the playoffs. Absent any compelling data I think shuttling him off to the bullpen is idiotic.

Although I doubt there is any science behind, many players and former players have said on multiple occasions that throwing out of the bullpen is much harder on your body than pitching as a starter. Your pitches are violent (go out there and throw nothing but heaters and sliders) and generally in high stress situation.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I know none this is scientific

Exactly... not scientific. The science is what should be the driving force behind decisions like this.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

but there is sufficient evidence there to show a correlation between a spike in innings pitched, and resulting issues (injury or decreased effectiveness). This is why Sanchez will be on an innings limit, and why it is a good idea.

Sigh... please show me this correlation (with accompanying data for the league average occurrences and occurrences amoung those with only minor variation in "innings pitched". That is such a bad argument... even the language is bad. An "innings" limit? Innings are a measure of outs. Outs don't cause injuries, stress causes injuries and stress is accumulated by the act of throwing not making outs.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Although I doubt there is any science behind, many players and former players have said on multiple occasions that throwing out of the bullpen is much harder on your body than pitching as a starter. Your pitches are violent (go out there and throw nothing but heaters and sliders) and generally in high stress situation.

I think part of the challenge is the issue is so much more complex than really what is being discussed. The debate, for the most part, is centered on innings pitch, but I think there is a lot more two it, including
- the pitcher's overall history and workload
- the difficulty of innings
- the mechanics of the pitch (who smooth/violent is there delivery)

And probably a bevy of other stuff.
My hope/belief is that the Jays are taking a much more complete view of this than we know, or is being talked about, and are making the decision on the basis of that - and there best attempt at what is best.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Exactly... not scientific. The science is what should be the driving force behind decisions like this.

Sigh... please show me this correlation (with accompanying data for the league average occurrences and occurrences amoung those with only minor variation in "innings pitched". That is such a bad argument... even the language is bad. An "innings" limit? Innings are a measure of outs. Outs don't cause injuries, stress causes injuries and stress is accumulated by the act of throwing not making outs.

I don't think it can ever be scientific though. How could you possibly set up a study that had an appropriate control group? That's the main issue with this whole argument, you cannot prove it, nor disprove it.

So with that in mind, you look at your best alternative. In my opinion, looking at other pitchers with a jump in innings pitched and seeing what is going on with them next year is the best option. In my prior post it shows most of those guys either getting hurt or being extremely less effective than before. That's the correlation (notice I'm avoiding causation here).

[Otto-matic]

Tim and SidVerified account
‏@timandsid
GM Ross Atkins just said that Sanchez will stay in the rotation for the time being.

[TheAlpineOracle]

That's a pretty serious 180 by the Jays. I think the clubhouse may have gotten involved. Makes me happy though because I don't believe in innings limits and I think putting him in the pen was a terrible move from both a career development perspective and because of optics.

[JiriHrdina]

I'm good with this as long as it means Josh Thole now only appears once every six starts instead of one in five.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I don't think it can ever be scientific though. How could you possibly set up a study that had an appropriate control group? That's the main issue with this whole argument, you cannot prove it, nor disprove it.

Meh, U of Waterloo did it...

https://uwaterloo.ca/news/news/innin...ching-injuries

... annoyingly the full study costs $ that I don't want to spend but someone did it.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I'm good with this as long as it means Josh Thole now only appears once every six starts instead of one in five.

Hopefully Kratz means no Thole. I don't think they would have coaxed him out of retirement if they didn't plan to use him once the roster expands.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

The jays are feast or famine, and have been for about the past decade, it's just more people care now so it gets talked about more. The team is built for Rogers Center. Built to hit homeruns, not for average.


Someone was saying earlier that the Jays have no glaring weaknesses in their lineup. I disagree. I would argue that as much as we've argued about pitching/bullpen, the Jays biggest weakness is an inability to drive in runs without the homerun and the fact that often time their homers are of the solo variety.

Good pitching generally beats good hitting. In the playoffs your are going to be getting a steady diet of good pitching. If the Jays can't knock a guy in from first or second with no outs without hitting a home run, they are going to have some serious trouble in the playoffs. When the ball is kept in play, it's hard for them to win.

Look at Kansas last year. If they got on base, the guy was going to score. They didn't need to drive it into the upper deck to score. A walk and a couple singles was going to get them a run.

The Jays certainly don't have a great team average, but their OBP is top 10 in the league (.328). It was number one, by quite a large margin, last season (.340). KC's OBP was middle of the pack last year (.322).

KC run has always mystified statisticians who have essentially argued they have been lucky with their timely hitting.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Cappy

The Jays certainly don't have a great team average, but their OBP is top 10 in the league (.328). It was number one, by quite a large margin, last season (.340). KC's OBP was middle of the pack last year (.322).

KC run has always mystified statisticians who have essentially argued they have been lucky with their timely hitting.

Don't the Jays have a high OBP because they draw a lot of walks? OBP doesn't translate into runs on the board. Half the time one of the Jays will walk and the next guy grounds into a double play.

[868904]

It's good that the other starters support the 6 man rotation for now.

It makes a lot of sense really for this group.

Sanchez - to minimize the innings;
Stroman - still a young arm and could also benefit from reduced innings;
Estrada - more time to heal his back, less strain on him;
Dickey - is old and seems to pitch better with more rest;
Happ - is rolling along but how long will that last?
Liriano - probably needs some time to work out the problems in his game anyways. Less games, more practice and video time?

Should keep them all fresh too.

[calculoso]

I am of the opinion that this will hurt Dickey

To me, he seems to need to get into a roll to pitch well. At the start of the year, it always takes a while to get the feel back for the pitch (in addition to the weather). He seems to get better as the year goes on. Just before the All-star break, he was doing very well, and then the All-star break seemed to reset his performance. He's now getting back to getting the feel for the pitch and had a great last start.

Probably wrong.. My perception only...

[GirlySports]

less games for Thole!

[The Big Chill]

A manufactured run!

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Don't the Jays have a high OBP because they draw a lot of walks? OBP doesn't translate into runs on the board. Half the time one of the Jays will walk and the next guy grounds into a double play.

If only they could steal a freaking base. They just dont run. Lots more DPs because of that too.

[Karl]

What I've learned from the game so far: This Todd Tichenor ump calls alot of strikes at and even below the bottom of the zone.

[chockfullofgoodness]

Upton Jr absolutely STINKS at the plate since coming over.

[puffnstuff]

Jays going to set a MLB record for most SOs in a four game series. 2 more ties it, 3 to set a new record. Record is currently 58.
Have already set a new team record.