The New American Politics thread

[Buster]

Originally Posted by Izzle

Hillary probably will focus on policies more rather than attack Turnip.

This will be the most interesting aspect of the two conventions, IMO.

As far as I can tell, Hillary only started to gain ground in the polls when she stopped talking policy, and began to fight fire with fire. People say they are interested in policy, but it does not appear to be what works in terms of gaining share.

My guess is that she will make some surface platitudes about policy being her focus, but in the end veer off to other more populist persuasion techniques.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I really don't think that "my opponent" thing works. Everyone knows the names "Trump" and "Clinton".

[Drak]

I can't wait for the debates.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I really don't think that "my opponent" thing works. Everyone knows the names "Trump" and "Clinton".

It would infuriate attention whore Don to no end. A solid strategy in the election will be to kill him with kindness and polite disrespect. He'll lose his mind and continue to do garbage like suggest foreign governments intervene in the US election process.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Drak

I can't wait for the debates.

Especially if there are three people up on the stage instead of two.

[Buster]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Especially if there are three people up on the stage instead of two.

That would be great. But I do not think it is in the best interest of anyone in the media or the established parties to let this happen. So it won't. I hope I'm wrong.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Buster

That would be great. But I do not think it is in the best interest of anyone in the media or the established parties to let this happen. So it won't. I hope I'm wrong.

You never know. Johnson could win Utah. That would send the election to the House, wouldn't it?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Buster

That would be great. But I do not think it is in the best interest of anyone in the media or the established parties to let this happen. So it won't. I hope I'm wrong.

I believe they don't have a choice if a candidate is polling at 15%. That's possible but it's highly unlikely. Johnson's barely flirting with double digits nationally (although just that is pretty impressive for a third party candidate). Mitt Romney said he'd consider voting for him - an endorsement couldn't hurt.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

You never know. Johnson could win Utah. That would send the election to the House, wouldn't it?

Uhhh no? Not even close.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I mean, it would if they were otherwise tied 266-266. Which seems super unlikely.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

You never know. Johnson could win Utah. That would send the election to the House, wouldn't it?

How would Utah's five electoral votes have an impact on the overall landscape that doesn't hurt Trump's path to the Oval Office? Please expand?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Buster

That would be great. But I do not think it is in the best interest of anyone in the media or the established parties to let this happen. So it won't. I hope I'm wrong.

I don't think Johnson or Stein will meet the CPD requirements to get on the stage. They're currently polling at about 5% & 3% respectively... that's a long way from 15%.

[Buster]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I believe they don't have a choice if a candidate is polling at 15%. That's possible but it's highly unlikely. Johnson's barely flirting with double digits nationally (although just that is pretty impressive for a third party candidate). Mitt Romney said he'd consider voting for him - an endorsement couldn't hurt.

Yes, I meant more that a combination of the media, and the two parties will basically ensure that Johnson will not get enough attention to see that poll result.

[Buster]

Originally Posted by New Era

How would Utah's five electoral votes have an impact on the overall landscape that doesn't hurt Trump's path to the Oval Office? Please expand?

I think this is the first 3rd party situation where it is somewhat unclear which party will be hurt more by the 3rd party.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by New Era

How would Utah's five electoral votes have an impact on the overall landscape that doesn't hurt Trump's path to the Oval Office? Please expand?

I think the assumption here is if a third party wins even 1 state, that breaks the electoral college. Anyway to clarify for the Scorpion, the only way the House decides is if no one gets to 270. So Johnson could win Utah, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia and Hillary's the President because she's still past 270.

[TheScorpion]

That's what I thought, SCD. I remember reading somewhere that Johnson winning Utah could prevent either Hillary or Trump from getting 270.

I also read somewhere that Johnson was currently polling at 13% nationally. Maybe that was wrong.

[Senator Clay Davis]

That could only happen in a very, very unusual situation. Odds are one of them will be past 270 without Utah. It's also worth remembering everyone can say they'll vote third party now, but by the end of October as it appears clearer who will win, people will likely switch their vote to one of the two big parties. I think Johnson was polling around 5% in 2012, and ended up with 1% on election day.

[Drak]

Yah this is still WAY early in the process.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

If Utah were able to decide anything in this country alcohol would be illegal again, we'd all be prescribed magic underwear, and being black would be illegal.

Thank god they have no power.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Buster

I think this is the first 3rd party situation where it is somewhat unclear which party will be hurt more by the 3rd party.

Where the votes comes from is irrelevant. We're talking about the counting of electoral college votes and paths to the presidency. Knowing what the path to the presidency for each candidate is what matters most, and losing a state hurts which candidate the most.

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think the assumption here is if a third party wins even 1 state, that breaks the electoral college. Anyway to clarify for the Scorpion, the only way the House decides is if no one gets to 270. So Johnson could win Utah, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia and Hillary's the President because she's still past 270.

The most important thing to consider about electoral college votes is which states are absolutes for each candidate and which states are in play. Utah is, and has always been solid Republican territory. A loss to a third party candidate hurts the Republicans as this was six electoral votes they were solidly counting on. To the Dems, a loss of Utah to a third party is irrelevant as it wasn't in their expected path to 270. The Republicans need Utah, and a loss there severely hurts their campaign. They lose Utah and they have to win an extra swing state.