[Signing] Flyers sign Brayden Schenn to 4 year deal ($5.125 mil AAV)

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

How many of Monahan's 60 pts came from playing with Gaudreau? Before Gaudreau he was a 34 pt guy.

Before Gaudreau he was a rookie just drafted...Come on that's being unfair and you know it.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

In Monahan's best year he was 3rd in scoring behind Hudler and Gaudreau.

His best year was this previous season. 63 points. Behind only Gaudreau.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Totally agree that if Schenn falls back to 40-45 pts like he was for 2 seasons where he was playing on the Briere and then Lecavalier lines where they were well past their primes and he outscored them then he will be over paid.

2015-2016 he played with Giroux and Simmonds, put up 59 points.
2014-2015 he played with Giroux and Voracek, put up 47 points
2013-2014 he played with Lecavalier and Simmonds, put up 41 points.

He played more with Giroux and Voracek than Monahan played with Gaudreau in 2014-2015, still only put up 47 points. It's not just while playing with out of their prime players when he was putting up sub 50 points.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If he stays at 60pt he will be fairly paid.

Sure. But your first post said this was a "GREAT" contract.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If he moves up to 70-80 pts he will be a bargain, value contract.

Sure...but you've been arguing that it's not unusual for players to peak offensively at 21...Schenn is 24. Possible he improves, but less chance than say Monahan.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

At 40-45 pts he would be overpaid by the 600k he is getting more than Brouwer, who has been signed as a 40-45 pts 200 hit player.

Sure, but like you argued in your first post in this thread, you have to account for RFA/UFA years. You broke it down as this:

4, 4, 6 , 6.15

So, according to your own post, as a "UFA" he would be paid 1.5M more than Brouwer.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by timbit

Maybe I am missing your point.

What was the Flames acquisition cost in acquiring Brouwer?

There is a huge difference between UFAs and RFAs. Acquisition cost!

Would you be content if the Flames traded Monahan ( at , let's say, 6.0 - 6.3 AAV) for Schenn ( 5.125 AAV) and had not signed Brouwer?

Interesting, if you are.

I certainly wouldn't be happy.

The reason being that the Flames are far worse on the ice.

Absolutely not.... I think that Monahan is great player that has a more than 50% chance of becoming a ppg player and has exceeded expectations to date.

Never wanted to trade him for Schenn. Was just saying that Schenn possibly having an upside somewhat close to Monahan made his contract a very good deal.

But right now ... today.... Brouwer is a 30 year old who had his career season as a 28 year old 3 seasons ago 25 goals 43 pts.

Being optimistic Brouwer will be able to stay as a 40-45 pt 200 hit player for at least 2 years. The chances of him exceeding his career best scoring at this point in his career are very small.

The Flames are paying him 4.5M with these expectations.

Schenn had signed for 4 years and the low end of his expectations is to be a 40-45 pt player at 5.125M x4 for the next 4 years.

Now that they are signed and both will be UFA's in 4 years I would be pretty confident that most teams would trade Brouwer for Schenn in a heartbeat.

Schenn's downside is protected by him being a physical player, Monahan's is not.

Keep Monahan and Brouwer and trade Frolik for Schenn ... absolutely!!

Schenn's career path is what I see as similar to Bennett's....

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Sure...but you've been arguing that it's not unusual for players to peak offensively at 21...Schenn is 24. Possible he improves, but less chance than say Monahan.

Just the players who get 30M contracts at age 21... The rest usually peak a lot later age wise 25-30

Far more enjoyable having a discussion where you make some valid points, poke holes in what I said and we don't call each other stupid.

[doctajones428]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

It's Ben Stiller from Heavyweights.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Dodgeball.

Do'h. The yellow shirt threw me off

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Absolutely not.... I think that Monahan is great player that has a more than 50% chance of becoming a ppg player and has exceeded expectations to date.

Never wanted to trade him for Schenn. Was just saying that Schenn possibly having an upside somewhat close to Monahan made his contract a very good deal.

But right now ... today.... Brouwer is a 30 year old who had his career season as a 28 year old 3 seasons ago 25 goals 43 pts.

Being optimistic Brouwer will be able to stay as a 40-45 pt 200 hit player for at least 2 years. The chances of him exceeding his career best scoring at this point in his career are very small.

The Flames are paying him 4.5M with these expectations.

Schenn had signed for 4 years and the low end of his expectations is to be a 40-45 pt player at 5.125M x4 for the next 4 years.

Now that they are signed and both will be UFA's in 4 years I would be pretty confident that most teams would trade Brouwer for Schenn in a heartbeat.

Schenn's downside is protected by him being a physical player, Monahan's is not.

Keep Monahan and Brouwer and trade Frolik for Schenn ... absolutely!!

Schenn's career path is what I see as similar to Bennett's....

I wouldn't argue with you that Brouwer's contract is a little rich. Flames had to overpay for a UFA to fill a need on the team that they didn't see being filled internally anytime soon. That's why you are always better off building internally. But I think to your point, Gaudreau and Monahan need some people to play with now, as their peak form may not be far off at all.

[doctajones428]

Schenn Year 1: 1 GP 0 Points
Monahan Year 1: 75 GP 35 Points

Schenn Year 2: 8 GP 2 Points
Monahan Year 2: 81 GP 62 Points

Schenn Year 3: 54 GP 18 Points
Monahan Year 3: 81 GP 63 Points

It took Schenn 6 years to put up the amount of points Monahan did in 3. Yes Schenn has put up comparable numbers to Monahan the past 3 years, but you need to look at the years before that

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

...Schenn's career path is what I see as similar to Bennett's....

I don't get this at all. I don't see much in common between Schenn's playing style and Bennett's, and moreover I am struggling to see any commonalities between their current career trajectories. Schenn did not play his first full season in the NHL until he was 20-years old, two full years after his draft-year. He played 54 games, and scored 12 goals and 18 points. Bennett's first full season in the NHL this last year was his 19-year-old season, and he outpaced both of Schenn's first two NHL seasons at a younger age.

I think you are very badly underselling Bennett's potential here.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't get this at all. I don't see much in common between Schenn's playing style and Bennett's, and moreover I am struggling to see any commonalities between their current career trajectories. Schenn did not play his first full season in the NHL until he was 20-years old, two full years after his draft-year. He played 54 games, and scored 12 goals and 18 points. Bennett's first full season in the NHL this last year was his 19-year-old season, and he outpaced both of Schenn's first two NHL seasons at a younger age.

I think you are very badly underselling Bennett's potential here.

Schenn came off of his elc with 192 NHL games 40 goals and 87 pts

Bennett has 82 potential NHL games left in his ELC ... so far 77 game 18 goals and 37 pts....

He would have to be scary good in 2016-17 to get to the point that Schenn was at when he finished his ELC. a 22 goal- 50 pt season.

I don't see a 6x6 for Bennett next off season.....closer to Schenn's first non-elc contract 2.5x2

Schenn did not break in on a #26 in the league team he broke in on a #3 in the league team.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Schenn came off of his elc with 192 NHL games 40 goals and 87 pts

Bennett has 82 potential NHL games left in his ELC ... so far 77 game 18 goals and 37 pts....

He would have to be scary good in 2016-17 to get to the point that Schenn was at when he finished his ELC. a 22 goal- 50 pt season.

I don't see a 6x6 for Bennett next off season.....closer to Schenn's first non-elc contract 2.5x2

Schenn did not break in on a #26 in the league team he broke in on a #3 in the league team.

I can easily see 50 points from Sam next year.

However, he seems to be more a likely candidate for a bridge deal, you're right.

[Dajazz]

Market value contract. What's the fuss about? Good, young player with pedigree and the performance to back it up.

[Firebot]

For crying out loud. Schenn is almost 25 years old. Bennett just turned 20. Heck, Monahan is 21. Schenn wasn't even in the league at Bennett's current age. Schenn is closer to Backlund than either Monahan or Bennett and this new salary reflects that.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Schenn came off of his elc with 192 NHL games 40 goals and 87 pts

Bennett has 82 potential NHL games left in his ELC ... so far 77 game 18 goals and 37 pts....

He would have to be scary good in 2016-17 to get to the point that Schenn was at when he finished his ELC. a 22 goal- 50 pt season.

I don't see a 6x6 for Bennett next off season.....closer to Schenn's first non-elc contract 2.5x2...

I would agree that Bennett could be a good candidate to receive a bridge contract, but I continue to fail to see how he in any significant way compares to Brayden Schenn. The bottom line here is that Bennett is a better player, and I would be not at all surprised to see that reflected in his second contract.

I maintain that I think you are very badly underselling Bennett's potential with this strange comparison to Schenn.

[IgiTang]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Schenn came off of his elc with 192 NHL games 40 goals and 87 pts

Bennett has 82 potential NHL games left in his ELC ... so far 77 game 18 goals and 37 pts....

He would have to be scary good in 2016-17 to get to the point that Schenn was at when he finished his ELC. a 22 goal- 50 pt season.

I don't see a 6x6 for Bennett next off season.....closer to Schenn's first non-elc contract 2.5x2

Schenn did not break in on a #26 in the league team he broke in on a #3 in the league team.

I'm a bit confused by this. The numbers would suggest they have close to the same ppg in these years, havnt done the actual math so I could be wrong but it looks close.

Schenn did it on the #3 team in the league, Bennett on the #26 team.

Schenn had more years under his belt and Bennett recently missed almost an entire year of junior development, jumps to the NHL as 19 year old, plays a much different style of game, but are comparable for how they performed when breaking into the league?

I'm not seeing it.

Agreed with you and TC that Bennett could be prime for a bridge deal, but as you said Ricardo, Bennett would have to be scary good next season to eclipse Schenn? I don't see why he can't and won't based on the points I raised alone.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

I'm a bit confused by this. The numbers would suggest they have close to the same ppg in these years, havnt done the actual math so I could be wrong but it looks close.

Schenn did it on the #3 team in the league, Bennett on the #26 team.

Schenn had more years under his belt and Bennett recently missed almost an entire year of junior development, jumps to the NHL as 19 year old, plays a much different style of game, but are comparable for how they performed when breaking into the league?

I'm not seeing it.

Agreed with you and TC that Bennett could be prime for a bridge deal, but as you said Ricardo, Bennett would have to be scary good next season to eclipse Schenn? I don't see why he can't and won't based on the points I raised alone.

It seems that I am always tamping down expectations to what is reasonable.

I did not even look at the thread: how many points will the Flames get if Tkachuk wins the Calder.

a 50 pt 22 goal season would be scary good for Bennett.

The only way that I can see that happening is if he gets to play with Gaudreau and gets 3+ minutes a game on the PP.

Right now it would seem that in terms of TOI Bennett is going to be behind Monahan and Backlund. Monahan will get 18-20 minutes, Backlund 16-18 , Stajan 12 that leaves Bennett with 14-16 minutes.

The highest scoring C in the NHL with less than 16 minutes of ice time last year was Spooner with 49 pts.... next is Wennberg with 40 pts and then Zach Smith with 36 pts ... the same as Bennett had as a winger.

So it would be a scary good year for Bennett to get 50 pts next year.

----------

Also why do Schenn and Bennett play such a different game? They are the same size play an aggressive physical game with superior skills and an edge.

Schenn got better as he grew up filled in and I fully expect Bennett to do as well.


Who would you compare Bennett's style as a player to if not Schenn?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It seems that I am always tamping down expectations to what is reasonable.

I did not even look at the thread: how many points will the Flames get if Tkachuk wins the Calder.

a 50 pt 22 goal season would be scary good for Bennett.

The only way that I can see that happening is if he gets to play with Gaudreau and gets 3+ minutes a game on the PP.

Right now it would seem that in terms of TOI Bennett is going to be behind Monahan and Backlund. Monahan will get 18-20 minutes, Backlund 16-18 , Stajan 12 that leaves Bennett with 14-16 minutes.

The highest scoring C in the NHL with less than 16 minutes of ice time last year was Spooner with 49 pts.... next is Wennberg with 40 pts and then Zach Smith with 36 pts ... the same as Bennett had as a winger.

So it would be a scary good year for Bennett to get 50 pts next year.

----------

Also why do Schenn and Bennett play such a different game? They are the same size play an aggressive physical game with superior skills and an edge.

Schenn got better as he grew up filled in and I fully expect Bennett to do as well.


Who would you compare Bennett's style as a player to if not Schenn?

Last year, AS A 19 YEAR OLD ROOKIE, Bennett got 15 minutes of ice-time and had 18G and 18A. He had what can only be described as terrible puck luck, with multiple posts hit and what? 5 or 6 goals disallowed? Imagining that he will improve from 18 to 22 goals this year, at the veteran age of 20, does not seem like too much of a leap to me.

He also had no wingers. Like none. He might as well have had me on his line. Yet he still managed 18 assists. Despite the fact that his linemates did squat all year. He will have better wingers this year - guaranteed. So it is not hard to imagine that his assist totals will rise. From 18 to 30ish? Not all all difficult to imagine, IMO.

He will also almost certainly get more ice-time this season than he got last year. Getting 15 minutes of TOI as a 19 year old is actually pretty impressive. And he deserved more. He will definitely get more this year and I would bet that it is probably going to be in the 17-18 minute range. And it is probably safe to assume that his PP TOI will rise as well, from the 1:57 he got last year.

Based on these factors, it is not at all unreasonable to assume 50 pts this year. And personally, I would be disappointed if he didn't get at least that many.

Bennett is not a comparable for Schenn. He is on track to be significantly better.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

^^^ Just wanted to point out that Bennett played the bulk of last year at LW. IIRC, he was primarily playing with Backlund and Frolik. Those aren't exactly terrible line mates, but the rest of your points stand.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

^^^ Just wanted to point out that Bennett played the bulk of last year at LW. IIRC, he was primarily playing with Backlund and Frolik. Those aren't exactly terrible line mates, but the rest of your points stand.

And he put up some good points with them.

When they moved him to C, with crappy line-mates, his points dried up.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And he put up some good points with them.

When they moved him to C, with crappy line-mates, his points dried up.

Yeah, I know, but it was the last 20-25 games of the year. It didn't represent the majority of his time last season. That's all.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Yeah, I know, but it was the last 20-25 games of the year. It didn't represent the majority of his time last season. That's all.

Which is enough to be relevant to this conversation.

First 53 games: .53 PPG
Last 24 games: .33 PPG

Take the .53 PPG, and up his minutes from 15 to 17 pro rata, and presto! you're already at 49 points.

[formulate]

Bennett's points per 60 at even strength was 1.67 last year.

He produced above this figure when playing with Frolik, Backlund, Gaudreau, Hudler and Colborne.
He produced below it with Granlund (1 point in 178 minutes 5 on 5, yikes), Ferland, Jooris and Jones.
He played less than 100 minutes with all other forwards.

Not surprising at all, he scored more when playing with better players. Hopefully he should have some consistently better linemates this year. This would help in production, in addition to improving as a playing himself, and possibly earning more ice time.