Last thing on the checklist - Sign Monahan and Gaudreau

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by jayswin

And maybe not so much "Hey, you partied a little too much last season and were reported as not in perfect shape a few times at practice, so that's going to cost you $2 million a year", but more just "Hey, we believe you're the player everyone thinks you are and think you contract expectations are fair, but these patterns are a little concerning if we're putting pen to paper on $50+mil dollars of our owners money.

Patterns?

It was one instance, and everyone from the coach to the GM talked about it the week after as though it was two young men in their early 20s who made a mistake during a process they're still learning.

It seems beyond far fetched that has any implication in contract negotiations.

[Manhattanboy]

I simply wondered whether it was possible that there was more to what was reported. Given the reaction it was foolish to raise this (a) several weeks after the incident and (b) in a thread that is essentially a countdown to an announcement of new contracts for the pair. You would think I was liable for defamation if not gross unfairness.

[GoJetsGo]

I think the frustrating part is this happens every off season with one thing or another.

Something that needs to get done drags on, and a small select contingent of the fan base gets overly worried. There seems to be a select few around here who find a way to be worried by just about everything.

The longer this goes on, the more those people come out of the woodwork with "gut feelings" it's due to this or that... when in reality these are massive, multi million dollar deals that need to be orchestrated carefully as Calgary is going to be in a difficult cap situation through most of those years.

Things like wondering if that one, single indiscretion might have something to do with the delay is one step away from suggesting maybe Gaudreau is mad about that Valentines day video CalgaryFlamesTV ran on him and that's caused him to have cold feet.


People need to stop worrying. All three parties have said "it will get done".

[Believer]

Originally Posted by GoJetsGo

I think the frustrating part is this happens every off season with one thing or another.

Something that needs to get done drags on, and a small select contingent of the fan base gets overly worried. There seems to be a select few around here who find a way to be worried by just about everything.

The longer this goes on, the more those people come out of the woodwork with "gut feelings" it's due to this or that... when in reality these are massive, multi million dollar deals that need to be orchestrated carefully as Calgary is going to be in a difficult cap situation through most of those years.

Things like wondering if that one, single indiscretion might have something to do with the delay is one step away from suggesting maybe Gaudreau is mad about that Valentines day video Cal
People need to stop worrying. All three parties have said "it will get done".

garyFlamesTV ran on him and that's caused him to have cold feet.

As far as Im concerned things taking a while is a good sign. It means management is seriously weighing what the priorities are for the club moving forward. We have a window beginning to open here. Its best not squandered. I hope both our young rfas are pleased with their deals and respect that this is a business.

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I don't understand.
There is absolutely zero "worry or fear' they won't sign long term deals. None. At all. Zero.
You don't think 6 years is long term?
If 6 was what the Flames wanted, it would be done already.
8 is a bit different deal.

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I'm not worried about Gaudreau or Monahan signing long term deals. They'll get done.

What I was saying is that there seems to be a contingent on CP that always has a "sky is falling" mentality about this team. First they were worried that Johnny was going to use the NCAA "loophole" and not even sign with Calgary (despite the fact that was no evidence to suggest that). Now these same people are worried about Johnny and Mony not signing similar deals to their contemporaries.

The fear seems to be based on a belief that star players don't like Calgary and want to bolt from the team as soon as possible. However neither player has suggested they don't like Calgary. Neither player has suggested they want to play for another team (yes, Johnny said in a hometown interview that playing closer to home would be nice).

There is no indication that the Flames as an organization or the city of Calgary are non-desirable for players.

This is why I said that any suggestion that they're trying to get 5 year deals, simply so they can leave Calgary quicker, is baseless. There is no evidence of that whatsoever.

[sureLoss]

Gaudreau makes an appearance at Hartley's hockey camp:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1086869291356234

FWIW both Gaudreau and Hartley wearing Flames gear

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore

...The fear seems to be based on a belief that star players don't like Calgary and want to bolt from the team as soon as possible. However neither player has suggested they don't like Calgary. Neither player has suggested they want to play for another team (yes, Johnny said in a hometown interview that playing closer to home would be nice)...

It is really important to stress that in that interview Gaudreau was responding to a direct question about playing in Philadelphia. The interviewer asked him about whether he would like to play closer to home, and he responded by saying something along the lines of "sure. My family and friends would more easily see all the games, and would not have to stay up so late."

It honestly sounded like NOTHING MORE than an effort made on his part to be polite, and to deflect the question.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Gaudreau makes an appearance at Hartley's hockey camp:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1086869291356234

FWIW both Gaudreau and Hartley wearing Flames gear

Love it. Chokes me up a bit to hear about Hartley in the airport and now here still in full Flames gear. This guy loved it here.

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It is really important to stress that in that interview Gaudreau was responding to a direct question about playing in Philadelphia. The interviewer asked him about whether he would like to play closer to home, and he responded by saying something along the lines of "sure. My family and friends would more easily see all the games, and would not have to stay up so late."

It honestly sounded like NOTHING MORE than an effort made on his part to be polite, and to deflect the question.

I completely agree. I don't think what he said on a hometown radio station is any indication that he's looking for a way to play in Philly or Boston.

[Stupid]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Gaudreau makes an appearance at Hartley's hockey camp:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1086869291356234

FWIW both Gaudreau and Hartley wearing Flames gear

Have to think this will work towards dispelling rumors that said Johnny (and/or Mony) wanted Hartley out.

[StrykerSteve]

These guys are about to make a 7-8 year commitment. It's taking time because they want to feel comfortable in that commitment.

My guess is Johnny signs for 7 years and Sean for 8. That staggers their deals so Calgary doesn't have to re-up both of them at the same time when they are in their prime.

Sean will get 52/8 and Johnny 52.5/7. Something along those lines.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by T@T

If Matthews is even close to the player as advertised that will change in spades now that Toronto has it's #1, He'll probably make more endorsement money than all the other 29 first rounders put together next year.

I think the last sentence (or clause—did you intend the comma or the capitalisation?) is probably true for most first-rounders in the aftermath of the draft. But IF this actually happens at a significant level—and I am far from convinced that it will—then this would only be true of Toronto, and nowhere else. The point made to which I responded was that there were highly valuable endorsements available to players (specifically American players[?]) in large, American markets that are unattainable in Calgary. Matthews' situation in Toronto is not really relevant to the point ricardo is attempting to show.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

The Liberty Bell and Rocky statue for starters.

Who cares about their fluff and Americana mementos? Give me Ghost bear. Plus.

[chopper89]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Not worried about this at all.
Don't think Monahan can realistically expect to get more than $6M AAV, if you look at his comparables (Forsberg, Barkov, etc)
Johnny on the other hand could conceivably ask for $7.5M (a la Tarasenko, O'Reilly)
I imagine they will both come in around these marks and the question now is just agreeing on term....I'd be thrilled with 8 years for both.

I agree with you, but is anyone else sorta dumbfounded by how the league works this way now??

I think Gaudreau has been fantastic, but all he's really done is avoid a sophomore slump. That's great for sure...but by having effectively a very good first 2 years to his career..he's looking realistically at a $50-60 million dollar contract.

Amazing how the cap era has shifted these kind of big paydays to the front of a player's career, from the back end like it was 10-15 yrs ago. Not saying it's wrong, as a team theoretically gets more out of the next 6 yrs. of Johnny's career than they would if he was 31 yrs. old and signing this deal...but it also sheds light on how much pressure these young players are under.

You do well your first couple years in the league, and you are set for life.

[Moneyhands23]

Sign soon.

Flames fans everywhere

[JerryUnderscore]

I had some time on my hands, so I decided to take a look at the second contracts for different players. You can check out the spreadsheet here.

This is by no means an exhaustive list (or even too scientific honestly). I took the top 10 point & goal scorers this year as well as the top 5 draft picks from 2010 through 2013.

I've taken a look at when each players ELC expired, when they signed their second contract, the term and AAV of the contract. I also looked at the salary cap in the first year of that contract and the percent of a teams cap that contract took up.

There's a couple really interesting things here.

1. 14 of the 35 contracts (40%) were signed after their ELC had expired. Jamie Benn is the biggest outlier in that he signed his 209 days after, but I believe that had more to do with the expiration of the CBA.
   
2. Stamkos signed his second contract 17 days after his ELC expired. (We're only 11 days out with Gaudreau and Monahan.)
   
3. Blake Wheeler and Adam Larsson both signed 1 year deals after their ELCs, which when considering average term length mostly offset the 10 & 13 year deals signed by Backstrom and Ovechkin signed respectively.
   
4. The average term length tended just shy of 5 years. However, based on the recent signings of Johnny & Mony's comparable, we're probably looking at 6-8 year deals. (It's also been suggested by some that they take shorter term 2-3 year bridge deals. A surprising number of players have done this, but I suspect we're looking at something closer to max term.)
   
5. There's a surprising correlation between the length of a deal and the percent of a teams salary cap that the first year of a contract took up. If you isolate just the contracts for a length of 6-8 years, the average salary cap percentage is 8.96%. If we assume that either player will sign for the percentage we're looking at a 6.5408M AAV.

In some ways this isn't entirely new information. Most of us have been suspecting that they will sign for something in the 7-8 year range. If the cap hit percentage holds true, then we could see them sign for a combined cap hit of roughly 13.0816... or something like that.

Anyway, the data is in the spreadsheet if anyone else wants to pull out any other useful notes.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think the last sentence (or clause—did you intend the comma or the capitalisation?) is probably true for most first-rounders in the aftermath of the draft. But IF this actually happens at a significant level—and I am far from convinced that it will—then this would only be true of Toronto, and nowhere else. The point made to which I responded was that there were highly valuable endorsements available to players (specifically American players[?]) in large, American markets that are unattainable in Calgary. Matthews' situation in Toronto is not really relevant to the point ricardo is attempting to show.

Re: highly valuable endorsement deals in large American markets. Is this really true? Does Doughty make big endorsement money in LA? Tavares in NY? It's an honest question but I rather doubt it personally. I think those guys are pretty invisible in their cities.

[OmegaV4]

I know that there isn't anything to worry about...but...

What is the delay in getting the contracts done? Sheer magnitude? Or something else?

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Re: highly valuable endorsement deals in large American markets. Is this really true? Does Doughty make big endorsement money in LA? Tavares in NY? It's an honest question but I rather doubt it personally. I think those guys are pretty invisible in their cities.

I would agree. My guess would be that players (in general) make way less in US cities on endorsements than they would in Canadian, with playing for the Leafs or Canadians being far and away your most lucrative options.

Only exception would be players that literally become bigger than the game, then your fame makes you better off in the US to cash in massive national deals. However, I don't think that's happened to a hockey star since Gretzky and Lemieux. Even though Crosby is as great as he is, he hasn't risen to stardom in the US where I think he's making more by being in a US market........although I will say he's big enough that not being in Toronto likely hasn't cost him anything north of the boarder either.

[driveway]

Originally Posted by chopper89

Amazing how the cap era has shifted these kind of big paydays to the front of a player's career, from the back end like it was 10-15 yrs ago. Not saying it's wrong, as a team theoretically gets more out of the next 6 yrs. of Johnny's career than they would if he was 31 yrs. old and signing this deal...but it also sheds light on how much pressure these young players are under.

You do well your first couple years in the league, and you are set for life.

Makes sense, here's forward point-production by age.

On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp -- they hit 80% at age 31, 70% at age 32-33, and 60% at age 35.

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/1...s-age-analysis

According to this we can reasonably expect three more years of increasing numbers from Johnny, four from Sean, and six from Sam.