[Signing] Flames sign Brouwer (4 yrs, $4.5mil AAV, NTC)

[MrMastodonFarm]

Don't care if you disagree with me or not, but at least make sense.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

...The Flames will have intentions on becoming a cup contending team sometime before Brouwer's contract is finished. My main concern is that I don't think a team with Brouwer and Frolik as their #1 and #2 right wingers will ever be a favorite for the cup, unless JG is the best player in the league, both Bennet and Monahan become elite #1 centres, and Tkachuk can be a 1st line winger stuck on a second line...

I think the Flames will be entering that window inside of the next 2–3 years, and I also don't see any problem with having two players like Brouwer and Frolik in the Flames' top six in that time.

The Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins' top-six forwards scored 85, 59, 58, 51, 40, and 32-points last season respectively. The Stanley Cup finalist San Jose Sharks' top-six forwards scored 82, 78, 48, 46, 43, 36-points last season.

In 2015 the Stanley Cup championship Chicago Blackhawks' top-six forwards scored 66, 64, 61, 52, 43, 37-points, and the finalist TB Lightning's top-six forwards scored 72, 72, 65, 63, 54, 48-points, but unlike the other three teams did not have a single defenseman in their top-six scorers.

With a lineup consisting of Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund, Bennett, Frolik, Brouwer and Tkachuk up front those numbers look to me to be very manageable predictions of future production at some point in the next three years. This is especially so with three top-line producing defensemen in the lineup.

Treliving echoed in his interview today something that I and others on this site have been saying quite a bit, and that is that winning teams are formed around playing pairs, and not necessarily set lines of threes. This means that EVERY team is going to have at least one and probably two players in their top-six that are not sure-fire top six scoring forwards. The Flames look to be well constructed and balanced to reflect this sort of thinking. After all, the Penguins won the Cup this year with players like Corey Sheary and Karl Hagelin playing on the Wings of Crosby and Kessel.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Bennett? What suggests to you Toffoli returns anything of the order of Sam Bennett. Jankowski, Kylington, or Andersson maybe.

what did Ryan O'Rielly cost? Zadorov, Grigorenko, and a high second.
what did Brandon Saad cost? Dano, Anisimov, and some spare parts.
what did Dougie Hamilton cost? 15, 45, 51 overall.

Brandon Saad is a winger, not a centre, and had only one 23-goal season to his credit at the time of that trade.

Hamiton was traded by an idiot, is believed to have wanted out (thus forcing Boston's hand), and it is very likely that we got him in part due to a desire to put one over on Chiarelli.

Ryan O'Reilly is your best comparison. And he was dealt for two guys drafted in the first round and a second rounder (plus spare parts both ways). This for a guy who already held-out once.

In terms of Toffoli, Lombardi is no amateur. He knows the value of his player, and unlike the Hamilton and O'Reilly situations, isn't in a spot where the relationship is damaged. So yeah, based on what O'Reilly got, I would say Bennett and a first would be a good comparable.

To the other part of your argument - that Toffoli would be paid Sean Monahan dollars - that's a reasonable salary for a dominant forward over the grand portion of his prime. The difference is now you're looking to fill small holes cheap. I would not prefer Brouwer+Frolik at 8.5M for Toffoli at 6.5M or Kessel at 6.8. Even if that leaves you short a forward quantity-wise. YMMV.

Remember, it's Brouwer + Frolik for $8.5m or Toffoli - Bennett - First rounder for $6.5 million. You can't just speak of opportunity cost and then just pretend certain losses won't exist with your preferred scenario.

[tko]

nvm

[timbit]

Never mind what people think of Brouwer or Frolic for a second.
They cost us nothing to acquire except cap space, which IMO we got good value re contract and term .

The tier one UFA were too expensive and term was too long.

When you trade for a Toffoli type player you are going to give up significant assets to acquire the player. By significant ...yes Bennett and perhaps picks....high ones.

I feel like this is eroding into a Oilerfanish debate.

Lombardi hangs up in a Ney York second if you call and offer him all three of Jankowski, Kylinger and Andersson for Toffolii.

Yeah , I'll give you that Brouwer may be .5 mill per season too much but he fills a gaping hole and didn't cost us any of our top young assets or picks. Cost of doing business in a free market.

I'm not certain that everyone is totally clear on how unrestricted free agency works.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Brandon Saad is a winger, not a centre, and had only one 23-goal season to his credit at the time of that trade.

Tyler Toffoli is a winger in the NHL as well, though. But yes, Saad had a worse resume. But value with young players isn't always defined by resume.

Ryan O'Reilly is your best comparison. And he was dealt for two guys drafted in the first round and a second rounder (plus spare parts both ways). This for a guy who already held-out once.

Drafted in the first round, but neither of those guys even together hold remotely the value of Sam Bennett. Whether we have guys of exactly comparable value is debatable but I'd think the Shinkaruks and Jankowskis are closer than the Bennetts and Tkachuks. That much is clear from draft position alone but post-draft value also favours Bennett over the other two.

In terms of Toffoli, Lombardi is no amateur. He knows the value of his player, and unlike the Hamilton and O'Reilly situations, isn't in a spot where the relationship is damaged. So yeah, based on what O'Reilly got, I would say Bennett and a first would be a good comparable.

I agree Lombardi is no amateur, but there also aren't 29 other teams that have the cap space, asset base, and roster hole to pursue aggressively.

Very rarely are Sam Bennett type players moved at all and the Kings know that kind of ask is unrealistic. Teams in cap hell generally accept that they are "losing the deal" assuming they are not much worse off.

And this is all digression from the initial point - that there are always options IF you have the cap flexibility. Which in itself is an asset whose value needs to be considered. There just isn't much room in the NHL specifically to make that flexibility - particularly when over-30 players are involved - outside of expiring contracts and a handful of unequivocally undesirable options like Buyouts, Salary Retention, and negative-value trades.

[Resolute 14]

If you honestly think that the likes of a Shinkaruk (traded straight up for the lesser Granlund, dude - albeit by an idiot) and Jankowski are in the ballpark on value, then yes, there are 29 teams that are in on Toffoli.

I mean, really. You're going to argue that a guy drafted 6th is automatically worth more than guys drafted 12th/13th. Okay. Don't then turn around and claim that guys drafted in the 20s are then comparable to those guys. That is remarkably self-serving, and as a result, self-defeating.

This puts aside the fact that Toffoli is the kind of player you make room for. That includes LA.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

If you honestly think that the likes of a Shinkaruk (traded straight up for the lesser Granlund, dude - albeit by an idiot) and Jankowski are in the ballpark on value, then yes, there are 29 teams that are in on Toffoli.

Value is in the eye of the GM /Pro Scouts on the other side. But no, 29 teams do not have cap (or internal budget) flexibility to be in on Toffoli.

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I mean, really. You're going to argue that a guy drafted 6th is automatically worth more than guys drafted 12th/13th. Okay. Don't then turn around and claim that guys drafted in the 20s are then comparable to those guys. That is remarkably self-serving, and as a result, self-defeating.

If you say so. If that's how you're going to support that Nikita Zadorov and Mikael Grigorenko are similarly valuable to Sam Bennett.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

No single stat, tool, or observation tells the whole story. I like to believe that I try to use everything that is available to me as a fan to evaluate players. Hero charts are a tool and nothing more. I haven't used them in any other way.

Which is why your method of discussion on July 1st was to, multiple times, post a HERO chart in reply to people without any further clarification?

I rustled your hair because you legitimately used them and continue to use statistics as your sole basis for player analysis. It's OK to like HERO charts but it doesn't lend to very good analysis when you go "Oh, Brouwer vs Glencross? I'll show them a HERO chart!"

It's a good joke though. Don't ruin it by being offended by it.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

If you say so. If that's how you're going to support that Nikita Zadorov and Mikael Grigorenko are similarly valuable to Sam Bennett.

No, I am arguing that Bennett would be the absolute minimum starting point in a trade for Tyler Toffoli - who I also think is worth more than Ryan O'Reilly. Which is why I am suggesting one former first rounder plus a first round pick in this deal, vs. two former first rounders and a high second round pick in the O'Reilly deal.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

No, I am arguing that Bennett would be the absolute minimum starting point in a trade for Tyler Toffoli - who I also think is worth more than Ryan O'Reilly.

A Byng-winning center known for an elite two-way game (Age 24) with 194 points in the prior 273 games to the trade (58 point pace) is worth less than a (very good) winger (Age 24, Age 25 a year from now) who has 107 points in the prior 158 games (56 point pace) ?

I'm curious why that would be the case? Because he scored 31 goals once VS 28 goals? Even if Toffoli hits 60 points next season, that'll put his past three season average on par with what ROR's past four season average was before his trade. If the ask for Toffoli is Sam Bennett then the ask for ROR should have been nothing short of Sam Reinhart.

[ricosuave]

Sorry if I missed it, but I thought Burke/Treliving were adamant they weren't handing out NTC/NMCs anymore...

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by ricosuave

Sorry if I missed it, but I thought Burke/Treliving were adamant they weren't handing out NTC/NMCs anymore...

They only saidit about NMC's

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by ricosuave

Sorry if I missed it, but I thought Burke/Treliving were adamant they weren't handing out NTC/NMCs anymore...

They only said they won't be handing out "Full NMCs" (NMCs acting over the full span of the contract). That avoids Iginla type 2013 situations. Even Giordano doesn't have an NMC in the last few years of his deal.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by ricosuave

Sorry if I missed it, but I thought Burke/Treliving were adamant they weren't handing out NTC/NMCs anymore...

I doubt it very much. Unless the Flames aren't interested in signing or re-signing big name players any more. Everyone wants to control their destiny somewhat. I would be willing to bet both Monahan and Gaudreau get NMCs when they sign their long-term deals.


And Guaranteed EV - Among other reasons, O'Reilly's difficult history and, thanks to Feaster, he already had a $6 million cap hit - nearly double that of Toffoli.

And to put this to bed, if you think there is even the slightest remote chance that the Flames would not be giving up Bennett in such a trade, then we're done here. You are operating in a world not of our own.

[ricosuave]

LOL thanks!

[hockey.modern]

Hey, we got someone that can actually fight now! Sorry Bollig..

[Gaskal]

I'm thinking he scores multiple Gordie Howe hat tricks next season.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by hockey.modern

Hey, we got someone that can actually fight now! Sorry Bollig..

Bollig will be a regular on the roster next season, I wouldn't get your hopes too high.

[AC]

Originally Posted by hockey.modern

Hey, we got someone that can actually fight now! Sorry Bollig..[/IMG]