[News] Flames only qualify 4 players. 9 go to UFA on July 1st (incl Jooris, Colborne, Ortio)

[GioforPM]

I wonder if Brad handled the arbitration cases in Phoenix. It seems like he dislikes them a lot (probably for good reason - from what I understand they can be nasty).

[getbak]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I thought I remembered something about Gaudreau's offer sheet status. Seems weird, why is it? Only 2 pro years (even though he technically used one of his ELC years with the one game)?

Yes, that's exactly why. He didn't play enough games in the first year of his contract to qualify as a year of experience (10 pro games are required). He's at the end of his 3-year ELC, but he doesn't have the 3 years of experience that are required for Group 2 free agency.

[Strange Brew]

Looking at this list kind of drives home the point that we have not seen many quality players developed on the AHL team and become successful on the Flames lately. That is going to have to change at some point.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Looking at this list kind of drives home the point that we have not seen many quality players developed on the AHL team and become successful on the Flames lately. That is going to have to change at some point.

Yes and no. You need to have a bunch of players cycling through the organization at all times. Most players do not develop into NHL players. Only 50% of 1st rounders, 33% of 2nd rounds and 15 % of everyone else play 100 games at the NHL level.

Calgary just happens to have a lot of competition at all levels of the organization and few spots anywhere, so most of the players have to put up or move on. The Flames now have a bunch of new guys Pollock, Jankowski, Mangiapane among others that will slide into the AHL to replace the forwards that are leaving and Rittich has already replaced Poulin.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Yes and no. You need to have a bunch of players cycling through the organization at all times. Most players do not develop into NHL players. Only 50% of 1st rounders, 33% of 2nd rounds and 15 % of everyone else play 100 games at the NHL level.

Calgary just happens to have a lot of competition at all levels of the organization and few spots anywhere, so most of the players have to put up or move on. The Flames now have a bunch of new guys Pollock, Jankowski, Mangiapane among others that will slide into the AHL to replace the forwards that are leaving and Rittich has already replaced Poulin.

I hear you, but you ultimately have to judge success at the AHL level by how many NHLers you develop. Yeah the Flames have nice looking prospects to replace Agostino, Arnold etc. which is good.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I hear you, but you ultimately have to judge success at the AHL level by how many NHLers you develop. Yeah the Flames have nice looking prospects to replace Agostino, Arnold etc. which is good.

The rebuild started in earnest in 2011 once we had a first round pick and it was the year that we got Gaudreau. Looking at those prospects from then on.

2011

Baertschi - Traded for pick that became Rasmus Andersson (top D prospect)
Granlund - Traded for Shinkaruk, who should be in the NHL
Wotherspoon - Still in the Org.
Gaudreau - All-Star
Brossoit - Traded for NHL player

2012

Jankowski - Current top Center prospect
Sieloff - Traded for NHL player
Gillies - Current top Goalie prospect
Kulak - Played in the NHL
Culkin - Injury plagued
Gordon and DeBlouw - Not signed

2013

Monahan - 60+ point Center in the NHL
Poirier and Klimchuk - Wingers that are looking like they will eventually become 3rd line wingers in the same rough mould as Frolik, too soon to tell though.
Kanzig and Harrison - Projects that are still to early to tell with
Roy and Gilmour - Let go

2014

Bennett - Good rookie year, top prospect
McDonald - 2nd best young goalie in the organization
Smith - Bottom six upside guy that is still too raw to see.
Hickey - Jumped up into the top 3 D-prospects
Ollas Mattsson - Still has potential.
Carroll - Decent quality bottom 6 type prospect

In all from that

In the first round - 3/6 hit already with the other three being 3 of the top 5 forward prospects in the org.
In the second round - 1/5 hit (Granlund) with one traded and the others (spoon/Smith/McDonald) still having NHL potential
In the 3rd-7th - 1 Hit (Gaudreau), 2 high quality goalies (Brossoit, Gillies), 2 good D-men (Hickey, Kulak), 2 good bottom six prospects (Harrison, Carroll) and 8 fillers or busts.

In order to hit the 50, 33, 15 ratings for those sections, one of the 2nd round prospects needs to reach the NHL and one of the late round picks needs to as well. They already hit the mark with 50% of their firsts from 2011 through 2014 with the potential to go 100% still.

Outside of a couple of later round picks flaming out, most of those guys are either high quality NHL players or are our top prospects. The others like Kanzig and Smith were picked to become roll players. If we start seeing guys like Poirier flame out with regularity, then it might become a larger problem. They have cut bait though and got good value each time they did (Baertschi, Granlund, Sieloff)

[Mass_nerder]

Any news on a Monahan signing?
He seems like a prime offer sheet candidate if he gets to July 1.

[kehatch]

First 25GP: 4G and 11P
Second 25GP: 6G and 11P
Final 24GP: 10G and 22P

13/14: 0.35 ppg
14/15: 0.44 ppg
First 50 games 15/16: 0.44 ppg
Final 25 games 15/16: 0.92 ppg

13/14: 2 games missed
14/15: 18 games missed
15/16: 9 games missed

Unless people think Colborne came into his own the final 25-games last season (at 26) then your talking about a 30-point player that isn't great defensively, who doesn't play physical, and who isn't good on special teams. That is very replaceable for a lot less then 3+ million per season.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Any news on a Monahan signing?
He seems like a prime offer sheet candidate if he gets to July 1.

Can't see it. Monahan was on the stage with management when they drafted Tkachuk. He is a flame through and through. He would have to sign the offer sheet as well.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Any news on a Monahan signing?
He seems like a prime offer sheet candidate if he gets to July 1.

I'd really like to see both him and Gaudreau signed tomorrow

[Vulcan]

I like Colborne and hope he gets re-signed. Treliving's playing a dangerous game in my opinion and could get bit. I'm not saying he's worth $3.6M but those stats showing his last quarter improvement as just taking advantage of our season being over, could also be interpreted as the player improving.

[dying4acup]

It's funny that people are penciling Shinkaruk into the opening day line up next year based on a few meaningless games, and yet not willing to give Colborne credit for his season as a whole. No matter what the Flames position was, they were still playing against NHL teams, most of whom were fighting for a playoff spot.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Any news on a Monahan signing?
He seems like a prime offer sheet candidate if he gets to July 1.

The reason why you see so few offer sheets signed:

The team offering has to knowingly offer more than the player is worth, and usually significantly more, or else the team just easily can match, and says "thank you for doing the work". Knowingly overpaying isn't generally a good way to build a team.

Also, it takes two to even know about an offer sheet, a team has to offer, and the player has to accept. The public doesn't hear about offer sheets that aren't accepted, just like it doesn't hear about other contract offers that weren't accepted.

There's probably a few more offers attempted than we ever hear about, but i would certainly think they are still rare - mostly a waste of everyone's time.

If you are a contender, late first round picks might be ok to give up, but having to overpay for players doesn't really push you over the top, so it doesn't happen. Bottom teams may be desperate for help, and may be more willing to overpay, but those picks are more likely to be higher draft picks, draft picks that a bottom team desperately needs.

If you are a player who is being targeted, and you sign an offer sheet, you had better be comfortable with playing out that entire contract with the team that owns your rights. For example, Weber, when he signed his long offer sheet deal (with Philadelphia), doesn't sign that deal unless he is very willing to play out that contract in Nashville. You don't sign an offer sheet because you want to go play for a different team. Philadelphia tried to poison pill the Weber contract as much as possible, but Nashville still matched.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I like Colborne and hope he gets re-signed. Treliving's playing a dangerous game in my opinion and could get bit. I'm not saying he's worth $3.6M but those stats showing his last quarter improvement as just taking advantage of our season being over, could also be interpreted as the player improving.

Which is far more common:
1) Player triples his production midway through a season for a short stretch did to some good bounces and new line mate
2) Player suddenly gets 3 times better midway through a season

[Strange Brew]

Caged Great I appreciate the analysis but I don't really agree with the conclusions. The only two NHLers on the list that spent any time on the the Flames AHL team now play for the Canucks. Agree there are interesting prospects on the list but my point is for the Flames to be successful we need players on our roster to develop through the farm system. I don't really see Sven or Granlind as successes since Flames ultimately preferred to start over.

Maybe it I'll happen this year. Not writing anyone off by any stretch. But good teams don't have high draft picks so development is crucial. Jury is still out on our development program.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Caged Great I appreciate the analysis but I don't really agree with the conclusions. The only two NHLers on the list that spent any time on the the Flames AHL team now play for the Canucks. Agree there are interesting prospects on the list but my point is for the Flames to be successful we need players on our roster to develop through the farm system. I don't really see Sven or Granlind as successes since Flames ultimately preferred to start over.

Maybe it I'll happen this year. Not writing anyone off by any stretch. But good teams don't have high draft picks so development is crucial. Jury is still out on our development program.

I agree with you, that they haven't been awesome with developing guys on Stockton/Abbottsford/Adirondack. A few players have made the cut, mostly depth players like Jooris/Hathaway/Ferland. Calgary will need to make sure that guys like Pollock, Klimchuk, Poirier, Jankowski, Shinkaruk, Andersson, Kylington, who are top secondary prospects* need to translate into quality NHL players like Backlund who was the last of that type of player to develop properly.

The main thing with the players that were being shed were picks prior to 2011, is that there were not any high quality players picked from 2009 or 2010. Erixon is the only decent one and he demanded a trade. They didn't have a 2nd in either year. Ferland is the only player that actually hit the NHL and had some success there from those two drafts. Some times your picks just suck (see Nemisz, Greg and Wahl, Mitch). As the drafting has improved, the opportunities for them to turn into quality players increases. Back 8-9 years ago the only guys we had that were even remotely close to being NHL talents were Boyd, Moss, Prust and Nystrom. Not exactly the best crew... and a reason why the Flames fell apart.

*not Gaudreau/Monahan/Bennett/Tkachuk who all skipped or will skip the AHL

[Har-Calgary]

Anyone else getting nervous? By today I thought for sure we'd have Johnny/Mony locked up. Anyone hearing anything about their signings at all?

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Har-Calgary

Anyone else getting nervous? By today I thought for sure we'd have Johnny/Mony locked up. Anyone hearing anything about their signings at all?

Nah, not nervous at all. It'll get done

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Har-Calgary

Anyone else getting nervous? By today I thought for sure we'd have Johnny/Mony locked up. Anyone hearing anything about their signings at all?

I don't think there is any reason to be nervous. The signings will be done before camp, likely they will both be done in the next week or two. There is no genuine threat of losing Monahan so I think we just need to be patient. Maybe Treliving is waiting to see about Colborne or a Free Agent before he finalizes the deal. Maybe he has more salary to shed first. Maybe that's what the Raymond buyout was for. It's hard to say, but what we do know is its a process, and you have to trust the process.

[EldrickOnIce]

Perhaps deals with Gaudreau and Monahan could be done and not announced yet?
Why tip your hand to the rest of the league on your salary structure prior to free agency.
Sounds like a Treliving sort of thing to do.