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Old 06-28-2016, 12:04 PM   #321
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I thought I remembered something about Gaudreau's offer sheet status. Seems weird, why is it? Only 2 pro years (even though he technically used one of his ELC years with the one game)?
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:07 PM   #322
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Yeah I find it strange too. I don't think BT will let it get to this point, but the thought of someone offersheeting Gaudreau with like $9 mil makes me sick.
In the last decade, there have been eight players who have signed offer sheets.

Kesler - Philadelphia
Vanek - Oilers
Penner - Oilers
Backes - Canucks
Bernier - St Louis (Out of spite)
Hjalmarsson - Sharks (Strategy to price Niemi out of Chicago)
Weber - Flyers
O'Reilly - Flames (Jay Feaster, everyone)

Nobody's signed an offer sheet in nearly three years. It's a non issue.
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:13 PM   #323
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In the last decade, there have been eight players who have signed offer sheets.

Kesler - Philadelphia
Vanek - Oilers
Penner - Oilers
Backes - Canucks
Bernier - St Louis (Out of spite)
Hjalmarsson - Sharks (Strategy to price Niemi out of Chicago)
Weber - Flyers
O'Reilly - Flames (Jay Feaster, everyone)

Nobody's signed an offer sheet in nearly three years. It's a non issue.
Yeah, but it's not that often that players of this calibre really hit that market. I think there's kind of an unwritten rule that you just don't do it.

But I think when a player like Gaudreau (although this is erroneous) hits that market, I would think "all is fair in love and war" comes up. Monahan as well. I'd say he is more highly regarded at this time than any players on that list were other than Weber and maybe O'Reilly.
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:27 PM   #324
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In the last decade, there have been eight players who have signed offer sheets.

Kesler - Philadelphia
Vanek - Oilers
Penner - Oilers
Backes - Canucks
Bernier - St Louis (Out of spite)
Hjalmarsson - Sharks (Strategy to price Niemi out of Chicago)
Weber - Flyers
O'Reilly - Flames (Jay Feaster, everyone)

Nobody's signed an offer sheet in nearly three years. It's a non issue.
Unless of course one of the best up and comer centres in the league reaches July 1st without a contract and gets an offer sheet. He'll likely sign in time, but it's certainly not a non issue.
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:36 PM   #325
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Now that i think about it letting Ortio go to arbitration might not have been a bad idea. i doubt he would have gotten over $1 million. If they had it would have opened a 2nd window for buy-outs. I'm pretty sure tomorrow is buy-out day ( last day to place on buy-outs). Too many teams don't know what they are doing right now cap wise, flames included. Having a 2nd option to buy out a player, if they ended up getting someone on July 1st, could have been a big plus.

I doubt really care that they didn't go this route, but it would have been nice for an option farther down the road. I also want them to stay away from the big fishes, but again nice option to have just in case.
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:41 PM   #326
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Unless of course one of the best up and comer centres in the league reaches July 1st without a contract and gets an offer sheet. He'll likely sign in time, but it's certainly not a non issue.
With a stalled cap, almost nobody has the kind of space to offer the kind of money that would give the Flames pause. The Devils have the most cap space right now, but they also have only 11 NHL players under contract. Having $25 million in space looks great until you realize $20 million of it is going to be spent simply to fill out an NHL roster.

Also, fully 10 teams already don't have picks required to even make an offer sheet with the kind of money that would give the Flames pause.

IMO, the risk of Gaudreau suffering a career ending injury falling down the stairs is greater than the risk of his getting offer sheeted.
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:44 PM   #327
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Unless of course one of the best up and comer centres in the league reaches July 1st without a contract and gets an offer sheet. He'll likely sign in time, but it's certainly not a non issue.
A 7.3M or under offer sheet is only a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick.
Over 7.3M, add another 1st
Over 9.1M becomes 4 1st rounders.
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:44 PM   #328
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With a stalled cap, almost nobody has the kind of space to offer the kind of money that would give the Flames pause. Also, fully 10 teams already don't have picks required to even make an offer sheet with the kind of money that would give the Flames pause.

IMO, the risk of Gaudreau suffering a career ending injury falling down the stairs is greater than the risk of his getting offer sheeted.
I was talking about Monahan, Gaudreau can't get offer sheeted. I still think there would be interest and we could get surprised, I get that there's difficulty for a lot of teams, but I don't think the odds are as minimal as you suggest. I could be wrong, though.
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:47 PM   #329
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A 7.3M or under offer sheet is only a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick.
Over 7.3M, add another 1st
Over 9.1M becomes 4 1st rounders.
Is that posted just in case I didn't know or as proof that it's too many assets for most teams to attempt? Not being snarky, just not quite sure how it related to my post.

I could see a team potentially signing away two first, a second and a third for the chance at a franchise centre, one of the best young ones in the league. Even if they know we'll likely match, at which point we could be stuck paying him let's say $8.5 instead of $6.5-$7.

Last edited by jayswin; 06-28-2016 at 12:50 PM.
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:48 PM   #330
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Yeah I could see a team look at an offer sheet above $7.3M.

If you are Buffalo and lose out on Stamkos why not throw an offer sheet out for 5 years at $7.5M.

Thing is that if the Flames are talking 7 or 8 years already then Monahan will have to leave some years on the table.
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:49 PM   #331
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Yeah I could see a team look at an offer sheet above $7.3M.

If you are Buffalo and lose out on Stamkos why not throw an offer sheet out for 5 years at $7.5M.

Thing is that if the Flames are talking 7 or 8 years already then Monahan will have to leave some years on the table.
With O'Reilly, Eichel, and Reinhart, why would they throw away assets to get Monahan?

Vancouver? Sure. Buffalo? I can't see it
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Old 06-28-2016, 12:51 PM   #332
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Is that posted just in case I didn't know or as proof that it's too many assets for most teams to attempt? Not being snarky, just not quite sure how it related to my post.
Ha sorry. I should have explained!
I think it's related because I'm sure the Flames hope to lock Monahan long term at less than 7.3M, and the compensation is nothing to speak of. Easy way to drive the cost of contract to 7.3M. I think the risk is definitely there.

My guess is Treliving let's the offer sheet period pass, assuming no offer gives him a bit more leverage. Which is true unless the offer sheet happens.
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Old 06-28-2016, 01:08 PM   #333
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I'm not concerned about an offer sheet because it seems like Monahan and Gaudreau are both happy in Calgary and want to be here. I suppose if contract negotiations are going poorly and they are frustrated maybe they would consider it but I don't get that feeling, at least not yet. I think Treliving will be fair with them so there would be no reason for them to go sign a contract offer else where to put pressure on the Flames. I can see offer sheets being made but signed is a completely different story. Gaudreau can't be offer sheeted I believe anyways but same thinking applies.
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Old 06-28-2016, 01:39 PM   #334
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Yeah the one good thing about an offer sheet is that Monahan has to actually want to sign it. He knows it will screw the flames over if it's for 8 mill or whatever.
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Old 06-28-2016, 01:56 PM   #335
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As we all know, Treliving and the Flames management are notoriously tight-lipped about everything, so no news is almost assuredly good news. You might hear some rumblings right before an announcement is made, but don't expect anything before then.
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Old 06-28-2016, 02:03 PM   #336
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A key point in the offer sheet is the total dollars is divided over 5 years. So a 7 year offer of $6M per year for a total of $42M would actually be an offer of $8.4M per year, as per this:

"
In reality, the Offer Sheet value is determined by taking the total value (salary, and signing/reporting bonuses), and dividing it by either the number of seasons the offer is for or five - whichever is lower. This means that the offer sheet value is the same as the AAV if the offer is for five years or less, but for six and seven year offer sheets the offer sheet value will be significantly higher than the actual AAV. The value increases each year, based on the growth in the league's average salary.
For example, a seven year contract with a cap hit of $7 million would have an offer sheet value of $9.8 million ($49m total value divided by 5) - worth four first round picks instead of a first, second and third like a five year, $7m per year contract would be."
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Old 06-28-2016, 02:05 PM   #337
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A key point in the offer sheet is the total dollars is divided over 5 years. So a 7 year offer of $6M per year for a total of $42M would actually be an offer of $8.4M per year, as per this:

"
In reality, the Offer Sheet value is determined by taking the total value (salary, and signing/reporting bonuses), and dividing it by either the number of seasons the offer is for or five - whichever is lower. This means that the offer sheet value is the same as the AAV if the offer is for five years or less, but for six and seven year offer sheets the offer sheet value will be significantly higher than the actual AAV. The value increases each year, based on the growth in the league's average salary.
For example, a seven year contract with a cap hit of $7 million would have an offer sheet value of $9.8 million ($49m total value divided by 5) - worth four first round picks instead of a first, second and third like a five year, $7m per year contract would be."
Yeah that is the key.

You'd think that you have to be at at least 7 x $7.5M for the Flames to feel uncomfortable matching - and at that point the Flames are getting 4 first round picks.
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Old 06-28-2016, 02:31 PM   #338
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I was talking about Monahan, Gaudreau can't get offer sheeted. I still think there would be interest and we could get surprised, I get that there's difficulty for a lot of teams, but I don't think the odds are as minimal as you suggest. I could be wrong, though.
Ahh, whoops. My point remains unchanged though.

Don't forget that if paying Monahan $8-9 million would be a problem for us, it would be a problem for another team too. That's why we don't see these kinds of offer sheets. The closest comparable is our offer sheet to O'Reilly, which was viewed as by many even before the CBA/waiver issues were contemplated, and which was only for $6.5 million.
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Old 06-28-2016, 02:32 PM   #339
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I suppose one negative consequence of the huge haul of prospects the Flames acquired in the draft is that there could be a numbers game contracts-wise within the next couple of years.

I genuinely appreciate Treliving's ruthlessness in this situation. No messing about, no emotional aspect to this decision.
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Old 06-28-2016, 02:36 PM   #340
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Last year, Vladimir Tarasenko didn't sign a contract until July 8. From what I can tell, it looks like he could have been offer-sheeted, but wasn't.

Food for thought.
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