Rate the Flames 2016 NHL Draft

[codynw]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

^Odd rant.
They certainly picked some guys with size and jam to their game. But they didn't get tunnel vision on that element.

Tkachuk is small and plays soft.

[AhiChicken]

10/10.

Treliving is Azor Ahai. It is known.

[Ashasx]

Corey Pronman gave the Flames an A-.

He gave Edmonton an A- and Vancouver a B+.

[transplant99]

Apologies if this has been posted but it did make me chuckle...

Aaron Vickers @AAVickers

Burke on Tkachuk: "He’s a pain in the ass. We don’t have enough guys who are pains in the ass...I like guys who are pains in the ass."
12:54 PM - 25 Jun 2016

And a retort from his son who works in player safety for the league

Patrick Burke @BurkieNHL
This contradicts with my experience from age 14-22.

[MarkGio]

While I like how they picked bpa, regardless of size, we don't have enough right handed forwards.

But I prefer this philosophy over the Smith/Kanzig draft

[Itse]

Dillon Dube, Mitchell Mattson, Linus Lindström, Adam Fox.

Lots of fun names, plus a good Finnish prospect. I Approve This Draft.

[killer_carlson]

I like the big Finn. Really enjoyed his interview. I think that he and Linstrom are great picks.

Also loved that Dube didn't want to go because he'd get pi$$ed off watching people get picked that he thinks he is better than. Love that.

[Erratik]

Originally Posted by codynw

Tkachuk is small and plays soft.

Sarcasm? Must be, as Tkachuk is neither of those things.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Erratik

Sarcasm? Must be, as Tkachuk is neither of those things.

Yes it was sarcasm.

A few posts earlier NewEra had a rant about the Flames not selecting black and blue players despite preaching black and blue.

The sarcasm was based on the fact that most important and high profile player the Flames selected in this draft is as black and blue as you can get.

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by Itse

Dillon Dube, Mitchell Mattson, Linus Lindström, Adam Fox.

Lots of fun names, plus a good Finnish prospect. I Approve This Draft.

Stepan Falkovsky!!!

[Erratik]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Yes it was sarcasm.

A few posts earlier NewEra had a rant about the Flames not selecting black and blue players despite preaching black and blue.

The sarcasm was based on the fact that most important and high profile player the Flames selected in this draft is as black and blue as you can get.

Okay, cool, you never know online....

[Reggie Dunlop]

Flames drafting has MASSIVELY IMPROVED in the last half-decade so I'm throwing out a Thumbs Up on one hand and crossed fingers with the other.

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Corey Pronman gave the Flames an A-.

He gave Edmonton an A- and Vancouver a B+.

To further this comment:
Toronto and Winnipeg: A
Calgary, Edmonton and Arizona: A-

[Stay Golden]

The score writer gave the

Flames an A+
Edmonton A
Vancouver C

[Samonadreau]

Kind of surprised we didn't take a Right hand shot forward in the first 3 rounds but it looks as though they were drafting BPA on their list which nobody can argue.

Pumped about the draft.

Especially like Fox at 66. Guy could be awesome.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

^Odd rant.
They certainly picked some guys with size and jam to their game. But they didn't get tunnel vision on that element.

Wasn't a rant. Believe it or not, things that don't agree with your worldview are not rants. It was a measured approach of admitting there is a lot of assessment that needs to be done to evaluate this draft. Just because the Flames drafted Tkachuk does not automatically make this a successful draft. There are lots of questions to be asked to determine if this is a good draft for the team. You know, will any of the players drafted slot in above those picked in previous drafts? What are the odds of the players selected making it to the NHL? How does the Flames draft stack up against the teams in the division and conference? Did the other teams have better or worse drafts and did they improve their systems more than the Flames did theirs?

Outside of Tkachuk who exactly did they pick with "jam" that has a serious chance of making the NHL? I'm trying to be somewhat pragmatic about this and look at the players objectively. I'm not going to let the hype of the draft get in the way of looking at what the Flames just drafted and the odds of them being a player. So after Tkachuk this is what we selected.

54th pick - Tyler Parsons (G) - N/A.
56th pick - Dillon Dube (C) 5'11, 182 - bellow average size.
66th pick - Adam Fox (D) 5'10, 185 - tiny defenseman.
96th pick - Linus Lindstrom (C) 6'0, 165 - needs 30-40 pounds.
126th pick - Mitchell Mattson (C) 6'4, 201 - nice size.
156th pick - Eetu Tuuola (RW) 6'3, 227 - better size.
166th pick - Matthew Phillips (C) 5'7, 161 - tiny forward.
186th pick - Stepan Falkovsky (D) 6'7, 225 - giant size!

Like it or not size does matter in the NHL. And like it or not, when you are selected does matter when it comes to making it to the NHL. The later you are selected the smaller the odds of you making it to the NHL are. According to an article by Scott Cullen here are the odds of the latest picks making it to the NHL and playing 100 games, just based on historical success.

54th pick - 33% of playing 100 games.
56th pick - 29% of playing 100 games.
66th pick - 37.5% of playing 100 games.
96th pick - 24.5% of playing 100 games.
126th pick - 16% of playing 100 games.
156th pick - 15% of playing 100 games.
166th pick - 16% of playing 100 games.
186th pick - 10.3% of playing 100 games.

That is without taking into consideration the size of the player. I think we can agree that the odds of smaller players making it to the NHL are stacked against them. The Flames early picks were all on smaller players. The guys with NHL size are all later picks in rounds where they have a 16% chance, or less, of making it to the NHL and playing more than a season. Based on that you'll have to excuse my lack of excitement with this draft after the first round because of the way the size and success percentages stack up.

One of the things I like to look at is how the new picks stack up against our current prospects. Do they displace anyone on the depth chart, or do they filter in behind what we already have. In all honesty I still hold out hope for these guys, but I don't see anyone after Tkachuk that should be displacing anyone in the system at their positions. So I don't see this a huge success from that perspective.

When you consider organizational needs the team did achieve a couple goals. They grabbed a top end offensive talent. That is a big win. They also traded for a NHL starter. Another big win. So just from that end the Flames did well. Compared to their competition I think they did much better in this regard. They really checked off a couple big check boxes, so this is a big success. It would have been nice if they had as good a second day as they did a first day of the draft, but on the surface I think they did well.

As I said, still weighing this out and doing some comparison shopping. Not sure how good a draft this was. Day one was an A+. Day two? I'm not sure. It looks really below average to me. Still have to filter through each team and see how their draft stacked up as well, how it supported their philosophy, and if they got some good fit in the long run. Only then will a reasonable grade be assigned.

[Vinny01]

If you would have said the Flames would have got Elliot and Tkachuk there would have been no way I would have thought we would still have 8 additional picks. We were very fortunate to have Tkachuk fall to 6 and nab Elliot so cheap. A+

[shogged]

Originally Posted by New Era

Wasn't a rant.

followed by another rant lol

[Calgary4LIfe]

The only thing I can really rate as a win right now is the trade for Elliot. I can't really rate the draft itself, as I may love it and the prospects selected may bust, and vice versa.

What I do really like about the draft is that they brought in a lot of grit, a heck of a lot of skill, and lots of potential upside right through to the end of the draft, without having to pick guys with obvious character flaws.

I love the philosophy of the Flames drafting strategy - BPA available not organization need, high-IQ, high character, high compete level.

I don't see an obvious bust in the entire selection. I don't see a huge reach in any picks in terms of "Highly skilled, and small - tremendous upside, but has low IQ and is a bit of a ###### that is disliked by his teammates", or something like that.

I have read as much as possible on everyone - and most of them I had no clue existed until the Flames picked them today. What I got out of it is that organizationally, the Calgary Flames have added a tonne of talent, and some grit and size to go along with it (and the grit and size had talent themselves).

That is really encouraging, especially going back and seeing how much better the Flames have been drafting and developing. I see no issues with this draft right through the last round.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

While I like how they picked bpa, regardless of size, we don't have enough right handed forwards.

But I prefer this philosophy over the Smith/Kanzig draft

People are way too quick to write both of these prospects off.

Smith scored a lot in Junior, and also played on the PK. He lined up well with highly skilled junior players and contributed well on the score sheet. He will take time to develop more. He might bust, but this is way too early. He could very well become an efficient bottom 6 player that will also provide some depth scoring.

Do you know why they drafted Kanzig? I don't think many people realize it.

It wasn't because he was 6'6" and went undefeated as a fighter.

It was because in his first year, he sucked hard at playing defence. He took a HUGE step forward the next. Apparently, the kid is super intelligent, and is super dedicated (240lbs and Conroy remarked he looked like Schwarzenegger without his shirt on, and was blown away by how fit he was). He played top pairing in junior the rest of the way through on the Royals. He was also a really leader on that team with a good attitude. According to Todd Button, he has very high hockey IQ.

Can they both bust? Yep. But they haven't yet. They are very much in the long term plans of the Calgary Flames. They are also two of the more dedicated prospects for the Flames, and this can only help to rub off on other players in the system.

It has also been noted that players like Kanzig have to 'let up' quite a lot in Junior, or they will get penalized. I think with playing in the AHL, he will become more confident and less hesitant in using his size more, and becoming a more effective defencemen.

There is still a lot of time and development in both of those prospects to go before I am willing to rule them out as 'busts' or something to lament about yet.