Alberta Politics Thread

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

you seem to think there are no moderate WR supporters. There are. Lots of them. Lots who think the WR should stick to the economic issues.

And why should he give the slightest damn about his appeal to the left? Most of Alberta is fiscally conservative.

...and socially liberal. Much more so than even 10-15 years ago. And much more so than Jason Kenney.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

you seem to think there are no moderate WR supporters. There are. Lots of them. Lots who think the WR should stick to the economic issues.

And why should he give the slightest damn about his appeal to the left? Most of Alberta is fiscally conservative.

Cowboy89 had a great post on this earlier but issues do you view as strictly economic and strictly social? Even something like cutting taxes and reducing spending generally has a social side effect of reducing the amount of services for the poor and disadvantaged.

Regardless, if he's seeking the PC leadership he needs to at least attempt to appeal to the socially progressive wing of the party or you'll likely see a more moderate candidate take the leadership, or vote-splitting that allows for another Stelmach/Redford candidate to slide up the middle.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Pretty much my thoughts on the man.

Sounds good to me.

Push the Stelmach/Redford liberals out of the party, reject and isolate the poisonous extreme wing of the Wildrose that drove Smith out, merge the remainder.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Maybe my memory is worse than I thought, but didn't almost all the MPs from Alberta back the Wildrose in the 2012 election (obviously weren't going against Prentice in 2015)? So it does seem odd Kenney wants to lead the PCs and merge with the Wildrose as opposed to the opposite. Or it shows he knows the Wildrose name is kinda toxic and its better to bring Wildrose ideas into the PCs.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

Sounds good to me.

Push the Stelmach/Redford liberals out of the party, reject and isolate the poisonous extreme wing of the Wildrose that drove Smith out, merge the remainder.

Oh is that how it works? If you push these people out of the party, it's not like they just magically disappear. The progressive vote will probably begrudgingly and the extreme wing of the WRP will either try to grab a foothold in the newly merged party or they'll just start another political party. If you push the progressive wing out of the PC party, then you likely need the ultra-conservative wing of the WRP to win an election and vice-versa, especially if the NDP are smart (big if) and redesign the electoral boundaries to concentrate more voting power in the urban centres.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Maybe my memory is worse than I thought, but didn't almost all the MPs from Alberta back the Wildrose in the 2012 election (obviously weren't going against Prentice in 2015)? So it does seem odd Kenney wants to lead the PCs and merge with the Wildrose as opposed to the opposite. Or it shows he knows the Wildrose name is kinda toxic and its better to bring Wildrose ideas into the PCs.

He obviously has a better chance of getting the PC leadership because they currently have an opening in that position and an upcoming leadership vote. The WRP has a leader who is generally liked although it sounds like there might be some sort of uprising brewing and I'm not sure if that is directly related to Kenney. WRP has no upcoming leadership review scheduled.

As the leader of the PC he can easily approach the WRP for discussions on aligning the parties under one banner. Maybe they join forces in the future under a new banner and leave the PC and WRP monikers behind.

[CaptainCrunch]

The full court desperation press is on as the government originally budgeted $750,000 for advertising for the Carbon Tax and have now spent $4.4 million, which is more then the PC's spent on their 2013 and 2014 budget and their build Alberta Candidate

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politi...tops-5-million

On top of that they still can't or won't tell us what the actual costs to the economy are going to be as their dog probably ate their homework.

Grande Cache and other small towns are getting killed by NDP Policy

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/06..._10619428.html

[V]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Oh is that how it works? If you push these people out of the party, it's not like they just magically disappear. The progressive vote will probably begrudgingly and the extreme wing of the WRP will either try to grab a foothold in the newly merged party or they'll just start another political party. If you push the progressive wing out of the PC party, then you likely need the ultra-conservative wing of the WRP to win an election and vice-versa, especially if the NDP are smart (big if) and redesign the electoral boundaries to concentrate more voting power in the urban centres.

The PCs could run a rock as leader in the next election and they'll beat the NDP. The only question is whether the crazies in the WRP win the election over the PCs. Form some sort of coalition, even if it means kicking out some lefties from the PCs, and they're guaranteed to win. NDPs will be an absolute non-factor in the next election.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by V

The PCs could run a rock as leader in the next election and they'll beat the NDP. The only question is whether the crazies in the WRP win the election over the PCs. Form some sort of coalition, even if it means kicking out some lefties from the PCs, and they're guaranteed to win. NDPs will be an absolute non-factor in the next election.

I'm not so sure. Government and Union employees account for a lot of people. One would think that with their absolutely shocking incompetence even this wouldnt be enough, but one would have thought that a year ago as well.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by V

The PCs could run a rock as leader in the next election and they'll beat the NDP. The only question is whether the crazies in the WRP win the election over the PCs. Form some sort of coalition, even if it means kicking out some lefties from the PCs, and they're guaranteed to win. NDPs will be an absolute non-factor in the next election.

Didn't the most recent poll still have the NDP in second ahead of the WRP? If the economy shows signs of recovering, the NDP are certainly going to be a factor, especially if the PCs merge with the WRP. A merged WRP/PC party might ultimately win, but I don't think it's quite the slamdunk that some here think it is.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Locke

I'm not so sure. Government and Union employees account for a lot of people. One would think that with their absolutely shocking incompetence even this wouldnt be enough, but one would have thought that a year ago as well.

There's also the slight possibility that the provincial wing breaks from the federal party and moves more towards the centre, which would also be a bit of a game changer.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by rubecube

There's also the slight possibility that the provincial wing breaks from the federal party and moves more towards the centre, which would also be a bit of a game changer.

I wouldnt call it a 'slight' possibility.

Sorry, but that LEAP Manifesto is straight up batcrap crazy. I'd be distancing myself from those clothing weaving agrarian hippy morons as fast as possible lest they use my rotting corpse for compost on their beet farm/internment camps.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Locke

I wouldnt call it a 'slight' possibility.

Sorry, but that LEAP Manifesto is straight up batcrap crazy. I'd be distancing myself from those clothing weaving agrarian hippy morons as fast as possible lest they use my rotting corpse for compost on their beet farm/internment camps.

Right, and doing so would probably send a huge message to the electorate that the NDP are at least somewhat willing to step away from ideology when necessary to do so. The NDP's biggest problem since they've taken charge is that they've had some okay concepts when it comes to policy but then it all goes to pieces when they go to implement it (i.e. the carbon tax going into general revenue).

[Locke]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Right, and doing so would probably send a huge message to the electorate that the NDP are at least somewhat willing to step away from ideology when necessary to do so. The NDP's biggest problem since they've taken charge is that they've had some okay concepts when it comes to policy but then it all goes to pieces when they go to implement it (i.e. the carbon tax going into general revenue).

I totally agree, the Carbon tax and various other policies that shouldnt be implemented during an economic slowdown.

The NDP have been prioritizing ideology over practicality and doing it hamfistedly since day 1. If they can shed not only that image, but its subsequent practice they'd be far better off.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Locke

I totally agree, the Carbon tax and various other policies that shouldnt be implemented during an economic slowdown.

The NDP have been prioritizing ideology over practicality and doing it hamfistedly since day 1. If they can shed not only that image, but its subsequent practice they'd be far better off.

I actually think politically they were better off doing it now than holding off until a recovery. If they'd waited until a recovery to implement their ideas they run the risk of slowing the recovery and pissing off the electorate right before the election. This way they get it out of the way and hope the economy recovers enough over the next 2.5 years that voters end up forgetting their first year in charge.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Didn't the most recent poll still have the NDP in second ahead of the WRP? If the economy shows signs of recovering, the NDP are certainly going to be a factor, especially if the PCs merge with the WRP. A merged WRP/PC party might ultimately win, but I don't think it's quite the slamdunk that some here think it is.

the last poll I saw was the think HQ poll in April that had the Wildrose at 34%, the NDP at 27% and the PC's at 25%.

I would expect if the PC's put the leadership question to bed, and Kenney won the leadership that you would see the PC's game percentages from the Wildrose, and probably the more tepid NDP supporters.

I would expect though that with the passing of the carbon tax and the whole incompetent handling of the numbers from the internal government study, combined with property tax increases and a lot of stories of businesses failing in the media that the NDP have probably lost that 2% edge on the PC's at the very least, and the Wildrose might have gained some more percentage points in the absence of a PC party with a leader.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I actually think politically they were better off doing it now than holding off until a recovery. If they'd waited until a recovery to implement their ideas they run the risk of slowing the recovery and pissing off the electorate right before the election. This way they get it out of the way and hope the economy recovers enough over the next 2.5 years that voters end up forgetting their first year in charge.

Except they have implemented a policy that they either are lying about or don't know the effect of, but their previous numbers says will have a devastating effect on the economy.

so in a sense by implementing this carbon tax, they are probably pushing out any chance of even a minor recovery before we go to the polls.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by V

The PCs could run a rock as leader in the next election and they'll beat the NDP. The only question is whether the crazies in the WRP win the election over the PCs. Form some sort of coalition, even if it means kicking out some lefties from the PCs, and they're guaranteed to win. NDPs will be an absolute non-factor in the next election.

I wouldn't be so sure. The PCs moved to the left because that's where the votes are in today's Alberta. It isn't 1996 any more. If you don't win the soccer mom vote, you aren't getting elected. Sandra Jensen looks a lot more electable to me than Jason Kenney, Rick McIver, or any other doctrinaire conservative.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I actually think politically they were better off doing it now than holding off until a recovery. If they'd waited until a recovery to implement their ideas they run the risk of slowing the recovery and pissing off the electorate right before the election. This way they get it out of the way and hope the economy recovers enough over the next 2.5 years that voters end up forgetting their first year in charge.

I see what you're saying and this is where we disagree, you're thinking like a Poli-Sci guy who would pick this strategy if you had a vested interest in the part being re-elected, I'm thinking more like an economist and citizen being directly affected.

They did exactly what you said and why and it negatively affected their constituents, you know, the rubes that voted them in in the first place. The people that they're supposed to prioritize.

Its not supposed to be; 'whats best for the NDP' its supposed to be 'whats best for Albertans.'

They seem to have forgotten that. So in hopes (slim at that) of future re-election they shoehorned a ton of bad economic policy in at the worst possible time with no regard for Albertans just so they could placate their support, and, as you pointed out, hope it all blows over come election time.

So I see elected officials playing games when people's livelihoods are on the line and know that I'd vote for a Roomba with a knife taped to it coming to murder me in my sleep before I'd ever vote for this merry band of idiots.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

the last poll I saw was the think HQ poll in April that had the Wildrose at 34%, the NDP at 27% and the PC's at 25%.

I would expect if the PC's put the leadership question to bed, and Kenney won the leadership that you would see the PC's game percentages from the Wildrose, and probably the more tepid NDP supporters.

Again though, why would tepid NDP supporters move to support Kenney? He doesn't represent their interests at all. The protest vote could definitely move back that way, but I don't see the progressive vote going there. The only way I could see that happening is if a merger fails and the WRP looks like a legitimate threat to win the election a la what happened in 2012. The more likely outcomes if Kenney wins the leadership is that the progressives stay with the NDP or just don't vote at all. Obviously the latter would be just fine with the PCs.