[Rumour] Flames aggressively trying to move up. UPD: Treliving and Kekelainen meeting on floor

[theTrumanShow]

I am all for moving up to 3, but if the cost is much more than our 6, and 2 2nds, I would be a bit hesitant. We have some real gems in the 2nd round. I would be down with dealing Joki, Wotherspoon, Poirer in addition to the 2nds. Really want to keep those 2nds for a chance to get Steele or Benson.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This was the post...


but apparently no one actually reads other posts

It was this post I was referring to, but you are right discussion was not for 3rd, it was for 4th.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And 6th + Bouma + 2nd is massive overpayment to move to 4th.

.


The next 2 pages became a debate on Bouma being underappreciated, how we should not trade him with others disagreeing and stating he has negative value. The fact that it is passed as a massive overpayment for 4th, insinuates that Edmonton should be all over it, with Columbus even contemplating it for 3rd.

Even if discussing a move to 4th only, I would much much much rather have Dubois than Bouma + Nylander + a 2nd rounder that may be a 3rd or 4th liner 5 years from now, which still may not even happen. We have enough tweeners. We need quality top 6 guys.

Bouma is not even a semi-valuable trading piece on his current contract, which is what I was getting at. Let's stop pretending he will get us a better spot, especially on a down year. He will be a throw in in any deal at best.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by theTrumanShow

I am all for moving up to 3, but if the cost is much more than our 6, and 2 2nds, I would be a bit hesitant. We have some real gems in the 2nd round. I would be down with dealing Joki, Wotherspoon, Poirer in addition to the 2nds. Really want to keep those 2nds for a chance to get Steele or Benson.

Expected value of draft picks for this draft:



On a quick glance, paying two second rounders plus #6 to move up to fourth would be a big move backwards. Even moving up to #3 would be a smaller negative move.

[theTrumanShow]

I honestly think Columbus would ask for that at a minimum being that Calgary wouldn't be the only team looking to get it. I would expect them to ask for a decent roster player at centre to solidify that postion for them (Backlund?). While that would suck to lose Backlund considering his development last season, I would do it.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Expected value of draft picks for this draft:



On a quick glance, paying two second rounders plus #6 to move up to fourth would be a big move backwards. Even moving up to #3 would be a smaller negative move.

This doesn't take into account the differences in the players though. The drop from 3 to 4 is bigger than this chart would lead you to believe.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Bouma hasn't even peaked yet. He's due for a Nick Foligno-esque explosion year playing on a talented line.

That happened last year when he scored more goals than he had at any level of hockey beyond being 14 years old.

[Mr.Coffee]

What does the "value" on the X axis mean, or how is it accounted for? Expected value of picks in terms of what, subjective opinion?

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

What does the "value" on the X axis mean, or how is it accounted for? Expected value of picks in terms of what, subjective opinion?

It is based on previous trades in NHL history.

They subjectively call the 1st round pick as a 1000, then assume an exponential decline in pick value, the later the pick is.

You put in all your historic trade values and then smooth out the curve to get values for each pick.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

What does the "value" on the X axis mean, or how is it accounted for? Expected value of picks in terms of what, subjective opinion?

I'm not entirely certain, but my bet is it is based of the study and chart presented here: http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/...lue-pick-chart

[GoJetsGo]

So *if* we were going to make a move for the #3 pick, is it most likely it would happen the day of the draft? Any chance we wake up to some shock and awe tues - thurs?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by theTrumanShow

I honestly think Columbus would ask for that at a minimum being that Calgary wouldn't be the only team looking to get it. I would expect them to ask for a decent roster player at centre to solidify that postion for them (Backlund?). While that would suck to lose Backlund considering his development last season, I would do it.

They need a #1 centre and Backlund isn't that. With Dubinsky, Jenner and Wennberg they have 3 centres who are close to Backlund in ability.

Hard to know what CBJ would want. In some ways Jankowski might fit their needs better than Backlund but thats only if they like him.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

That happened last year when he scored more goals than he had at any level of hockey beyond being 14 years old.

And sadly we gave him a contract that others like Colborne, who deserve that type of money more, will use as a measuring stick.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

They need a #1 centre and Backlund isn't that. With Dubinsky, Jenner and Wennberg they have 3 centres who are close to Backlund in ability.

Hard to know what CBJ would want. In some ways Jankowski might fit their needs better than Backlund but thats only if they like him.

Jankowski is a wild card. Really hard to gauge what value he may have in a trade. I assume the Canucks would be interested but would it be worth trading up one spot to get maybe PLD?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

What does the "value" on the X axis mean, or how is it accounted for? Expected value of picks in terms of what, subjective opinion?

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main..._Schuckers.pdf

[sureLoss]

News Update

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
CBJ continues to listen to interest in #3 pick, however, sources say CBJ would like to attach a contract, (Hartnell) for cap space...1/2

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
...CBJ still has to extend Seth Jones which will be costly. Also approaching offer sheet time and Jones could be prime target.

[Vinny01]

That Lavoile(sp) insider on the FAN thinks the Jackets are really looking to move that pick. GM could be on the hot seat if they miss the playoffs speculating they want players to help now.

[dammage79]

My Puljujarvi hopes are rising. I keep telling myself it's not gonna happen, it's not gonna happen.

[GoJetsGo]

If we can find a way to make the cap hit work, adding Hartnell and Puljujarvi would be a massive boost to our top six next season and moving forward.

[jayswin]

I feel like this is actually going to happen now. I know it probably won't but the combination of the rumors of Calgary aggressively trying to move up and Columbus seriously considering moving down, mixed with Treliving's proven ability to make the big move and I have a feeling we might be in for some big news on draft day.

A GM is in a pressure situation to move an asset/pick you say? Enter Brad, this is his wheelhouse. While other GM's see these things come up and go into "what can we do to make this trade?", history and sources tell us that Brad has been working on the possibility and has been communicating with the GM for weeks if not months.

[sureLoss]

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
CBJ is not unlike Edmtn or Van. When at least considering trading a top 5 pick you have to get full return. Don't get it, don't make trade.