The New American Politics thread

[nfotiu]

I still maintain that Trump is not nearly as popular as many believe he is. He's only proven so far that he can get about 5% of the electorate to vote for him, and there just aren't enough people who haven't already voted for him, that would actually vote for him when it comes down to it.

I live in a bit of a bellwether state, and support for him is almost non-existant outside of the truly proud red neck crowd. He came to speak here last Friday, and could only fill a third of a 10,000 seat arena.

Primaries are proving to be a silly way to pick leaders in this social media age. Extremist movements can mobilize enough to basically John Scott the primaries since turnout is so low. Getting 50% of primary votes though translates into a drop in the bucket in a general election.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I still maintain that Trump is not nearly as popular as many believe he is. He's only proven so far that he can get about 5% of the electorate to vote for him, and there just aren't enough people who haven't already voted for him, that would actually vote for him when it comes down to it.

I live in a bit of a bellwether state, and support for him is almost non-existant outside of the truly proud red neck crowd. He came to speak here last Friday, and could only fill a third of a 10,000 seat arena.

Primaries are proving to be a silly way to pick leaders in this social media age. Extremist movements can mobilize enough to basically John Scott the primaries since turnout is so low. Getting 50% of primary votes though translates into a drop in the bucket in a general election.

Hope you're right.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I still maintain that Trump is not nearly as popular as many believe he is. He's only proven so far that he can get about 5% of the electorate to vote for him, and there just aren't enough people who haven't already voted for him, that would actually vote for him when it comes down to it.

I live in a bit of a bellwether state, and support for him is almost non-existant outside of the truly proud red neck crowd. He came to speak here last Friday, and could only fill a third of a 10,000 seat arena.

Primaries are proving to be a silly way to pick leaders in this social media age. Extremist movements can mobilize enough to basically John Scott the primaries since turnout is so low. Getting 50% of primary votes though translates into a drop in the bucket in a general election.

Where do the moderate republicans go? Do they hold their noses and vote Trump to spite Hillary, Vote democrat, stay home or consider a Gary Johnson?

[automaton 3]

I really thought that Trump's strategy would be to "turn down the crazy" once confirmed as presumptive candidate and no longer needed the free headlines. Turns out, maybe he is just unhinged.

The Republican convention could be interesting.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by GGG

Where do the moderate republicans go? Do they hold their noses and vote Trump to spite Hillary, Vote democrat, stay home or consider a Gary Johnson?

Well the likes of Romney and Bush have already said they will simply not vote for either Clinton or Trump. A centrist former GOP senator just endorsed Clinton. Some have said they are looking at Johnson. Other won't even call Trump the nominee. Some that have said they'll support him somehow have to have daily press conferences disavowing just about everything he says.

I think Johnson will pick up a good chunk of center republicans and republican leaning independents if he can show well. They'll know he can't win but they'll be willing to make a statement vote that the GOP best move back to center or forever be out of the whitehouse.

But it doesn't change the scary. IN the reecent poll that puts Clinton 12 up, this question was asked "Law enforcement agencies should increase surveillance of ALL american muslims EVEN IF IT CONFLICTS WITH CIVIL LIBERTIES"...27% agreed! I mean thank goodness 70% disagreed, but 27% is about 27% too much.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by ernie

Well the likes of Romney and Bush have already said they will simply not vote for either Clinton or Trump. A centrist former GOP senator just endorsed Clinton. Some have said they are looking at Johnson. Other won't even call Trump the nominee. Some that have said they'll support him somehow have to have daily press conferences disavowing just about everything he says.

I think Johnson will pick up a good chunk of center republicans and republican leaning independents if he can show well. They'll know he can't win but they'll be willing to make a statement vote that the GOP best move back to center or forever be out of the whitehouse.

But it doesn't change the scary. IN the reecent poll that puts Clinton 12 up, this question was asked "Law enforcement agencies should increase surveillance of ALL american muslims EVEN IF IT CONFLICTS WITH CIVIL LIBERTIES"...27% agreed! I mean thank goodness 70% disagreed, but 27% is about 27% too much.

15 people want to trade the 6th overall pick for Jordan Eberle. What can you do.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by ernie

Well the likes of Romney and Bush have already said they will simply not vote for either Clinton or Trump. A centrist former GOP senator just endorsed Clinton. Some have said they are looking at Johnson. Other won't even call Trump the nominee. Some that have said they'll support him somehow have to have daily press conferences disavowing just about everything he says.

I think Johnson will pick up a good chunk of center republicans and republican leaning independents if he can show well. They'll know he can't win but they'll be willing to make a statement vote that the GOP best move back to center or forever be out of the whitehouse.

I think you are about right, an even mix of all of the above.

I don't know that Trump is a shift to the right though. He's just a shift towards crazytown.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Doesn't Trump sort of have to have firm positions on things before we can say he's "shifting"? Saying different #### on different days isn't shifting, its pathological lying. As far as I can tell the two things he's firm on are Muslism and Mexicans, and given his history you could also presume he's pretty firm about making suing as easy as possible, increasing eminent domain to allow him to do whatever he wants in real estate, excessive use of the words tremendous and terrific, and allowing road kill to pass as hair styles. Otherwise he has no positions, just lies he spews to appease whatever audience he's pandering to.

Or, as I've suggested, he has dementia. Maybe he's just losing his mind on the most public of stages.

[HotHotHeat]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Any media outlet that hasn't had its credentials revoked by Herr Trump is not doing its ####ing job.

I don't know this is the case. He's getting negative press from all outlets now (literally, all of them), I think he tried to make an example out of one of them hoping they would back down.

Today has been really interesting to watch unfold. The unfavourables reaching 71% led the morning news coverage, Trump responded by calling out media bias (seems to be doing this almost daily), then announced he would be meeting with the NRA about limiting gun sales... Way to piss off your only supporters...

[Flash Walken]

So are we back to saying it's ok to call Trump a fascist?

[Senator Clay Davis]

The Democrats...are using a fillibuster? Chris Murphy from CT and several others are ready to actually use some GOP tactics to try and get some gun control. About time they showed some balls even if this probably won't work.

[ResAlien]

Regarding whether Republicans will vote Hillary or Trump the answer is Trump. At the end of the day they're spineless cowards who will bow to the partisan pressure of voting for your tribe.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Regarding whether Republicans will vote Hillary or Trump the answer is Trump. At the end of the day they're spineless cowards who will bow to the partisan pressure of voting for your tribe.

Some will, but a lot won't. Many don't see Trump as a republican. They just see him as a joke candidate.

[Dogbert]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Live tweeting from a Trump rally in Greensboro, NC. Good lord this is beyond the pale.

https://storify.com/case_face/a-trum...-here-is-palpa

I don't think this is going to end well, even if Trump loses. His supporters are paranoid whackjobs who are armed to the teeth, willing to follow him to the ends of the earth, and don't care what happens to anyone who doesn't look and act like them. How do you think they'll react when Trump and a couple of his media sycophants come out and say the election was stolen by the Democrats?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Dogbert

I don't think this is going to end well, even if Trump loses. His supporters are paranoid whackjobs who are armed to the teeth, willing to follow him to the ends of the earth, and don't care what happens to anyone who doesn't look and act like them. How do you think they'll react when Trump and a couple of his media sycophants come out and say the election was stolen by the Democrats?

Depends how badly he loses. Cause given his current trajectory + his obvious mental issues, Gary Johnson finishing ahead of him is not out of the realm of possibility. At that point they have nothing and will return to their anti-vaxxing crusade.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Dogbert

I don't think this is going to end well, even if Trump loses. His supporters are paranoid whackjobs who are armed to the teeth, willing to follow him to the ends of the earth, and don't care what happens to anyone who doesn't look and act like them. How do you think they'll react when Trump and a couple of his media sycophants come out and say the election was stolen by the Democrats?

What's the modern equivalent of a hanging CHAD?

[Dogbert]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Depends how badly he loses. Cause given his current trajectory + his obvious mental issues, Gary Johnson finishing ahead of him is not out of the realm of possibility. At that point they have nothing and will return to their anti-vaxxing crusade.

Even then, I can't see the U.S. getting out of 2016 without seeing a decent amount of election-related violence. These people are too unhinged to see their worldview take its lumps on a national level without responding somehow. They're going to blame the minorities and immigrants and gays, and it'll only take a couple of them deciding to take their pound of flesh in response to their man's downfall to make the rest of this year a very, very scary one.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Yeah but Trump supporters are really no more pissed off than the anti-Obama folks were in 2008. Remember Palin was stoking them pretty good and they all believed he was a secret Muslim who was bringing communism to the US. These people have been pissed off more or less since they day they were born, Trump losing won't change that much.

[HotHotHeat]

They'll forget it ever happened and get caught up in the latest season of Buckwild.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah but Trump supporters are really no more pissed off than the anti-Obama folks were in 2008. Remember Palin was stoking them pretty good and they all believed he was a secret Muslim who was bringing communism to the US. These people have been pissed off more or less since they day they were born, Trump losing won't change that much.

Yeah, and Gabby giffords was shot in the head point blank by a mentally disturbed anti-establishment political extremist before he killed 6 other people.