Friedman's 30 thoughts: Flames considering trade down from 6?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I don't think Brown gets passed vancouver

If they take him at 5 you can lololol @ Benning again. He's not that good. They should end up with Tkachuk or Dubois. But I don't think he's dumb enough for that; if they want the guy they'll probably trade down and take their chances.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

If they take him at 5 you can lololol @ Benning again. He's not that good. They should end up with Tkachuk or Dubois. But I don't think he's dumb enough for that; if they want the guy they'll probably trade down and take their chances.

What are you basing the "he's not that good" on? He's got a huge upside.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

In that scenario what exactly is Montreal gaining by moving up? Appears Brown will be there at #9 anyway.

I posted this mock draft in the draft thread but a couple quotes from it address your questions.

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016...draft.html?m=1

"5. Vancouver Canucks - Logan Brown
I know many expect them to go Pierre Luc Dubois here. And quite frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if they did. I've also mentioned Alex Nylander here (on twitter) because I think his skill set would be a great fit with some of the other young players that Vancouver has amassed. However, I actually think it will be Logan Brown who they go with. I could very well be wrong. But here me out. This is both a pick of need, and a Benning style selection. The teams that find success in the Pacific have a player like Brown leading the way, that big talented center who can dominate possession (Kopitar, Thornton, Getzlaf). By trading Jared McCann, and with the disappointing season from Cole Cassels, the need for a talented future center (besides Bo Horvat) couldn't be more obvious. Brown apparently impressed BIG time at the combine and with his size and potential, I don't think it's a reach at all to consider him in the top 5 or 6."

"9. Montreal Canadiens - Jakob Chychrun
I think Brown was definitely the guy the Canadiens were targeting, so they might be angry that they didn't snag him. In all honesty, at this point they might have to move up if they want him that badly."

I actually hadn't read his mock before my post but it seems he and I are thinking along similar lines.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Okay here's my thoughts on trading up/down. What's the appeal of dealing down? I don't really see it being very attractive unless we aren't moving far (1-2 spots) or the team trades us a good prospect or NHLer to move up. Do we really need another 2nd rounder to move back 3 spots? I don't think that deal is very attractive to us. I don't think Treliving was lying when he says there are 6 or 7 players he likes ahead of the rest this draft. Dealing down to #9 we aren't assured of getting any of the preferred players on our list.

I think its actually more likely that we'd deal up.

Deal Up Scenario #1. Massive multi-player, multi-pick blockbuster with CBJ where we take back one of their NMC players and ship them some goodies. Likelihood of happening? Low but its hard to rule Treliving out of anything after his Hamilton shenanigans.

Deal Up Scenario #2. Deal up with EDM. I think EDM likes a lot of players in the 4-8, 4-9 range. I think they could be comfortable moving back a couple spots for the right package. Might take more than a single 2nd to get it done. 2+4th? 2+3rd? I don't think they could turn down two 2nd rounders to move back 2 spots but I'm not sure Treliving would offer that either.

Deal Up Scenario #3. Deal up with VAN. Imagine EDM takes Tkachuk. VAN at #5 may really like both Dubois and Brown quite a bit. If they do why wouldn't they move back one spot for a 2nd rounder and still get one of the two guys they really like? It would help recoup the 2nd rounder they just dealt away in the Gudbranson deal. Of course this would be contingent on them liking Brown and Dubois fairly equally.

Anyways I can imagine a few scenarios in which we trade up. It's harder for me to imagine scenarios where we would deal down. If Burke wasn't lying and Tkachuk, Dubois, Juolevi are the grouping for us then I don't think we can deal down and manage to land any of them. If they actually like Sergachev, Chychrun, Nylander, or Jost a ton then maybe they can deal down a few spots. Can't imagine them drafting Keller in any scenario.

[The Fonz]

Like someone else said a while back... if we had a pick in the #9-12 range, we'd be dreaming up scenarios for how we could trade up to #6.

I'm not a fan of trading down, under any circumstance. Just pick the guy you like best at #6.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Like someone else said a while back... if we had a pick in the #9-12 range, we'd be dreaming up scenarios for how we could trade up to #6.

I'm not a fan of trading down, under any circumstance. Just pick the guy you like best at #6.

100% agree. You see lots of trading down in the 2nd+ rounds but almost never see it in the top 10. The reason for this is you can afford to take a gamble in the 2nd round. You can't afford to take a gamble in the top 10. Take BPA according to scouting at #6.

[dying4acup]

We have first shot at the best defenseman in the draft I think. It's a question on whether we want him or not..

I actually think if the Flames are trading down, it will happen at the moment the pick is being made.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Okay here's my thoughts on trading up/down. What's the appeal of dealing down? I don't really see it being very attractive unless we aren't moving far (1-2 spots) or the team trades us a good prospect or NHLer to move up. Do we really need another 2nd rounder to move back 3 spots? I don't think that deal is very attractive to us. I don't think Treliving was lying when he says there are 6 or 7 players he likes ahead of the rest this draft. Dealing down to #9 we aren't assured of getting any of the preferred players on our list.

I think its actually more likely that we'd deal up.

Deal Up Scenario #1. Massive multi-player, multi-pick blockbuster with CBJ where we take back one of their NMC players and ship them some goodies. Likelihood of happening? Low but its hard to rule Treliving out of anything after his Hamilton shenanigans.

Deal Up Scenario #2. Deal up with EDM. I think EDM likes a lot of players in the 4-8, 4-9 range. I think they could be comfortable moving back a couple spots for the right package. Might take more than a single 2nd to get it done. 2+4th? 2+3rd? I don't think they could turn down two 2nd rounders to move back 2 spots but I'm not sure Treliving would offer that either.

Deal Up Scenario #3. Deal up with VAN. Imagine EDM takes Tkachuk. VAN at #5 may really like both Dubois and Brown quite a bit. If they do why wouldn't they move back one spot for a 2nd rounder and still get one of the two guys they really like? It would help recoup the 2nd rounder they just dealt away in the Gudbranson deal. Of course this would be contingent on them liking Brown and Dubois fairly equally.

Anyways I can imagine a few scenarios in which we trade up. It's harder for me to imagine scenarios where we would deal down. If Burke wasn't lying and Tkachuk, Dubois, Juolevi are the grouping for us then I don't think we can deal down and manage to land any of them. If they actually like Sergachev, Chychrun, Nylander, or Jost a ton then maybe they can deal down a few spots. Can't imagine them drafting Keller in any scenario.

I'll try this again. My first attempt got deleted.

I don't think #2 will happen, but I do think we have a shot at getting the #4 pick. Edmonton won't keep it.


We can offer Edmonton a superior package than anyone else and they still wont trade it to us. So they trade it to a 3rd team, who then flips it to us for the package we offered Edmonton. The 3rd team does this because they get more than it cost them to acquire the pick in the first instance.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

What are you basing the "he's not that good" on? He's got a huge upside.

He does. I'm not saying he's a bad prospect. But he's a good pick at 10, not 5. He's simply not on a level with Tkachuk and Dubois, doesn't have their consistency, and a particularly good back half of the season has sort of inflated Brown's status. It would be a mistake to take him ahead of those guys, just as it was a mistake when Benning took Virtanen ahead of Ehlers and Nylander even though Virtanen was and is a good prospect too.

As for trading down and what the Flames (or Oil or Canucks for that matter) SHOULD be looking at, I've been saying for about 2 months that I think the most undervalued guy in the draft is Alex Debrincat, because of his size. He's been ranked consistently in the low 20's. I think that's a steal for that player. If you want to talk about upside, there it is. So if there's a deal that lets them keep a top 15 pick while adding one in the high 20's, they should look at it.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

What are you basing the "he's not that good" on? He's got a huge upside.

Could turn out into a brilliant pick or it could set the organization back. That's the issue I have with that player. Would be a good as a luxury pick for a team like the Habs that have some pieces in place and could be a good team next season if Price is full health. The Canucks however are pretty well building from a bare cupboard and these picks really need to turn into legit players. They already may have erred with Virtanen and another miss would keep them in the cellar for a long time.

[sureLoss]

Don't forget who is assistant GM for the Canucks.

A lot of the same arguments that Weisbrod made for the Flames picking Jankowski can be made for Brown and Brown has less of a risk and "less of a reach" because he is actually being drafted from a competitive hockey league.

[GranteedEV]

I don't care where we pick, as long as we come away with one of Puljujarvi, Dubois, Keller, or Sergachev. That's where, in my personal mind, the ledge is.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

We have first shot at the best defenseman in the draft I think.

Teams said the same thing when the Islanders took Griffin Reinhart or Florida took Erik Gudbranson. The best defenseman in the draft doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be any good. I think this draft is very much like the 2010 draft, and there isn't a defenseman in the group that I think projects to be anything better than what we have in the minors. Sergachev is the only defenseman with a different dynamic than what we have, and I don't see him being a physical force in the NHL. I'd be a lot more comfortable rolling the dice on a forward or six. The defensemen in this draft are kind of disappointing to be honest with you.

[DazzlinDino]

Doesn't Weisbrod have some sort of system for picking players which is why he tends to go off board? I remember reading somewhere that he has a different method for picking players he believes are going to be winners.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

Teams said the same thing when the Islanders took Griffin Reinhart or Florida took Erik Gudbranson. The best defenseman in the draft doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be any good. I think this draft is very much like the 2010 draft, and there isn't a defenseman in the group that I think projects to be anything better than what we have in the minors. Sergachev is the only defenseman with a different dynamic than what we have, and I don't see him being a physical force in the NHL. I'd be a lot more comfortable rolling the dice on a forward or six. The defensemen in this draft are kind of disappointing to be honest with you.

Wow, talk about a couple of cherry picked examples. And I'm not sure why you brought up Reinhart since Murray went ahead of him and the Islanders offered up all their draft picks that draft to try and move up to take Murray. TOR had Rielly #1 that year. You literally picked two of the most disappointing defensemen taken top 5 in the last 10 years. Makes for a weak argument IMO.

From Reinhart's draft year I think we'd be ecstatic to land a Ryan Murray, Morgan Rielly or Hampus Lindholm at #6 this year.

I don't see the defensemen in this draft being disappointing at all. Juolevi and Sergachev are very, very appealing and have higher upsides than anybody in our system. Chychrun could be as well depending on your opinion of him. And then there's Bean, McAvoy and Fabbro who are all highly regarded as well.

I think you underrate this defenseman draft class.

[Monahan For Mayor]

Trade up or not at all. I feel like Nylander is in a different tier than the the other prospects.

[Sylvanfan]

If Juolevi and Sergachev separate from the pack as the two better defence prospects it should make the Flames pick more attractive.