Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Azure]

Yeah its crazy how much inter province politics we have going on, and the US, who champion state rights all the time have figured out a much better way to make things like this work.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Azure

Interesting article as to how the US beat us at our own game.

http://business.financialpost.com/fi...rgy-superpower

Been saying this for a while. It's the only logical explanation. This absolutely makes my blood boil that so many Canadians got manipulated by the US government and a bunch of corporate oilmen to believe the environmental angle when it was really just a protectionist play. And we paid for it. I mean, I applaud the US for pulling it off, but man does it piss me off.

**** you BC and Quebec. You got played and we paid for it. Worst part is you have the nice sounding soapbox to stand on, so the smarmy look on your faces just makes it worse.

**** it. I'm going for Friday afternoon drinks.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by nik-

We don't need a Prime Minister that has the balls to stand up to the US, we need a Prime Minister that has the balls to stand up to the Provinces.

Build east and build west. Then they can determine if they want easy access to our oil or not.

Yup. Get the product to the coast, and things like Keystone stop being relevant. You just ship it down in tankers if you wish to sell to the southern US refineries.

All we are getting from Trudeau right now is mixed signals. He talks about the need for expanded access while he adds new layers of delays to the process.

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

But a Prime Minister that mirrored Obama's complaining about Canada's Dirty Oil. Who stands up and states:

The Oil fields in California are a toxic waste dump and pumping the atmosphere full of carbon, and they continue to pollute their oceans with their dirty offshore practices, so until the Americans' do their bit for climate change blah blah blah, we've decided to put a environmental tax on all American energy products coming into Canada.

I just got a Protectionist Boner. If we start sending all exports to the United States in British Columbia softwood lumber crates I'll be past the point of no return.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Azure

I think the Harper government shares a lot of the blame. 10 years in power, and absolutely no headway was made in terms of getting Alberta oil or natural gas to the Eastern provinces or even to the ocean.

Energy East should have been built a long time ago, and there should have been a strong push from the federal and provincial governments to get people onto natural gas across the country.

I know here in Manitoba it is extremely expensive to get a natural gas line run to a rural location. There is a lot of interest from rural people, but the only way it is viable is if 10-20 farms or businesses all go together to split up the cost. If the federal or provincial government would help to pay for the natural gas lines being run, a lot more people would sign up, and there would be a bigger market for natural gas WITHIN Canada.

Why stop there? Why not place blame on every federal government since oil and gas was discovered in the WCSB.

Give me a break.

Harper didn't do much to advance pipelines, obviously. Neither did Chrétien, Mulroney, Trudeau Sr. Etc etc etc.

[Azure]

The major US oil plays that threatened Canadian shipments down south were discovered while Harper was in power. Yes, all governments going back to the 50s are at fault, but it was more obvious the last 10 years what was going on. As soon as Keystone was delayed slightly, Energy East should have been built.

[Flamenspiel]

^^The fact is that Harper gave up on it, he appeared to be so focused on politics that he lost the energy for real governing.

That being said, there will be no excuses for Trudeau if it does not get the ball rolling. He has the political capital, he appears to be full of youthful energy, and as we witnessed in the HOC a couple of weeks ago the muscle to back it up. Basically this single issue will be his defining political moment much like the stand that PET made in 1970 with the separatists.

Can he bring Canada together?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by nik-

We don't need a Prime Minister that has the balls to stand up to the US, we need a Prime Minister that has the balls to stand up to the Provinces.

Build east and build west. Then they can determine if they want easy access to our oil or not.

That isn't going to happen, Wynne worked hard for him to get elected and get seats in Ontario, so he's going to stand firmly with her when she says no pipelines unless we pay a ton of money.

And he's already thrown up a lot more walls to getting approvals to pipelines, and even if they get approved he's given himself the power to kill them without explanation.

Trudeau grew up on the knee of his vindictive father who hated this province and designed programs to punish Alberta, he's going to finish his dads work while hiding behind native rights and the climate change.

[Faust]

Interesting article:

Canada's energy superpower status threatened as world shifts off fossil fuel, federal think-tank warns

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...zons-1.3601400

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Faust

Interesting article:

Canada's energy superpower status threatened as world shifts off fossil fuel, federal think-tank warns

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...zons-1.3601400

But the world isn't shifting from fossil fuels at all, both oil and natural gas are at all-time high demand. And while solar and wind get headlines for large % increases every year, they start from such a small value that they're barely a visible speck on world energy usage. And as countries like Germany have discovered, it takes a huge amount of resources just to get a modest amount of energy from solar and wind.

[Frequitude]

Developed nations might have the luxury of shifting towards renewables and lower per capita carbon consumption, but people are fooling themselves if they think the less developed nations are going to elevate their standard of living on anything other than the cheapest form of energy available (carbon). The ride will certainly end one day, but it won't be in our lifetime.

[GGG]

Double Meat!!!!

[Frequitude]

$50!!!!!

[IliketoPuck]

http://boereport.com/2016/06/07/a-pl...oming-problem/

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I think OECD countries have already peaked or will peak in the next 2 years. Globally, the peak very much depends on kind of infrastructure investment in China and India. Probably 2030.

The key indicator to watch for is EV sales, right now they're 0.6% of total sales in the U.S. The velocity of that increase will matter greatly, if it gets to 1.2% in the next 5 years the peak in oil consumption will soon follow.

McKinsey: Global oil demand will peak by 2030

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...ash-forecasts/

The latest downward revision to forecasts, from consulting firm McKinsey, could leave major new investments uneconomic if demand for energy fails to meet expectations.

“ This change is driven by three factors: first, overall GDP growth is structurally lower as the population ages; second, the global economy is shifting away from energy-intense industry towards services; and third, energy efficiency continues to improve significantly,” he said. “Peak oil demand could be reached around 2030. ”

[Fuzz]

https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil
Oil over $51! Woohoo...come on 60!

[oilyfan]

Bullish sign for oil demand... As Tinordi points out - economics at work.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-market-share

Global coal consumption dropped the most on record last year as the U.S. and other major economies started turning away from the most polluting fossil fuel, according to BP Plc’s annual review of energy trends.

“Oil grew exceptionally strong because when price falls, demand increases,” Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, said in London as the company presented its Statistical Review. “The big casualty last year was coal. We are seeing a shift in the fuel mix away from coal, driven a lot by environment issues.”
Coal use fell 1.8 percent in 2015, the largest decline in data going back to the mid-1960s, BP said. The fuel accounted for 29.2 percent of consumption, the lowest since 2005, while oil’s share rose for the first time since 1999.

[troutman]

Survey shows majority of Calgary business owners believe energy industry won't rebound

Business owners in Calgary starting to think of ways to adapt to new reality

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...gary-1.3633262

A new survey shows seven out of 10 local businesses believe the energy industry has undergone a fundamental shift and will not bounce back as it has in the past.

The annual "confidence" survey included about 700 local businesses in a cross-section of industries.

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by troutman

Survey shows majority of Calgary business owners believe energy industry won't rebound

Business owners in Calgary starting to think of ways to adapt to new reality

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...gary-1.3633262

A new survey shows seven out of 10 local businesses believe the energy industry has undergone a fundamental shift and will not bounce back as it has in the past.

The annual "confidence" survey included about 700 local businesses in a cross-section of industries.

The price of oil has already rebounded. If industry can't turn a profit unless prices are at historical highs, then they absolutely need to "adapt to the new reality".

[Azure]

At point price point do we start seeing a strong economic rebound?