2016 NHL Draft

[Erick Estrada]

Here's hoping Puljujarvi can only do one pull-up.

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by New Era

A little premature on a few of those names? Poirier, Jankowski and Klimchuk are still works in progress. Also, who gives a rip about players drafted 20+ years ago. .

That's why I indicated (so far), surely a few of those guys still have a chance...I am not labeling them busts yet.
I think using 20+ years of data is a lot more useful than a small sample size, regardless of who is in charge of drafting and scouting. It is a pretty fair representation of what kind of players are drafted in that range. I'm sure other teams have had a little more success, but my whole point was that picking in that range is a little more than a crap shoot.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

That's why I indicated (so far), surely a few of those guys still have a chance...I am not labeling them busts yet.
I think using 20+ years of data is a lot more useful than a small sample size, regardless of who is in charge of drafting and scouting. It is a pretty fair representation of what kind of players are drafted in that range.

I think you shouldn't yet evaluate anybody drafted in the previous 5 years. That's only natural as there is development time involved. So anyone from the 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015 drafts should not be included as their NHL success is TBD.

I also think you would have to contrast "that range" with "this range". Rico Fata, Brent Krahn, Daniel Tkaczuk, Oleg Saprykin, Eric Nystrom. How is "this range" not a crap shoot with the same logic?

[polak]

The only way you trade down from 6 to after 20 is if you're getting an impact player back because that is essentially what you're giving up.

No exceptions. If Treliving trades down to 20 or later for anything besides an impact player than we totally ####ed this season up in every way imaginable and we are completely leaving the success of this draft in lady luck's hands.

Why?

Because no player is outside of the top 20 "by accident". There's nothing a scout can see that can assure them that a consensus 20 to 30 ranked player is better than one ranked 6th. These aren't hidden gems we're talking about. They're heavily scouted 1st round NHL draft picks. There's 10 books on every guy projected to go in round 1. Your scout is not going to know something that everyone else doesn't.

God I hope they don't trade down.

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I think you shouldn't yet evaluate anybody drafted in the previous 5 years. That's only natural as there is development time involved. So anyone from the 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015 drafts should not be included as their NHL success is TBD.

I also think you would have to contrast "that range" with "this range". Rico Fata, Brent Krahn, Daniel Tkaczuk, Oleg Saprykin, Eric Nystrom. How is "this range" not a crap shoot with the same logic?

Because that second range you are talking about (6-10 I guess?) also includes Monahan, Stillman, and Phaneuf which you conveniently omitted.

Are you really trying to argue that picking between 21-30 is the same as 6-10??

[shutout]

Only trade down option I would consider is with Carolina

#6 for #13 & #21

Only if you had a very good chance that you ended up with

Fabbro or Bean & Gauthier

Is Fabbro and Gauthier better than Julolevi, Nylander, Brown, or Jost?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by shutout

Only trade down option I would consider is with Carolina

#6 for #13 & #21

Only if you had a very good chance that you ended up with

Fabbro or Bean & Gauthier

Is Fabbro and Gauthier better than Julolevi, Nylander, Brown, or Jost?

Can I get back to you in 5 years or so?

[cral12]

E-Mac highlights 2nd Round Risers in this latest article
- some potential 2nd round gems to be had (in the 2nd or beyond)

LINK HERE

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by cral12

E-Mac highlights 2nd Round Risers in this latest article
- some potential 2nd round gems to be had (in the 2nd or beyond)

LINK HERE

Who is Eldon MacDonald?

[AC]

Here is the final ISS top 30
https://twitter.com/BWildeCTV/status/737758605110317056

Here's the shortened list up to Juolevi given Burke's recent comments.
1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi
4. Tkachuk
5. Dubois
6. Nylander
7. Brown
8. Chychrun
9. Jost
10. Sergachev
11. Juolevi

[saXon]

Originally Posted by AC

Here is the final ISS top 30
https://twitter.com/BWildeCTV/status/737758605110317056

Here's the shortened list up to Juolevi given Burke's recent comments.
1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi
4. Tkachuk
5. Dubois
6. Nylander
7. Brown
8. Chychrun
9. Jost
10. Sergachev
11. Juolevi

Funny how Keller isn't on the list. He's been pretty popular around here

[AC]

Originally Posted by saXon

Funny how Keller isn't on the list. He's been pretty popular around here

He's 12th.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by AC

Here is the final ISS top 30
https://twitter.com/BWildeCTV/status/737758605110317056

Here's the shortened list up to Juolevi given Burke's recent comments.
1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi
4. Tkachuk
5. Dubois
6. Nylander
7. Brown
8. Chychrun
9. Jost
10. Sergachev
11. Juolevi

Just hope 1 club decides to snab a defenceman in the top 5 & Dubois is ours. I would be very happy with that.

The dream draft for me would be to trade up & grab Laine or Puljujarvi, but if we could somehow land Dubois at 6 we would be pretty lucky.

[Caged Great]

I wouldn't mind trading down if the top 5 are all gone.

Picking 9th or 10th would allow us to get another quality asset, while getting a similar calibre player.

[Krynn]

I remember reading that most of the Scouta had it kidd then potvin then Marty. But that was a long time ago lol .remember look a dingle berry from the sens .the man the myth the legend in his own mind Alexander daiag sorry for the spelling. No one thought he would be one of the biggest flops in the league .and one of my favorite sharks as a kid Pat Falloon .I still have 1 or 2 of his rookie cards. there been many more bust as us flames fans know 😭 all to well.

[Krynn]

We could take the last player in the draft and he might turn out to be the best player in the draft and one of the greatest player's the NHL has ever seen. We and the scouts and teams won't know how a player will develop until he makes it to the show and his career is almost over .it could happen most likely it won't but that's what makes the draft exciteing in my opinion.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

Just hope 1 club decides to snab a defenceman in the top 5 & Dubois is ours. I would be very happy with that.

The dream draft for me would be to trade up & grab Laine or Puljujarvi, but if we could somehow land Dubois at 6 we would be pretty lucky.

Hard to believe that's going to happen given none of these defensemen are regarded by most outlets as top 5 material in this draft. This list has the first defesnemen as low as 8 and while team lists will differ I'm willing to bet only a small handful of the 30 teams may have a defensemen in their top 5 and we have to hope it's one of the two teams ahead of the Flames and given the Canucks are almost surely going for a center (Dubois or Brown) if the Oilers retain the pick it's likely going to be Tkachuk to play with McDavid. I know a lot of people think the Oilers may trade the pick but really the prudent thing to do is trade one or two of the 6x6 contracts in Eberle, Hall, or RNH as they are going to be up tight against the cap when McDavid Draisaitl, Nurse, etc get their next contracts. Tkachuk buys them a top 6 winger that's pretty well ready to play on an entry level deal.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Hard to believe that's going to happen given none of these defensemen are regarded by most outlets as top 5 material in this draft. This list has the first defesnemen as low as 8 and while team lists will differ I'm willing to bet only a small handful of the 30 teams may have a defensemen in their top 5 and we have to hope it's one of the two teams ahead of the Flames and given the Canucks are almost surely going for a center (Dubois or Brown) if the Oilers retain the pick it's likely going to be Tkachuk to play with McDavid. I know a lot of people think the Oilers may trade the pick but really the prudent thing to do is trade one or two of the 6x6 contracts in Eberle, Hall, or RNH as they are going to be up tight against the cap when McDavid Draisaitl, Nurse, etc get their next contracts. Tkachuk buys them a top 6 winger that's pretty well ready to play on an entry level deal.

So business as usual then. Love it.

I was talking to an Oilers fan friend on Saturday, who is a smart hockey guy but has a blind spot with Edmonton. He's on the Tkachuk bandwagon. I pointed out that really the only way you can get a top flight defenseman is to draft one. He said "yeah but that doesn't help us now. We need help now."

I don't wonder if management thinks the same way. Everyone's impatient up there and a bunch of half-measures will result, when in my mind the best course of action is to take the D they like best (and dropping down 2-4 spots to do so) and developing him.

But that won't happen. And that's great.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

So business as usual then. Love it.

I was talking to an Oilers fan friend on Saturday, who is a smart hockey guy but has a blind spot with Edmonton. He's on the Tkachuk bandwagon. I pointed out that really the only way you can get a top flight defenseman is to draft one. He said "yeah but that doesn't help us now. We need help now."

I don't wonder if management thinks the same way. Everyone's impatient up there and a bunch of half-measures will result, when in my mind the best course of action is to take the D they like best (and dropping down 2-4 spots to do so) and developing him.

But that won't happen. And that's great.

Picking Tkachuk at 4 wouldn't be business as usual. It would be the right thing to do. This isn't one of those drafts where there's a defensemen or two in the top 5. There's no Hanifin, Ekblad, or Jones. This draft has three top defensemen that are Darnell Nurse caliber. You don't pick a guy like that at 4 over clearly better prospects just because your prospect cupboard at the position is bare. The Oilers can use the rest of the draft to draft defensemen if they want.

The Oilers need help today and one of these three defensemen won't be able to play top pairing for years which is why the Oilers will trade for one or two established defensemen using Eberle, RNH, or Hall as bait. Even Oilers media is resigned to the fact that one or more of their golden boys will be finally moved this offseason.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Picking Tkachuk at 4 wouldn't be business as usual. It would be the right thing to do. This isn't one of those drafts where there's a defensemen or two in the top 5. There's no Hanifin, Ekblad, or Jones. This draft has three top defensemen that are Darnell Nurse caliber. You don't pick a guy like that at 4 over clearly better prospects just because your prospect cupboard at the position is bare. The Oilers can use the rest of the draft to draft defensemen if they want.

The Oilers need help today and one of these three defensemen won't be able to play top pairing for years which is why the Oilers will trade for one or two established defensemen using Eberle, RNH, or Hall as bait. Even Oilers media is resigned to the fact that one or more of their golden boys will be finally moved this offseason.

But that's exactly my point. It IS business as usual. Every rebuilding team builds for the future and expects short-term failure, moderate success in the medium term, and long term success. The Oilers have been expecting short term success pretty much since they drafted RNH, if not Hall. Every year people are predicting playoffs -- running without ever walking.

And their draft and offseason decisions are 99% focused around fixing short term problems. They have no D prospects whatsoever, let alone those with top-pairing potential. And they never draft them because they're too far away to help, or not the sexy pick.

The Oilers need to take their medicine and understand that they need to draft for the long term, not to get a guy who can play on McDavid's wing in September.

But they won't.