ECF - (A2) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (M2) Pittsburgh Penguins - Penguins Win 4-3

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

This is a perfect example of cherry picking a stat to put a spin on something.

Sure, a career of .912.... but you know he was below .907 four times in the first 5 years of his career?

For the past 6? Below .915 (your mark of average) once.

.921 (this year)
.920
.915
.916
.913
.918

But .920 is really quite good, or no? Because that's the way he's been playing the last couple years.

Honestly, save the dramatic "blind spots! Incredible!" thing, you've clearly got a huge one. Just look at stats a little more closely if you'd like to get a better picture. Choosing career SV% as a judgement on current ability of performance is a poor choice.

Based on your logic, Jonas Hiller right now is better than Carey Price, Braden Holtby, and Ben Bishop. Guess we should have re-signed him, we had a Vezina contender!

Fleury is a great goalie in a meaningless game in the middle of January, but he is hot garbage in the playoffs. He had two cup runs where he held it together behind a powerhouse team almost a decade ago, and since then he has collapsed how many times? He completely blew 4 seasons in a row, behind that same powerhouse team, after the cup win. The guy just isn't a big game goalie. He's the anti-Quick.

[PepsiFree]

True, he struggled in the playoffs through the middle of his career with some exceptionally bad years (which killed his team's chances and his career playoff SV%) but last year was at a very good .927, and a respectable .915 before that.

If anything, there is a narrative here that Fleury was much worse than people thought but the most interesting part of it is that over the past few years he's become significantly better.

Now is probably the worst time to trot out a "Fleury is overrated" angle. Over the past few years he's actually living up to the rating he seemed to carry from those two great seasons that led to a Cup. He's been a good starter again for a few years now.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

True, he struggled in the playoffs through the middle of his career with some exceptionally bad years (which killed his team's chances and his career playoff SV%) but last year was at a very good .927, and a respectable .915 before that.

If anything, there is a narrative here that Fleury was much worse than people thought but the most interesting part of it is that over the past few years he's become significantly better.

Now is probably the worst time to trot out a "Fleury is overrated" angle. Over the past few years he's actually living up to the rating he seemed to carry from those two great seasons that led to a Cup. He's been a good starter again for a few years now.

Last year he had good numbers for sure, but he lost the series and goaltending battle to Lundqvist 4 games to 1.

The year before, when he was .915, he was looking spectacular and had the Pens up 3-1 against the Rangers. Then he completely self destructed and the Rangers came back and won the series in 7.

The Flames need a goalie whose play elevates in the playoffs, not the other way around. The Pens can keep MAF until he retires as far as I'm concerned.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

MAF has a proven history of blowing it in the playoffs. If you've watched those series over the years then you've seen it. I just don't know how you can trust the guy when he melts down occasionally.

I'd steer clear of him, he isn't a long term solution. I guess you could argue he could just be a placeholder for Gillies. But he's pretty expensive and wouldn't come free. Rather have Andersson if we're trading for someone. Rather have Reimer if we're getting someone for free.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Quick is actually a below average goaltender.

That's not true. Now keep in mind this next chart is from 2005 to 2015 (DOES NOT INCLUDE 2015-16) but it shows pretty fine that Jonathan Quick had been an above average goalie over that time period. An average goalie would have an AdjGSAA/60 of zero:



Considering he's coming off a very strong year (better than his not-very-good 2014-15 season) I don't know how you can say Quick is actually below average.

[MikeN]

Mind blowing that they blew that game last night, even worse that Letang was -4.
Killed me to watch them blow it like that, then to watch GoT. ####ty night for sure.

[Vulcan]

It makes me laugh that a team that has made the playoffs once in the last seven years doesn't want a good goalie because his playoff record is spotty. I'd be fine with getting MAF along with a few other options.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Considering he's coming off a very strong year (better than his not-very-good 2014-15 season) I don't know how you can say Quick is actually below average.

It's a fair way to look at it, but I'd basically just argue that any goalie who has played behind the LA Kings in the past decade or so has had a better even strength save percentage than Quick. Quick's ESSV% is .924. Martin Jones was .934. Erik Ersberg was .927. Scrivens was a .932. Bernier is the lone exception, being .915. One thing save percentage doesn't take advantage of is team effects, and while it's not totally clear the extent to which that impacts goalies (nothing's really clear about goalies, in fairness) it seems like just about anyone can backstop LA and let in goals at a lesser rate than Quick. Like a lot of overrated players, his reputation is built largely on a completely ridiculous playoff run, but over the long haul, he doesn't get the same results.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

It makes me laugh that a team that has made the playoffs once in the last seven years doesn't want a good goalie because his playoff record is spotty. I'd be fine with getting MAF along with a few other options.

Agreed. MAF has some question marks in the post season, no question.

However, Pittsburgh might be looking to unload him for those very reasons, along with Murray's sudden ascendance into looking like a true game changing goalie...

if you can get him for a reasonable price, the Flames should consider it as a bridging move to someone like Gilles/MacDonald or Ortio (if he can continue to improve)

great players are virtually untouchable; so calgary is going to be looking at guys with some warts... just a question of how many warts you want to pay for.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

It makes me laugh that a team that has made the playoffs once in the last seven years doesn't want a good goalie because his playoff record is spotty. I'd be fine with getting MAF along with a few other options.

It makes me laugh that your end goal is just making the playoffs. I expect more.

[GirlySports]

who has more warts? Fleury or Ward?

[Karl]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

who has more warts? Fleury or Ward?

Or Reimer? I'd easily prefer Reimer as a goalie over Fleury or Ward.

[CalgaryFan1988]

MA Fleury is clutch. I remember he scored a pivotal goal at the world juniors.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Crazy that Fleury lost in OT off a guy's elbow, a deflection that pretty much no goalie can be reasonably expected to stop, and the discussion is about how clutch he can be.

TB could not replicate that goal if they tried

Whatever goalie is going to save that every time, the Flames should sign

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

It makes me laugh that a team that has made the playoffs once in the last seven years doesn't want a good goalie because his playoff record is spotty. I'd be fine with getting MAF along with a few other options.

While I don't entirely dissagree with you, playoff record, on a team as stacked as the Pens, is being used as a proxy for how he performs under pressure.

The pressure in Calgary, would come long before the playoffs start given where this team is in it's development cycle. If he can't deliver under pressure, I think what his detractors are trying to articulate is that he won't even get us to the playoffs then.

[V]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Quick's ESSV% is .924. Martin Jones was .934. Erik Ersberg was .927. Scrivens was a .932. Bernier is the lone exception, being .915.

Finally someone uses the proper metric of ESSV. Seriously people, if you're going to talk stats, at least use a stat that means something. ESSV is significantly better than SV%.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Well, SHSV% means something too; being a good PK goalie is a skill - though it's arguably (intuitively) tied to the PK strategy and how passive it is.

[442scotty]

Pens are probably done now... especially if they put Fleury back in...

[united]

Murray is starting, per basically every reporter on Twitter.

[Toonage]

Fleury controls his destination if they approach him for a trade does he not? Calgary likely isn't on any list he'd provide.

On topic: Pens win this one and force game 7.