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Old 05-22-2016, 02:16 AM   #1
DeluxeMoustache
 
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Default Single game save percentage

Quick note. Reimer saves one of seven shots. Unstoppable. Single game sv%=.857

He played fine and let in one unstoppable shot.

So many times people refer to sv% for a single game. My ask is to please stop the reference to single game sv% as meaningful.

I will supplement with a game where Kipper let in two goals on 18 shots where both were bad pinches by the D that led to unstoppable 2 on 1s

Save percentage over the course of seasons can be looked at as more meaningful (that is, more statistically significant) but in a single game is much less so.

This is one stat that when people quote on a single game basis disappoints me because it really is frankly not significant

That is all

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Old 05-22-2016, 03:52 AM   #2
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Stats are only ever meaningful with context. Single game sv% is no different.
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Old 05-22-2016, 07:17 AM   #3
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We used to see the Panthers goalies for the longest time having stellar save %. A big part of that was the high number of shots they faced.

No stat can be taken individually. There are various variables that are considered to understand the true context. When looking at save percent, it would be shots against, quality of shots, strength of defense or opposition.
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Old 05-22-2016, 08:36 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
Quick note. Reimer saves one of seven shots. Unstoppable. Single game sv%=.857

He played fine and let in one unstoppable shot.

So many times people refer to sv% for a single game. My ask is to please stop the reference to single game sv% as meaningful.

I will supplement with a game where Kipper let in two goals on 18 shots where both were bad pinches by the D that led to unstoppable 2 on 1s

Save percentage over the course of seasons can be looked at as more meaningful (that is, more statistically significant) but in a single game is much less so.

This is one stat that when people quote on a single game basis disappoints me because it really is frankly not significant

That is all

there were some nights that kipper was just amazing....

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Old 05-22-2016, 03:58 PM   #5
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there were some nights that kipper was just amazing....

Still let in 2 goals. Tsk tsk
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Old 05-22-2016, 08:53 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
Quick note. Reimer saves one of seven shots. Unstoppable. Single game sv%=.857

He played fine and let in one unstoppable shot.

So many times people refer to sv% for a single game. My ask is to please stop the reference to single game sv% as meaningful.

I will supplement with a game where Kipper let in two goals on 18 shots where both were bad pinches by the D that led to unstoppable 2 on 1s

Save percentage over the course of seasons can be looked at as more meaningful (that is, more statistically significant) but in a single game is much less so.

This is one stat that when people quote on a single game basis disappoints me because it really is frankly not significant

That is all
Does anyone do this? I mean people say a goalie sucks after a given game, but I don't think a single game save percentage has much to do with it.
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Old 05-22-2016, 08:59 PM   #7
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I agree that you shouldn't carry much weight on the save percentage for only one game. It's a stat that should be taken into context.

That being said, I think save percentage is one of the most meaningful/valuable "simple" stats available. If you want a quick glance at how good a goaltender is, save percentage is a good place to start.
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Old 05-22-2016, 10:27 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug View Post


Does anyone do this? I mean people say a goalie sucks after a given game, but I don't think a single game save percentage has much to do with it.
People do it all the time. A goalie gets hung out to dry but all you hear/read is "HE LET IN THREE GOALS ON ELEVEN SHOTS" even though those shots might be backdoor 5-on-3 taps that also deflected off a skate during a rush.

In general, we have enough analytic data available these days (rush attempts, high/medium/low danger chances, being able to separate 5-on-5 from other forms of play, rebounds allowed, missed shots directed toward the net) that raw save percentage is pretty lazy. That's not limited to single game save percentage, it extends to bigger samples. Goaltending does not exist in a vacuum. Not saying I'm above using SV%, just saying it's lazy.
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Old 05-22-2016, 10:44 PM   #9
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Hf has a math forum that's pretty good for some interesting stats. I once seen a report that looked a consistency of goalies. So basically it measured which goalies kept more or less the same save percentage night in and night out. If I recall, Lundquist was one the more consistent goalies in the league at the time of the report
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Old 05-22-2016, 10:51 PM   #10
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People do it all the time. A goalie gets hung out to dry but all you hear/read is "HE LET IN THREE GOALS ON ELEVEN SHOTS" even though those shots might be backdoor 5-on-3 taps that also deflected off a skate during a rush.

In general, we have enough analytic data available these days (rush attempts, high/medium/low danger chances, being able to separate 5-on-5 from other forms of play, rebounds allowed, missed shots directed toward the net) that raw save percentage is pretty lazy. That's not limited to single game save percentage, it extends to bigger samples. Goaltending does not exist in a vacuum. Not saying I'm above using SV%, just saying it's lazy.
Data will never paint the whole picture. Last night Jones made one of the best saves of the season, but couldn't save the third attempt. So the unbelievable save he made carried the same weight as any run of the mill stop. Similar, when Mason gave up the weakest goal in history, that goal against didn't carry anymore weight that a beauty play in which Mason had no chance on.
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Old 05-22-2016, 11:39 PM   #11
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Hextally ftw!

Seriously though save percentage, once your sample's big enough, is actually pretty good. Better to look at even strength save percentage and shorthanded save percentage separately, though.
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:01 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
People do it all the time. A goalie gets hung out to dry but all you hear/read is "HE LET IN THREE GOALS ON ELEVEN SHOTS" even though those shots might be backdoor 5-on-3 taps that also deflected off a skate during a rush.

In general, we have enough analytic data available these days (rush attempts, high/medium/low danger chances, being able to separate 5-on-5 from other forms of play, rebounds allowed, missed shots directed toward the net) that raw save percentage is pretty lazy. That's not limited to single game save percentage, it extends to bigger samples. Goaltending does not exist in a vacuum. Not saying I'm above using SV%, just saying it's lazy.
I stand by my assertion that people don't take a single game save percentage and extrapolate anything meaningful. That is what I thought the OP was saying.
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O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
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Old 05-23-2016, 11:06 AM   #13
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I agree with OP, I hate it when people use a stat out of a meaningful context. My personal favourite is applying PDO to an individual player. I don't find PDO that meaningful in general but how do you apply a stat that combines shooting percentage AND save percentage to a single skater???
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Old 05-23-2016, 12:36 PM   #14
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I will supplement with a game where Kipper let in two goals on 18 shots where both were bad pinches by the D that led to unstoppable 2 on 1s
I see that people still haven't caught on to the issue that many of the shots that were "unstoppable" for Kiprusoff were only "unstoppable" due to Kiprusoff's positioning, which Kiprusoff is responsible for and thus rightly contribute to his save percentage.

You're effectively arguing that because a stat has flaws it has no value. For the most part, a goalie with a higher single-game SV% has played better than one with a lower SV%. It's one of the biggest determinants of the outcome of the game, so it actually remains quite important despite not accounting for shot quality.
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Old 05-23-2016, 01:43 PM   #15
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I agree with OP, I hate it when people use a stat out of a meaningful context. My personal favourite is applying PDO to an individual player. I don't find PDO that meaningful in general but how do you apply a stat that combines shooting percentage AND save percentage to a single skater???

Worse yet is entirely useless stats. "That line was a combined +9!" Well yeah, they're all +3 because they were on the ice together. Combined stats for guys who always play together are silly and just exaggerate what's happening in the game.
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Old 05-23-2016, 05:37 PM   #16
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Who would ever give any sort of credibility to save percentage of one game.

It is like saying any player that gets two pints in game one of the season is projected to score 164 thru the whole season
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Old 05-23-2016, 07:34 PM   #17
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We used to see the Panthers goalies for the longest time having stellar save %. A big part of that was the high number of shots they faced.
I think much of what we used to see was really really good, and highly underrated goalies in Florida, like Roberto Luongo and Craig Anderson, who then went on to post similarly excellent numbers for other teams.
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Old 05-24-2016, 09:49 AM   #18
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Who would ever give any sort of credibility to save percentage of one game.

It is like saying any player that gets two pints in game one of the season is projected to score 164 thru the whole season
I think it's extremely feasible that, if a player drank two pints in game one, they could go on to drink 164 pints by the end of the season.
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