Scenario: Big 5 are gone who WILL they take?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It also gives you cap flexibility. If the Flames are in a cap crunch in four years, one of their high salaried d-men could be moved if there's a replacement ready to step up.

Ah, so the Flames should draft for an imaginary scenario instead of drafting for need? Don't look at the gaping holes in the team or in the system, instead dream up scenarios where something could "possibly" happen and draft players to address that unlikelihood! Would that make us any different from the Oilers and how they draft? Or any different from just being the smartest guy in the room?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Here's a comment about Brown from an NHL scout in THN's draft preview:

"He's got size, but he might be the weakest guy in all of the draft... I don't think he's bought in yet."



That's a huge red flag for me. Chychrun strikes me as the classic 'has all the tools, but we're waiting for him to put them all together" player. And those scare me.

Here are some more comments from scouts in the THN draft preview:

Q: What's an unteachable trait that can't be coached into a kid?

Botterill: Hockey sense, just the ability to read the game. It's something players find at a young age.

Bernhardt: Your hockey sense and feel for the game are inherent things you're not going to change in a hockey player.

Macdonald: A defenseman with questionable hockey sense has a hard time competing at the NHL level.

Weird thing about Chychrun is that he's a super mature guy. He was given an A halfway through his rookie year at 16 which is super rare. When you hear him talk he's like an adult, not an 18 year old kid.

[mdubz]

Originally Posted by New Era

@ Button comparisons

Nylander reminds me of Alex Semin. Lots of skill, but not around when the play matters. I'd stay away from him. He'll probably have a couple of big years, but won't see a long shelf life. He'll be as good as his linemates. Chychrun reminds me of Bryan Fogarty. Million dollar tools, but a five cent toolbox. Of all the top guys in this draft that have bust potential I would call Chychrun the guy to bust hardest. Juolevi reminds me more of Lubo Visnovsky. Probably be a pretty good player, but I don't see anything more than some of the players we already have in the system. This really is turning into a draft where there are three great prospects and then a whole bunch that could be good, but come with warts you have to accept and hope they work past.

You've scouted these players? Or are your judgements and comparisons based on youtube clips?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by mdubz

You've scouted these players? Or are your judgements and comparisons based on youtube clips?

Game action as much as possible and some YouTube stuff here and there. Thankfully all of these guys are OHL based and coverage is good.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

Ah, so the Flames should draft for an imaginary scenario instead of drafting for need? Don't look at the gaping holes in the team or in the system, instead dream up scenarios where something could "possibly" happen and draft players to address that unlikelihood! Would that make us any different from the Oilers and how they draft? Or any different from just being the smartest guy in the room?

So drafting BPA is the Oilers way now?

There's a difference between having a surplus of one-dimensional forwards and having a surplus of high-end young defencemen. The Predators were able to turn their surplus into a #1 centre. The Ducks are likely to move one of their young d for help up front, and probably open up cap space because Theodore can step right in and be a player on an entry-level contract.

Having too many quality, young d is about the best problem to have in the NHL.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

So drafting BPA is the Oilers way now?

There's a difference between having a surplus of one-dimensional forwards and having a surplus of high-end young defencemen. The Predators were able to turn their surplus into a #1 centre. The Ducks are likely to move one of their young d for help up front, and probably open up cap space because Theodore can step right in and be a player on an entry-level contract.

Having too many quality, young d is about the best problem to have in the NHL.

Whose list are you going off of? Because I have it hard to believe that any of the defenders from this draft are high on the Flames list. They may be the best in class, but they just aren't that good. Being the best in your class doesn't necessarily make you a great prospect at your position. They have some glaring weaknesses, and from a Flames perspective do not address any of the defense related issues any of the Flames management have been talking about, other than playing the position.

Lets be realistic here. There is no Seth Jones available in this draft. There are several Josh Morrissey level defensemen in this draft. A good prospect, but not a top end talent. These are guys that are supplemental players, not guys that are going to be swapped for a top line center.

I don't mind having too many quality defensemen, but only if we have some actual depth at almost every other position. Right now we desperately need RW and size up front. Until we have that I think it is a horrible strategy to think you can stockpile players at a position and then somehow trade your way to success.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

Whose list are you going off of? Because I have it hard to believe that any of the defenders from this draft are high on the Flames list. They may be the best in class, but they just aren't that good. Being the best in your class doesn't necessarily make you a great prospect at your position. They have some glaring weaknesses, and from a Flames perspective do not address any of the defense related issues any of the Flames management have been talking about, other than playing the position.

Lets be realistic here. There is no Seth Jones available in this draft. There are several Josh Morrissey level defensemen in this draft. A good prospect, but not a top end talent. These are guys that are supplemental players, not guys that are going to be swapped for a top line center.

I think you're still underselling them. The top end d-men this draft are more Hanifin, Werenski, Provorov types than they are Morrisey types.

If they were as bad as you are suggesting they wouldn't be ranked top 10 this year in a draft with a strong top end. But Bob Mackenzie has 3 of them in his top 10 rankings ahead of guys like Keller, Brown, Jost, McLeod who are all very attractive prospects. THN has 3 of them in their top 10 this year ahead of the same players.

What you're suggesting just doesn't really jive with what the GMs and scouts are saying about the d-men this draft class.

[djsFlames]

Unless the d-man is head and shoulder above the d-men already knocking/soon to be knocking on the door in the organization already (Andersson, Kylington, Wotherspoon, Kulak, Culkin, Hickey, Nakladal..), then just go with the forward.

Would gladly welcome another highly skilled winger in Nylander.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think you're still underselling them. The top end d-men this draft are more Hanifin, Werenski, Provorov types than they are Morrisey types.

If they were as bad as you are suggesting they wouldn't be ranked top 10 this year in a draft with a strong top end. But Bob Mackenzie has 3 of them in his top 10 rankings ahead of guys like Keller, Brown, Jost, McLeod who are all very attractive prospects. THN has 3 of them in their top 10 this year ahead of the same players.

What you're suggesting just doesn't really jive with what the GMs and scouts are saying about the d-men this draft class.

I think you are overselling them, and grossly overselling them. I think you are also mischaracterizing this draft. There are three top end talents. THREE. Then there is a mess. There is no consensus on this draft at all except to say that the top three are going to be really good players. The players from 4-20 have been jumping all over the place in rankings, and that is before teams even have a chance to filter out players by the combine and by organizational needs. no one can decide which of these guys are the best defenseman in the draft, not because they are all so good, but because no one guy has stepped up to show he is the best in show. These are guys will major holes in their games and need plenty of development time. My God man, you're using "Dim" Jim Benning to support your case. That is all that needs to be said right there. If Benning thinks these guys are good, stay far away.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

I think you are overselling them, and grossly overselling them. I think you are also mischaracterizing this draft. There are three top end talents. THREE. Then there is a mess. There is no consensus on this draft at all except to say that the top three are going to be really good players. The players from 4-20 have been jumping all over the place in rankings, and that is before teams even have a chance to filter out players by the combine and by organizational needs. no one can decide which of these guys are the best defenseman in the draft, not because they are all so good, but because no one guy has stepped up to show he is the best in show. These are guys will major holes in their games and need plenty of development time. My God man, you're using "Dim" Jim Benning to support your case. That is all that needs to be said right there. If Benning thinks these guys are good, stay far away.

Just because the rankings are all over the place doesn't mean the upside of these players isn't large. There are 3 potential franchise players at the top end but I believe guys like Tkachuk, Dubois and a couple of the defensemen would have been competing for 1st overall in drafts like 2011 and 2012.

I think you're massively underrating the potential of the players in the 4-20 range.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Just because the rankings are all over the place doesn't mean the upside of these players isn't large. There are 3 potential franchise players at the top end but I believe guys like Tkachuk, Dubois and a couple of the defensemen would have been competing for 1st overall in drafts like 2010 and 2012.

I think you're massively underrating the potential of the players in the 4-20 range.

And you just made my point, in spades. There are THREE franchise players in this draft? And then four other players that would have gone number one in 2010 or 2012? No, you aren't overselling this draft at all.

Has it ever dawned on you that maybe the top three, that are so heads and shoulders ahead of the rest of thof class aren't franchise player level, and are just going to be good players? Has it ever dawned on you that maybe this draft is going to be just like 2010 or 2012, and there isn't going to be a number of top end talents, and only a bunch of 2nd or 3rd line talent? Put the draft into the context of the top end guys being overblown, then what does it do to everyone else?

Frankly, if any of the top three turn into a Taylor Hall or a Tyler Seguin they will be lucky. To say they are certain to be Ovechkin+ is overselling the draft and to gross extremes.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I mistyped 2010 when I meant 2011.

We'll see I guess. I think you're underselling it, you think I'm overselling it. Time will tell. Maybe franchise player was the wrong word to use. Superstar? How's that one. I think there's 3 superstars at the top end of this draft and there will be several star players taken in the 4-20 range. I don't think anybody should be disappointed about the quality of player available at #6 this year. IMO the player at #6 this year is equal to a top 3-5 pick in a weak year.

[dammage79]

That's the rub though, outside the top 3 I think you can call this a weaker draft year.

[Bingo]

is it just me or does there seem to be a need to be wanky in posts these days?

chill out guys it's the draft. Scouts can't agree on it, so don't get your gitch in a knot if people don't agree with you.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

That's the rub though, outside the top 3 I think you can call this a weaker draft year.

Yeah its interesting how we all can view the draft so differently. To me the top end of this draft is more like 2013 except the depth really falls off around 20, whereas in 2013 the depth was strong into the 2nd round.

2013 - Elite top grouping of MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Jones
2016 - Elite top grouping of Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi

2013 - Strong secondary tier with Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse, Ristolainen, Horvat, Domi, Nichushkin, Domi, Wennberg, Morrisey, Mantha, Burakovsky, Shinkaruk, etc
2016 - Strong secondary tier with Tkachuk, Dubois, Juolevi, Sergachev, Chychrun, Nylander, McLeod, Jost, Keller, Brown, Gauthier, Jones, Bean, McAvoy, Fabbro, Bellows, Kunin

I think at #6 we have the chance to get a Monahan/Ristolainen calibre player. Seems like not everyone agrees but I guess we'll see!

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

is it just me or does there seem to be a need to be wanky in posts these days?

chill out guys it's the draft. Scouts can't agree on it, so don't get your gitch in a knot if people don't agree with you.

Just think if the Flames and Jets reversed roles in the draft how boring draft talk would be around here as Patrik Laine would be near certainty for the Flames.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Yeah its interesting how we all can view the draft so differently. To me the top end of this draft is more like 2013 except the depth really falls off around 20, whereas in 2013 the depth was strong into the 2nd round.

2013 - Elite top grouping of MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Jones
2016 - Elite top grouping of Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi

2013 - Strong secondary tier with Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse, Ristolainen, Horvat, Domi, Nichushkin, Domi, Wennberg, Morrisey, Mantha, Burakovsky, Shinkaruk, etc
2016 - Strong secondary tier with Tkachuk, Dubois, Juolevi, Sergachev, Chychrun, Nylander, McLeod, Jost, Keller, Brown, Gauthier, Jones, Bean, McAvoy, Fabbro, Bellows, Kunin

I think at #6 we have the chance to get a Monahan/Ristolainen calibre player. Seems like not everyone agrees but I guess we'll see!

Mmm, I don't really see a Ristolainen caliber D man in this draft. And thats no slight on this years crop but they're down a bit. Again it's all about how a person perceives things though. I think New Era is closer in his assessment of the D men this year than you are. With Juolevi and Sergachev sitting somewhere in the middle between your two respective opinions. I really think Chychrun is being over hyped and a lot of folks have clued in hence why he is dropping even in the media rankings. More of a Bouwmeester than an Ekblad.

As for a Monahan comparable player this draft? I don't know. If we want to go that way Monahan was really under sold his draft year given how bad his team was and his 10 game suspension and missing the WJC subsequently.

If I am running on the assumption that the likeliest outcome is that Tkachuk and Dubois are gone, I see maybe two or three players that have an outside chance at meeting potential to be a Monahan level of pick @6. That'd be Nylander due to the skill and shot and skating, McLeod for his speed and all around responsible 2 way play and size (closest to Monahan in a lot of way pre-draft) and Jost who is similar to Bennett in more than a few ways but still under tested IMO.

Maybe the combine will shed more light on everyone 5-17 and level the turmoil out. I look forward to some fresh info to consider. Because if we're honest here. Everything we're talking about is on repeat. And it's gotten past it's best before date because right now it's you repeating the same thing over and over again and myself and a few others rebuking the same things over and over again. We could have just erased the last 50 or 60 posts we've made and boiled it down to one or two posts each.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Bingo

is it just me or does there seem to be a need to be wanky in posts these days?

chill out guys it's the draft. Scouts can't agree on it, so don't get your gitch in a knot if people don't agree with you.

*cough* New Era *cough*

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

*cough* New Era *cough*

There's the pot calling the kettle darkly pigmented.