Scenario: Big 5 are gone who WILL they take?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Poirier, Pribyl and Pollack are probably the only RWs in the system with top two line potential. Obviously Treliving has already started to address that weakness with the Pribyl signing and grabbing Pollack in the Russell trade. So he's already started working on the longterm issue. But Nylander is probably 2 years away and we need wingers this fall. So yes RW is an immediate need and one that won't be filled this draft since we didn't win the lottery.

We can't wait 2 years for Nylander and do nothing about the immediate problem. Treliving needs to upgrade the wing this offseason. So yes he certainly will be looking at trades and free agency to help bolster our immediate need for a winger. And Nylander does nothing to help that unless he surprises and steps right in. With his slight frame I'm guessing most don't think he has much of a chance of making the team next fall.

In the end the Flames are helped most by drafting the best asset available. They know that top pairing defensemen are extremely valuable assets. They will draft the best player available, not the best RW available. They can use the other 9 draft picks to bolster RW if they want, it doesn't have to be the 1st rounder that is spent on that area.

I'm not sure why you are so against the idea of best player available. The Flames will not be drafting to fill immediate needs. Treliving needs to fix those immediate needs this summer and our 1st rounder will likely have nothing to do with that.

Boy the arrogance flows through you.

1. I'm not against drafting BPA. It's not out of this world to think that BPA is Nylander. I am however against drafting you perception of BPA.

2. All of the prospects outside of the top 3 are in the same boat as Nylander likely needing 2 years to develop. But to fit your argument it needs to be a negative towards Nylander when he's done nothing to dictate otherwise to warrant such disdain. Oh god he's a Nylander. Oh god he's a swede, oh god this oh god that, much fretting, such concern.

3. Your argument to not draft a RW is Pribyl and Pollock? Really? That's putting an awful lot of eggs into a basket. Still doesn't deal with long term depth or immediate depth either. We lost Jones and Hudler. It evens out and then you're still left with the weakest depth in the NHL throughout the organization.

4. I've already said I want Sergachev if they go D. Miss that part? Still doesn't negate the fact RW needs to be addressed in the draft as well. And more so than any other positions, by a country mile. I'm skipping goalie because there's no Carey price up in the top 6. But there's a top line RW that helps immensely.

[868904]

Craig always gets the inside scoop from Tod, Brown checks many of the boxes for the Flames: high hockey IQ, bloodlines, SIZE, SIZE, SIZE. Not necessarily who I want, but I wouldn't be massively disappointed.

I personally like Keller, but that will be a really bold selection at 6.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Boy the arrogance flows through you.

I'm not sure what I said was arrogant. You appear to be getting defensive again and I'm not sure why.

Originally Posted by dammage79

1. I'm not against drafting BPA. It's not out of this world to think that BPA is Nylander. I am however against drafting you perception of BPA.

Agreed, its not out of this world to think Nylander is the BPA. He's around the range we're drafting. My personal opinion is that he may be lower on the Flames list then he is on the consensus lists like Bob Mackenzie and THN. You obviously don't have to agree.

I think if you prefer Nylander because you think he's BPA that's fine. You'd be in the majority on this board.

Originally Posted by dammage79

2. All of the prospects outside of the top 3 are in the same boat as Nylander likely needing 2 years to develop. But to fit your argument it needs to be a negative towards Nylander when he's done nothing to dictate otherwise to warrant such disdain. Oh god he's a Nylander. Oh god he's a swede, oh god this oh god that, much fretting, such concern.

It's not a negative on Nylander. But it does mean that if we're drafting him to fit our immediate needs he fails to do that because he's not ready immediately. So are you in favour of drafting him because he's BPA? Or because he fits our immediate needs? I respect the argument that he is BPA for you. I don't respect the idea that we should prioritize RWs or right shooters and make them the BPA over any other choice due to lack of depth in that area.

Why don't I like Nylander as much as most fans on here? Because I don't value skilled finesse wingers as highly as most people would. I'd much rather have a top pairing d-men. I suspect the Flames management may feel the same way but hey, we're only guessing right?

Originally Posted by dammage79

3. Your argument to not draft a RW is Pribyl and Pollock? Really? That's putting an awful lot of eggs into a basket. Still doesn't deal with long term depth or immediate depth either. We lost Jones and Hudler. It evens out and then you're still left with the weakest depth in the NHL throughout the organization.

Nope. My argument to not draft a RW is that there may be better players available that we should draft instead. Nylander isn't in my top 8 for this draft because as I said I don't value skilled finesse wingers as much as most people do.

Originally Posted by dammage79

4. I've already said I want Sergachev if they go D. Miss that part? Still doesn't negate the fact RW needs to be addressed in the draft as well. And more so than any other positions, by a country mile. I'm skipping goalie because there's no Carey price up in the top 6. But there's a top line RW that helps immensely.

It doesn't need to be addressed this draft. It could be addressed through trading for an established RW, through trading for RW prospects, through signing RW prospects, through signing established RWs. There are multiple ways to solve the RW issue and the draft is merely one way. The downside with the draft is it likely solves the issue 2-6 years down the line when RW may no longer be much of an issue.

To boil it down I have no problem with you having Nylander as the BPA. I do have a problem with people thinking we can or should solve our immediate needs through the draft. I've noticed that in your rankings over the past few months you tend to prioritize right shooters and have them rise on your rankings above all others. I think that is a dangerous. At times you appear to subscribe to the philosophy of best right shooting forward available and not best player available. If I'm wrong then I apologize.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by New Era

@ Button comparisons

Nylander reminds me of Alex Semin. Lots of skill, but not around when the play matters. I'd stay away from him. He'll probably have a couple of big years, but won't see a long shelf life. He'll be as good as his linemates. Chychrun reminds me of Bryan Fogarty. Million dollar tools, but a five cent toolbox. Of all the top guys in this draft that have bust potential I would call Chychrun the guy to bust hardest. Juolevi reminds me more of Lubo Visnovsky. Probably be a pretty good player, but I don't see anything more than some of the players we already have in the system. This really is turning into a draft where there are three great prospects and then a whole bunch that could be good, but come with warts you have to accept and hope they work past.

Nylander isn't my favorite prospect either, and I am hoping the Flames draft someone else. With that being said though, I don't really agree with your argument and your Semin comparison.

Nylander slowed down in the season apparently due to an injury - apparently being the key word. However, he went 2 points per game in the playoffs - that is the definition of a player stepping up when needed I think. Also, in fairness to Semin, he was really pretty good until his wrist injury, and has just looked awful since then for the last few seasons - though you are right and I can't say he is a player that stepped up always when it mattered. Still, if the Flames could draft a pre-injury Semin with the 6th pick, I call it a home-run.

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

All very good points. I'm not convinced that Chychrun has poor hockey sense is the only thing. If he does then he certainly drops on the Flames list. But the variance in his rankings does not mean he lacks hockey sense, it could merely mean that some teams read his draft year differently than others do. Referring to the THN issue in particular they say, "the Sarnia blue liner didn't show many cracks in his game."

I think with Chychrun his 16 year old season had scouts expectations sky high for this year. And obviously he didn't quite meet the expectations. But does that make him a bad prospect for 5 years down the line? Or were the scouts expectations the problem? Doesn't seem like anyone thought he had a bad year but he had a mediocre end to it. I think it boils down to Chychrun having had a bit of a plateau in his development. Scouts like to see constant progress ideally. But if he started so far ahead of everybody based on his 16 year old year does a subpar draft year mean he lost his top 5 potential? I'm not sure about that part.

I know from having listened to many years of Tod Button interviews during and after the draft that the Flames scouts definitely look at the whole body of work. Button will reference watching a kid at 16. I wonder if the teams and scouts dropping Chychrun are guilty of putting too much stock into his most recent performance (U18) or are guilty of having sky high expectations for him this year. In both cases I could see the Flames as being the type of team that holds their opinion of him steady despite his play fluctuating a bit this year.

I also want to add to this that from what I have read and listened to, Chychrun was deployed a lot differently than Juolevi and Sergachev. Chychrun was given loads more ice-time and in all situations - some scouts felt that perhaps he was being overplayed and tired, and thus his 'mistakes' at times. They also say that perhaps he was learning how to play so many minutes regularly - i.e. the defencemen that play big minutes in the NHL know when to coast and save energy, and when not to.

He was also apparently battling through a bit of an injury.

Now, perhaps most of the scouting community knows all these tidbits (and I am assuming they do of course) and still feel that his problem was mostly IQ related and not due to exhaustion/injury, then I personally drop him below the other two defencemen. I just have no idea if those were real and legitimate excuses, or just an attempt to 'build him up'. Just thought I would mention those aspects since your post was speaking to his IQ.

Originally Posted by dammage79

RW isn't just an immediate need. It's like needing immediate surgery on your arm to save it but you opt to have surgery on your perfectly fine legs. Makes no sense.

And Treliving can address any position in UFA or trades, does that make any other prospect not worthy of being drafted? You draft to fill weaknesses in your organization too. It's utter nonsense to think otherwise.

What do the Flames have more of in their prospect base? LW? C? D? Or RW? Better yet, out of the prospect pool how many players in each position have potential to be top six?

There's only 1 in the RW department....1!! And hasnt even come close to proving he close to that yet. Top end RW depth is beyond terrible. It's the worst in the league. But hey let's not address that problem in the draft, let's try to get some older UFAs or try to make a trade when a perfectly free asset is sitting right there at our pick that has top line potential.


Edit: and who cares what EDM or VAN think. They suck. Benning is beyond terrible. And Chiarelli and the Oilers have yet to make a tough draft decision. And they still manage to eff it up. Yeah let's build a case for the Flames list using information from not only our closest rivals but also the two franchises who cannot do anything right. Derp

I am also against drafting for positional need as I think all you end up doing is fire-fighting. Remember when the Flames had 50 goal scorer Iginla, 30 goal scorer Bourque, and 20 goal scorer Moss all on the right side? Plus more guys? Within 2 seasons, that completely evaporated.

Remember when the Flames had Gaudreau, Baertschi, Glencross and Klimchuk (recently drafted)? That was the very deepest position organizationally. Now? I think they could use another couple LW's in the system, as there isn't a tonne of talent for the top 6.

Remember when the Flames went from one of the best bluelines in the league with Regehr, Bouwmeester, Phaneuf, Giordano and Sarich? Plus a multitude of decent looking defensive prospects like Negrin? It got decimated... then got built up relatively quickly. Flames entered the draft last year fairly weak in that area, and now I would say they are the strongest organizationally on defence as Hamilton dropped into their laps, Kylington dropped a LOT at the draft, and Andersson also dropped quite a bit (given his pre-season ranking in the top 10 on some lists). It is extremely difficult to foresee any of that happening.

Drafting for need is a sign I think that a management team has no long-term philosophy or vision. I always think you take the best prospect available, or if it is a tie, then you can select for organizational need.

I guess it really comes down to how someone perceives the draft. I look at it as the best way in adding value to an organization. The more value each prospect carries, the more value the organization has. If a positional need arises, the Flames can always trade from a position of strength to one of weakness.

I actually like how Burke views the draft - Defencemen over forwards, centers over wingers. In terms of value, that is essentially the ranking you see within trades. Wingers are the ones that are often let-go and traded away when teams hit cap issues. They are the first casualties and are either let go, or traded. Teams do their best to hold onto defencemen and centers, and only trade them for premium prices.

Now, if the BPA is Nylander, or Keller (who I think will be a winger), then by all means I hope the Flames draft said player on their list. It doesn't matter if a prospect plays a 'more valuable' or 'superior position' if said prospect doesn't even make the NHL of course. But again, that is why a team has to pick the BPA - to reduce the risk of busts. Draft for organizational need, and you run the risk of taking a lesser player to fill a hole, but because he is a lesser player he has an even smaller chance of making the NHL and adding value to the organization.

The one time in the last few years where I was hoping the Flames would pick for organizational need was with Laine over Mathews if the Flames won the 1st overall pick - but that was more to do with that gap being (IMO) fairly small, and Laine's other attributes that I think are missing on the Flames team (size and physicality in the top 6 to go along with an amazing skill-set). Toronto would be foolish to pick Laine over Mathews since they don't have the organizational center depth to do it (Marner looks good, but unproven - and might play wing, ditto for Nylander - though one of those two will for sure end up being a lights-out 2nd line center, with the other transitioning to be a very strong winger given a scenario where they draft Mathews). If they draft Laine, then both Nylander and Marner HAVE to both hit.

Just my two-cents anyways.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I'm not sure what I said was arrogant. You appear to be getting defensive again and I'm not sure why.



Agreed, its not out of this world to think Nylander is the BPA. He's around the range we're drafting. My personal opinion is that he may be lower on the Flames list then he is on the consensus lists like Bob Mackenzie and THN. You obviously don't have to agree.

I think if you prefer Nylander because you think he's BPA that's fine. You'd be in the majority on this board.



It's not a negative on Nylander. But it does mean that if we're drafting him to fit our immediate needs he fails to do that because he's not ready immediately. So are you in favour of drafting him because he's BPA? Or because he fits our immediate needs? I respect the argument that he is BPA for you. I don't respect the idea that we should prioritize RWs or right shooters and make them the BPA over any other choice due to lack of depth in that area.

Why don't I like Nylander as much as most fans on here? Because I don't value skilled finesse wingers as highly as most people would. I'd much rather have a top pairing d-men. I suspect the Flames management may feel the same way but hey, we're only guessing right?



Nope. My argument to not draft a RW is that there may be better players available that we should draft instead. Nylander isn't in my top 8 for this draft because as I said I don't value skilled finesse wingers as much as most people do.



It doesn't need to be addressed this draft. It could be addressed through trading for an established RW, through trading for RW prospects, through signing RW prospects, through signing established RWs. There are multiple ways to solve the RW issue and the draft is merely one way. The downside with the draft is it likely solves the issue 2-6 years down the line when RW may no longer be much of an issue.

To boil it down I have no problem with you having Nylander as the BPA. I do have a problem with people thinking we can or should solve our immediate needs through the draft. I've noticed that in your rankings over the past few months you tend to prioritize right shooters and have them rise on your rankings above all others. I think that is a dangerous. At times you appear to subscribe to the philosophy of best right shooting forward available and not best player available. If I'm wrong then I apologize.

The RW issue is both an immediate need and long term need. You simply cannot separate the two. The BPA @ 6 over the 3 defensemen is clearly Nylander who happens to fit the teams need. Long term, short term, any kind of term.

And to answer you question of my preference. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what the Flames sorely lack since Iggy left. RH shooters. Up and down the Flames depth chart from the main roster to the farm to the prospect pool it is a dire dire need to fill. So yeah, without overthinking from a fan perspective what the Flames need RH shooters are gold to me.

Give me a Finn or Nylander over Tkachuk or Dubois, give me McLeod over Jost or Keller or Brown.

If this was last year, I'd say take a D man simply because when you looked at the depth chart, you kind of gagged at the lack of top end depth. Now in one draft BAM, depth was addressed. and greatly too.

This draft, RW or RH shot all day, all night for me. Want size? Tons of that in the later rounds. Skilled RH shooters? Not so much.

At the end of the day though, the Flames have a handle on things, I trust them, whatever pick they make I'll be fine with. But my preferences are aimed at what they lack which is what you look at in a draft.

And last season, I wanted Barzal, Connor, Konecny or Svechnikov or Kylington at the Flames pick. Flames still got the guy. Also, I wanted Rasmus Andersson from the first day that central scouting released their players to watch list. Big RH D man. And that was in the first round when that list came out, as the season went on I thought they could snag him in the 2nd. We got him, and everyone is happy as a clam. I think I've got a good grip on things when it comes to the draft. This year it's a mess but one thing I feel the Flames can get this year in the 1st round is a solid...really solid RH shooter at forward. I hope they go that way but I wont cry if they don't.

I want them to take McLeod just to see the meltdown here. Just for amusement.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

And to answer you question of my preference. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what the Flames sorely lack since Iggy left. RH shooters. Up and down the Flames depth chart from the main roster to the farm to the prospect pool it is a dire dire need to fill. So yeah, without overthinking from a fan perspective what the Flames need RH shooters are gold to me.

Dire need is overstating things IMO. I think Treliving could assemble a Stanley Cup contender that has zero RH shots up front theoretically. They are a nice to have IMO, but again Treliving can find them through UFA or trade if he really wants to prioritize that. I don't see them as a necessity to compete, certainly not enough of one to reorganize our draft list in order to prioritize them.

What the Flames sorely lack since Iginla left is Kiprusoff. As for this draft I hope they take the best player available not the best right shooting forward available. But I like you am confident they will do so.

[flamesfan1297]

Man why is everyone posting such long posts i this thread????

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Is Keller going the college route?

Not crazy about having to wait 3-4 years and then running the risk of the player going UFA.

only if the Oilers pick him

[Alberta_Beef]

If Chychrun is on the board I think the Flames grab him.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I'm not sure why you are so against the idea of best player available. The Flames will not be drafting to fill immediate needs. Treliving needs to fix those immediate needs this summer and our 1st rounder will likely have nothing to do with that.

No one is against drafting BPA. It's just that you are making the call of what BPA is and thinking that is gospel. Other people have different lists and think BPA is a completely different player than the ones you keep promoting. I think you are basing BPA off of a amalgamation of faulty draft lists from specious sources rather than thinking about the Flames needs and what they have said their preferences are. BPA comes from the team list and not from what Bob McKenzie or Craig Button or some poster on HFBoards has to say.

BPA comes in many different flavors each draft. It is dependent on the team list which is dependent on team philosophy and needs. Great example of this were the Flyers list a few years ago when they had six of their top 10 as defensemen, most of them way off the THN and McKenzie lists. Another great example has been Flames drafting during the Sutter years. They drafted a certain type of player with certain qualities. It lead to the likes of Chucko, Pelech and even Nemisz. The current Flames management also believe in following a specific philosophy and it shows in their drafting as well. Their list is going to be dramatically different from everyone else's, and this will include the top six players.

BPA for the Flames is going to be interesting. I can't see them taking a defenseman. They have plenty of depth on the farm and none of the defensemen available have the trajectory to be a major player at that position. The Flames weaknesses are on the right side and size in skill positions. There are plenty of options in this draft to address both. I think the Flames follow their philosophy and find the best skill player, with size, skill and character, and select him with their first pick. I also believe they will attempt to address an organizational weakness, just as Treliving has been doing since he arrived, but picks players that can fill those specific pools of talent.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

If Chychrun is on the board I think the Flames grab him.

Almost every year there is a guy that slides and I think he's the guy this season. I think he's going to fall out of the top 10 because of the hockey IQ question marks. If you read THN draft preview they interview a bunch of scouts and their biggest red flag is low hockey IQ.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Almost every year there is a guy that slides and I think he's the guy this season. I think he's going to fall out of the top 10 because of the hockey IQ question marks. If you read THN draft preview they interview a bunch of scouts and their biggest red flag is low hockey IQ.

I wouldn't even wipe my ass with that rag let alone read that drivel.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I wouldn't even wipe my ass with that rag let alone read that drivel.

It was actually a really good article getting input from NHL scouts. Not reading it because of preconceived notions is your loss.

[bubbsy]

Folks really getting worked up here...

As a flames fan, here's my reaction to it all :
1) disappointed we didn't get in the top3 lottery after a crummy year

2) would have been nice to get the 4/5 spot as there are big wingers that would have fit in quite nicely into the program here

3) at 6, there are a plethora of options on who the flames could pick where i don't think the gap/delta is all that large prospect to prospect. There are skilled forwards, giant skilled centerman, and potentially our pick of any dmen in the entire draft class.

Point 3, leaves me quite satisfied, as I think the flames will be ok whichever way they go. It is also important to assume the player picked will likely not be on the big club this fall, but perhaps the year after.

How the flames handle their 4 picks between 35-65 has me just as, or perhaps even more intrigued. Do they package those in to move up in the draft, do they use those to try to solve current roster gaps?

Draft weekend is going to be awesome, i'm just sad that there's still more than 5 weeks till it's here!

[kyuss275]

When this first started in another thread i went with Nylander. After Burkes comments i started thinking it would be someone with size like Brown. I never thought any of the D were worth a top6 pick. I still don't because imo most look like a 2nd pairing d-men. Add in the fact that the flames pretty much picked up 3 d-men with last years first 3 picks (counting Hamilton trade with the first round pick), i can't see them going with another d-man with their first pick unless he blows them away. I've gone back and decided that my original pick in Nylander is the correct one. Is he the big player the flames need? the answer is no. That said he has the most skill and probably the only player left on the board that has a legit chance on being a 1st line rw.

[Red Menace]

I don't think taking BPA automatically is necessarily the best strategy when you have a top 5-6 pick. The chances of those top picks making an impact is much higher, and can more safely assume they will make your team in the next few years. For this reason, I think you can and should target any deficiencies in your organization with this type of premium pick. For me the Flames would be somewhat foolish to target a D with this pick and should be looking at the wings.

Now that only applies if you consider the players available to be of roughly the same level..if you think there is a franchise D out there and the wingers are middling, then by all means take the D, but i don't believe that is the case this year.
When you get lower in the 1st round and the rest of the draft, by all means take BPA...but these premium picks give teams a rare chance to address their most pressing needs.

[Poe969]

I think the team should take the BPA every time but I think their list of best players is different than everyone else's list. The Flames will take who they think is the BPA and I'm fine with that. All I know is the Flames are going to get a good player with this pick, that's fine by me.

[SuperMatt18]

The one area where I think the Flames might prefer Nylander is his hockey IQ.

Lots of talk about his elite hockey sense and knowing where the puck is going and where he needs to be.

Another guy with elite hockey sense would be helpful on a line with Gaudreau or Bennett.

[Flames_F.T.W]

The more time that goes on, I'm starting to think the Flames may opt to take D (maybe trading down a spot or two). It's become pretty obvious in the past few years that top pairing and even top 4 D are a prized commodity in the NHL. Treliving always refers to asset management, and having a plethora of young potential top 4 D gives us valuable currency to address needs elsewhere. Look at what Nashville was able to do with their defensive depth, they acquired a #1C in Johansen.

I think there's a very real chance they have one or even several D ranked in the 6-8 range.

A lot of people (myself included) are hoping to address the lack of high end skill in our top 6 this summer, but that may be short sighted. As others have stated, taking a D is much less sexy than a high scoring winger, but wingers are often easier to acquire via free agency than top 3-4 D. In any case, the draft can't come soon enough!

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Flames_F.T.W

The more time that goes on, I'm starting to think the Flames may opt to take D (maybe trading down a spot or two). It's become pretty obvious in the past few years that top pairing and even top 4 D are a prized commodity in the NHL. Treliving always refers to asset management, and having a plethora of young potential top 4 D gives us valuable currency to address needs elsewhere. Look at what Nashville was able to do with their defensive depth, they acquired a #1C in Johansen.

It also gives you cap flexibility. If the Flames are in a cap crunch in four years, one of their high salaried d-men could be moved if there's a replacement ready to step up.