Scenario: Big 5 are gone who WILL they take?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I think it's a coin flip between Brown and Keller. I'll say this, people compare Brown to Joe Thornton, but if he can even be James Van Riemsdyk that might be enticing too.

Not even close. I have seen Joe play even before Junior B and Brown is not even remotely close to Joe Thornton nor will he ever be. Whomever is making that comparison is out to lunch.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

To attempt to dissect who should be in consideration for that #6 pick its always a smart idea to take a look at the best consensus rankings and those are the ones done by Bob Mackenzie.

http://www.tsn.ca/laine-closes-gap-o...kings-1.478128

6. Nylander RW
7. Juolevi D
8. Sergachev D
9. Chychrun D
10. Keller C

What do we know of the Flames?
1. They think defensemen are more valuable than forwards and that centres are more important than wingers. (see Burke video I linked in the draft thread). If players in the draft are tied they would use those positionally priorities as tiebreakers.
2. They would like to get bigger and stronger but not at the expense of skill/skating

Because of those reasons I think for the Flames that they may have dropped Nylander behind 2-3 of the defensemen. I could be wrong on that. Nylander could be in our top 6. But I also think its possible he's not in their top 8. He's certainly a sexy pick and he does fit our need for skill on the wing. But I do think that the Flames could see 2-3 of the defensemen as more valuable commodities down the line.

Here's Mackenzie on the breakdown of the top d-men

"Chychrun was the only defenceman to be ranked in anyone's top four prospects. One scout had him at No. 4 overall. But only four of the 10 scouts surveyed had him in their Top 10; six had him ranked 11th or lower. Worth noting, though, is that of the four scouts who ranked Chychrun in the Top 10, all four viewed him as the best defenceman in the draft.
In contrast, Juolevi’s highest rank was No. 5 overall, but nine of 10 scouts had him in their top 10. Two scouts had him ranked as the top D-man in the draft.
Sergachev’s highest rank was No. 6; seven of 10 scouts had him in their Top 10 but only two ranked him as the top defenceman in the draft"

So Chychrun seems to be a real source of disagreement in the scouting community. He's either your top ranked defenseman or he's not in your top 10. However 4/10 scouts did have him as the best d-man even though he ended up 9th on Bob's list.

Sergachev seems to have all the tools. Only thing I don't like about him is that he's Russian. He was the top d-men for 2 scouts Mackenzie talked to.

Juolevi is the least sexy of the d-men. He's smooth, calm, poised. Doesn't go for the big hit, doesn't have the best shot. But his decision making and hockey IQ are probably the best. He was the top d-men for 2 scouts Mackenzie talked to.

Bean and Fabbro both had one scout that believed they are the best in the draft. Redline has both of them Top 10. Just to confuse the issue with the defensemen even more.

Anyways I thought it might be interesting to bring it back to Bob's list since he's the one talking to real NHL scouts. According to him Brown maybe isn't in contention for our pick. According to Mackenzie the most likely players to be in that elite 6 for the Flames along with Tkachuk/Dubois would be Nylander, Juolevi, Sergachev and Chychrun. I do think those 4 are the most likely candidates. I've detailed my reasons on why I think the Flames may prefer a d-man over Nylander but I can't rule out Nylander being high for the Flames. I do think Bob's list does highlight that we can't be discounting the d-men. The tricky thing is we don't know which d-men the Flames would prefer and most of us haven't seen enough OHL to form our own opinions. I can make a strong case for all 3 of them.

[JiriHrdina]

If Chych drops they take him and with a smile.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Here's a few videos by Craig Button on a few of the guys we're discussing

Button on Nylander
Defining Trait: Ice Q (Hockey IQ)
NHL Comparable: Joe Pavelski
NHL Projection: 1st Line Finess Winger
http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/video/...ylander~851881

Button on Juolevi
Defining Trait: Two-Way Excellence
NHL Comparable: Ryan McDonagh
NHL Projection: No 1/2 Defenceman
http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/video/...juolevi~857101

Button on Chychrun
Defining Trait: Dominant Skater
NHL Comparable: Cam Fowler
NHL Projection: No 2/3 Defenceman
http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/video/...hychrun~855255

[Mike F]

If you believe that the Flames see a cliff after 6, IMO you have to believe they have either Nylander (the most skilled forward of any remaining) or Brown (the most intriguing package of any other player) as their #6... I personally don't see enough daylight between Juolevi, Chychrun, and Sergachev to have one guy on one side of a cliff and the other two on another.

So, between Nylander and Brown, I can most easily see Treliving & Burke loving Brown's combination of size and skill enough to put him in a tier above Nylander.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think he already uses his size to his advantage better than Colborne. His puck protection while swooping around the offensive zone in the U18s was impressive. I think part of that is because he's quite strong and filled out for his height and Colborne has always been a bit on the skinny side.

Here's a comment about Brown from an NHL scout in THN's draft preview:

"He's got size, but he might be the weakest guy in all of the draft... I don't think he's bought in yet."

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Here's Mackenzie on the breakdown of the top d-men

"Chychrun was the only defenceman to be ranked in anyone's top four prospects. One scout had him at No. 4 overall. But only four of the 10 scouts surveyed had him in their Top 10; six had him ranked 11th or lower."

That's a huge red flag for me. Chychrun strikes me as the classic 'has all the tools, but we're waiting for him to put them all together" player. And those scare me.

Here are some more comments from scouts in the THN draft preview:

Q: What's an unteachable trait that can't be coached into a kid?

Botterill: Hockey sense, just the ability to read the game. It's something players find at a young age.

Bernhardt: Your hockey sense and feel for the game are inherent things you're not going to change in a hockey player.

Macdonald: A defenseman with questionable hockey sense has a hard time competing at the NHL level.

[Monahan For Mayor]

I think it would be Nylander.

[David Struch]

6. Keller C
7. Nylander RW
8. Chychrun D
9. Brown C
10. Juolevi D

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I didn't say picking 7th or 8th would be better, it's just more disappointing to pick 6th.

Hence the point of this thread. "Big 5". We just miss out.

Show me a draft where everyone 1-5 was better than everyone 6-10+.... this is where the scouts earn their money and get BPA. If they can do that than 5 years from now we won't be worried about missing out on the top 5 in the '16 draft.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Mike F

If you believe that the Flames see a cliff after 6, IMO you have to believe they have either Nylander (the most skilled forward of any remaining) or Brown (the most intriguing package of any other player) as their #6... I personally don't see enough daylight between Juolevi, Chychrun, and Sergachev to have one guy on one side of a cliff and the other two on another.

I think the Flames see a cliff after 8. I think there's a small ledge after 6. I think there could easily be reasons why they have one d-man as their preferred one and in their top grouping while the other two are below. Just because its hard to us to differentiate those 3 doesn't mean the scouts don't have extremely strong opinions as to which one is best.

As noted above the scouts Mackenzie talked to either see Chychrun as the top d-man or they see him out of their top 10. So the Flames could have Chychrun as the top d-men and in that elite 6. Or perhaps his mediocre hockey sense has him out of the top 10 completely for the Flames because we know hockey sense is important to the Flames. If the Flames are prioritizing hockey sense then Juolevi and Fabbro rise.

I just don't agree with your reasoning that it has to be Brown or Nylander. I still think that they have one of the defensemen in that top grouping. I keep waffling between Juolevi, Chychrun and Sergachev.

Here's some arguments for all 3:

Chychrun: Had a dominant age 16 year. Some have said he's one of the best defensemen they've ever seen at that age. The Flames have been scouting him for the last two years and aren't going to forgot that just like they didn't forget Kylington's excellent 16 year old year when they were analyzing his disappointing 17 year old year. Lots of scouts liked most of his work this year as well. He stepped up his offensive production in the 2nd half and had a strong playoffs. He made a few glaring errors at the U18s but is that a pattern? Does it show poor hockey sense? Or was it just a 17 year old kid failing to make perfect decisions? If his U18 performance was representative of his entire year then I would be worried. But if that was an aberration then its dangerous to read too much into it. His elite skating means his floor is still quite high. For example Phaneuf is a defenseman with a lot of tools but questionable hockey sense and his skating is nowhere near as good as Chychrun's is. But Phaneuf still played top pairing for a long time and is still a valuable 2nd pairing guy. Imagine Phaneuf with Brodie like skating. That seems to be Chychrun's downside if you think his hockey IQ is meh. And if you don't believe his hockey IQ is meh then the sky is the limit.

Sergachev: Has all the tools you're looking for. Skating, size, shot, puck handling, hitting, joins the rush. One of the top defenders in the OHL. Calm and poised with the puck. Only consistent knock on him I've heard is that he's got to polish up a bit in the defensive zone, something that can usually be taught. I don't see why he doesn't have top pairing potential,

Juolevi: Smartest of the bunch. Always knows where his teammates are, always knows where the safe place to outlet the puck is. Extremely smooth skating. Nice size but needs to continue to fill out. Good shot blocker. He also seems like he could have top pairing potential. Least sexy of the three but very efficient.

I think the Flames would take a top pairing d-man over a 1st line finesse winger. But I know that isn't the popular opinion.

[dammage79]

If it's a D man, I hope it's Sergachev. But all this boiling down and trying to make the most educated assumption still misses the mark as organizational depth screams...nay cries bloody blue murder for RW depth. If it's not a Finn it has to be Nylander.

He's the BPA even ahead of the D Men even if a team needs a D man after the other 5 FWs are gone.

Just doesn't make any sense at all to prioritize a D man for the Flames. It's the simplest fact that anyone even casual fans can see as the weakest part of the team outside of goaltending is RW.

[Vulcan]

After reading and listening more, I'm changing my vote from Chychrun to Juolevi. I think he's the safer bet with the best upside. He won't play with us for a year or two but that's fine.

I won't be surprised if our pick is Nylander though.

[Lanny_McDonald]

@ Button comparisons

Nylander reminds me of Alex Semin. Lots of skill, but not around when the play matters. I'd stay away from him. He'll probably have a couple of big years, but won't see a long shelf life. He'll be as good as his linemates. Chychrun reminds me of Bryan Fogarty. Million dollar tools, but a five cent toolbox. Of all the top guys in this draft that have bust potential I would call Chychrun the guy to bust hardest. Juolevi reminds me more of Lubo Visnovsky. Probably be a pretty good player, but I don't see anything more than some of the players we already have in the system. This really is turning into a draft where there are three great prospects and then a whole bunch that could be good, but come with warts you have to accept and hope they work past.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Here's a comment about Brown from an NHL scout in THN's draft preview:

"He's got size, but he might be the weakest guy in all of the draft... I don't think he's bought in yet."

That's a huge red flag for me. Chychrun strikes me as the classic 'has all the tools, but we're waiting for him to put them all together" player. And those scare me.

Here are some more comments from scouts in the THN draft preview:

Q: What's an unteachable trait that can't be coached into a kid?

Botterill: Hockey sense, just the ability to read the game. It's something players find at a young age.

Bernhardt: Your hockey sense and feel for the game are inherent things you're not going to change in a hockey player.

Macdonald: A defenseman with questionable hockey sense has a hard time competing at the NHL level.

All very good points. I'm not convinced that Chychrun has poor hockey sense is the only thing. If he does then he certainly drops on the Flames list. But the variance in his rankings does not mean he lacks hockey sense, it could merely mean that some teams read his draft year differently than others do. Referring to the THN issue in particular they say, "the Sarnia blue liner didn't show many cracks in his game."

I think with Chychrun his 16 year old season had scouts expectations sky high for this year. And obviously he didn't quite meet the expectations. But does that make him a bad prospect for 5 years down the line? Or were the scouts expectations the problem? Doesn't seem like anyone thought he had a bad year but he had a mediocre end to it. I think it boils down to Chychrun having had a bit of a plateau in his development. Scouts like to see constant progress ideally. But if he started so far ahead of everybody based on his 16 year old year does a subpar draft year mean he lost his top 5 potential? I'm not sure about that part.

I know from having listened to many years of Tod Button interviews during and after the draft that the Flames scouts definitely look at the whole body of work. Button will reference watching a kid at 16. I wonder if the teams and scouts dropping Chychrun are guilty of putting too much stock into his most recent performance (U18) or are guilty of having sky high expectations for him this year. In both cases I could see the Flames as being the type of team that holds their opinion of him steady despite his play fluctuating a bit this year.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

He's the BPA even ahead of the D Men even if a team needs a D man after the other 5 FWs are gone.

That is very debatable. The most interesting thing to me is that neither Benning nor Chiarelli has ever brought up Nylander in an interview as a guy that they think is in their pick range. Chiarelli brought up Tkachuk, Dubois, Brown (brought up Brown unprompted) and 3-4 defensemen as being in the 4-9 range. Benning has talked about Tkachuk, Dubois, Brown and 2 defensemen. And I don't think they didn't bring Nylander up because they're hoping to nab him at #4 or #5, I think they were being honest and they just don't see him as in that range. If he's nowhere near their range then I doubt he would be for the Flames either.

Nylander scores high on these consensus lists but I'm not convinced teams see him as BPA at #6. I think he's right in the mix there with some of the defensemen but teams often break these ties with organizational philosophy.

Originally Posted by dammage79

Just doesn't make any sense at all to prioritize a D man for the Flames. It's the simplest fact that anyone even casual fans can see as the weakest part of the team outside of goaltending is RW.

It has to do with BPA and the Flames philosophy that defensemen are more valuable than forwards in general and thus in a tie between the defensemen and Nylander, the winger would lose.

You don't draft to fill your immediate needs although its great if it works out that way. Flames management has already said that outside the top 3 the players aren't likely to step in. Treliving can easily address RW through trade or UFAs instead since he needs to address that issue before next season. If we traded Andersson, Hickey or Kylington before the draft for a RW would you suddenly be wanting us to draft a d-man? Immediate needs can change in an instant. Treliving could bring in 3 RWers this offseason (Pribyl, a UFA and a trade) and suddenly RW could no longer be a glaring weakness.

All that said Nylander could be our pick. I'm just not convinced we'll turn down a potential top pairing d-man for a finesse winger. Flames will be thinking long term on this pick. You seem to be focusing on short term needs. Short term needs are almost never filled through the draft even though we want them to be. I mean part of why I like Tkachuk/Dubois a lot is because they'd fill a short term and long term need. But its dangerous to focus too much on short term needs. The Flames will certainly not be picking a player this draft based on short term needs.

[Matty81]

Haven't seen a lot of them playing outside the international competitions but read every mock draft and scouting report that I've found since January. Based on that obviously limited info, my top 4 rankings are:
Keller
Brown/Jost (toss up for me)
Nylander
I excluded the d-men because to be honest their rankings swing so wildly and Chrychrun not playing at the WJCs I find it to tough to compare them, though Juolevi looked great.

[Bunk]

I think they will either trade up one or two (take Dubois or Tkachuk) or trade down a few slots and take someone like Sergachev.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

That is very debatable. The most interesting thing to me is that neither Benning nor Chiarelli has ever brought up Nylander in an interview as a guy that they think is in their pick range. Chiarelli brought up Tkachuk, Dubois, Brown (brought up Brown unprompted) and 3-4 defensemen as being in the 4-9 range. Benning has talked about Tkachuk, Dubois, Brown and 2 defensemen. And I don't think they didn't bring Nylander up because they're hoping to nab him at #4 or #5, I think they were being honest and they just don't see him as in that range. If he's nowhere near their range then I doubt he would be for the Flames either.

Nylander scores high on these consensus lists but I'm not convinced teams see him as BPA at #6. I think he's right in the mix there with some of the defensemen but teams often break these ties with organizational philosophy.



It has to do with BPA and the Flames philosophy that defensemen are more valuable than forwards in general and thus in a tie between the defensemen and Nylander, the winger would lose.

You don't draft to fill your immediate needs although its great if it works out that way. Flames management has already said that outside the top 3 the players aren't likely to step in. Treliving can easily address RW through trade or UFAs instead since he needs to address that issue before next season. If we traded Andersson, Hickey or Kylington before the draft for a RW would you suddenly be wanting us to draft a d-man? Immediate needs can change in an instant. Treliving could bring in 3 RWers this offseason (Pribyl, a UFA and a trade) and suddenly RW could no longer be a glaring weakness.

All that said Nylander could be our pick. I'm just not convinced we'll turn down a potential top pairing d-man for a finesse winger. Flames will be thinking long term on this pick. You seem to be focusing on short term needs. Short term needs are almost never filled through the draft even though we want them to be. I mean part of why I like Tkachuk/Dubois a lot is because they'd fill a short term and long term need. But its dangerous to focus too much on short term needs.

RW isn't just an immediate need. It's like needing immediate surgery on your arm to save it but you opt to have surgery on your perfectly fine legs. Makes no sense.

And Treliving can address any position in UFA or trades, does that make any other prospect not worthy of being drafted? You draft to fill weaknesses in your organization too. It's utter nonsense to think otherwise.

What do the Flames have more of in their prospect base? LW? C? D? Or RW? Better yet, out of the prospect pool how many players in each position have potential to be top six?

There's only 1 in the RW department....1!! And hasnt even come close to proving he close to that yet. Top end RW depth is beyond terrible. It's the worst in the league. But hey let's not address that problem in the draft, let's try to get some older UFAs or try to make a trade when a perfectly free asset is sitting right there at our pick that has top line potential.


Edit: and who cares what EDM or VAN think. They suck. Benning is beyond terrible. And Chiarelli and the Oilers have yet to make a tough draft decision. And they still manage to eff it up. Yeah let's build a case for the Flames list using information from not only our closest rivals but also the two franchises who cannot do anything right. Derp

[The Original FFIV]

The choices listed are the equivalent of going into an ice cream shop and seeing vanilla ice cream on the menu 10 separate times. Nothing really to get excited about. Just have to trust the scouts know what the extra creamy vanilla is because barring a surprise with Edmonton or Vancouver's pick, hard to get excited with the choices listed.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

RW isn't just an immediate need. It's like needing immediate surgery on your arm to save it but you opt to have surgery on your perfectly fine legs. Makes no sense.

And Treliving can address any position in UFA or trades, does that make any other prospect not worthy of being drafted? You draft to fill weaknesses in your organization too. It's utter nonsense to think otherwise.

What do the Flames have more of in their prospect base? LW? C? D? Or RW? Better yet, out of the prospect pool how many players in each position have potential to be top six?

There's only 1 in the RW department....1!! And hasnt even come close to proving he close to that yet. Top end RW depth is beyond terrible. It's the worst in the league. But hey let's not address that problem in the draft, let's try to get some older UFAs or try to make a trade when a perfectly free asset is sitting right there at our pick that has top line potential.

Poirier, Pribyl and Pollack are probably the only RWs in the system with top two line potential. Obviously Treliving has already started to address that weakness with the Pribyl signing and grabbing Pollack in the Russell trade. So he's already started working on the longterm issue. But Nylander is probably 2 years away and we need wingers this fall. So yes RW is an immediate need and one that won't be filled this draft since we didn't win the lottery.

We can't wait 2 years for Nylander and do nothing about the immediate problem. Treliving needs to upgrade the wing this offseason. So yes he certainly will be looking at trades and free agency to help bolster our immediate need for a winger. And Nylander does nothing to help that unless he surprises and steps right in. With his slight frame I'm guessing most don't think he has much of a chance of making the team next fall.

In the end the Flames are helped most by drafting the best asset available. They know that top pairing defensemen are extremely valuable assets. They will draft the best player available, not the best RW available. They can use the other 9 draft picks to bolster RW if they want, it doesn't have to be the 1st rounder that is spent on that area.

I'm not sure why you are so against the idea of best player available. The Flames will not be drafting to fill immediate needs. Treliving needs to fix those immediate needs this summer and our 1st rounder will likely have nothing to do with that.