Scenario: Big 5 are gone who WILL they take?

[Reggie Dunlop]

I see them trading down a few spots for Logan Brown.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

I am very surprised with the amount of love Brown gets. We are talking about 6th overall here, he shouldn't be in that conversation IMO.

I think some of you are valuing his massive size WAY too much.

This isn't necessarily who we want, it's who we think the Flames would pick.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I didn't say picking 7th or 8th would be better, it's just more disappointing to pick 6th.

Hence the point of this thread. "Big 5". We just miss out.

There isn't a ledge after 5 though, there's no quotes from scouts and GMs that would support that view of the draft. EDM has talked about the players from 4-9 being really good players and they've said they are looking into moving down.

And frankly there's a chance one of Tkachuk/Dubois could be there at #6. There's a chance we can trade up to #4 if Treliving wants to because EDM is looking to deal down. There's a chance EDM trades down or trades out of that pick and that may change how things go down. The team at #4 may take Dubois. That may force VAN to trade down or just take Brown or a defenseman (some of their local media believe they want a centre or d-man out of this draft.)

6th is fine unless you think Burke/Treliving have been lying about the ledges.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Treliving says there is a ledge at 6. Unless you think he's lying, I don't see how 6 can be disappointing outside of the fact that we didn't win a top 3 pick.

Burke said there was a ledge at 8 before the draft lottery so it sounds a little like posturing to the fans but maybe Burke and Treliving have different opinions. Treliving is the guy that makes the call

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

I see them trading down a few spots for Logan Brown.

The trading down is an interesting option. If the "ledge" is at 6th then Flames hold some leverage. If they can squeeze out a little more for the package to swap then it might be worth it.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Burke said there was a ledge at 8 before the draft lottery so it sounds a little like posturing to the fans but maybe Burke and Treliving have different opinions. Treliving is the guy that makes the call

Maybe Burke thinks the 3 Dmen are interchangeable.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

I am very surprised with the amount of love Brown gets. We are talking about 6th overall here, he shouldn't be in that conversation IMO.

I think some of you are valuing his massive size WAY too much.

I don't think Brown is just an average hockey player. He has the physical tools and speed to be dominant.

It all comes down the interviews on this guy. If he's disinterested he's a bad pick. If the final 2 months suggest to Treliving that he now "gets it" (supported somewhat by his coach Rocky Thompson) then picking Brown could be a hugely positive move by the Flames.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

There isn't a ledge after 5 though, there's no quotes from scouts and GMs that would support that view of the draft. EDM has talked about the players from 4-9 being really good players and they've said they are looking into moving down.

And frankly there's a chance one of Tkachuk/Dubois could be there at #6. There's a chance we can trade up to #4 if Treliving wants to because EDM is looking to deal down. There's a chance EDM trades down or trades out of that pick and that may change how things go down. The team at #4 may take Dubois. That may force VAN to trade down or just take Brown or a defenseman (some of their local media believe they want a centre or d-man out of this draft.)

6th is fine unless you think Burke/Treliving have been lying about the ledges.

The fact that this thread exists just speaks to my point. Disagree all you will.

The same poll with Dubois would be a landslide win for Dubois. The same poll with Tkachuk would be a landslide win for Tkachuk.

Completely different without them in it (and the guy who is winning right now, I don't see the Flames at all interested in).

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

I am very surprised with the amount of love Brown gets. We are talking about 6th overall here, he shouldn't be in that conversation IMO.

I think some of you are valuing his massive size WAY too much.

He scored about the same number of points as Nylander. Perhaps you are undervaluing his skill level? He isn't being talked about as a potential top 5 pick just because he's tall. He can shoot, pass, and protect the puck like an NHLer.

I'm not convinced he's in our top 6 but he's definitely one of the players that has to be in the conversation. He's much more likely to be the Flames pick than a guy like Keller IMO.

[Vinny01]

If s team like the Oilers see a group at 4-9 that they like then trading up shouldn't be difficult considering we have 3 second rounders. Personally I am really hoping we can get one of Tkachuk or Dubios they are the players that fit our needs the most outside the top 3

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Burke said there was a ledge at 8 before the draft lottery so it sounds a little like posturing to the fans but maybe Burke and Treliving have different opinions. Treliving is the guy that makes the call

I don't think their opinion necessarily disagrees. Could be that there's a huge ledge after #8 for both of them. For Treliving there's a smaller ledge at 6, a smaller one after 7 and then a big one after 8.

[Jacks]

Is Keller going the college route?

Not crazy about having to wait 3-4 years and then running the risk of the player going UFA.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

He scored about the same number of points as Nylander. Perhaps you are undervaluing his skill level? He isn't being talked about as a potential top 5 pick just because he's tall. He can shoot, pass, and protect the puck like an NHLer.

I'm not convinced he's in our top 6 but he's definitely one of the players that has to be in the conversation. He's much more likely to be the Flames pick than a guy like Keller IMO.

To be fair Nylander played on a much worse team and led his team in scoring by 14 points (also 6 goals and 6 assists in 6 playoff games). Brown didn't even lead his team in points (no goals, 6 assists in 5 playoff games).

I do think Nylander's offensive production is disappointing for what he is, though.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

The fact that this thread exists just speaks to my point. Disagree all you will.

The same poll with Dubois would be a landslide win for Dubois. The same poll with Tkachuk would be a landslide win for Tkachuk.

Completely different without them in it (and the guy who is winning right now, I don't see the Flames at all interested in).

One would have thought you would be ecstatic with the sixth pick after you had illusions of the Flames picking ninth, pre lottery. Be happy...don't worry.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by timbit

One would have thought you would be ecstatic with the sixth pick after you had illusions of the Flames picking ninth, pre lottery. Be happy...don't worry.

again people seem to be completely misinterpreting what I mean by "disappointing".

[oldschoolcalgary]

though college UFA is happening a little more now than it has in the past, i'd be curious to see how often... stills doesn't seem like there's been much more than 10 +/- since a guy like Shultz...

of course it sucks if your team happens to be one of the spurned....

[Poe969]

I think there's a huge risk to drafting Keller, the whole college rule that allows a kid to become a UFA just isn't worth it. I hope another team drafts him and in 3 years or whatever, the Flames sign him and it only costs their second rounder. That's such a stupid rule.

[Ashasx]

I think the college route is less of a concern for somebody picked in the top 10.

If they're what they're supposed to be, they shouldn't be there all 4 years anyway.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

The fact that this thread exists just speaks to my point. Disagree all you will.

The same poll with Dubois would be a landslide win for Dubois. The same poll with Tkachuk would be a landslide win for Tkachuk.

Completely different without them in it (and the guy who is winning right now, I don't see the Flames at all interested in).

The poll is designed with the assumption that Tkachuk/Dubois are gone because that's the interesting question for fans. Meanwhile in reality we can't assume Tkachuk/Dubois are gone because that's nowhere near guaranteed to happen. Even if EDM and VAN stay in those spots I don't think we can guarantee Tkachuk/Dubois both being gone. But I think both teams may have trade down scenarios they are looking at.

There is a false consensus that some fans are starting to buy into. Let's look at the actual consensus.
-Tkachuk ranked top 5 by 9/10 scouts by Mackenzie. If anybody is a near consensus top 5 pick it would be him
-Dubois ranked top 5 by only 3-4 of the 10 scouts that Mackenzie talked to. He's far from a consensus top 5 pick. VAN fans/media do think he's in their top 5 though which may be true
-Other players believed to be top 5 on scouts list include Brown, Juolevi (Mackenzie had 1 scout who had him top 5), Chychrun (Mackenzie had 1 scout who had him top 4), Fabbro (Mackenzie had 1 scout who had him top 5). Pronman has Keller top 5 although I doubt any team would take a chance on him that high. Wouldn't surprise me if Nylander was top 5 for a team that emphasizes pure skill above all other attributes.

Basically what this shows us is that there isn't a consensus top 5. Both VAN and EDM have needs on defense. VAN has a longterm need for a #1 centre. Assuming the Flames have no chance at Tkachuk/Dubois is very presumptuous IMO. One of them may still be there at #6. The Flames could trade up with EDM and certainly have the assets to do so.

Bingo is assuming Tkachuk/Dubois are gone for the purposes of this poll simply because having Tkachuk/Dubois available would make the poll uninteresting. That does not mean pick #6 has to be disappointing.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Went with Brown. Don't like any of the defensemen available and don't see the upside people are talking about when it comes to these guys. Think Brown has the greatest potential to turn into an impact player after the top three. Wouldn't be surprised to see Vancouver take him in front of us. They really need the size and skill, probably more than us. It doesn't matter who they take, the guy is a long ways off will be a few years away.