2016 NHL Draft

[Hackey]

I think most people would be fine if we ended up with Dubois or Tkachuk. After that I think there is far less consensus. Almost every ranking has those top 5 forwards in the top 5-6. That 6-7 and onward every list starts to deviate a lot more. I have faith that things will work out though.

[iloveicedhockey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Going in ... for sure.

but if they can't work something out with Edmonton, then the Oilers select a ringette player by mistake (damn Carrie could have been a guy or a girl), leaving the Canucks to take Tkachuk

Then the Habs call Calgary.

Happens all the time.

If Dubois is there at 6, I'd like to think we'd take him. Based on what I've read of Benning, they take Dubois over tkachuk as well.

I mean you never know, but Either way, our first round pick will be one of our top, most interesting prospects so I'm good.

[1qqaaz]

Personally, I have almost no faith that things will turn out well the Flames.

Edmonton is in a tough situations. If they take one of Dubois or Tkachuk, people in their fanbase will be upset as it doesn't help the defense situation. If they take Chychrun or the other D, their fanbase will be upset for not maximizing the value of the pick. It seems quite likely that the pick will be traded. And if the pick is traded, the new team will pick one of Dubois or Tkachuk. My worst fear is that the Oilers trade that pick as part of the package for Barrie. If so, poor Iginla/Avalanche fans.

In my opinion:
-Chance that Edmonton trades the pick, and the new team picks one of Dubois or Tkachuk: 40%
-Chance the Oilers pick Chychrun: 30%
-Chance the Oilers pick Tkachuk:15%
-Chance the Oilers pick Dubois: 15%

And I know there are reports that the Canucks will take one of the defensemen if they feel on of them can be a top guy. But I'm skeptical. Dubois/Tkachuk are the best players at that spot, and I doubt the Canucks are incompetent enough to pick off the board.

In my pessimistic opinion:
-Chance the Canucks pick Dubois if available: 50%
-Chance the Canucks pick Tkachuk if available: 30%
-Chance the Canucks pick someone else: 20%

With the way things have gone for the Flames this year, I would be shocked if one of Dubois or Tkachuk fell to us at 6. We'll probably take one of Nylander, Keller, Brown, Chychrun, Juolevi, or Sergachev, and we'll have to live with it. There's a strong chance the some of the players taken 7th to 12th will be better than whoever we pick at 6th. It's just that close. But hindsight will be 20/20.

[Caged Great]

Assuming 1-5 goes as expected (Dubois/Tkachuk gone)

then the Flames will have a choice between raw skill with slightly undersized players in Nylander, Jost, and Keller or bigger players with some warts in Brown, Chychrun, Sergachev, and Juolevi.

Our pick would large be determined on what the team is placing emphasis on. I still think skill wins out as size can be figured out in other ways.

[iloveicedhockey]

Completely agree, small chance of tkachuk, no chance of Dubois. This is where the scouts earn their coin, they won't have the luxury of taking what's left from a group, they have to pick first from the 6-15 ish group.

[Rick M.]

There are several attractive players in the top dozen or so picks, even if they might not be sure bets. Too bad we couldn't acquire a second pick to go with #6, then we might be able to pick up a guy like Brown as well as a small skilled guy Nylander/Jost/Keller.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

If anybody wants to read the Pronman write ups most of them can be found here

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...072135&page=34

He definitely has a few biases that are different than the Flames likely will. He ignores Keller's size which I think most NHL teams will not be doing. And he assumes forwards are more valuable overall than defensemen, a sentiment that I think Treliving in particular would disagree with. Still interesting to read his takes although I think his rankings have to be adjusted knowing his biases.

[cofias]

Starting to come around in a major way to the idea of drafting Keller, might actually prefer him over Nylander and Tkachuk at this point, as far as forwards are concerned.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

He ignores Keller's size

No,

"His size and physical game limitations are obvious issues, but there is a lot to like in his game other than that."

He just thinks Kellers overall package outweighs his size.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

No,

"His size and physical game limitations are obvious issues, but there is a lot to like in his game other than that."

He just thinks Kellers overall package outweighs his size.

Well IMO he notes that Keller's size could be a limitation but does not factor that in to his rankings. Which is basically ignoring it as far as I'm concerned.

You must love Pronman eh? Similar biases to your own.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Here's Canucks fans on Pronman and the size issues:

"Pronman bugs me. His lists are heavily weighted towards small/skill players. He doesn't take into consideration which players will make a bigger impact when it matters and I think that gets overlooked by a lot of people"

"Yeah, I think Pronman takes the "smaller players are underrated" thing too far sometimes. I believe I read an article that showed that players over 6ft tall were typically better picks in the 1st round and the small/skill players were actually better value picks outside of the 1st round. I'll try to dig it up if I can, I forgot how large of a sample size they used and what metrics they used to define "successful" picks."

"Yeah. Pronman has a notorious adoration for the flashy little waterbug types. Which is fine i guess if that's his philosophy, but personally i think he often takes it way too far. Tends to completely overlook the barriers to success that inherently come along with major size disadvantage and lack of physical engagement."

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well IMO he notes that Keller's size could be a limitation but does not factor that in to his rankings. Which is basically ignoring it as far as I'm concerned.

You must love Pronman eh? Similar biases to your own.

Speaking of biases...Again, it's not ignoring size: it's saying his skill level is elite and washes out size concerns.

Is gaudreau's height an issue? If we redrafted his year, where do you think Johnny would get picked. Size is not everything: each player is evaluated on the entire package

[ignite09]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

Speaking of biases...Again, it's not ignoring size: it's saying his skill level is elite and washes out size concerns.

Is gaudreau's height an issue? If we redrafted his year, where do you think Johnny would get picked. Size is not everything: each player is evaluated on the entire package

Is Keller as good as Gaudreau? I don't YouTube scout at all, and pretty much get all my prospect info from this site. Some of you seem to be selling Keller as the next Kane/JH, are the pro scouts in agreement with you?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

Speaking of biases...Again, it's not ignoring size: it's saying his skill level is elite and washes out size concerns.

Is gaudreau's height an issue? If we redrafted his year, where do you think Johnny would get picked. Size is not everything: each player is evaluated on the entire package

Johnny is a very rare and special player who has basically completely eliminated his size concerns because he's so quick, shifty, agile and elusive that it's impossible impossible to hit him, contain him, etc. I don't think Keller is quite as his level in terms of elusiveness. Certainly there's no guarantee that Keller is able to avoid checks as well as Gaudreau does.

The biggest difference between them though is that Johnny plays the wing which has the least defensive responsibilities in the defensive zone. Keller plays centre which has more defensive responsibilities in the defensive zone. If he continues to play centre it means he'll have to cover forwards down low along with the defenseman. So he'll have to try to prevent big, strong teams like ANA and LA from cycling. Can you imagine Keller checking Lucic, Kopitar, Getzlaf, Perry, etc? Those types of players will be able to shove him away with one arm and carry on their cycle game unhindered. Perhaps this would be less of an issue if the Flames had a huge, mobile and strong defense like Tampa but our defenseman struggle a bit to contain the cycle as it is. IMO this limits Keller's upside at the centre position. I'm sure most NHL scouts and GMs feel exactly the same way.

There's less concern about Keller in the offensive zone, that's where he makes magic happen. There's a lot of concern about how he'll match up in the defensive zone. Scouts and GMs aren't ignoring the latter part of the equation. Certainly the Flames management won't be ignoring that since the Pacific contains many tough match ups. It means that Keller as a centre will have to be a bit defensively sheltered. You can't shelter your #1 centre. Therefore IMO he has #2 centre upside. IMO you aren't taking him top 8 when there are 1st line calibre forwards and potential top pairing defensemen available.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

You must love Pronman eh? Similar biases to your own.

I don't love any single scout's opinion. They all have something useful to reveal.

I do think it's unsurprising Pronman has Keller at 4th, because Pronman values skill and IQ, like I do.

As for why I value Skill and IQ? Because the more the Flames have progressed towards valuing skill and IQ, the better-and-better our drafting has gotten. This is what Tod Button had to say in 2012:

Originally Posted by Tod Button

“We began to change what we were looking for even before that,” said Button, the club’s amateur scouting director. “I know a lot of people give (former GM) Darryl (Sutter) a lot of grief but not for his hockey sense, for the way he treated people. But he recognized after 2006 the game was changing. From when we took Mikael Backlund, it’s been progressing.”


“You can’t always take the same type of player,” Button said. “But it’s more of a priority than taking a big guy who can skate.”

“We’ve embraced the strategy and how we’re doing things, and there’s a thread around hockey sense and character and skill, moreso than skating and size.”

“Hockey sense allows a guy with less of a skill-set in a different area to still succeed,”

(Source)

I would be very, very disapointed if our Amateur Scouting under Burkleving suddenly decided to take a step backwards when finally it was starting to takie the gradual step forward that have been missing.

Doesn't mean I can't live with Tkachuk or Brown or anybody else, but only if their skill / hockey sense / character are line with the philosophies they've been cultivating since the Backlund draft that Button constantly points to. I don't think they should weigh size ahead of hockey sense and skill, only use it as a relative tiebreaker. Personally I see Dubois' size as a relative tiebreaker over Keller, but I don't see Tkachuk's skill/IQ at the same level as the other two, and apparently neither does Pronman. I do see Tkachuk's size as a tiebreaker over Nylander though. As Pronman appears to. I also think the margin between 4 thru 14 in this draft is razor thin, so I wouldn't be surprised if there are teams that have Dubois way down at 14. How the order should go is not full of easy choices.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by ignite09

Is Keller as good as Gaudreau? I don't YouTube scout at all, and pretty much get all my prospect info from this site. Some of you seem to be selling Keller as the next Kane/JH, are the pro scouts in agreement with you?

guys like Gaudreau, Kane, panarin, kucherov are brought up to combat the notion that you have to be x height to even succeed in the NHL.

small players bust... but big players also bust.... there is no correlation between size and success in the NHL. Just look at the list of top 30 scorers in the NHL this past season...if the average NHL player is 6'1", the dispersal of guys over that and under that is pretty equal (excluding dmen, where size is obviously an advantage).

As for Keller, well he beat out Matthews scoring record for the US dev squad and he's almost a full year younger than Tkachuk... skill wise and compete wise, the kid is elite. If he were 6'3" he'd probably be in the conversation for top 3 this year

but there is no gaurantees for any player outside the top 3 (and even they could not reach expectations)

I don't think calgary is looking for a #1 center; they have one in Monahan... They are looking for someone to pair with bennett to create two legit scoring lines. I have no concern about a player shifting from center to wing - it happens all the time in the NHL.

And Gaudreau is not the exception; there are a lot of good 5'11" players in the league and Keller could still potentially crack the 6'0" mark considering his age.

[Rick M.]

I suspect that the Flames would not be planning to play Keller at centre, if they were to take him. His playmaking ability could transfer to the wing, in the same way as Gaudreau's does. This is not unusual in Flames history: think of converted centre Hakan Loob playing on Nieuwendyk's right wing. I have no idea whether Treliving would be interested in Keller, however.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

think of converted centre Hakan Loob playing on Nieuwendyk's right wing.

So.. Ferland-Jankowski-Keller?

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

So.. Ferland-Jankowski-Keller?

You never know!

[SuperMatt18]

What I don't get is people seem to be discounting Brown because of his size. Assuming that since he is big he must be a skill less plug.

The guy is talented and has great vision, hands, and hockey IQ while still being a decent skater.

The scouting reports don't discount Brown on any of those factors at all, the criticism of him is usually aimed towards his drive and work ethic.

When I watch some tape I do have some issues with him being a little floaty on the ice at times and not giving it 100% but then you see how dominating he can be when he puts it all together (U-18 vs Canada) and some of the concerns are washed away.

The Keller vs Brown comparisons always come down to size vs skill, which IMO is unfair since Brown is actually very skilled. The conversation for those two is actually size vs consistency/work ethic and really I'm not sure you can go wrong either way.

Would actually love to find a way to get both by trading back from 6 and using our assets to get two picks in the 10-14 range. Keller - Brown - Bennett as a line, sign me up.