2016 NHL Draft - Page 193 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Flames Draft Watcher · 05-13-2016, 05:27 PM

The Draft Analyst does a mock draft. The player descriptions are actually quite nice so I'd recommend giving it a read

http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/mock-.../2016-may-1st/

Calgary ends up with Tkachuk after EDM at #4 takes Chychrun.

saXon · 05-13-2016, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

The Draft Analyst does a mock draft. The player descriptions are actually quite nice so I'd recommend giving it a read

http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/mock-.../2016-may-1st/

Calgary ends up with Tkachuk after EDM at #4 takes Chychrun.

I swear every draft analysis over the last 3 years has had the Oilers taking a Dman. Other than Nurse, who was a consensus top 7 at the time....it never happens.

edslunch · 05-13-2016, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I still don't think Gaudreau, Drouin or Kucherov are worth as much as a franchise centre or a top pairing d-man. But yes, those are more attractive players overall.

I used Kessel and Eberle because those guys are good examples of goal scoring wingers who got paid and then hurt their teams ability to compete because of how much of the cap they take up. I've thought similarly in the past about the deals that Kovalchuk signed, Nash had in CBJ, Heatley, etc. A lot of times the best goal scoring wingers get paid huge and in a cap system the amount you have to pay them ends up being more than how much they actually drive your team.

My point is that it is easier to be a contender if you have elite centres and elite defensemen. And in a cap system there's only so much money to go around so spending a ton on wingers limits your ability to pay your goalies, centres and defensemen. I think history has shown that elite wingers rarely lead their teams anywhere. Look at the top goal scoring wingers of the last decade and add up how many cups they have. It's pretty telling. Then do the same for franchise centres and franchise d-men and its obvious what type of player you should prioritize in the cap system.

Not everybody will agree. Goal scoring is sexy. Goal scoring wingers are essential in pools but IMO less essential for actually contending for a cup. It's just my philosophy after I've watched the various 40-50 goal scorers struggle to lead their teams anywhere over the last 20 years of watching hockey. Heck here we had Iginla score 50 one year where we missed the playoffs IIRC. We struggled to compete without a franchise centre and without a franchise dman.

I get your point about scoring wingers generally not being worth as much as centres or D but the three examples you quote here don't fit that for me. They are the straws that stir the drink (Drouin hasn't proved that just yet but shows glimpses) and are worth every bit as much as a C or D. Gaudreau in particular is one of the most dynamic players in the league and is both a playmaker and goal scorer. Sure he's not as complete a 200 ft player as we would like but he makes up for it.

I agree with you about other wingers who are 'just' finishers, they are more replaceable.

Poe969 · 05-13-2016, 05:55 PM

My hope for the draft is to either get #3 pick or get Dubois and make a trade for another first and get Gauthier. For D the one I really want is Stanley, there aren't too many other guys I really really want.

Erratik · 05-13-2016, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The more I look at this draft the more I feel like 6 to about 15 is pretty close in terms of quality (assuming Tkachuk and Dubois are gone at 6) and we should try to get two picks in the top 15.

Means you could get two of Jost, Keller, Brown, Mcleod, Sergachev, Chychrun, Fabbro, Bean, or Juolevi.

This team has lots of depth prospects and a new infusion of high end talent would really round out the prospect base.

We could trade 6 + 95 to Carolina for 13 & 21. Carolina looks to move up to get one of the big 3 defensemen or Nylander.

Then trade 21 and 65 for Minnesota's pick at 15, Minnesota doesn't have a 2nd or 3rd rounder currently so it makes sense for them.

The trades tend to work using the draft value chart (http://statsportsconsulting.com/main...Draftchart.pdf).

Would leave the Flames with 13, 15, 35, 53, 55 in the first two rounds, plus they would still have ammo to move back up from 15 into the 9/10/11 range if they preferred a guy at that number (technically 15 + 53 should be able to get you into the 10/11 range).

I think I like what you are suggesting, but it might cost a bit more than you anticipate. If I am Carolina, I want a 2nd along with 6 OA to give up 13+21, the Dallas pick should work there. I also think you probably need to give Minny 21 and 53(instead of 65), to get 15.

So we would be trading 6+53+55 for 13+15. I would probably be fine with that if Dubois and Tkachuk are gone at 6.

Hackey · 05-13-2016, 07:00 PM

Oilers drafting a dman would definitely help us out. I'm a bit skeptical it will happen though.

Flames Draft Watcher · 05-13-2016, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hackey

Oilers drafting a dman would definitely help us out. I'm a bit skeptical it will happen though.

Well if Chiarelli spends the next month and a half looking for a dman and can't get what they need through trade they may feel forced to draft one. I'm skeptical they'd pick one at #4 but I think them trading down a few spots is a very real possibility, Chiarelli has admitted they are looking into it.

Hackey · 05-13-2016, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

The Draft Analyst does a mock draft. The player descriptions are actually quite nice so I'd recommend giving it a read

http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/mock-.../2016-may-1st/

Calgary ends up with Tkachuk after EDM at #4 takes Chychrun.

Winnipeg already has a pretty stacked prospect base and then you go and add Laine and Bean. Not to mention a good mix of talented vets and young players. They could get good fast.

Hackey · 05-13-2016, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well if Chiarelli spends the next month and a half looking for a dman and can't get what they need through trade they may feel forced to draft one. I'm skeptical they'd pick one at #4 but I think them trading down a few spots is a very real possibility, Chiarelli has admitted they are looking into it.

Ya I'm sure they are going to exhaust every possibility first. Drafting a dman at 4 doesn't seem ideal. Hopefully it comes down to them having to make that choice and they do though.

Erick Estrada · 05-13-2016, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hackey

Winnipeg already has a pretty stacked prospect base and then you go and add Laine and Bean. Not to mention a good mix of talented vets and young players. They could get good fast.

Good drafting team that values skill above all else and winning the draft lottery never hurts as this draft should set them up for some long term success. In the future it's going to be a matter of how much they are able to commit to keep the team together.

ComixZone · 05-13-2016, 08:17 PM

Yeah Winnipeg has a lot going for them.

Hellebuyck in net. Trouba and Byfuglien on the back-end, Laine and Wheeler on the right side. Their centre depth isn't their strength, but it's not bad.

I imagine the Jets will be a mainstay in the playoffs for a long time.

Samonadreau · 05-13-2016, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saXon

I swear every draft analysis over the last 3 years has had the Oilers taking a Dman. Other than Nurse, who was a consensus top 7 at the time....it never happens.

Show me a mock that had them take anyone but McDavid after the lottery last year.

JJ1532 · 05-13-2016, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Show me a mock that had them take anyone but McDavid after the lottery last year.

Yep and barring some crazy scenario in 2014 where Ekblad fell to them at 3, they were always going to take a forward, wether it was Reinhart, Bennett or Draisaitl.

This represents an excellent chance for them to take a blue chip defenceman and get him in the system. Yes, it wouldn't be the flashy pick and yes, the guy they take probably won't be able to step in right away, but I honestly think it would be the right thing for them to do and it would be a sign that the brain trust is starting to learn its lessons.

There are a lot of variances of opinion on Chychrun, Juolevi and Sergechev, but they'll all likely turn into decent NHl players, so I don't see them hurting themselves by passing on Dubois or Tkachuk and taking a d man. This summer marks a potential turning point for their franchise I think. Deal Eberle, RNH and Yakupov(and ignore the return, its irrelevant at this point), have a strong draft and I think they'll have actually taken some steps forward.

dissentowner · 05-13-2016, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

The Draft Analyst does a mock draft. The player descriptions are actually quite nice so I'd recommend giving it a read

http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/mock-.../2016-may-1st/

Calgary ends up with Tkachuk after EDM at #4 takes Chychrun.

I would be ecstatic with that. We get a very good winger while the Grease get the D man I think will bust.

Yoho · 05-13-2016, 09:27 PM

N/m

Bingo · 05-14-2016, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

If Montreal want Dubois, they trade with Edmonton. Guaranteed their guy. Unless there's someone itching to get nylander, perhaps tkachuk (if available) or their choice of the d guys, we're picking at 6.

Going in ... for sure.

but if they can't work something out with Edmonton, then the Oilers select a ringette player by mistake (damn Carrie could have been a guy or a girl), leaving the Canucks to take Tkachuk

Then the Habs call Calgary.

Happens all the time.

Bingo · 05-14-2016, 08:33 AM

First off I've really enjoyed reading this every day.

Amazing how much you can a) get a better read on players you don't know and b) change your mind on players when you read debate on a daily basis.

And one thing is for sure, there are going to be a lot of pissed off people on that Friday night. If they take Nylander people are going to snap. A defenseman .... snap. Brown ... boom.

Personally I see value in all of these players, and I'm not going to pretend I know why the player they selected was selected, because I just don't see Treliving as all that simple, and I think his coaching process is proving that out.

If they take Brown I don't think it's "see! they just want big lumbering guys" for example.

Really up in the air. Feel bad for Toronto and Jets fans knowing what they're drafting (sarcasm)

dammage79 · 05-14-2016, 08:44 AM

This has been the most wide open draft in recent years. Seriously, picks #4 to roughly #14 or #15 can all go at any time. If there's ever a draft where teams can flip the table on the media concensus and send everyone into a speculative frenzy it's this one.

It's also crazy that one tournament has already flipped the table so to speak launching 3 or 4 players up the rankings in a lot of publications really speaks to how wide open it is after the big 3. There a couple safe bets like Tkachuk and Dubois going in the top 6 but then it's a crap shoot. Total, utter crap shoot.

Hackey · 05-14-2016, 09:20 AM

Which sucks that we kind of miss out on the 5 more consensus players but I guess were lucky we get first dibs on the more up in the air group. Hopefully we can nail it. We know there are going to be some quality players in the group just need to make sure we hit on one of them.

Enoch Root · 05-14-2016, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hackey

Which sucks that we kind of miss out on the 5 more consensus players but I guess were lucky we get first dibs on the more up in the air group. Hopefully we can nail it. We know there are going to be some quality players in the group just need to make sure we hit on one of them.

If we were drafting 5th, there would be people lamenting that we're missing out on the top 4.

If we were drafting 7th, they'd be lamenting the top 6