2015/2016 Trade Speculation and Rumors v2

[dammage79]

I'm keen on Halak. Only pause for concern is his health over the course of a season.

[Toonage]

Starting to wonder if the Flames really do end up over paying for Reimer and picking up a guy like Kuemper. Have to think after last night that Dallas has eyes on Reimer now as well. Not what I was hoping for but might be the best they can do without breaking the bank or mortgaging the future somewhat.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Starting to wonder if the Flames really do end up over paying for Reimer and picking up a guy like Kuemper. Have to think after last night that Dallas has eyes on Reimer now as well. Not what I was hoping for but might be the best they can do without breaking the bank or mortgaging the future somewhat.

They will not need to overpay for him at all. The teams with starting jobs available are Calgary and Toronto. I don't think he goes back to Toronto, so his options are Calgary as a starter or a situation where the goalie starts are by committee.

[SuperMatt18]

Was kind of bored last night during that brutal game 7 and started doing some research on comparing the potential goalies available.

Looked at the past 3 seasons and compared their 5v5 save percentages.

Really with this graph you would want the goalie to be in the top right hand corner. The vertical axis looks at save percentage adjusted for the shot quality give up by the team, and horizontal axis is looking at the unadjusted save percentage.

It's funny because you have guys like Pickard, Korpisalo, Murray, & Hammond ahead of the pack but in very small sample sizes.

Then you have a group of 3 goalies that stand out in Mrazek, Elliott, and Bishop but IMO those goalies are going to be the hardest to acquire.

After that though you have a huge group of goalies that tend to be fairly equal in their save percentage performance. Allen, Neuvirth, Fleury, Reimer, Andersen, & Vasilevskiy all fall into a similar category of performance and are very close to one another.

Then below them you have guys like Hiller, Ramo, Howard, and Kuemper who would be poor options (as we already know with Hiller & Ramo).

For me personally I think the best case scenario would be to trade some of our 2nd round currency for Pickard and then sign Reimer as a UFA. Would give us a pretty good goalie tandem for next season.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Robbob

They will not need to overpay for him at all. The teams with starting jobs available are Calgary and Toronto. I don't think he goes back to Toronto, so his options are Calgary as a starter or a situation where the goalie starts are by committee.

I think Dallas will have their eyes on him as well. Though I might be jumping the gun based on last night.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Toonage

I think Dallas will have their eyes on him as well. Though I might be jumping the gun based on last night.

The problem with Dallas is they have over 10 million tied up with the current goalies. Both have a negative value with those contract as they are expensive and have term (Two more years).

[bax]

Originally Posted by Atodaso

You are probably right. Hall in place of Yakupov makes more sense for Montreal, if they were to include their 9th OA pick.

This is exactly why I don't offer up trade proposals that often.

To be fair, there was no way Calgary would get Hamilton for picks. Trades are weird.

Fair enough, it's all about context though.

Subban is locked up long term and Hamilton didn't have a contract and was facing the threat of an offer sheet.

Apples and Oranges

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Starting to wonder if the Flames really do end up over paying for Reimer and picking up a guy like Kuemper. Have to think after last night that Dallas has eyes on Reimer now as well. Not what I was hoping for but might be the best they can do without breaking the bank or mortgaging the future somewhat.

Its all well and good Dallas wanting to be in for a goalie or 2, but to do that, they have to get rid of Lehtonen and Niemi first. Now, they could trade them, but then who is going to want to pick up either of them given their resepctive cap hits and their garbage showings this season? Nobody will touch either player with a barge pole imo. The other option is to buy them out, but that would still leave a fair bit of salary on the books for 4 years instead of 2. Thats not a great option either.

We are in a position to make a run at Reimer right now. Jim Nill would have to pull off all kinds of wizardry to join the goalie market. Until he does, I wouldn't worry about us having competition for Reimer, if that is indeed the guy we are after.

[Toonage]

Robbob & JJ1532 - both good points re: the cost associated with Dallas' goalies. Buyout might be too unattractive on either for Dallas management.

[SuperMatt18]

Another thing I wanted to look at was team save percentage normalized for the amount of scoring chances a team gives up. Not a perfect science since a scoring chance doesn't always end up as a shot on net but overall you would think that it would be a pretty good correlation.

So here I took a look at the amount of scoring chances a team gave up over a 4 year period, and then the total goals against for that same time period. Also included the team save percentage over that same time.

What I then did is took a percentage of scoring chances against that turned into goals against for each team.

You would think that the team that has the lowest percentage of scoring chances turned into goals would have better goaltending - and for the most part there are no surprises.

Boston, L.A. , New York Rangers, Montreal, and Tampa Bay all turn up in the top - this is not surprising. However 2 teams in the top 7 are somewhat surprising and they are Toronto and Colorado.

Those two teams have given up a much larger quantity of scoring chances against than the other teams in the top 7 and their goalies have kept them in the game.

So even though the goalie stats don't look amazing at first glance (Reimer & Bernier in Toronto - Gigure, Pickard, Varlamov, Berra in Colorado), the goalies of those teams have actually been saving an elite number of scoring chances against when compared to the other elite goalies/teams.

Not surprising but over those same 4 years the Flames have given up a large amount of scoring chances, but have also not had the goaltending to make up for it.

[Flame19,289]

How realistic would it be to pry Neuvirth out of Philly?

He looked great in the 1st round, but it seems like Mason is still the go-to guy. The Flyers organization also has Anthony Stolarz knocking on the door in Lehigh Valley and they just signed Alex Lyon out of Yale.

Neuvirth is UFA after this season, so I wouldn't want to give away the farm to get him. Perhaps the Flyers are also planning to hold onto both goaltenders with the option of being able to trade one at next year's trade deadline

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Was kind of bored last night during that brutal game 7 and started doing some research on comparing the potential goalies available.

Looked at the past 3 seasons and compared their 5v5 save percentages.

Really with this graph you would want the goalie to be in the top right hand corner. The vertical axis looks at save percentage adjusted for the shot quality give up by the team, and horizontal axis is looking at the unadjusted save percentage.

It's funny because you have guys like Pickard, Korpisalo, Murray, & Hammond ahead of the pack but in very small sample sizes.

Then you have a group of 3 goalies that stand out in Mrazek, Elliott, and Bishop but IMO those goalies are going to be the hardest to acquire.

After that though you have a huge group of goalies that tend to be fairly equal in their save percentage performance. Allen, Neuvirth, Fleury, Reimer, Andersen, & Vasilevskiy all fall into a similar category of performance and are very close to one another.

Then below them you have guys like Hiller, Ramo, Howard, and Kuemper who would be poor options (as we already know with Hiller & Ramo).

For me personally I think the best case scenario would be to trade some of our 2nd round currency for Pickard and then sign Reimer as a UFA. Would give us a pretty good goalie tandem for next season.

Worth 2x thanks!

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Was kind of bored last night during that brutal game 7 and started doing some research on comparing the potential goalies available.

Looked at the past 3 seasons and compared their 5v5 save percentages.

Really with this graph you would want the goalie to be in the top right hand corner. The vertical axis looks at save percentage adjusted for the shot quality give up by the team, and horizontal axis is looking at the unadjusted save percentage.

It's funny because you have guys like Pickard, Korpisalo, Murray, & Hammond ahead of the pack but in very small sample sizes.

Then you have a group of 3 goalies that stand out in Mrazek, Elliott, and Bishop but IMO those goalies are going to be the hardest to acquire.

After that though you have a huge group of goalies that tend to be fairly equal in their save percentage performance. Allen, Neuvirth, Fleury, Reimer, Andersen, & Vasilevskiy all fall into a similar category of performance and are very close to one another.

Then below them you have guys like Hiller, Ramo, Howard, and Kuemper who would be poor options (as we already know with Hiller & Ramo).

For me personally I think the best case scenario would be to trade some of our 2nd round currency for Pickard and then sign Reimer as a UFA. Would give us a pretty good goalie tandem for next season.

That chart just makes me hope even more that BT pulls another "Dougie Hamilton" type rabbit out of the hat in regards to Mrazek.

Highly unlikely I know, but he is an RFA who needs a big raise and they already have Howard making big money and he will be tough to unload IMO.

[IgiTang]

Avs are very high on Pickard. I think your have better luck getting Varlamov.. But he ain't the answer.

Love the graph. If I'm reading it right, I would take a hard swing at Korpisalo as a up and coming backup and I would then look at ... I hate to say it, Reimer as a stop gap until Korpisalo is ready for full-time duties.

[Knut]

What it does show me is that I am willing to take MA Fleury than i was before

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Flame19,289

How realistic would it be to pry Neuvirth out of Philly?

He looked great in the 1st round, but it seems like Mason is still the go-to guy. The Flyers organization also has Anthony Stolarz knocking on the door in Lehigh Valley and they just signed Alex Lyon out of Yale.

Neuvirth is UFA after this season, so I wouldn't want to give away the farm to get him. Perhaps the Flyers are also planning to hold onto both goaltenders with the option of being able to trade one at next year's trade deadline

Friedman thought he was UFA this summer and linked him to Calgary. If the Flyers are sold on Mason (they shouldn't be) then yes he could be had. I think he stays in Philly for that last year though.

[OutOfTheCube]

Nobody talking about Chad Johnson? He was actually pretty good for our below average Sabres team this last season. Maybe not a good starter option but definitely better than Ramo.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Was kind of bored last night during that brutal game 7 and started doing some research on comparing the potential goalies available.

Looked at the past 3 seasons and compared their 5v5 save percentages.

Really with this graph you would want the goalie to be in the top right hand corner. The vertical axis looks at save percentage adjusted for the shot quality give up by the team, and horizontal axis is looking at the unadjusted save percentage

Thanks for putting this together.

As you mentioned, you want a goalie towards top right, on the ice you want him as far right as possible.

When I see a chart like this, it would be nice to see a line with slope of 1, and then goalies that lie above / to the left show adjusted save percentage being better than actual, so basically penalized by poor team play.

I will add that I personally believe that the idea that sv% is the be all, end all indicator is flawed.

Also whenever people adjust for shot quality, the proxy that is usually used because it is all that is available is shot location, which does not account for situation. (Ex. Is the shot from 6 inches out being stuffed into a goalie's pad or is it a cross crease tap in. Example 2 - in the slot do you have Chris Pronger tying you up and beating the crap out of you or have the Oilers D given you a clear path to the net.)

There are so many examples from the past decade, Dubnyk in Edm vs Minnesota, Mike Smith in Phoenix, Kipper playing under Keenan vs Sutter, etc.

At any rate, I think that if you put Hitchcock or Tippett behind the Flames bench, Ramo slides up and right. As goalies like Pickard get a larger sample size, they will move down and left.

If Treliving does his job, and gets a coach that can make the team play proper defence, for a full season, whatever goalie he puts in place will look like an upgrade on this year.

So long story short I hope they don't over pay for a goalie like Reimer

[Dr. Doom]

Cool chart!

This is why if you ask a lot of Avs fans they want Pickard given the runway in Colorado.
He’s exactly the type of “diamond in the rough” that Conroy has been referring to IMO.

It will be interesting to see how Colorado handles it in the off-season.
There has been some rumblings of Varlamov being moved, but there seems to be loyalty there.
And nobody has really talked to the cost of Pickard either. But unlike Murray they didn’t give him the sample size/situations required to up his value in the same way.

Out of all the names out there I would be most delighted if we could acquire Pickard. As a starter…

[Jason14h]

When Pitt's wins the cup behind Murray I imagine we can move a contract and a 2nd for Fleury!