2016 NHL Draft

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by timbit

I understand your position.

It is my belief that Keller is a special player....elite skater with elite vision and very good stick skills. He plays with great energy and excels in tight spaces/ areas.

In my opinion, his superior attributes and skills trump his current lack of size.
See him as a probable and very projectable #1 C in the NHL.

High end speed , vision , and character can never be underestimated in today's NHL.
Size would be a bonus, but does very little to dissuade me.

Faster Joe Pavelski?

4-7 it is.

I'd be happy if Keller is picked 4-5. I don't hate Keller but I believe we have better options.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by timbit

I understand your position.

It is my belief that Keller is a special player....elite skater with elite vision and very good stick skills. He plays with great energy and excels in tight spaces/ areas.

In my opinion, his superior attributes and skills trump his current lack of size.
See him as a probable and very projectable #1 C in the NHL.

High end speed , vision , and character can never be underestimated in today's NHL.
Size would be a bonus, but does very little to dissuade me.

Faster Joe Pavelski?

4-7 it is.

Interestingly, two 5' 11" players are leading the playoffs in scoring: Pavelski and 178 lb. Kucherov.

[oldschoolcalgary]

don't really get this fixation that people have with size.... if Nylander or Keller (or joulevi for that matter) is the BPA at 6, the Flames should pick that player.

People are talking like Calgary only has one pick in the draft. Obviously that is not the case.

I'd much rather the Flames pick an elite skilled forward with the first pick and then augment size with later picks, if they want to gradually increase the size of the prospect base
. Even though you can find elite talent in latter rounds, its definitely harder... i think that its easier finding size in latter rounds than pure skill.

so i hope calgary does pick for skill over size with the 6th pick, because i think they can pick for size with their other first (i hope) or there 2-3 second round picks

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

don't really get this fixation that people have with size.... if Nylander or Keller (or joulevi for that matter) is the BPA at 6, the Flames should pick that player.

People are talking like Calgary only has one pick in the draft. Obviously that is not the case.

I'd much rather the Flames pick an elite skilled forward with the first pick and then augment size with later picks, if they want to gradually increase the size of the prospect base
. Even though you can find elite talent in latter rounds, its definitely harder... i think that its easier finding size in latter rounds than pure skill.

so i hope calgary does pick for skill over size with the 6th pick, because i think they can pick for size with their other first (i hope) or there 2-3 second round picks

Agreed.

If Brown is the BPA, pick Brown.
If Keller is the BPA, pick Keller.
If Sergachyev is the BPA, pick Sergachyev.
If Cameron Morrison is the BPA, trade down twice and pick Cameron Morrison.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

I'd much rather the Flames pick an elite skilled forward with the first pick and then augment size with later picks, if they want to gradually increase the size of the prospect base
. Even though you can find elite talent in latter rounds, its definitely harder... i think that its easier finding size in latter rounds than pure skill.

so i hope calgary does pick for skill over size with the 6th pick, because i think they can pick for size with their other first (i hope) or there 2-3 second round picks

I think it's the reverse actually. It's extremely hard to find big, fast, skilled players outside the top 20 picks. NHL scouts and teams put a premium on those players with the total package. It's easy to find purely skilled smaller players outside the 1st (see Gaudreau, Kucherov, Petan, Mangiapane, etc)

Of course we wouldn't pick size over skill at 6, but why settle for one of those? You can get big and skilled players at the top end of a draft with a strong top end. Why take a small, fast, skilled player when we can take a big, fast, skilled player? No one has answered that question yet.

It's highly unlikely Keller is the BPA at #6 in a draft with a strong top end because he isn't big, skilled and fast and there will be big, fast and skilled players with 1st line/1st pairing upside available.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think it's the reverse actually. It's extremely hard to find big, fast, skilled players outside the first round. It's easy to find purely skilled smaller players outside the 1st (see Gaudreau, Kucherov, Petan, Mangiapane, etc)

Of course we wouldn't pick size over skill at 6, but why settle for one of those? You can get big and skilled players at the top end of a draft with a strong top end.

My question is:

Why settle for "pretty good skill" if there's potentially gamebreaking skill available?

Also If Mangiapane (who has yet to even prove he is as good as Paul Byron) is an example of purely skilled smaller player, then Brett Pollock is an example of a so-called Power Forward available in a later round. And for every Gaudreau/Kucherov there's a Jamie Benn, Milan Lucic, Tyler Toffoli, Brandon Saad.

The Kucherovs and Gaudreaus are the exceptions. Clayton Keller is not an exception, everyone is aware of him, and he's one of the youngest players in this draft class. If were two months younger he'd be eligible for the 2017 draft class and have spent a year tearing up a more common level of play. Know who did that? Patrick Kane, he was one of the oldest players in his draft class, had a great season(inferior to Keller) in USNTDP as a 17 year old with an November 19th birthday (Keller is a 17 year old with a July 29th Birthday) and then moved on to the OHL where he tore it apart and was drafted 1st overall as an 18 year old.

Keller is not a Kucherov or Gaudreau because those guys weren't surprises, they were secrets. They were guys that even our team identified but god greedy on. If Button had the gift of hindsight he would have taken Kucherov over Granlund or Wotherspoon.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

My question is:

Why settle for "pretty good skill" if there's potentially gamebreaking skill available?

We don't have to settle for pretty good skill. There are big forwards and defencemen available with game breaking skill.

And if Keller was Kane he would be ranked higher. When I watch Keller I see a player a step below Kane's level.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

We don't have to settle for pretty good skill. There are big forwards and defencemen available with game breaking skill.

That's your opinion. Not the opinion of people you keep trying to indoctrinate with your size mantra. I'm even skeptical Puljujarvi and Dubois have game breaking skill, despite preferring them over Keller. I'm pretty sure no defenseman in this draft has gamebreaking skill.

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

And if Keller was Kane he would be ranked higher.

If Keller was Kane he wouldn't be eligible for this draft because he'd be 17 not 18 on Sept 15th and plays USNTDP not OHL. Then he would be ranked higher in the 2017 draft, probably in the same convo as Nolan Patrick.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

That's your opinion. Not the opinion of people you keep trying to indoctrinate with your size mantra. I'm even skeptical Puljujarvi and Dubois have game breaking skill, despite preferring them over Keller. I'm pretty sure no defenseman in this draft has gamebreaking skill.

If Keller was Kane he wouldn't be eligible for this draft because he'd be 17 not 18 on Sept 15th and plays USNTDP not OHL.

Not just my opinion. Where is Keller on Bob Mackenzie's list (and thus the lists of 10 real NHL scouts)? Where is Keller on Redline's list? Redline often loves small skilled players, they had Hudler top 10 in his draft year. Real scouts had Kane rated 1st in his draft year and real scouts have Keller as a fringe top 10 pick this year. There's a difference.

Jake Bean has game breaking offensive skill from the backend if that's what you're looking for from this draft. Fabbro has fantastic puck moving and powerplay abilities. There's defencemen of every single type in this draft class.

Keller isn't Kane, if he was he'd be a consensus top 5 pick this year and he isn't.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Agreed.

If Brown is the BPA, pick Brown.
If Keller is the BPA, pick Keller.
If Sergachyev is the BPA, pick Sergachyev.
If Cameron Morrison is the BPA, trade down twice and pick Cameron Morrison.

You have an incredibly glaring flaw in your logic.

No one knows who the best player available is. It's a crap-shoot.

So to suggest if two prospects look very similar in skill and ability - that we take the one that's bigger... I don't see how that's unfair or propaganda to push a size agenda.

No one is suggesting we forsake skill for size, rather that if all things look equal we take the bigger player to add more size.

You seem to counter that with your opinion that a guy like Keller looks like a slam dunk compared to the others. It's a great opinion for you to have, but you keep repeating it ad nauseam like it's a fact you can argue. It isn't.

I don't think it's at all unfair to be of the opinion that if a number of prospects look to be equal, that we look towards those bigger and stronger with skill rather than those who are small and skilled. There's just no need to keep chopping away at this notion as though it's unfair. It's sound logic.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think it's the reverse actually. It's extremely hard to find big, fast, skilled players outside the top 20 picks. NHL scouts and teams put a premium on those players with the total package. It's easy to find purely skilled smaller players outside the 1st (see Gaudreau, Kucherov, Petan, Mangiapane, etc)

Of course we wouldn't pick size over skill at 6, but why settle for one of those? You can get big and skilled players at the top end of a draft with a strong top end. Why take a small, fast, skilled player when we can take a big, fast, skilled player? No one has answered that question yet.

It's highly unlikely Keller is the BPA at #6 in a draft with a strong top end because he isn't big, skilled and fast and there will be big, fast and skilled players with 1st line/1st pairing upside available.

but therein lies the rub... is Brown "big fast and skilled"....? pretty big variance on what scouts see in him. If he's as talented as what people are saying, that amount of difference should not exist.

i don't see nearly the small skill in Brown that i see in Keller/Nylander.... you are giving up skill for size. IF brown had both, he'd be a top 5 on most boards.

[dissentowner]

If Brown was the total package like some here think he is he would be ranked #1.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

If Brown was the total package like some here think he is he would be ranked #1.

Exactly...

so, if Brown was say, 6'2" would he still be ranked where he is? or would he drop down to a 2nd round pick?

Conversely, if Keller was 6'2" would he be making a run at 4 or 5?

Obviously, this isn't the case and both players are the size that they are. But their respective skill sets aren't particularly close.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by GoJetsGo

You seem to counter that with your opinion that a guy like Keller looks like a slam dunk compared to the others. It's a great opinion for you to have, but you keep repeating it ad nauseam like it's a fact you can argue. It isn't.

1) I don't think Keller is a slam dunk. There's risk with everybody past the top 2. Matthews and Laine are the only players in this draft I think are a Slam Dunk

2) Sorry if it's gotten to a point of ad nauseam repetition. I agree my opinion is only my opinion and my intent is not even to sway anyone else's opinion.

I don't think it's at all unfair to be of the opinion that if a number of prospects look to be equal, that we look towards those bigger and stronger with skill rather than those who are small and skilled. There's just no need to keep chopping away at this notion as though it's unfair. It's sound logic.

I don't believe anyone in this thread is arguing anything otherwise, myself included. But FDW has been intent on responding to all discussion of Nylander and Keller as if simply discussing them is blasphemous. It gets grating. Especially when he makes sweeping accusations like "you are just biased towards smaller skilled players because you have (six-foot tall) Jost ahead of Tkachuk".

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

Conversely, if Keller was 6'2" would he be making a run at 4 or 5?

If Keller was 6'2" his name would be Auston Matthews

[Roof-Daddy]

If Keller tops out at 5'10 (which he is now) and 190-195lbs, that's not too small for super fast, shifty, smart and highly skilled player IMO.

I mean yeah, I'd rather have a guy like that be 6'3+ and 220lbs+ but that's not always possible. I don't watch these players enough to make a real informed judgement on them, but if Keller is the better player than Brown, Nylander, etc then I have no issue taking him even if he's a bit smaller.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

but therein lies the rub... is Brown "big fast and skilled"....? pretty big variance on what scouts see in him. If he's as talented as what people are saying, that amount of difference should not exist.

i don't see nearly the small skill in Brown that i see in Keller/Nylander.... you are giving up skill for size. IF brown had both, he'd be a top 5 on most boards.

Brown is big, fast and skilled. Why is there a variance of opinion on him? That's how the draft is. You ask 10 guys at a bar who the hottest girl is and you'll get 10 different answers. Who is right? It's a matter of preference, of opinion. You ask 10 different scouts watching CAN-USA at the U18s who the best prospect is and you are likely to get 10 different answers. There's a scout out there who has Chychrun top 5, there's a scout out there who has Keller top 5, one who has Brown top 5, one who has Fabbro top 5. The variance does not mean these players lack talent. Quite the reverse actually. There are around 20 extremely promising, high upside players at the top end and philosophy and preference is what separates those players in the 4-20 range. Consensus does not exist outside of the very top of drafts.

Brown isn't as purely skilled as Nylander or Keller but his size gives him an advantage in certain areas that they do not possess and that's a skill in itself. Brown is better at protecting the puck, harder to move in front of the net, etc. He uses his size to his advantage and that size is part of his upside. Jagr is not as purely skilled as some smaller players but his size and strength are part of his game and he is one of the most successful forwards of all time.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

Exactly...

so, if Brown was say, 6'2" would he still be ranked where he is? or would he drop down to a 2nd round pick?

He'd be close in ranking at 6'2. With his skill and skating he'd still project to have top line upside.

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

Conversely, if Keller was 6'2" would he be making a run at 4 or 5?

He might be making a run at the top 3 if he was 6'2.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

If Brown was the total package like some here think he is he would be ranked #1.

Agreed.

I would be unbelievably disappointed if we chose to draft a Brown/Keller caliber player over Tkachuk/Dubois/Nylander/Chychrun/Juolevi. That's not to say Brown and Keller aren't good players, but in my opinion there's lots of guys who would be much better options.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Brown is big, fast and skilled. Why is there a variance of opinion on him? That's how the draft is. You ask 10 guys at a bar who the hottest girl is and you'll get 10 different answers. Who is right? It's a matter of preference, of opinion. You ask 10 different scouts watching CAN-USA at the U18s who the best prospect is and you are likely to get 10 different answers. There's a scout out there who has Chychrun top 5, there's a scout out there who has Keller top 5, one who has Brown top 5, one who has Fabbro top 5. The variance does not mean these players lack talent. Quite the reverse actually. There are around 20 extremely promising, high upside players at the top end and philosophy and preference is what separates those players in the 4-20 range. Consensus does not exist outside of the very top of drafts.

Brown isn't as purely skilled as Nylander or Keller but his size gives him an advantage in certain areas that they do not possess and that's a skill in itself. Brown is better at protecting the puck, harder to move in front of the net, etc. He uses his size to his advantage and that size is part of his upside. Jagr is not as purely skilled as some smaller players but his size and strength are part of his game and he is one of the most successful forwards of all time.

well obviously, we'll have to agree to disagree.

but, just to go back to your comment about more skilled players being available in later rounds. Of the top 35 scorers in the regular season, only 4 were 2nd picks (bergeron, L.Erickson, Kucherov and Krecji) Panarin was undrafted and of course, johnny hockey was a 4th rounders.

everyone else? First round.http://www.foxsports.com/nhl/stats?s...=0&sortOrder=0

This wasn't counting DMen as, that wasn't part of the discussion WRT size... for dmen, obviously size makes a difference.

Mackenzie's poll of scouts has Keller at 10 and Brown at 13 FWIW

i mean Kucherov is only 5'11" and he's carrying TB into the Final Four... not saying Keller/Nylander are Kucherov, but their skillset can offset their size.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Not just my opinion. Where is Keller on Bob Mackenzie's list (and thus the lists of 10 real NHL scouts)?

Where was Kyle Connor on Bob MacKenzie's list last year? Where was Connor on Button's list? It's not unheard of for scouts to underscout or underweight a league like the USHL or have difficulty projecting players in USNTDP. That doesn't mean those scouts are wrong because you're talking about cross-league comparisions, and often you're comparing developed 18 year olds to developing 17 year olds.

Real scouts had Kane rated 1st in his draft year and real scouts have Keller as a fringe top 10 pick this year. There's a difference.

Yes, there's a difference. One was more developed, played in an easier-to-project league, and came in a weaker draft year.

Even if Keller is not as talented as Kane, it's a fact that they are not comparable apples-to-apples just the way I still don't believe Dylan Larkin is apples-to-apples comparable to Leon Draisaitl despite being parts of the same draft class and similarily talented.

Jake Bean has game breaking offensive skill from the backend if that's what you're looking for from this draft.

Maybe he does. Yet a defenseman needs to be more than Keith Yandle to be considered a gamebreaker.

Fabbro has fantastic puck moving and powerplay abilities. There's defencemen of every single type in this draft class.

Fabbro may be a gamebreaker. I agree. And he may never be, because the jump from Junior A to NHL is a long one for a defenseman.

Keller isn't Kane, if he was he'd be a consensus top 5 pick this year and he isn't.

You're right, Keller isn't Kane. Keller is a 17 year old who tore up the USNTDP. Kane was an 18 year old who tore up the OHL. The latter is (and should be) valued more highly than the former. But would a 17 year old Kane have had more question marks? Absolutely.

It's a fact that Keller outperformed Kane at the same age (well, 3½ months older) in the same league. That's the only fact that exists.

Anything else is speculation and opinion. That fact doesn't mean he'll ever win an Art Ross, it doesn't mean he'll develop into the most clutch playoff performer since Sakic, none of that. Keller isn't Kane. Keller isn't Gaudreau. Keller isn't Giroux. But he's extremely skilled kid that has outperformed Kane (and Eichel, Kessel, Tkachuk) at ostensibly the same age. As a prospect he has Kane type upside. Being ranked a little bit lower does not mean the upside is less than Kane. That would be true of Marner last year too.