The New American Politics thread

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Hillary is terrible, so is Bernie. They are all terrible, Americans basically are choosing degrees of bad. Bernie has done well but he's still going to be an after thought by September. Bernie loves to scream about the problems without actually providing any solutions. I also am just sick and tired of blaming Wall Street and billionaires for all the problems, yet he seems to be missing one critical piece to that puzzle that sort of blows his argument that it's all Wall Street's fault (it's actually shareholders aka millions of American's faults).

Deflect deflect deflect.

I really don't know why you've decided to not be upfront with us. Saying they are both bad would imply that you've been pretty hard on Hillary (you haven't). Just admit you have some sort of irrational hate for Bernie and be done with it.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by nik-

Because of the super delegates, it was a lot closer in state by state early on.

Closer by raw delagates but not actually a close race at all. Proportional allocation makes things appear close

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...unprecedented/

March 12 is when the average candidate would have dropped.

[nik-]

Yeah. Hillary should have probably stopped losing states to him if she wanted him to drop out. She has now, and he'll be gone soon, but it's pretty embarrassing for her the way that this has gone.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Deflect deflect deflect.

I really don't know why you've decided to not be upfront with us. Saying they are both bad would imply that you've been pretty hard on Hillary (you haven't). Just admit you have some sort of irrational hate for Bernie and be done with it.

Why do I have to be hard on her? She's done more than enough over the past 30 years that doesn't have to be rehashed again and again. She's an opportunistic hack, very calculating and cold, interested in power. She's not that much different than any politician though, she's just more well known and has a grating voice. I don't hate Bernie much at all, some of his supporters are another story, but at some point the anger has to turn into ideas. To date all he's done is gone to the standard lines again and again. For someone who so strongly believe as he does, you'd think he'd be offering more specifics. I also think he's the GOP's dream come true, they can't wait to make him appear to be anti-American, and it likely won't be hard for them to do.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Well it appears that Hillary will get the weakest opponent in the GOP field after all. She is literally running against a clown, a depressing sideshow whose ego could fill a jetliner, a bloviating sexist nincompoop who has managed to run for president for months without presenting anything resembling a vision. His campaign promises range from idiotic to unconstitutional, and he appears to put as much thought into his campaign promises as his Twitter feed.

Yet this is the GOP candidate. I will admit, I never expected he would get even this far; frankly, that makes me a little less confident in my prediction that he will lose this fall (because I thought he would lose in the primary, so I've been wrong about him once already).

But Trump is a truly, truly, TRULY terrible candidate. If Hillary can't beat him, she can't beat anybody.

On the other side, republicans everywhere must feel so depressed. Honestly, I don't know what outcome is worse for them: a Trump loss of McGovern-sequel proportions, with down-ticket results that sweep democrats into firm control of congress... Or a Trump victory, followed by the slow realization that their brand will be forever tarnished by its association with a truly disastrous presidency that sets the conservative movement back decades.

[flylock shox]

It's all been fun and games to this point, but now that it's down to two there's going to be an undercurrent of anxiety running through the rest of the race, at least for me.

I liked Trump when he was just an incredible buffoon offending other buffoons (with a lot of collateral damage admittedly - women, Muslims, Mexicans, to name a few). It was just a sideshow on the way to the main event.

Now he's in the main event, and proven he shouldn't be underestimated nor the electorate overestimated. As much fun as it should be watching him get run over by Clinton, the chance that he might win - might actually win - is going to take away from the fun a bit.

Thank goodness for booze.

[GGG]

What if trump Pivots to the middle. Can he run as a fiscally conservative, protectionist, socially centrist candidate. Basicly say hell appoint centrist justices, won't defund planned parenthood or fight gay marriage because there are more important things to deal with. Mexicans taking our jobs and terrorists. Back off the Muslim ban but still be anti Muslims who aren't American. I think with a well thought out move to the centre he can have a chance. He needs to transition out is the schtick though to appeal to non trump base members.

To we really believe he is the idiot he portrays? I think he's played the republicans for patsies and they ate it up.

[driveway]

Originally Posted by GGG

What if trump Pivots to the middle. Can he run as a fiscally conservative, protectionist, socially centrist candidate. Basicly say hell appoint centrist justices, won't defund planned parenthood or fight gay marriage because there are more important things to deal with. Mexicans taking our jobs and terrorists. Back off the Muslim ban but still be anti Muslims who aren't American. I think with a well thought out move to the centre he can have a chance. He needs to transition out is the schtick though to appeal to non trump base members.

To we really believe he is the idiot he portrays? I think he's played the republicans for patsies and they ate it up.

I don't see any way these two circles can be squared over a long campaign. It's six months to the election. That's six months where Trump will be expected to: outline his policies with at least some depth; defend those policies; and have non-partisan groups like PolitiFact and more importantly the Congressional Budget Office running the numbers of his plans.

I can already see the ad where they run video of Trump saying he's fiscally responsible and then start adding up the costs of his protectionist policies. Any serious fiscal conservative would look at his plans and run the other way screaming.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by GGG

What if trump Pivots to the middle. Can he run as a fiscally conservative, protectionist, socially centrist candidate. Basicly say hell appoint centrist justices, won't defund planned parenthood or fight gay marriage because there are more important things to deal with. Mexicans taking our jobs and terrorists. Back off the Muslim ban but still be anti Muslims who aren't American. I think with a well thought out move to the centre he can have a chance. He needs to transition out is the schtick though to appeal to non trump base members.

To we really believe he is the idiot he portrays? I think he's played the republicans for patsies and they ate it up.

If he can somehow get even 20 more % of woman voters he'll beat Clinton, problem is in order to do that he's going need someone like Matthew McConaughey as his running mate.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by GGG

What if trump Pivots to the middle. Can he run as a fiscally conservative, protectionist, socially centrist candidate. Basicly say hell appoint centrist justices, won't defund planned parenthood or fight gay marriage because there are more important things to deal with. Mexicans taking our jobs and terrorists. Back off the Muslim ban but still be anti Muslims who aren't American. I think with a well thought out move to the centre he can have a chance. He needs to transition out is the schtick though to appeal to non trump base members.

To we really believe he is the idiot he portrays? I think he's played the republicans for patsies and they ate it up.

He can't back off the Muslim ban or his core support is gone. But the beauty for him is his core support is basically 100% about banning Muslims and the wall and don't care about anything else. So he's in a very unique spot where he can run to the left of Bernie on everything else, but keep that core 25% national number. I actually expect him to steal lots from Bernie in an attempt to steal his base as well. A candidate who wants universal health care, ending trade deals, respecting women's reproductive rights....and banning Muslims and Mexicans? For this election cycle, why not?

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Especially Bernie once you start telling people their taxes will be going up to pay for his plans. They generally like his ideas until you get to that part.

That may be, but Bernie is at least being honest about things.

Take, for example, paid family leave.

Hillary's plan is, essentially, to tax the rich to fund the program. Of course, all of the "poor" think that is a great idea.

Bernie's plan is, essentially, to tax everyone to fund the program. Which makes a great deal more sense and reinforces his idea that everyone is in this together.

Hillary, like most politicians, continues to appeal to those who simply want others to pay for their needs and wants---which does nothing to address the looming debt crisis.

Originally Posted by GGG

The concept that Bernie has been in this race is ridiculous. She isn't clinging to early leads. She's mopped the floor with him. Sanders was done on Super Tuesday. Had he come back from that point it would have been the greatest comeback in a democratic primary ever. The media has artificially created a contest to get ratings.

At no point in this race did Bernie ever have a chance.

Meh. Take away the minority vote (namely Black) and Hillary isn't in the lead.

Hillary appeals to the historic core of the Democratic Party--who would vote for Bernie anyway, if he were the nominee.

Whereas Bernie appeals to voters who very well might not vote for Hillary--or any other Democratic nominee.

Originally Posted by driveway

I can already see the ad where they run video of Trump saying he's fiscally responsible and then start adding up the costs of his protectionist policies. Any serious fiscal conservative would look at his plans and run the other way screaming.

And who would those "serious fiscal conservatives" instead vote for? Gary Johnson?

They most certainly aren't going to vote for Hillary---or, at least, they'd never publically admit to it.

[ResAlien]

You do know minorities are about 40% of the population, right? And a larger percentage than that are Democrats. But we're going to ignore them because BernieMath?

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by HockeyIlliterate

Meh. Take away the minority vote (namely Black) and Hillary isn't in the lead.

But why would you do that?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by HockeyIlliterate

And who would those "serious fiscal conservatives" instead vote for? Gary Johnson?

They most certainly aren't going to vote for Hillary---or, at least, they'd never publically admit to it.

Actually there was a poll (I will try to find it and post a link if I can) that suggested around 13% of Cruz' primary voters intend to vote for Clinton in the fall now that it is clear Trump will be the nominee. That isn't a huge number (it's a subset of a subset) but given the polarization of politics in the US, it's frankly astonishing.

By contrast, I highly doubt very many Sanders supporters will vote for Trump. Sanders has broad support among younger voters, a demographic within which Trump is incredibly unpopular.

Trump's big challenge is not beating Clinton--she isn't an especially strong candidate. His challenge is to broaden his appeal beyond his base of uneducated white male voters. So far, even though he is the presumptive nominee, he has failed to do that. Unless he can get votes from Latinos and women, the demographic math just isn't there for him.

With that said, I've predicted his demise before and been wrong, so....

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

In all seriousness, Bernie has, I think, made his point. At this point he does more harm than good by staying in. Trump will be trying to repair his image and pivot to the middle in preparation for the Fall and Hillary needs to be doing the same, but instead is stuck in a battle with the political equivalent of the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

You do know minorities are about 40% of the population, right?

Where do you get that number?

This link: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762156.html shows that Blacks made up (in 2010) 12.2% of the population, and Latinos made up 16.3%. Combined, that's about 28-29%, and what is typically meant by the term "minority" in the voting context.

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

But why would you do that?

Because without that group, Hillary wouldn't have won the southern states. And that group would, by and large, vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is. So I don't give a lot of weight to their vote or to the winner thereof.

In short--if the Democrats want to grow their base, Hillary isn't their candidate.

[octothorp]

Well, I do look forward to seeing what comes of the Clinton campaign's opposition research claim that only about 20% of what they had dug up on Trump has come out. If that's true, they should be able to release a new Trump mini-scandal every week between here and the election. The question is whether there is any scandal that's actually big enough to cut through all the noise. A constant barrage of little Trump vulgarities and transgressions keeps him from pivoting to any sort of 'presidential' mode, but maybe the Dems have something bigger.

[Flash Walken]

For many republican candidates, the only thing worse than a Clinton victory is a victory by a GOP candidate that isn't them.

[Vulcan]

If you think Bernie staying in the race is fool hardy how about Kasich. California here we come.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politi...race-ted-cruz/

[Fuzz]

Calling it now, Trump is gonna win the election.