[News] Flames to pick 6th in 2016 draft

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I think size is a benefit to a point. At certain sizes, I think it becomes a detriment.

There aren't many 6'6"+ forwards playing in the top 6 for teams in this league. And I don't really think a player like Bjugstad is worth a 6th overall pick.

Neither would scouts probably. Anybody who has him top 10 probably thinks his upside is higher than Bjugstad's. The fact that there aren't a lot of 6'6 forwards who play top 6 show what a rare commodity Brown could be, it doesn't prove he is incapable of playing there.

How would his size be a detriment? Don't understand that logic. He's very coordinated and agile for a player his size. His size and strength will help with puck protection and faceoffs.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I don't see any similarity. What makes you want to make the comparison?

Brown is a 6'6 playmaking centre

Ritchie is a 6'2 powerforward winger who loves to throw hits

Different positions, different styles

Large player initially slotted much lower who becomes center (no pun intended) of debate as to whether or not the Flames should pick him over potentially more talented if not more documented prospect(s). Wasn't actually comparing their styles, I should have made that clear.

[dustygoon]

Subtle but funny tidbit in that edmonton sun article....

take one of the three highest-rated junior defencemen — Russian Mikail Sergachev (Windsor), Finn Olli Juolevi (London) or U.S. born Jakob Chychrun (Sarnia). All three shoot left, however.

Like Edmonton should be discounting a solid blue liner that they desperately need because he isn't a right shot?!

[automaton 3]

fwiw, I believe that Treliving mentioned that having a blueline balanced with LH and RH shooters is important to him. Maybe the Oilers are coming around to the same.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

fwiw, I believe that Treliving mentioned that having a blueline balanced with LH and RH shooters is important to him. Maybe the Oilers are coming around to the same.

Yes but passing on players who fits your needs or who may arguably be the best player available simply because they shoot the wrong way would be stupid.

It's like it would be stupid of us to dismiss Dubois and Tkachuk just because they are left shooters. Sure we'd love a right hand shot. But McLeod/Nylander just aren't BPA compared to Dubois/Tkachuk.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

I want to re-visit this 2 ledges of 3 theory... Really curious about that 2nd ledge. Dubois and Tkachuk seem no-brainers, and I really don't believe Nylander is the other one. Is it Brown, if you look at the Button connection and Brown being so high on Craig's list? Is it a given that they/we like Dubois and Tkachuk?

I'm wondering as well. Is there something about Nylander that stands out to you in a negative sense? I haven't seen the majority of these kids outside of their highlight packages, but Nylander looks to have outstanding skills and hockey sense from the videos.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Yes but passing on players who fits your needs or who may arguably be the best player available simply because they shoot the wrong way would be stupid.

It's like it would be stupid of us to dismiss Dubois and Tkachuk just because they are left shooters. Sure we'd love a right hand shot. But McLeod/Nylander just aren't BPA compared to Dubois/Tkachuk.

For sure.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Yes but passing on players who fits your needs or who may arguably be the best player available simply because they shoot the wrong way would be stupid.

It's like it would be stupid of us to dismiss Dubois and Tkachuk just because they are left shooters. Sure we'd love a right hand shot. But McLeod/Nylander just aren't BPA compared to Dubois/Tkachuk.

Especially because we need a winger for Bennett to play with even more than we need a RW for Monahan/Gaudreau.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

I want to re-visit this 2 ledges of 3 theory... Really curious about that 2nd ledge. Dubois and Tkachuk seem no-brainers, and I really don't believe Nylander is the other one. Is it Brown, if you look at the Button connection and Brown being so high on Craig's list? Is it a given that they/we like Dubois and Tkachuk?

I think Dubois/Tkachuk check almost all the boxes if not all the boxes that the Flames like. Combine that with them looking like consensus top 6 picks and its hard to imagine them not in that range on the Flames list.

Brown I think is a possibility due to his huge upside (pun intended.)

Nylander IMO is very doubtful to be in our top 6 due to his style of play. I think purely skilled finesse wingers aren't rated as highly by the Flames as some other teams might have them. I think this is due to the fact that wing is the least important position and that Nylander plays a finesse style instead of a hard driving, relentless style, powerful style. I think he's still a top prospect but the top 15-20 are close enough that those reasons would have him outside our top 6 or top 8.

I think its fairly likely that the Flames have 1 d-man is that top 6. There are teams who have d-men top 5 even. Chychrun is the most likely guy to be top 6 on the Flames IMO because he has all the tools to be a franchise d-man. Yes he didn't put it all together this year and mildly disappointed the scouts expectations for him. But does that mean he no longer has immense upside? No it doesn't. The Flames may look at Chychrun and see a guy that just needs time to learn and develop. I will note that Kylington was a guy who disappointed last year but the Flames still saw huge upside in him where other teams got scared. I think there are some similarities between Chychrun's draft season and Kylington's draft season last year. Both started the year as potential top picks and both disappointed the scouts expectations. I think the Flames are a team that tries to look at the big picture with players and I think may be one of the teams that won't forgot how dominant Chychrun was at age 16.

I think Sergachev is another possibility as I think he has top pairing potential. Good size, strength, skating, shot, passing, puck rushing. There's nothing he doesn't do well. He's physically mature.

Juolevi I find a bit of a mystery. He has arguably the best hockey sense of the d-men and I think the Flames really value high hockey sense. But I'm not sure his potential overall is as high as Chychrun/Sergachev's but he may very well be the safest bet of the bunch to turn out into a solid NHLer.

Now have we heard talk of an elite top 5-6 by anybody else? Here's Redline Report (one of my favourite scouting resources) from February:
"Let’s focus on the positive for now. The top tier is probably a two-man group of Auston Matthews (who we all knew heading into the year would be in this discussion) and Patrik Laine (who has seemingly overcome his maturity and coachability issues from previous years to let his wondrous natural gifts take over).

It can certainly be argued that any of the three members of Red Line’s second tier — Jesse Puljujärvi, Matthew Tkachuk, and Jakob Chychrun — should be included in with that top pair. Each has been impressive enough at times to be considered among the elite.

But we think there’s a clear break after those top five down to the next tier, which runs about a dozen deep — from No. 6 to No. 17"

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...epth/80668094/

Now fast forward a few months and here's their latest rankings:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...sson/83404180/

So they've moved Dubois up into the top 5 and Chychrun dropped down. But did he lose that potential from February that had him as a 2nd tier player just outside the top tier? Perhaps they overreacted to his mediocre U18s and the Calgary Flames won't?

I think the most informed guess about who that 2nd tier is would be Dubois, Tkachuk and Chychrun. Those who like Chychrun think he has massive potential. Some have their doubts but I think if we have a 2nd tier from 4-6 that he could be in it. IMO with Treliving as a former defensemen I think they may be one of the teams that still believe's in Chychrun's toolbox.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

I'm wondering as well. Is there something about Nylander that stands out to you in a negative sense? I haven't seen the majority of these kids outside of their highlight packages, but Nylander looks to have outstanding skills and hockey sense from the videos.

His skills and hockey sense aren't in question. He has top 5 skills.

The negatives IMO only revolve around his inconsistency, size and his style of play. Purely skilled finesse wingers sometimes disappear when they are checked by big, strong, defensive players. The playoffs are tighter and harder checking. So philosophically how many players can we have who may disappear when the going gets tough?

I think it's most informative to look back through Flames history for comparable types of players. Now if Nylander has trouble fighting through checking and becomes more of a perimeter player at the NHL level what would his comparable be in Flames history? IMO it would be Kristian Huselius. Huselius is actually one of the most skilled forwards I've ever seen play for the Flames. His stick handling, passing and shooting were all top notch. But because he was slight and didn't like to fight through checks he was a perimeter and power play player. So even though he had some of the best pure skill I've ever seen on the Flames he was far, far from the most impactful forward I've ever seen on the Flames. Is Huselius dragging you to a Cup on his back? Nope. Is he worth a ton in trade? Nope. I think those who don't like the idea of taking Nylander are worried there's a decent chance he'll develop into that type of NHLer. A perimeter super skilled guy that put up points and wows you but doesn't really help you be a contender. If he's the next Alex Semin or Alexei Kovalev is that who you want at #6 in a draft with a strong top end?

The other side of the equation is that if he doesn't shy away at the NHL level maybe his upside is Nikita Kucherov.

It all depends how the Flames scouts think of him. If even a few of them are worried about whether he'll be a perimeter player or be able to be physically dominated out of a game then that's enough to drop him out of the top 6 or 8.

[IgiTang]

Can someone please clarify for me how the actual lottery system works? Let me explain my confusion.

Listening to Jets Lunch, Jonas Siegel of the Canadian press says there are over a thousand balls and toronto had 200 of them giving the leafs a 20% chance.

Boston only had 10 balls.

The lottery order starts from 14 and Boston is picked right away.

How is that possible when Boston had less than 1% of the balls in the bin.

Would it not have increased the odds that Toronto would have been selected to pick #14 based on odds?

I'm even more confused now than ever about the lottery.

[RockOnRoberts]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Can someone please clarify for me how the actual lottery system works? Let me explain my confusion.

Listening to Jets Lunch, Jonas Siegel of the Canadian press says there are over a thousand balls and toronto had 200 of them giving the leafs a 20% chance.

Boston only had 10 balls.

The lottery order starts from 14 and Boston is picked right away.

How is that possible when Boston had less than 1% of the balls in the bin.

Would it not have increased the odds that Toronto would have been selected to pick #14 based on odds?

I'm even more confused now than ever about the lottery.

They reveal in reverse for dramatic effect.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Can someone please clarify for me how the actual lottery system works? Let me explain my confusion.

Listening to Jets Lunch, Jonas Siegel of the Canadian press says there are over a thousand balls and toronto had 200 of them giving the leafs a 20% chance.

Boston only had 10 balls.

The lottery order starts from 14 and Boston is picked right away.

How is that possible when Boston had less than 1% of the balls in the bin.

Would it not have increased the odds that Toronto would have been selected to pick #14 based on odds?

I'm even more confused now than ever about the lottery.

There are 14 balls numbered 1-14. That gives you 1000 combinations of 4 balls. The Bruins had 10 combinations.

They draw #1 first behind the scenes by pulling 4 balls and that combination will correspond to one team (It was the Leafs)
They then draw #2 behind the scenes by pulling 4 balls and assuming they didn't pull another TOR combination (which would force a redraw) then that draw was WPG
They tend draw #3 behind the scenes by pulling 4 balls and assuming they didn't pull another TOR or WPG combination (which would force a redraw) then that draw was CBJ

They then put the cards in order and move to the TV set where they reveal the cards in reverse order.

So you didn't actually see the draft lottery take place, that behind the scenes video will be released soon I would imagine. Here's the video for last year if you're curious, only change was that they had to do the draw 3 times.

http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=810726

[Demzy84]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Can someone please clarify for me how the actual lottery system works? Let me explain my confusion.

Listening to Jets Lunch, Jonas Siegel of the Canadian press says there are over a thousand balls and toronto had 200 of them giving the leafs a 20% chance.

Boston only had 10 balls.

The lottery order starts from 14 and Boston is picked right away.

How is that possible when Boston had less than 1% of the balls in the bin.

Would it not have increased the odds that Toronto would have been selected to pick #14 based on odds?

I'm even more confused now than ever about the lottery.

Each team had a combination of 4 numbers. Toronto had 200 different combinations and Boston only had 10

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Can someone please clarify for me how the actual lottery system works? Let me explain my confusion.

Listening to Jets Lunch, Jonas Siegel of the Canadian press says there are over a thousand balls and toronto had 200 of them giving the leafs a 20% chance.

Boston only had 10 balls.

The lottery order starts from 14 and Boston is picked right away.

How is that possible when Boston had less than 1% of the balls in the bin.

Would it not have increased the odds that Toronto would have been selected to pick #14 based on odds?

I'm even more confused now than ever about the lottery.

No. There are 14 balls that get put into a machine and 4 get drawn out at 10 second intervals. Each team has a set number of combinations that would have seen them winners. Toronto had the best odds, so had the most combinations that would have seen them win. Edmonton had the next most. Then Vancouver and so on.

The process from last year shows how its done:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LylmmdP9SDI

[Erick Estrada]

If the Oilers foolishly pick a defensemen then the Canucks jump all over Dubois. I personally see the Oilers going with Dubois (if they retain the pick) and Canucks taking Tkachuk. I think Chychrun and Joulevi are poor value at 4 & 5 and can't see those teams picking them at those spots.

[yourbestfriend]

If they keep the picks, I could totally see one of edm/van taking a dman

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

His skills and hockey sense aren't in question. He has top 5 skills.

The negatives IMO only revolve around his inconsistency, size and his style of play. Purely skilled finesse wingers sometimes disappear when they are checked by big, strong, defensive players. The playoffs are tighter and harder checking. So philosophically how many players can we have who may disappear when the going gets tough?

I think it's most informative to look back through Flames history for comparable types of players. Now if Nylander has trouble fighting through checking and becomes more of a perimeter player at the NHL level what would his comparable be in Flames history? IMO it would be Kristian Huselius. Huselius is actually one of the most skilled forwards I've ever seen play for the Flames. His stick handling, passing and shooting were all top notch. But because he was slight and didn't like to fight through checks he was a perimeter and power play player. So even though he had some of the best pure skill I've ever seen on the Flames he was far, far from the most impactful forward I've ever seen on the Flames. Is Huselius dragging you to a Cup on his back? Nope. Is he worth a ton in trade? Nope. I think those who don't like the idea of taking Nylander are worried there's a decent chance he'll develop into that type of NHLer. A perimeter super skilled guy that put up points and wows you but doesn't really help you be a contender. If he's the next Alex Semin or Alexei Kovalev is that who you want at #6 in a draft with a strong top end?

The other side of the equation is that if he doesn't shy away at the NHL level maybe his upside is Nikita Kucherov.

It all depends how the Flames scouts think of him. If even a few of them are worried about whether he'll be a perimeter player or be able to be physically dominated out of a game then that's enough to drop him out of the top 6 or 8.

I have never seen Alexander Nylander not fight through checks, not try to win pucks along the boards, or not go to the dirty areas to score goals. He is nothing like Huselius. Are you sure you are not thinking of his brother? That is a much closer description of Willie than Alex.

[dissentowner]

Also, for the record out of all the guys ranked in the top 10 the one I want the Flames to avoid at all costs is Chychrun. The more I have seen of him more the more I see a guy with an outstanding set of tools and absolutely no tool box.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

There are 14 balls numbered 1-14. That gives you 1000 combinations of 4 balls. The Bruins had 10 combinations.

They draw #1 first behind the scenes by pulling 4 balls and that combination will correspond to one team (It was the Leafs)
They then draw #2 behind the scenes by pulling 4 balls and assuming they didn't pull another TOR combination (which would force a redraw) then that draw was WPG
They tend draw #3 behind the scenes by pulling 4 balls and assuming they didn't pull another TOR or WPG combination (which would force a redraw) then that draw was CBJ

They then put the cards in order and move to the TV set where they reveal the cards in reverse order.

So you didn't actually see the draft lottery take place, that behind the scenes video will be released soon I would imagine. Here's the video for last year if you're curious, only change was that they had to do the draw 3 times.

http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=810726

Just an aside, they had video of the process and the draws from saturday on during the intermission of the blues-stars game yesterday.